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5/25/2018 B i 2-Ph n t ch TCDN _gui.ppt
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5/25/2018 B i 2-Ph n t ch TCDN _gui.ppt
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Tng quan Phng php phn tch Ni dung phn tch
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Khi nim Mc tiu Trnh t phn tch ti chnh
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Phn tch TC l qu trnh tp hp thng tin, xem xt nh gitnh hnh TC hin hnh ca doanh nghip vi thi k qua.Thng qua rt ra nhng mt mnh v hot ng tichnh cng nh hiu qu ti chnh ca doanh nghip, rt ranhng im yu cng nh d on nhng tim nng, nhngri ro trong hot ng kinh doanh, hot ng ti chnh trongtng laigip ngi s dng thng tin a ra cc quyt nhti chnh, quyt nh qun l ph hp.
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Cho php nh gi khi qut tnh hnh hot ng KD, hotng ti chnh.
L cn c ra quyt nh qun l v d kin cho k hoch ti
chnh, k hoch kinh doanh trong k ti.
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ivichdoanh nghipv nh quntrdoanh nghip: Phn tch mikha cnhvtnh hnh TCDN: Phn tch cbn, pt kthut, pt khnngthanh ton, kn
sinh li, kn hotng(kn tora ? doanh thu), kn cn i
vn(xem ccuvnc cn ihay khng?) ivinh ut: ivingn hng, chnkhc C cho vay hay khng? (Khonvay thnh cng) Khnngchi tr ivinh cung cphng ha, dchv ivicc cquan qunl cptrn
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Bo co ti chnh ca DN:
Bng cn i k ton
Bo co kt qu hot ng kinh doanh
Bo co luchuyn tin t
Thuyt minh bo co ti chnh
Ti liu khc v s sch k ton
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Thng tin Phn tch KtquQuytnh
Thu thpthng tinPhn tch ti chnh sdngmingunthng tin c khnngl giiv thuytminh thctrnghotngti chnh
cadoanh nghip,phcvcho qu trnh donti chnh.Nhngthng tin bao gmtnhngthng tin nibnnhngthng tin bn ngoi doanh nghip, tthng tin slngnthng tin gi tr.Nhngthng tin ugip cho
nh phn tch c thara cnhngnhnxt, ktlunthch ng.
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Thng tin bn ngoi:Cnlu thu thpthng tin lin quan n: Thctrngcannkinh t, chikinh doanh, chnh sch
thu, li sut Thng tin vngnh kinh doanh, tnh trngcng ngh, th
phn, thng tin tithcnhtranh Thng tin php l, kinh tividoanh nghip Thng tin bn trong: l ngunthng tin trong qu trnh qun
l, sliuthngk, thng tin vlao ng, khnngpht trin
snphm
,iu
trath
trng
, thng tinv
chi ph
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Trong giai on ny, ngi s dng thng tin cc gc nghin cu khc nhau m c phng php x l thng tinkhc nhau nhm phc v mc tiu phn tch t ra. Nhvy, x l thng tin l qu trnh sp xp cc thng tin theonhng mc tiu nht nh nhm tnh ton, so snh, gii thch,nh gi, xc nh nguyn nhn ca cc kt qu t cnhm phc v cho qu trnh d on v quyt nh.
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Mc tiu ca phn tch ti chnh l a ra cc quyt nh tichnh. i vi ch doanh nghip: quyt nh lin quan n hot ng
ca doanh nghip l tng trng, ti a ha li nhun
i vi ngi cho vay v u t: quyt nh lin quan n chovay v u t. i vi c quan cp trn l quyt nh qun l. ..
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Phng php phn tchl mt h thng cc cng c v binphp nhm nh gi tnh hnh ti chnh ca doanh nghip. Vl thuyt c nhiu phng php phn tch ti chnh doanhnghip nhng trn thc t ngi ta s dng phng php sosnh,t l v phn tch Dupont
Phng php so snh Phng php t l Phng php phn tch Dupont
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iu kin p dng: Cc ch tiu phi m bo tnh cht c th so snh c
(phi thng nht v khng gian, ni dung kinh t, nv tnh ton v tnh cht).
Xc nh c gc so snh: Gc so snh c chn lgc v mt thi gian hoc khng gian. K phn tchc la chn l k bo co hoc k k hoch, gi trso snh c th l tuyt i hoc tng i hoc s bnhqun.
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Time-seriesSo snh gia s thc hin k ny v k trc Cross-sectional So snh gia s liu ca doanh nghip vi
cc dn trong cng ngnh
Trend (horizontal analysis) So snh theo chiu dc
Common-size (vertical analysis) So snh theo chiu ngang
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Time-seriesSo snh gia s thc hin k ny v k trc cho thy r xu hng thay i v TCDN, nh gi s tng
trng hay tht li trong hot ng kinh doanh. So snh gia s thc hin vi s k hoch thy cc mc
phn u, hon thnh k hoch ca doanh nghip. Cross-sectional So snh gia s liu ca doanh nghip vi s
liu trung bnh ca ngnh, ca cc doanh nghip khc, so vicc tiu chun, nh mc c ban hnh nh gi tnhhnh ti chnh ca doanh nghip mnh tt hay xu, c haycha c.
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So snh theo chiu ngang Trend (horizontal analysis) thyc s thay i c v s lng tng i v tuyt i qua ccnin k ton lin tip.
So snh theo chiu dcCommon-size (Vertical analysis) xem xt t trng ca tng ch tiu so vi tng th.
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i vi Bo co kt qu kinh doanh: tnh t l % ca tngkhon mc so vi doanh thu. i vi Bng cn i k ton: tnh t l % ca tng khon
mc so vi tng ti sn.
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Bo co kt qukinh doanhNm hin hnh Nm trc Nm hin hnh Nm trc
Doanh th 15,000,000 12,500,000 100% 100%
Gi vn h (9,200,000) (7,400,000) -61% -59%
Li nhu 5,800,000 5,100,000 39% 41%Chi ph b (3,000,000) (2,500,000) -20% -20%Chi ph m (300,000) (150,000) -2% -1%
Chi ph nh (800,000) (800,000) -5% -6%
Khu hao (200,000) (200,000) -1% -2%Chi ph ti (285,715) (257,143) -2% -2%
Li nhu 1,214,285 1,192,857 8% 10%Thuthu (364,286) (357,857) -2% -3%
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Xem xt mi khon mc ca bo co nh l 1 t l % cachnh khon mc ca nm gc.
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Nm hin hnh Nm trc Nm hin hnh m trDoanh thu 15,000,000 12,500,000 120% 100%
Gi vn hng bn (9,200,000) (7,400,000) 124% 100%Li nhun gp 5,800,000 5,100,000 114% 100%Chi ph bn hng (3,000,000) (2,500,000) 120% 100%
Chi ph marketing (300,000) (150,000) 200% 100%
Chi ph nhn vin (800,000) (800,000) 100% 100%
Khu hao (200,000) (200,000) 100% 100%Chi ph ti chnh (285,715) (257,143) 111% 100%
Li nhun trc thu 1,214,285 1,192,857 102% 100%Thuthu nhp (364,286) (357,857) 102% 100%Li nhun sau thu 849,999 835,000 102% 100%
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Nhn xt: u im: So snh c nhiu loi ch tiu ty theo mc ch ca
vic nghin cu. Nhc im: Cn quan tm ti cc iu kin so snh th thng tin
mi c ngha.
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Phng php ny da trn ngha chun mc cc t lca i lng ti chnh trong quan h ti chnh. S thayi cc t l l s thay i cc i lng ti chnh.
Cc t l ti chnh c phn thnh cc nhm t l c
trng, phn nh ni dung c bn theo ni dung hotng ca doanh nghip. Nhm t l v kh nng thanh ton Nhm t l v c cu vn v ngun vn
Nhm t l v nng lc hot ng kinh doanh Nhm t l v kh nng sinh li
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Tch ch tiu tng hp phn nh kh nng sinh li ca doanhnghip thnh 1 tch s cc ch tiu c mi quan h nhn quvi nhau t c th nh gi tc ng tng ch tiu nhn ch tiu tng hp.
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ROA = LNST/VKD =LNST/DTT * DTT/VKD
Phnnh khnngsinh licadanh mcti sntrong danh mc, chobit1ngti snc khnngtora cbao nhiu ngLNST.
LNST/DTT (chtiu doanh litiu thsnphm)
Chtiuphnnh trong 1 ngdoanh thu thunc bao nhiu ngLNST.
Phnnh khnngqunl chi ph cadoanh nghip. DTT/VKD
Chobit1 ngti sncadoanh nghipc khnngtora bao nhiu ngdoanh thu thun(DTT).
Phnnh khnnghotngcadoanh nghip(hiusutsdngti snca
doanh nghip). ROE = LNST/DTT* DTT/VKD*VKD/VCSH
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Phn tch ti chnh davo mcchbao gm: +Phn tch nhu cungunvncacng ty +Phn tch tnh hnh ti chnh v khnngsinh licacng ty +Phn tch riro kinh doanh cacng ty Phn tch ti chnh davo loiphn tch:
+ Phn tch ts(vkhnngthanh ton, nbyti chnh, tsthanh ton li vay, tshiuquhotng, khnngsinh li,tsgi trthtrng)
+ Phn tch so snh Phn tch xu hng: davo tsti chnh bnh qun ca
ton ngnh so vitscadoanh nghipbitdoanh nghip
angtnunhmmbotnh khch quan. Phn tch ccu Phn tch chs
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2.3.1. Phn tch khi qut tnh hnh ti chnh Phn tch kt cu ti sn v ngun vn ca doanh nghip Phn tch cc ch tiu ti chnh trung gian v cui cng trn
bo co kt qu kinh doanh
Phn tch din bin ngun vn v s dng vn Phn tch tnh hnh m bo ngun vn cho hot ng kinh
doanh
2.3.2. Phn tch cc t l ti chnh ch yu
2.3.3 Phn tch bo co ngn lu (dng tin) 2.3.4 Phn tch mi quan h tng tc gia cc h s qua
phng trnh Dupont
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Mc ch:
Nhmc ci nhn tngquan vnhngsthay i,
binngtrn nhngmtchyunh:
Sbinngvti snv ngunvnso vik
trc.
Xem xt mtcch khi qut ktcuvti snv
ngunvncadoanh nghip.
Xem xt 1 cch khi qut sbinngca
doanh thu, chi ph v linhunso viktrc.
Ti liu:
* Bngcn ik
ton
* Bo co ktquat
hotngkinh
doanh
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Bng cn i k ton:
L mtbo co ti chnh tnghpphnnh mtcchtngqut tonbti snhinc caDN theo hai cchnhgi l ti snv ngunhnh thnh ti sntithi
imlpbo co. Cc chtiu BCKT cphnnh dihnh thi
gi trv theo nguyn tccn i.
Phnti sn: :
Phnnh gi trti snhinc tithiimlpbo
co Phnngunvn:
Phnnh ngunhnh thnh cc loiti sncaDN,
Ti liu:
Bngcn ikton
qua mtsklin tip
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Trnh by Bng cn i mt pha, t xc nh t trng ccti sn trong tng Ti sn ca DN v t trng cc ngun vntrong tng Ngun vn. Trn c s so snh vi cc mctrung bnh ca ngnh v so snh gia cc k k ton vinhauthy c c cu vn ca DN hp l? C cu ti
sn ca DN c hn ch g khng?
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S tin %Ti sn 2980 3670 690 23.15%I. TSNH
1. Tin 250 180 -70 -28.00%2. Cc khon u t CK ngn hn 150 130 -20 -13.33%
3. Cc khon phi thu ngn hn 270 450 180 66.67%4. Hng tn kho 490 520 30 6.12%5. TSL khc 40 20 -20 -50.00%II. TSDH
1. TSC-Nguyn gi TSC 1720 2540 820 47.67%
-Gi tr hao mn ly k -370 -580 -210 56.76%2. Cc khon u t TC di hn 170 240 70 41.18%3. Chi ph XDCB DD 210 160 -50 -23.81%
4. K qu, k cc di hn 50 10 -40 -80.00%
Chnh lchu
nmCui kCh tiu
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S tin %Ngun vn 2980 3670 690 23.15%I. N phi tr 2020 2560 540 26.73%1. N ngn hn 680 1150 470 69.12%-Vay ngn hn 410 670 260 63.41%-Phi tr cho ngi bn 170 350 180 105.88%
-Phi np ngn sch NN 80 70 -10 -12.50%-Phi tr cng nhn vin 20 60 40 200.00%2. N di hn 40 20 -20 -50.00%II. Ngun vn CSH 960 1110 150 15.63%1. Ngun vn qu 890 1090 200 22.47%
-Ngun vn kinh doanh 520 660 140 26.92%
-Qu u t pht trin 160 220 60 37.50%-LN cha chia 210 210 0 0.00%2. Ngun kinh ph khc 70 20 -50 -71.43%
Ch tiu u nm Cui kChnh lch
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BCKQHKD l mt bn bo co ti chnh tng
hp phn nh tnh hnh v kt qu hot
ng kinh doanh theo tng loi hot ng
S liu trn BCKQKD phn nh thng tin v tnh
hnh v kt qu s dng cc tim nng v vn, lao
ng, k thut, kinh nghim qun l ca 1 dn.
BCKQKD phn nh c 4 ni dung c bn: doanh
thu, gi vn, chi ph bn hng, chi ph qun l v li
nhun.
Ti liu:
Bo co ktqu
hotngkinh
doanh caDN qua
cc klin tip.
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DN s tin hnh tnh ton t trng cc khon chi ph hot ng
kinh doanh phn nh trn Bo co kt qu kinh doanh xemchim ?% trong doanh thu thun, t so snh vi mc trung
bnh ca ngnh hoc xem din bin gia cc k k ton thy c kh nng qun l chi ph ca DN.
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Trlicu hi:
Vnlytu?
Sdngvo vicg?
Vicsdngc hpl
hay khng?itngcnphn tch
Mcch:
Vpha cng ty
Nh ut
Ngicho vay
Trnh t:Bc1:
Tnghpsthay itrn cc khonmccaBCKT
Bc2:
aktquvatnghpvobngphn tch dinbinngunvnv sdngvn
Bc3: Tnh ttrngcatngkhonmctrong
bngphn tch
Bc4: Phn tch, nhgi tngqut v trlihai
cu hitra. Pht hinvichuy ngv sdng
tinbthpl iuchnhkpthi.
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Tnghpsthay icacc khonmctrong BCKT giahai thiiml unmv cuik. Mimtsthay icatngkhonmctrong BCKT th cspxpvo 1 ctldinbinngunvnv sdngvntheo cch thcsau:
* Tngngunvnv gimti sndinbinngunvn(trlicho cu hilyvntu?)
* Tngti snv gimngunvnsdngvn(trlicho cu hivncsdngvo vicg?)
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S dng vn
-Tng ti sn- Gim ngun vn
Din bin ngun vn
-Tng ngun vn- Gim ti sn
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Ch tiu u nm Cui kDin
bin NVS dng vn
Ti sn 3000 4300I. TSNH 1600 21001. Tin 300 400 1002. Cc khon u t CK ngn hn 200 300 100
3. Cc khon phi thu ngn hn 600 6004. Hng tn kho 400 600 2005. TSL khc 100 200 100II. TSDH 1400 22001. TSC 1400 2200-Nguyn gi TSC 1600 2200 600-Gi tr hao mn ly k -400 -500 1002. Chi ph XDCB 200 500 300
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Ch tiu u nm Cui k Din binNV S dngvnNgun vn 3000 4300
I. N phi tr 1800 28001. N ngn hn 1000 1200
-Vay ngn hn 500 700 200-N khch hng 300 400 100-Phi np NSNN 100 100-Phi tr CNV 100 0 1002. N di hn 800 1600
-Vay di hn 800 1600 800II. Ngun vn CSH 1200 1500Ngun vn CSH 1200 1500 300
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Stin Ttrng (%) Stin Ttrng (%)1. Trch khu hao TSC 100 6.67% 1. Dtrtin mt 100 6.67%
2. Tng vay ngn hn 200 13.33% 2. u tCK NH 100 6.67%
3. Chim dng vn KH 100 6.67% 3. Dtrhng tn kho 200 13.33%4. Tng vn di hn 800 53.33% 4. u tTSL khc 100 6.67%
5. Tng ngun vn KD 300 20.00% 5. Tng TSC 600 40.00%
6. Tng chi ph XDCB 300 20.00%
7. Trncn bCNV 100 6.67%Tng 1500 100% 1500 100%
Din bin NVNi dung Ni dung
Sdng vn
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NWC=Net Working capital= Vnlungrng= Ti snngnhn -Nngnhn
Hoc=Ngundi hnNdi hn
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TSNH Ngun ngn hnNWC < 0
TSDH Ngun di hn
Khnngthanh ton caDN khng ttv TSNH khng scthanh ton (png) nngnhn.Ngundi hnkhng ti trcho TSDH, doanh nghipphisdngmtphntngunngnhnl ngunc tnh nnhthphnti trcho TSDH.
Khnngsinh licaDN cnng cao so vitrnghpsdngngundi hnti trcho TSDH v DN sdngngunNH c chi ph thphn(nguyn tcnhiriro vlinhun).
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Kh nng thanh ton ca DN tt hn do TSNH sc thanhton cho N ngn hn. TSDH c ti tr 1 cch n nh bingun di hn.
Kh nng sinh li b nh hng so vi trng hp s dng ttc ngun ngn NH ti tr cho TSNH v DN s dng mt
phn ngun DH c gi tr chnh bng NWC ti tr choTSNH nhng ngun DH c chi ph cao hn so vi ngun NH.
TSNH Nngn hnNWC> 0
TSDH NDH+ NVCSH
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Ly mc tiu NWC=0 lm mc tiu trong qun l. C th: Nu NWC >0: tm cch gii phng bt hng tn kho (bn
nhanh, thc y bn hng) hoc gim u t ngn hn hoctng cng vay NH thay th cho vay DH t a NWCv 0.
Nu NWC
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Ni dung phn tch thng qua cc
H s ti chnh:
H s v kh nng thanh ton
H s v kt cu ti sn v ngun
vn
H s v hiu sut hot ng
H s v kh nng sinh li
Mc ch:
Giithch thm cc miquan hvtichnh giacc khon mc, cc ngunlcqua chr hnthctrngti
chnh caDN.Phngphp phn tch:
So snh giaDN vihstrung bnhngnh hocDN inhnh hoctxydngbngkinh nghim.
Lu:Cc chsphic sngnhtv nghakinh t,phngphp tnh vc thphiiuchnh.
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Bc1:Xc nhnghsti chnh cnphn tch Bc2: Thu thpthng tin tnh hsti chnh Bc3: Giithch nghacacc hsti chnh tnh ton Bc4: nhgi hsti chnh (so snh) vatnh ton (cao,
thphay ph hp) V d: So snh sutsinh licati sn(ROA) nm2010
v 2009 xem thay inhthno? tngln hay gimi? Bc5: Rt ra ktlunvtnh hnh ti chnh cadoanh
nghipv phn tch nguyn nhn
V d: ROA06>ROA05do cng ty khai thc cng sutmy mc thitbavo snxutlm tnghiuqu Bc6: xutgiiphp cithin
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Nhm h s v kh nng thanh ton Nhm h s phn nh c cu ngun vn v c cu ti
sn Nhm h s v hiu sut hot ng Nhm h s phn nh kh nng sinh li Nhm h s gi tr th trng
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Cho bit 1 ng n ngn hn c m bo thanh ton bngbao nhiu ng TSNH?
Quy tc ngn tay ci:- H s 2:1 c th c chp nhn-
H s < 1:1 Khng chp nhn- H s > 4:1: Cn xc nh nguyn nhn?C th d tr hng tn kho qu nhiu? (i vi doanh nghip sn
xut hng ha)Tin ti ngn hng c th c u t trong ngn hn thu li
nhun cao?
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T s: TSL thng bao gm tin, cc chng khon ngn hnd chuyn nhng (tng ng tin), cc khon phi thu,hng tn kho
Mu s: N ngn hn thng bao gm cc khon vay ngnhn NHTM v cc t chc tn dng khc, cc khon phi tr
nh cung cp, phi tr phi np khc H s ny phn nh kh nng thanh ton cc khon n ngn
hn bng ti sn ngn hn. H s cng cao th kh nng thanh ton cng cao, c ngha tnh
hnh ti chnh ngy cng tt.
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Cn so snh vi h s thanh ton hin thi c tnh chtchun, c tnh chttrung bnh ca cc doanh nghip khc cng ngnh, hoc so snh k ny vih s ca k trc rt ra xu hng v kh nng thanh ton n ngn hnca doanh nghip.
Cn thn trng trong trng hp h s ny qu cao. C th vic s dng tisn cha chc c hiu qu, xy ra tnh trng thnh phm, hng ha ca
doanh nghip b ng, khng tiu th c, hoc n phi thu qu ln hayc tnh trng d tr NVL qu mc, b h hng, mt phm cht.
HS < 1chng t ton b TS ngn hn c hnh thnh t vay n ngn hnhoc l tp trung ch yu khu d tr cho SXs mt cn i gia khuSX v khu tiu th. Vay n nhiu th tn tht , mt cn i trong phn
phi vn, hiu qu thp. HS
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Ni n nhng khon n n hn v qu hn cn phi thanhton ngay. Do vy, ngoi tin v cc khon tng ng tin(u t ngn hn) th hng ha thnh phm dng thanh ton
phi l nhng hng ha, thnh phm c ch n chp nhntr thay tin.
H s kh nng thanh ton nhanh 1:doanh nghip c hoctha kh nng thanh ton, < 1 khng kh nng thanh tonhay kh nng thanh ton b hn ch.
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Hsny cxc nhtbo co ktqukinh doanh v cgil
hstrang triti chnh. Li tinvayphitrtrong kl mtkhonchi ph cnh, ctr
vo trckhi tnh thuTNDN, nguntrli vay l linhungpsau khi triCP qunl doanh nghipv CP bn hng. Hsnycholngkhnngthanh ton di h,phnnh khnngtrang triCP v CP ti chnhphignh chu.
Hsny cho thymckin thanh ton cc khonli tinvayphitrgip cho chnthycmcan ton cacc khontincho vay, linhunthotngkinh doanh c tha, hay khng bpli vay.
HS >1: li thotngkinh doanh thab pli vaydoanh nghipc thtrcgcv lidoanh nghipddng vay cvnt
khnngsinh li. HS
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Cc doanh nghip lun thay i t trng cc loi vn theo ktcu ti u. Nhng kt cu ny lun b ph v do tnh hnh utnghin cu c cu NV, c cu TS, t sut u t vo TSs cung cp cho nh qun tr mt ci nhn tng qut hn v sca doanh nghip.
Thng qua vic phn tch c cu NV cho php nh gi tngqut vic t chc NV ca doanh nghip, mc c lp v tichnh ca doanh nghip.
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Hsn =Tngn
Tngngunvn
Hsvnchshu =Vnchshu
Tngngunvn
Hsn= 1 - Hsvnchshu
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Tsuttti trTSC =Ngunvnchshu
TSC v utdi hn
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H s gi trn thu nhp P/E
P/E cho bit gi tr th trng ca c phiu gp bao nhiu lnthu nhp trn 1 c phiu .
N ch ra vic cc nh u t sn lng tr bao nhiu cho 1ng li nhun nhn c. H s P/E cao i vi DN c trin vng tng trng cao (gi
s cc nhn t khc khng thay i).
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T s gi tr th trng/gi tr ghi s (M/B=Market toBook value)
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Ch tiu Cng ty TB ngnh So snh Nhn xt1. H s kh nng thanh ton-H s kh nng thanh ton tng qut-H s kh nng thanh ton hin hnh-H s kh nng thanh ton nhanh
-H s kh nng thanh ton tc thi2. H s c cu ti sn v ngun vn-H s n-H s vn ch s hu
-T l u t vo TSL-T l u t vo TSC-T sut t ti tr TSC
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Ch tiu Cng ty TB ngnh So snh Nhn xt3. H s hiu sut hot ng-Vng quay hng tn kho-Vng quay khon phi thu-Vng quay vn lu ng
-Vng quay ton b vn-Hiu sut s dng VC-K thu tin trung bnh4. H s sinh liT sut LNTT/Doanh thu thunT sut LNST/Doanh thu thun
T sut LNTT v li vay/Ti snT sut LNST/Vn kinh doanhT sut LNST/Vn ch s hu
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Bo co luchuyntintl bo co ti chnh phnnh ccdng tindinra trong DN trong mtthiknhtnh, cho
bitsluchuyntintdinra nhthno vinhngnidung cbnnhluchuyntintvmthotngkinhdoanh, hotngti chnh v hotngkhc.
C 2phngphp lp:1. Trctip2. Gin tip
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LU CHUYN TIN TTHOT NG KINH DOANHPhng php gin tip Phng php trc tip
Li nhun sau thu Doanh thu bng tin
iu chnh cc khon Cng (+) Nthng mi thuKhu haoDphngTi sn lu ng (Gim th cng, tng th tr)Phi thuHng tn kho
Cc khon phi trCc khon bt thng khc (tin pht)
Tr(-) Tin trnh cung cpTr(-) Tin trcng nhn vinTr(-) Thuv li tr Cc khon mc khc
Tng phi trCng Gim phi trTr
LU CHUYN TIN TTHOT NG U T- Mua ti sn v thit b+ Khon thu do bn TSC+ Li tqu trnh u t
LU CHUYN TIN TTHOT NG TI CHNH+ Tng vn, vay vn-Thanh ton tin vay-Trctc v li gp vn lin doanh
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Bo co ngn lu quan trngnh th no? Nguyn nhn thay i trong tn qu tin mt Chra miquan hgiaLinhunrng v Ngn lu rng Gii thch ngun tin mt c to rabngcch no v
c chi tiu nh th no trong k kinh doanh qua; nh gi kh nng tr n ng hnbng tin;
Nhngthng tin ny srthuch cho cc nhngngi raquyt nh (nh qun tr, nh cho vay, cc c ng, v.v) trongvic d on nhngdng tin trong tng lai.
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Cung cp thm nhiu thng tin rt quan trng m bng cn ik ton v bo co thu nhp khngth. BI V:
Bng cn i k ton ch th hin gi tr ti snv ngunhnh thnh ti sn ti mt ngy c th (tnh thi im)
Lm sao bit c trong k kinh doanh, doanh nghip chimua sm (thu bn thanh l) bao nhiu i vi tisn c nh?
Lm sao bit c trong k kinh doanh, doanh nghip tngi vay (tr n vay) bao nhiu?
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Bo co thu nhp c thit lp theo nguyntc k ton thct pht sinh (accrual), ch khng phi theo tin mt (cash).
Ti sao c li m khng c tin, v ngc li? Th no l hin tng li ph sn hay li gi,l tht? Lm sao gii thch s thay i (tng haygim) trong tn qu
tin mt gia cui k v u k.
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Bo co ngn lu cho thy tnh hnh hotng kinh doanhmt cch tng qut cacng ty qua cc giai on pht trinkhc nhau
nh gi kh nng tr n ng hn D bo dng ngn lu tng lai
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Chng trnh ging dy kinh t Fulbright
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Chngtrnh gingdykinh tFulbright
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Chngtrnh gingdykinh tFulbright
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Chngtrnh gingdykinh tFulbright
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Chngtrnh gingdykinh tFulbright
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Chngtrnh gingdykinh tFulbright
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Mc tin cy ca s liu trong cc bo co ti chnh, nu s liu khng
tin cy dn n nhng kt lun rt ra t phn tch s b sai lch. Khng c y thng tin v cc t s bnh qun ca ngnh lm c s
so snh.
S liu trong qu kh (c th khng phn nh c tng lai)
Phng php k ton khng thch hp
Lm pht
Thay i trong phng php k ton
S xut hin mt s khon mc bt thng trong nm ti chnh v d mtmt do ha hon
Thay i v qun l S thay i ca nn kinh t, khng hong ngnh ngh
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TS N-2 N-1 N NV N-2 N-1 N
I.TSNH 8,800 25,580 35,500 I.N 17,200 19,520 37,4201. Tin 1,800 4,580 - 1.NNH 4,200 7,820 27,020
2.Phi thu 5,000 18,000 32,000 -Phi trcho NB 4,000 5,000 6,500
3.Hng tn kho 2,000 3,000 3,500 -Phi np NSNN 200 2,820 2,540
II.TSDH 39,000 33,000 48,600 -Vay ngn hn 17,980
1.TSCHH 20,000 15,000 31,600 2.Ndi hn 13,000 11,700 10,400-Nguyn gi 25,000 25,000 47,000 -Vay di hn 13,000 11,700 10,400
-Hao mn ly k (5,000) (10,000) (15,400) II.NVCSH 30,600 39,060 46,680
2.TSCVH 1.Vn gp 30,000 30,000 30,000
-Nguyn gi 20,000 20,000 20,000 2.Li nhun cha P 600 9,060 1,668
-Hao mn ly k (1,000) (2,000) (3,000)Tng 47,800 58,580 84,100 47,800 58,580 84,100
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Lng Lng Lng1.DTT vbn hng v cung cp DV 75,000 100,000 148,000
2.Gi vn hng bn 52,300 65,500 91,400
3.Li nhun gp vbn hng v cc D 22,700 34,500 56,600
4.Chi ph ti chnh 1,300 1,170 1,040
5.CPBH v QLDN 20,600 21,600 43,500
6.LN thun tH KD 800 11,730 12,060
7.ThuTNDN tHKD 200 2,932.5 3,045
8.LNST tHKD 600 8,797.5 9,045
n-2 n-1 n
Chtiu
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Lng Ttrng Lng Ttrng Lng Ttrng1.DTT vbn hng v cung cp DV 75,000 100% 100,000 100% 148,000 100%
2.Gi vn hng bn 52,300 69.73% 65,500 65.50% 91,400 61.76%
3.Li nhun gp vbn hng v cc DV 22,700 30.27% 34,500 34.50% 56,600 38.24%
4.Chi ph ti chnh 1,300 1.73% 1,170 1.17% 1,040 0.70%
5.CPBH v QLDN 20,600 27.47% 21,600 21.60% 43,500 29.39%
6.LN thun tH KD 800 1.07% 11,730 11.73% 12,060 8.15%
7.ThuTNDN tHKD 200 0.27% 2,932.5 2.93% 3,045 2.06%8.LNST tHKD 600 0.80% 8,797.5 8.80% 9,045 6.11%
n-2 n-1 nChtiu
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Lng Ttrng Lng Ttrng Lng Ttrng Lng Ttrng1.Tin 2780 15.38% 4580 14.59%2.Phi thu 13000 71.90% 14000 44.59%
3.Hng tn kho 1000 5.53% 500 1.59%4.TSDH 6000 33.19% 15600 49.68%
5.Nngn hn 3620 20.02% 19200 61.15%6.Ndi hn 1300 7.19% 1300 4.14%
7.Vn CSH 8460 46.79% 7620 24.27%18080 100.00% 18080 100.00% 31400 100.00% 31400 100.00%
Ngun Sdng ngunN-1 N
Chtiu Ngun Sdng ngun
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N so vi N-1, ngun v s dng ngun u tng ln chng t doanh nghip y
mnh hot ng sn xut kinh doanh v dng tin lun chuyn nhiu hn. N-1: Ngun: Chim t trng ln nht ca ngun l li nhun gi li. Chim t
trng th 2 l khu hao TSC, gim TS di hn. Chim th 3 l cc khon thanhton, phi tr, phi np, khon tr hon thanh ton.
V s dng ngun:Doanh nghip tp trung cho khch hng tr hon thanh ton,cho khch hng thanh ton chm hoc cung cp tn dng thng mi cho khchhng chim 71.9%. DN s dng tr n gc di hn. Chim t trng th 3 l hngtn kho, doanh nghip u t vo hng tn kho. Nhn xt: Tng hai ngun tin tli nhun gi li trong k v khu hao ch va cho dn cung cp TDTM cho KHv tr n gc di hn. Vn t ra l khon phi thu tng ln chim t trng quln trong s dng ngun tin ca DN. Nu nhu cu v hng ha, dch v ca DN
trn th trng thp, vic tiu th kh khn th iu ny c th chp nhn c. Nuvic tiu th hgn ha khng gp kh khn->DN phi tm cc bin php nh chitkhu thanh ton v thay i chnh sch TDTM theo hng hp l hn gim cckhon phi thu.
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Nm N:
+Ngun: mc d li nhun gi li ca DN vn c ln c th chp nhnc v mt lng. Nu xt v t trng th c s gim ng k so vi (N-1)v N ngun tin ch yu to ra t n ngn hn (61.2% ch yu l vay ngnhn).
+S dng ngun:
Vi ngun tin huy ng c, DN s dng ch yu mua sm TSChu hnh lm tng ti sn di hn, ngun ny chim 49.7%.
Khon phi thu: c gim i v t trng v s dng ngun nhng v tuyti li tng lniu ny th hin chnh sch TDTM ca DN vn chac ci thin ng k.
Ngun ch yu to ra tin cho DN l ngun ngn hn chim 61.2%, nhngs dng ngun li tp trung ch yu vo TS di hn-l nhng ti sn ctnh lng kmDN s gp kh khn trong thanh ton nu nh TSDH lic ti tr bi ngun ngn hn. Vn ny phi c nh gi thm vvn lu ng rng v nhu cu vn lu ng rng.
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NWC=TSNH-N NH=Ngun DH-TSDH
Nhu cu NWC=TSNH (ko k tin)-N NH
Nhu cu NWC l nhu cu v ngun di hn ti tr cho TSNH (khng ktin)
Vn lu ng rng chnh l ngun p ng nhu cu NWC. Nu NWCp ng nhu cu VL rng (va ).
NWC=ngun di hn dn s dng ti tr cho TSNH th ngn qu ca DN
bng 0 Nu NWC> nhu cu Vn lu ng rng th phn vt trn s l ngn
qu (tin) ca dn. Nu NWC khng p ng nhu cu VLR th ngnqu
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Ch
tiu N-2 N-1 N
1.Ndi hn 13,000 11,700 10,400
2. Vn CSH 30,600 39,060 46,680
3.TS di hn 39,000 33,000 48,600
NWC 4,600 17,760 8,480
1.Phi thu 5,000 18,000 32,0002.Hng tn kho 2,000 3,000 3,500
3.Nngn hn 4,200 7,820 27,020
Nhu cu NWC 2,800 13,180 8,480Ngn qu 1,800 4,580 -
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Nhn xt:
Vn lu ng rng cc nm >0 th hin: TSNH p ng nNH v TSDH c ti tr 1 cch vng chc bi ngun DH(khng c s chnh lch qu mc). Tuy nhin, nm N, NWCch va p ng nhu cu NWC (ngn qu=0), DN cn
phi c bin php tng NWC hoc gim nhu cu NWC ngn qu ca DN >0.
Bin php c th: DN nhanh chng thu hi cc khon phi thunh chit khu thanh ton, bin php h tr thu n khc nhanh chng chuyn cc KPT thnh tin.
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Lng Ttrng Lng Ttrng Lng Ttrng1.DTT vbn hng v cung cp DV 75,000 100% 100,000 100% 148,000 100%
2.Gi vn hng bn 52,300 69.73% 65,500 65.50% 91,400 61.76%
3.Li nhun gp vbn hng v cc DV 22,700 30.27% 34,500 34.50% 56,600 38.24%
4.Chi ph ti chnh 1,300 1.73% 1,170 1.17% 1,040 0.70%
5.CPBH v QLDN 20,600 27.47% 21,600 21.60% 43,500 29.39%
6.LN thun tH KD 800 1.07% 11,730 11.73% 12,060 8.15%
7.ThuTNDN tHKD 200 0.27% 2,932.5 2.93% 3,045 2.06%8.LNST tHKD 600 0.80% 8,797.5 8.80% 9,045 6.11%
n-2 n-1 nChtiu
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Doanh thu thun (DTT) ca DN qua cc nm tng v lng
tuyt i v tc tng trng ngy cng cao th hin DNhot ng ngy cng tt hn v kh nng tiu th sn phmhng ha, dch v ca DN ngy cng cao.
Gi vn hng bn (GVHB) cc nm xt v lng tuyt i
tng ln theo s tng ln ca DTT. Nu xt v t trng chimngy cng nh trong DTT. iu ny lm cho t trng linhun gp trong DTT ngy cng cao (ch tiu li nhun bin).
Chi ph qun l v bn hng mc cao nm (n-2) v gim
xung nm (n-1) xt v t trng nhng li tng ln mc caonht trong nm n.
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T trng GVHB v chi ph bn hng v QLDN u mc caotrong nm (n-2) lm cho t trng Li nhun thun v hotng KD ca DN nm (n-2) mc thp nht trong nm (n-2).
nm n, mc d li nhun gp mc cao nht trong cc nm
nhng do t trng chi ph bn hng v QLDN qu cao->ttrng LN thun t hot ng KD thp hn so vi nm (n-1).DN cn phi xc nh nhng nguyn nhn lm cho chi ph bnhng v qun l DN cao trong nm (n-2) cng nh s tng vttrong nm (n) t c bin php thch hp gim chi ph bnhng v QLDN.
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