Dr. Hans R. Herren President Millennium Institute Founder & Chairman of Biovision Foundation...

Dr. Hans R. HerrenPresident Millennium InstituteFounder & Chairman of Biovision Foundation hh@millennium-institute.org

How Green can we make the “Green Economy”?

Shaping the Future We Want

2013年度科技论文

Overview

1. Green Economy?

2. Transforming agriculture and the Food

System: from brown to green, why and

3. How: challenges and solutions for the

needed transformation of global

agriculture and food systems

4. Who and when

Green Economy?

• A green economy is one that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities

• It can be thought of as one which is low carbon, resource efficient and socially inclusive

• In a green economy, growth in income and employment should be driven by public and private investments that reduce carbon emissions and pollution, enhance energy and resource efficiency, and prevent the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services

UNEP 2011

Green Economy?Recognizes the Value of, and Invests in, Natural

Capital Is Central to Poverty Alleviation Creates Jobs and Enhances Social EquitySubstitutes Renewable Energy and Low-

carbon Technologies for Fossil FuelsPromotes Enhanced Resource and Energy EfficiencyDelivers More Sustainable Urban Living and Low-

carbon Mobility Grows Faster than a Brown Economy over Time,

while Maintaining and Restoring Natural Capital

Green Economy: How does it relate to sustainable agriculture and food systems?

Brown Green

Infoprojects

FCP: FarmerCommunication

• 842 million undernourished – 1.5 billion obese – 300 million diabetes type 2 cases, etc. => health problem

• The industrial food system uses 10 kcal to produce 1 (empty)

=> energy problem• The conventional food system is a major part of the

=>climate change problem

• Soil degradation, water shortages, biodiversity loss underlie food insecurity => natural resource problem

• Industrial agriculture has emptied the rural areas instead of providing quality jobs => social problems

Business as usual is not an option!

Brown agriculture and food systems as part of the problems

David Tilman et al. Science 2001

The main problems (too much external / non renewable inputs)

All agricultural soils show signs of degradation

World map of severity of land degradation – GLASOD (FAO 2000)

Understanding the consequences: Soil degradation

….new problems –urbanization

Understanding the consequences: Land and biodiversity loss

Grain Unctad 2011

The main problems (too much GHG)

Source: Stern Review

Understanding the consequences: Climate change

Understanding the consequences: CC and water / temperature stresses

-50% -15%0%

+35%+15%2080

The main problems (too much GHG, less nutrients)

Gaiasoft Company Presentation | © Gaiasoft

2008

Reduced capacity of ecosystems to buffer from extreme events through loss of wetlands, forests, mangroves

The main consequences (Natural and human systems failing under pressure)

The main problems (too much production, too much waste)

….new problems

The main problems (too much production, too many externalities)

• A fundamental shift in Agricultural Knowledge Science and Technology and => agri-food system policies (UNSG), => institutions => capacity development => investments (UNCTAD)

• Paradigm change: transition to sustainable / ecological agriculture addressing the multi-functionality and resilience needs of small-scale and family farmers (eco-intensification, vs smart)

• Need to use a systemic and holistic approach / National multistakeholder assessments (IAASTD)

20

The main solutions to go “Green”

The 3 +1 dimensions of sustainable development

Sustainable& Resilient

viable

livableequitable

EnvironmentEconomic

SocialGovernance

SustainableUn-sustainable

Low

pro

ducti

vity

Hig

h p

rodu

ctivi

tyThe main solutions:1. Paradigm shift / all inclusive

…..and also changing the unsustainable/unhealthy consumption patterns (paradigm shift at home)

Barilla, 2011

Global Warming

Energy Sector

Human Population

Food Production

Fresh Water

Migration

Health Catastrophes

Land Loss & Flooding

PlantCalories

MeatCalories

PlantConsumption

MeatConsumption

MeatProduction

PlantProduction

SoilCapacity Soil Nutient

ConsumptionSoil NutrientProductioin

Plant Calories forMeat Production

S

S

HumanPopulation

HumanBirths

HumanDeaths

Plant Calories forHuman Use

S

S

Calories perCapita

O

S

Life SustainingCalories per Capita

CalorieGapHabitat

Conversion

Acres inAgriculture

O

S

S

S

S

S

S

FertilizerDemand

S

S

O

Petroleum Use forFertilizer

S

S ToxicResidue

S

O

R

OPopulation

Density

Migration

Pursuit of 1st WorldFood Mix

Exposure to a HigherStandard of Living

MethaneProduction

S

S

S

S

S

S

WaterDemand

S

FaminesO

S

RB

B

S

Irrigation

SoilSalinization

S

S

O

S

BiofuelsProduction

Land Loss

GlobalTemperature

Variation in RainfallPattern

Droughts

S

S

S

O

O

O

The main solutions: 2. System’s approach to problem analysis and solving)

Organic Conventional

In 1995 –drought year

The main solutions:3 b: Beating the biotic stresses (it’s the soil stupid!)

The main solutions: 3b. beating the biotic stresses biological / agronomic practices SRI

The main solutions:3 b: Beating the biotic stresses (pests, weeds and soil fertility )

The main solutions: 3b. beating the biotic stresses biological / natural pest and disease control

The main solutions: 3b. beating the biotic stresses ? GMOs?

The main solutions: 3b. beating the biotic stresses with less genetic diversity?

• Improve, expand extension services and capacity bldg

• Strengthen Institutions

• Emphasize local solutions

The main Solutions: 4. beating the biotic stresses through R&D & Edu

Global investments across sectors (2% of GDP, Stern report); 0.16% of GDP (141 Bn $/year) invested in agriculture for:

- Pre harvest losses (training activities and effective pest management with bio-products, IPM)- Ag management practices (cover transition costs from till to no till, organic, agroecological agriculture, training, access to small scale mechanization and irrigation)- R&D (research in soil biology and agronomy, crop improvement (orphan crops), appropriate mechanization, irrigation, and more)- Food processing (better storage and processing in rural areas, efficient processing, marketing, less waste)

A systems model for the transition: scenarios from the UNEP GER ag chapter 2011

Is such a transition possible and how?

… the numbers: we can win-win-win by 2050

Indicator Unit Baseline Green BAU

Agricultural production

Bn US$/year 1’921 2’852 2’559

Crops Bn US$/year 629 996 913

Employment M people 1’075 1’703 1’656

Soil quality Dmnl 0.92 1.03 0.73

Water use Km3 / year 3‘389 3‘207 4‘878

Land Bn ha 1.2 1.26 1.31

Deforestation M ha/ year 16 7 15

Calories for consumption

Kcal/person/day

2‘081 2‘524 2‘476

Source: UNEP Green Economy Report (2011)

Investing 0.2% of total GDP ($141 Billion) / year

Real GDP Employment % Poverty Nutrition Water stress Footprint/ biocapacity

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

1 2

-1

2

-5

0

10

4

-9

8

-13-18

31

8

-26

12

-20

-44

2015 2030

%.. the numbers: we can win-win-win by 2050

Few enabling conditions for a Green Economy

• establish sound regulatory frameworks;• prioritize government investment and spending in

areas that stimulate the greening of economic sectors;• limit spending in areas that deplete natural capital;• employ taxes and market-based instruments to shift

consumer preferences and promote green investment and innovation;

• invest in capacity building and training; and• strengthen international governance.

§115 „We reaffirm the important work and inclusive nature of the Committee on World Food Security, including through its

role in facilitating country-initiated assessments on sustainable food production and food security“

Changing course in global agriculture:

«The Future We Want» (Rio+20 Declaration) recognized • the fact that «a significant portion of the world’s poor live in

rural areas»• the role that agriculture plays in development • the importance and utility of a set of Sustainable Development

Goals (SDGs);• and reaffirmed the necessity to promote, enhance and support

more sustainable agriculture

Implementing the CCGAMulti-stakeholder Assessments (KEN/SEN/ETH)

New policiesNational assessments of

agriculture and food systems

international

Committee on

World Food Security

(CFS)

Sustainable Development

Goals(SDGs)

Changing course of global agriculture

national

Helping hand in the transformation: the consumers

Thank you!

Thank youwww.millennium-institute.orghh@.millennium-institute.org

The time to act is now….and please in the right direction.We have the evidence, the solutions and the means……