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Project Management in Practice ISVFourth Edition
Prepared byScott M. Shafer,Updated by
William E. Matthews andThomas G. Roberts,
William Paterson University
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
4-1
Mantel, Meredith, Shafer, and Stton
John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
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The Use of !d"ets
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Budgets are plans for allocatin" or"ani#ationalreso!rces to pro$ect activities
forecastin" re%!ired reso!rces, %!antities needed,when needed, and costs
!d"ets help tie pro$ect to overall or"ani#ational
ob$ectives!d"ets can be !sed as a tool by !pper mana"ement
to monitor and "!ide pro$ects.
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Top&'own !d"etin"
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
4-!
ased on collective $!d"ments ande(periences of top and middle mana"ers
)verall pro$ect cost estimated byestimatin" the costs of ma$or tas*s
+dvanta"es
acc!racy of estimatin" overall b!d"et errors in f!ndin" small tas*s need not be
individ!ally identified
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ottom&Up !d"etin"
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Wor* rea*down Str!ct!re -WS identifieselemental tas*s
Those responsible for e(ec!tin" these tas*sestimate reso!rce re%!irements
+dvanta"e
more acc!rate in the detailed tas*s
'isadvanta"e ris* of overloo*in" tas*s
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Wor* Element /ostin"
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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'etermine reso!rce re%!irements and thencosts for each tas*
fi(ed costs -e."., materials labor time and labor rate
e%!ipment time and e%!ipment rate
overhead "eneral, sales, and administrative -GS0+
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The 1mpact of !d"et /!tson Type 2 and Type 3 Pro$ect 4ife /ycles
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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+ctivity 5ers!s Pro"ram !d"etin"
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
4-$
Activityoriented b!d"etin" are basedon historical data acc!m!lated thro!"h
an activity&based acco!ntin" system e(penses assi"ned to basic b!d"et lines
WithProgramb!d"ets, each pro$ect is
divided by tas* and time period allows for a""re"ation across pro$ects
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+cco!ntability
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
4-%
Each person who has a task to do must ownthe design and execution of that task and
must be held responsible for its timelachie!ement"#
$ccountabilit is the twin of empowerment"#
Jim McCarthy, Dynamics of Software Development , Microsoft Press,1995
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1mprovin" Estimates and 6orecasts
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
4-
6orms
4earnin" c!rvesTrac*in" si"nals
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6orms
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
4-10
+ form for "atherin" data on pro$ect reso!rce needs mi"htincl!de7
people 8 mana"ers, technical and non&technical
money
materials 8 facilities, e%!ipment, tools, space, etc.
special services+nd mi"ht identify7
person to contact how many9m!ch needed when needed whether available
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4earnin" /!rves
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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r
n nTT
1=
where
Tn' the ti(e re)ired to co(plete the nthnit
T1= the ti(e re)ired to co(plete the first nit
r' log*learning rate+log*2+
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Trac*in" Si"nals
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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+ trac*in" si"nal n!mber can reveal-tell if there is a systematic bias in costand other estimates : and whether thebias is positive or ne"ative
y observin" their own errors a pro$ect
mana"er can learn to ma*e !nbiasedestimates
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)ther 6actors 1nfl!encin" the S!ccess of aPro$ect
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
4-1!
/han"es in reso!rce prices estimate rate of price chan"e individ!ally for inp!ts
that have si"nificant impact on costs
Waste and spoila"eTeam member t!rnover costsUsin" ;mythical man&months< by 6red roo*s.
)r"ani#ation climate=!st bad l!c*
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Estimate of Pro$ect /ost & Made at Pro$ect Start
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Three asic /a!ses for/han"e in Pro$ects and Their !d"ets
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
4-1"
Errors made by cost estimator as to how toachieve tas*s.
>ew *nowled"e abo!t the nat!re of theperformance "oal or settin".
+ mandate : a new law or standard, etc.
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?andlin" /han"es
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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+ccept a ne"ative chan"e and ta*e a loss on thepro$ect -least preferred
Prepare for chan"e ahead of time : incl!deprovisions in the ori"inal contract that allow forrene"otiated price and sched!le for client&orderedchan"es in performance -best practice
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@ey Elements of Ris* Mana"ement
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
4-1$
Ris* mana"ement plannin"
Ris* identification A!alitative ris* analysis
A!antitative ris* analysis
Ris* response plannin" Ris* monitorin" and control
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6ail!re Mode and Effect +nalysis -6ME+
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
4-1%
4ist ways pro$ect mi"ht potentially fail
Eval!ate severity -S of each fail!re
;2< represents fail!re with no effect and ;2B< representsvery severe and ha#ardo!s fail!re
Estimate li*elihood -4 of each fail!reocc!rrin"
;2< indicatin" that fail!re is rather remote and not li*elyto occ!r and ;2B< indicatin" that fail!re is almost certainto occ!r
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Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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6ail!re Mode and Effect +nalysis -6ME+
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)ther +pproaches to Ris* Mana"ement
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Game theory +ss!me that competitors and the environment areyo!r enemies
Select a co!rse of action that minimi#es thema(im!m harm
E(pected val!e
The val!e of the o!tcome m!ltiplied by theprobability of the o!tcome occ!rrin"
Sim!lation
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/opyri"ht
Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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%opright 2 11 &ohn 'ile ( Sons) Inc"
+ll ri"hts reserved. Reprod!ction or translation of this wor* beyond thatpermitted in Section 22C of the 2DC United States /opyri"ht +ctwitho!t e(press permission of the copyri"ht owner is !nlawf!l.Re%!est for f!rther information sho!ld be addressed to the
Permissions 'epartment, =ohn Wiley 0 Sons, 1nc. The p!rchaser mayma*e bac*&!p copies for his9her own !se only and not for distrib!tionor resale. The P!blisher ass!mes no responsibility for errors,omissions, or dama"es, ca!sed by the !se of these pro"rams or from the!se of the information herein.
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