Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Dr. Hans R. HerrenPresident Millennium InstituteFounder & Chairman of Biovision Foundation [email protected]
How Green can we make the “Green Economy”?
Shaping the Future We Want
2013年度科技论文
Overview
1. Green Economy?
2. Transforming agriculture and the Food
System: from brown to green, why and
3. How: challenges and solutions for the
needed transformation of global
agriculture and food systems
4. Who and when
Green Economy?
• A green economy is one that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities
• It can be thought of as one which is low carbon, resource efficient and socially inclusive
• In a green economy, growth in income and employment should be driven by public and private investments that reduce carbon emissions and pollution, enhance energy and resource efficiency, and prevent the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services
UNEP 2011
Green Economy?Recognizes the Value of, and Invests in, Natural
Capital Is Central to Poverty Alleviation Creates Jobs and Enhances Social EquitySubstitutes Renewable Energy and Low-
carbon Technologies for Fossil FuelsPromotes Enhanced Resource and Energy EfficiencyDelivers More Sustainable Urban Living and Low-
carbon Mobility Grows Faster than a Brown Economy over Time,
while Maintaining and Restoring Natural Capital
Green Economy: How does it relate to sustainable agriculture and food systems?
Brown Green
Infoprojects
FCP: FarmerCommunication
• 842 million undernourished – 1.5 billion obese – 300 million diabetes type 2 cases, etc. => health problem
• The industrial food system uses 10 kcal to produce 1 (empty)
=> energy problem• The conventional food system is a major part of the
=>climate change problem
• Soil degradation, water shortages, biodiversity loss underlie food insecurity => natural resource problem
• Industrial agriculture has emptied the rural areas instead of providing quality jobs => social problems
Business as usual is not an option!
Brown agriculture and food systems as part of the problems
David Tilman et al. Science 2001
The main problems (too much external / non renewable inputs)
All agricultural soils show signs of degradation
World map of severity of land degradation – GLASOD (FAO 2000)
Understanding the consequences: Soil degradation
….new problems –urbanization
Understanding the consequences: Land and biodiversity loss
Grain Unctad 2011
The main problems (too much GHG)
Source: Stern Review
Understanding the consequences: Climate change
Understanding the consequences: CC and water / temperature stresses
-50% -15%0%
+35%+15%2080
The main problems (too much GHG, less nutrients)
Gaiasoft Company Presentation | © Gaiasoft
2008
Reduced capacity of ecosystems to buffer from extreme events through loss of wetlands, forests, mangroves
The main consequences (Natural and human systems failing under pressure)
The main problems (too much production, too much waste)
….new problems
The main problems (too much production, too many externalities)
• A fundamental shift in Agricultural Knowledge Science and Technology and => agri-food system policies (UNSG), => institutions => capacity development => investments (UNCTAD)
• Paradigm change: transition to sustainable / ecological agriculture addressing the multi-functionality and resilience needs of small-scale and family farmers (eco-intensification, vs smart)
• Need to use a systemic and holistic approach / National multistakeholder assessments (IAASTD)
20
The main solutions to go “Green”
The 3 +1 dimensions of sustainable development
Sustainable& Resilient
viable
livableequitable
EnvironmentEconomic
SocialGovernance
SustainableUn-sustainable
Low
pro
ducti
vity
Hig
h p
rodu
ctivi
tyThe main solutions:1. Paradigm shift / all inclusive
…..and also changing the unsustainable/unhealthy consumption patterns (paradigm shift at home)
Barilla, 2011
Global Warming
Energy Sector
Human Population
Food Production
Fresh Water
Migration
Health Catastrophes
Land Loss & Flooding
PlantCalories
MeatCalories
PlantConsumption
MeatConsumption
MeatProduction
PlantProduction
SoilCapacity Soil Nutient
ConsumptionSoil NutrientProductioin
Plant Calories forMeat Production
S
S
HumanPopulation
HumanBirths
HumanDeaths
Plant Calories forHuman Use
S
S
Calories perCapita
O
S
Life SustainingCalories per Capita
CalorieGapHabitat
Conversion
Acres inAgriculture
O
S
S
S
S
S
S
FertilizerDemand
S
S
O
Petroleum Use forFertilizer
S
S ToxicResidue
S
O
R
OPopulation
Density
Migration
Pursuit of 1st WorldFood Mix
Exposure to a HigherStandard of Living
MethaneProduction
S
S
S
S
S
S
WaterDemand
S
FaminesO
S
RB
B
S
Irrigation
SoilSalinization
S
S
O
S
BiofuelsProduction
Land Loss
GlobalTemperature
Variation in RainfallPattern
Droughts
S
S
S
O
O
O
The main solutions: 2. System’s approach to problem analysis and solving)
Organic Conventional
In 1995 –drought year
The main solutions:3 b: Beating the biotic stresses (it’s the soil stupid!)
The main solutions: 3b. beating the biotic stresses biological / agronomic practices SRI
The main solutions:3 b: Beating the biotic stresses (pests, weeds and soil fertility )
The main solutions: 3b. beating the biotic stresses biological / natural pest and disease control
The main solutions: 3b. beating the biotic stresses ? GMOs?
The main solutions: 3b. beating the biotic stresses with less genetic diversity?
• Improve, expand extension services and capacity bldg
• Strengthen Institutions
• Emphasize local solutions
The main Solutions: 4. beating the biotic stresses through R&D & Edu
Global investments across sectors (2% of GDP, Stern report); 0.16% of GDP (141 Bn $/year) invested in agriculture for:
- Pre harvest losses (training activities and effective pest management with bio-products, IPM)- Ag management practices (cover transition costs from till to no till, organic, agroecological agriculture, training, access to small scale mechanization and irrigation)- R&D (research in soil biology and agronomy, crop improvement (orphan crops), appropriate mechanization, irrigation, and more)- Food processing (better storage and processing in rural areas, efficient processing, marketing, less waste)
A systems model for the transition: scenarios from the UNEP GER ag chapter 2011
Is such a transition possible and how?
… the numbers: we can win-win-win by 2050
Indicator Unit Baseline Green BAU
Agricultural production
Bn US$/year 1’921 2’852 2’559
Crops Bn US$/year 629 996 913
Employment M people 1’075 1’703 1’656
Soil quality Dmnl 0.92 1.03 0.73
Water use Km3 / year 3‘389 3‘207 4‘878
Land Bn ha 1.2 1.26 1.31
Deforestation M ha/ year 16 7 15
Calories for consumption
Kcal/person/day
2‘081 2‘524 2‘476
Source: UNEP Green Economy Report (2011)
Investing 0.2% of total GDP ($141 Billion) / year
Real GDP Employment % Poverty Nutrition Water stress Footprint/ biocapacity
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
1 2
-1
2
-5
0
10
4
-9
8
-13-18
31
8
-26
12
-20
-44
2015 2030
%.. the numbers: we can win-win-win by 2050
Few enabling conditions for a Green Economy
• establish sound regulatory frameworks;• prioritize government investment and spending in
areas that stimulate the greening of economic sectors;• limit spending in areas that deplete natural capital;• employ taxes and market-based instruments to shift
consumer preferences and promote green investment and innovation;
• invest in capacity building and training; and• strengthen international governance.
§115 „We reaffirm the important work and inclusive nature of the Committee on World Food Security, including through its
role in facilitating country-initiated assessments on sustainable food production and food security“
Changing course in global agriculture:
«The Future We Want» (Rio+20 Declaration) recognized • the fact that «a significant portion of the world’s poor live in
rural areas»• the role that agriculture plays in development • the importance and utility of a set of Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs);• and reaffirmed the necessity to promote, enhance and support
more sustainable agriculture
Implementing the CCGAMulti-stakeholder Assessments (KEN/SEN/ETH)
New policiesNational assessments of
agriculture and food systems
international
Committee on
World Food Security
(CFS)
Sustainable Development
Goals(SDGs)
Changing course of global agriculture
national
Helping hand in the transformation: the consumers
Thank you!
Thank [email protected]
The time to act is now….and please in the right direction.We have the evidence, the solutions and the means……
