analyse coréee du sud

Asia

Lesinforma,onsetanalysesdiffuséesparLeCercled'Inves,ssementdel'IESEGnecons,tuentqu'uneaideàladécisionpourlesinves,sseurs.LaresponsabilitéduCercled'Inves,ssementdel'IESEGnepeutêtreretenuedirectementouindirectementsuite à l'u,lisa,on des informa,ons et analyses par les lecteurs. Il est recommandé à toute personne non aver,e deconsulter un conseiller professionnel avant tout inves,ssement. Ces informa,ons indica,ves ne cons,tuent en aucunemanièreuneincita,onàunequelconqueopéra,onboursière.

Mainindicators

GDPGrowthrate:0.7%Unemploymentrate: 3.7%Infla5onrate: 1.3%Interestrate: 1.25%Balanceoftrade: 7187USDMillionGovernmentDebttoGDP: 35.12%

%ofchangeKRW/USD: 0.309%%ofchangeCNY/KRW: -0.308%Interbankrate: 1.48%CPI 111Index-Points

hHp://contact02658.wix.com/cercleinves5ssement

Analyst–AmélieCLEMENT-LAMIRAULT

SouthKoreaAnalysis

11/23/16

Cercled’invesJssementdel’IESEGSchoolofManagement

Macroecon

omic

Analyst

News:

PoliJc :OnemillionofKoreanci5zenmarchedon the12thofNovember inorder toask the resigna5onof theParkGeun-Hye,PresidenteofSouthKorea.TheSouthKoreanPresidenteisheldresponsibleofcorrup5on.Choi-Soon-Sil,aclosest friend of the Presidente, would have used her rela5onship with Park Geun-Hye to embezzle money fromChaebols.Onthe19thofNovember,therewasanotherprotestmarchwithhalfamillionpeopleinSeoul.EducaJon : On the 17th of November, the South Koreanworldwoke up later. In fact, college student passed theirexamstoenterintheUniversity.TheseexamsledtoopenprivatefirmsandeventheSouthKoreanstockexchangeat10o’clock.Eachyear,theseexamsrevivethedebateabouttheeffec5venessofthesesmeasures.Althoughstudentsgetthebestmarksintheinterna5onalrankings,thelevelofdepressionandsuicideisalsoveryhigh.

USelecJon :Duringhiselec5oncampaignTrumpdeclaredunfair thefreemovementofgoodsbetweenSouthKoreaandUnitedStatesofAmerica.Furthermore,SouthKoreaisafraidtoopenislegalservicetoamericanlawoffice.AllthisdecisionsaregoingtobenegociatedbetweenDonaldTrumpandParkGeun-Hye.

Graph1:GDPinUSdollar

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

23/11/2015 23/04/2016 23/09/2016

KRW/EUR KRW/USD

Graph2:Currencies

Announcementofthelast2weeks

Last Forecast PreviousNovember8th2016Unemploymentrate 3.7% 3.8% 4%November11th2016InterestRateDecision 1.25% 1.25% 1.25%November13th2016ExportPricesYoY -1.6% -7.6% -8.3%ImportPricesYoY -0.6% -6.5% -7.7%November17th2016PPIYoY -0.2% -0.1% -1.1%PPIMoM 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%

Source:TradingEconomics

Source:BloombergSource:Bloomberg

Source:TradingEconomics

98%

99%

100%

101%

102%

103%

01/01/2016 01/04/2016 01/07/2016

GDPSouthKorea GDPUSA

Source:LeMonde

Lesinforma,onsetanalysesdiffuséesparLeCercled'Inves,ssementdel'IESEGnecons,tuentqu'uneaideàladécisionpourlesinves,sseurs.LaresponsabilitéduCercled'Inves,ssementdel'IESEGnepeutêtreretenuedirectementouindirectementsuite à l'u,lisa,on des informa,ons et analyses par les lecteurs. Il est recommandé à toute personne non aver,e deconsulter un conseiller professionnel avant tout inves,ssement. Ces informa,ons indica,ves ne cons,tuent en aucunemanièreuneincita,onàunequelconqueopéra,onboursière. Cercled’invesJssementdel’IESEGSchoolofManagement

Asia

hHp://contact02658.wix.com/cercleinves5ssement

Analyst–AmélieCLEMENT-LAMIRAULT

SOUTHKOREAANALYSIS

11/23/16

Macroecon

omic

Analyst

StockMarketKRX100 3929.66KRWKTOP30 6325.61KRW

8084889296100104108112

23/11/2015 23/04/2016 23/09/2016

KRX100Index(in%)KTOP30Index(in%)

Varia5on in 100 base demonstrate asignificant drop at the end of September onbothIndex.ThisdecreasecanbeexplainedbytheSamsungscandal. In fact,allGalaxyNote7werecalledback

BondMarket2-YearGovernmentBond +2.1%5-YearGovernmentBond +6.7%20-YearGovernmentBond +9.5%

For the first 5me the country is going toinvest in very long maturity bond (50Y) inordertosolvetheissueofageingpopula5on.Thedropinthe20Ybondmightbeduetothecorrup5onmaHer.

Announcementtofollowthenext2weeks

Last ForecastNovember24th2016ConsumerConfidence 101.9 100November29th2016IndustrialProduc5onYoY -2%RetailSalesYoY 0.5%ManufacturingProduc5onYoY -2.2%December1st2016BalanceofTrade $7.2B $10.9BGDPGrowthRateYoYFinal 3.3% 2.8%NikkeiManufacturingPMI 48December2nd2016ForeignExchangeReserves $375.17B

Source:Bloomberg

Source:Bloomberg

Source:TradingEconomics

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

9/1/16 10/1/16

5YBond 2YBond 20YBond

Source:Bloomberg

IstheTrumppolicygoingtoaffecttheSouthKoreaneconomy?Ishegoingtohaveapolicyofcoali5onorapolicyagainstthecurrentagreementsuchasthefreemovement?Alltheseques5onsaregoingtobeansweredinthenextfewweeks.

ThisisabadyearforSamsung.Firstly,thecompanywasamongthefirmsaffectedbythecorrup5onscandalwithMrsChoi.Secondly,thelauchofthe“SamsungGalaxyNote7”wasbroughttoahaltduetoburningtroubles.InOctoberthemarketcapitaliza5ondecreasedfrom1.703to1.553within5days.

Samsungscandal