贸易和发展报告...2013 贸发会议 联 合 国 顺应世界经济 不断变化的格局...

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2013

贸发

会议

联 合 国

顺应世界经济

不断变化的格局

与时俱进

贸易和发展报告2013

联合国贸易和发展会议

贸发会议

联 合 国

Printed at United Nations, Geneva1357684 (C)–July 2014–154

UNCTAD/TDR/2013

ISSN 0251-8015

年贸

易和

发展

报告

2013

2013

UNCTAD/TDR/2013

©

iii

.................................................................................................................................................xi

...................................................................................................................................................... xiii

.................................................................................................................................................. I–XVIII

2013

1

A. 1148

B. 101114

C. 211990 21

25293235

37

iv

47

A. 47

B. 4949505259

C. 60

D. 626367

E. 7072808487

89

91

95

103

A. 103

B. 105105108

v

C. 111111118

D. 125125127132

E. 137

138

140

vii

193064

120

2

5

9

13

22

23

24

27

28

/43

44

54

107

108

133

viii

1 2013 ........................................................................................7

2002 1 2013 8

12

14

16

19

26

30

31

/40

41

45

50

51

52

2012 61

( ) 62

69

71

74

77

78

106

109

112

/ 113

114

115

ix

117

118

( ) 122

123

xi

» ( ) ( )

» ( )

»

/

2012 (

( ) 20122012 (

( )

1,000

(/) 2000/2001

(0)

xiii

BISCISECBECLACEIBERMESCAPEUFAOFDIFSBGDPIEAILOIMFLDCLLRODAOECDOPECPPPREERSMETDRTNCUNCTAD

UNSDUSDAWTO

2008 2009

II

20122.2% 2013

( ) 1%5% 3%

2008

( )

20132%

2013 4.5% 5% 2012

( )

2012 5.3%

( )2013

III

2011 7.1% 2012 3.2% 2013

2010 2011 9% 2012 2.2%2012

2013

5%

3%

20122012 ( )

3% 2013

1990 28% 2003-200740% 2008 75%

2008-20092010 2011 5% 2012 2%

20123% 5% 2012 90%

2011

IV

2013

2012 2013

4%

2002-2007 27% 201113% 2012 7%

2002 2007 19% 2012 6%( )

2008-2009(2008 8 )

22%26% 2002

2007 11.3% 2011 1 2013 43.5% 12.4% 5.5%

2008-20092008 2012 1.7%

1970

2009

V

2008

VI

()

2008 20091990

79% 2012 60% 17%36% 2004

1990 2003-2007(

) ( )

20082008-2009

1995 30% 201240%

2008-2009

( 2008-2009 )

VII

1990

( )

2011-2012

VIII

( )

( )

IX

( )

/

X

( )

( )

XI

()

2009 26% 202041% 2030 58% 3

5 1.53 ( )

( )( )

XII

XIII

2008

2008

20102011

2011

XIV

XV

()

()

()

XVI

1980

( )

( )

XVII

( )

()

XVIII

1.

20122.2% 2013

1%( 1.1)4.7% 2.7%

2012

2008

( )

()

( )

( )

A.

2013

1.1

2005-2013( )

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013a

3.5 4.1 4.0 1.5 -2.2 4.1 2.8 2.2 2.1

2.4 2.8 2.6 0.0 -3.8 2.6 1.5 1.2 1.0

1.3 1.7 2.2 -1.0 -5.5 4.7 -0.6 1.9 1.93.1 2.7 1.9 -0.3 -3.1 2.4 1.8 2.2 1.7

( 27 ) 2.1 3.3 3.2 0.3 -4.3 2.1 1.6 -0.3 -0.2

1.7 3.3 3.0 0.4 -4.4 2.0 1.5 -0.6 -0.71.8 2.5 2.3 -0.1 -3.1 1.7 2.0 0.0 -0.20.7 3.7 3.3 1.1 -5.1 4.2 3.0 0.7 0.30.9 2.2 1.7 -1.2 -5.5 1.7 0.4 -2.4 -1.82.8 2.6 3.6 -1.0 -4.0 1.8 0.9 0.2 1.1

6.5 8.3 8.6 5.2 -6.6 4.5 4.5 3.0 2.7b 4.7 4.8 5.5 3.7 -4.3 0.0 1.1 -1.4 0.3

6.7 8.7 8.9 5.3 -6.8 4.9 4.8 3.4 2.9

6.4 8.2 8.5 5.2 -7.8 4.5 4.3 3.4 2.5

6.8 7.6 7.9 5.3 2.4 7.9 5.9 4.6 4.75.8 5.9 6.2 5.2 2.8 4.9 1.0 5.4 4.05.1 5.4 4.7 4.6 3.2 4.1 -6.1 7.8 3.66.7 6.5 7.7 6.6 4.9 6.4 4.8 5.3 5.45.3 5.6 5.5 3.6 -1.5 3.1 3.5 2.5 1.74.5 5.6 5.6 4.0 -1.9 5.9 4.3 3.0 3.17.4 9.4 5.8 3.1 -0.1 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.74.8 6.4 7.0 4.1 -0.2 4.1 5.2 5.0 4.13.2 5.2 3.3 1.2 -6.0 5.5 4.0 3.9 2.85.0 5.5 6.6 5.5 -0.2 6.4 4.6 2.5 3.2

3.2 4.0 6.1 5.2 -0.3 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.57.8 8.6 9.0 5.8 3.9 8.9 7.1 5.0 5.28.6 9.9 11.0 6.9 5.9 9.5 7.7 6.0 6.1

11.3 12.7 14.2 9.6 9.2 10.4 9.3 7.8 7.68.0 8.3 8.9 5.2 4.7 9.4 6.6 3.0 4.3

9.0 9.4 10.1 6.2 5.0 11.2 7.7 3.8 5.25.8 6.1 6.6 4.3 1.2 8.0 4.5 5.4 4.76.8 7.0 4.6 3.8 -1.7 7.0 7.1 3.2 3.53.4 2.9 3.5 2.7 2.3 3.6 4.3 4.1 2.7

: ( / )2013 2013 2013 2013 4

2005 a b

20134 50

( 10%)2%2013

2%

1.7% 2012 2.2%

20133

2013

20134.5% 5% 2012

2012

2012 7.8%2013 7.6%

2013 6.1% 4.3%4.7%

( 2013 )

20117.1% 2012 3.2% 2013

2010 2011 9%2012 2.2% 20133.3%

2012

2013

2013

( ) 20135%

2013

3%

2012 2013

(2013 )

2012

2013

2012

( )

20122012

2013

2012( ) 3%

2013

()

1990 28% 2003-200740% 2008 75%

2.

( )

20122013

2008-20092010

2011 5.3% 20121.7%

( 1.2)

20122.8% 5% 2012

90%

20111

2013

2012

2012 1%2011 4.2% 2012 3.9%

2011 15.7%

2011 6% 2012 3.6%2011 7.4% 2012 4.5%

2011

2

2.5%

2012

1.2

2009-2012

( )

2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012

-13.3 13.9 5.2 1.8 -13.6 13.8 5.3 1.6-15.5 13.0 4.9 0.4 -14.6 10.8 3.4 -0.5

-24.8 27.5 -0.6 -1.0 -12.2 10.1 4.2 3.7-14.0 15.4 7.2 4.1 -16.4 14.8 3.8 2.8-14.9 11.6 5.5 -0.2 -14.5 9.6 2.8 -2.8-14.4 11.3 4.2 1.0 -28.2 15.9 15.7 3.9

-13.9 11.4 4.2 1.3 -29.1 19.7 17.4 5.0-9.7 16.0 6.0 3.6 -10.2 18.8 7.4 4.5-9.5 8.8 -8.3 5.7 -6.2 8.4 2.8 8.0-7.8 9.6 -0.7 0.1 -9.0 9.7 7.9 4.2-7.4 8.3 4.6 2.2 -17.9 22.5 10.8 2.5

-10.9 24.1 10.4 5.2 -5.3 22.7 7.4 4.3

-14.1 29.1 13.0 7.2 -1.1 25.4 10.3 5.9-6.1 10.0 8.8 -10.2 -5.5 14.0 6.0 2.0

-6.8 14.0 14.2 -2.5 -0.9 13.8 9.1 5.8-10.0 18.6 4.4 2.2 -15.8 22.0 6.7 6.0

-4.8 5.7 6.5 6.9 -14.2 8.4 8.1 5.8

2013

2007 7.5% 2008-2012 1.4%2003-2007 7.4%

2008-2009

( )201113% 2012 7.2%

( ) 2002-2007 27%1990

2012

2002 2007 19% 26% 20125.9% 4.3% 2012

()

20022007

14% 10%9% 2012

1.5% 2.5%0.5%

2008-2009

( )(2008 8 )

22%

26%

2002 200711.3% 2011

1 2013 43.5%

12.4% 5.5%( 1.1)

2013

20132%

20136.2% 3

( )

/2012

1-2% 20124% (

)30%

6%

(7%)(6%) (5%) (2%)

2%( 2013) 2012 7

20124.3%

20126.7%

5.4%

50%

( 14.2%)(12.3%)

20121.5%

2011 7.1% 3.2%

16% 50%

1.1

2004 1 2013 4( 2005 100)

80

100

120

140

160

180

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201380

100

120

140

160

180

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2013

( 2013 )

3.

2012 20132011

( 1.2)

2003-2008( 1.3)

2012

2012/2013 2013/14

( 2013 )

2013( )

2012 7 2013 6 // 105.5

99 111

1.2

2002 1 2013 5

( 2002 100)

:

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

( )

0

100

200

300

400

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

2013

2013

1.3

2007-2013( )

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013a

2011-2013

2003-2008b

c 13.0 24.0 -16.9 20.4 17.9 -8.4 -3.3 68.6( )c 8.6 19.5 -14.5 21.7 14.1 -5.5 -2.2 63.9

13.3 39.2 -8.5 7.4 17.8 -1.4 -4.3 77.08.6 40.4 -5.4 5.6 16.5 -0.4 -3.3 78.1

10.4 20.2 1.9 17.5 26.8 -21.5 -13.5 77.912.5 15.4 -6.9 27.3 42.9 -25.7 -16.2 96.922.6 32.2 11.9 8.5 -4.9 -19.7 -5.8 42.9

-12.3 27.2 16.5 -1.0 11.4 0.8 -14.2 52.88.5 42.5 -6.0 4.4 15.4 2.0 -2.4 78.2

-31.7 26.9 41.8 17.3 22.2 -17.1 -15.5 121.51.9 2.6 -1.2 27.5 20.0 2.6 1.4 63.4

38.2 34.0 -24.4 13.2 50.1 2.6 -0.5 112.534.3 27.5 -31.4 3.3 35.1 -0.1 0.8 53.99.5 110.7 -15.8 -11.5 5.9 5.1 -2.9 64.0

-0.9 24.6 0.7 3.7 10.8 0.9 -6.2 58.252.9 31.9 -28.4 22.7 27.2 -7.6 -11.4 69.543.0 36.1 -16.6 3.1 20.2 9.4 -6.4 67.412.0 20.5 -17.5 38.3 28.1 -23.0 -5.3 70.34.5 -11.3 -30.0 60.5 14.0 1.4 3.4 22.8

10.2 12.8 -12.2 65.3 47.5 -41.8 2.2 87.211.6 8.3 18.0 1.8 3.8 -3.9 2.0 45.99.5 16.9 -27.0 90.3 32.0 -30.5 -8.4 119.4

19.5 39.3 -20.6 1.8 13.8 -7.4 1.0 28.612.8 6.2 -30.3 41.3 14.7 -14.1 -0.8 54.92.7 -2.5 -35.3 30.5 10.4 -15.8 -4.0 1.1

60.5 387.2 -64.8 1.1 50.3 0.5 -8.2 88.677.4 26.8 -48.7 82.4 15.0 -23.4 10.1 26.665.6 27.3 -26.7 50.4 28.0 -19.2 8.7 125.25.9 -2.3 -26.3 47.0 17.1 -9.9 -3.9 70.2

53.5 -43.3 -30.6 48.9 5.0 -23.4 -5.9 -2.8100.2 -19.0 -17.7 25.0 11.8 -14.2 6.3 60.1

-1.0 -42.2 -11.7 30.5 1.5 -11.2 0.4 5.615.3 25.1 11.6 26.1 27.8 6.4 -6.6 184.6

d 10.7 36.4 -36.3 28.0 31.4 1.0 -2.2 77.3

e 7.5 4.9 -5.6 1.9 10.3 -2.2 .. ..

: ( ):

a 2013 1 5 2012b 2003-2008 2011-2013cde

2013

2012( )

2013(

) (( ) )

2013

2013

2012

2013

2013(2013 )

2013 4 270

2012 2013

( )

2010

( )

1.

( )

2007 7.2% 20135 11% 2009

2010 10% 20137.6% 2007 5%

2013 614.3% 4

2009 5.5% 20135 4.1%

3.5% 5

2007 5.1 2012 5( )

68.8% 66.6% 6

2012 5.17() 1 700

( 1.3)

( )2012

2007 2012 () 1.3

( 1.3)

( )

( )

( )

2013

( )

( 2010)

2010 6

( 20112012 2012 )

1.3

2008-2012

2012

20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2008 200 2010 2011 2012

A.

3 0

2 5

2 0

1 5

1 0

0 5

0 0

0 5

2008 200 2010 2011 2012

B.

( )( 2010

)

1

10

( 2012 ) 7

(2012 )

(2013 )

1.4

1 1.5

0.5 8

9

10

1.4

1.66 -0.361.84 -0.371.51 -0.271.76 -0.421.54 -0.331.48 -0.271.38 -0.291.65 -0.411.64 -0.411.48 -0.311.35 -0.291.59 -0.361.68 -0.311.71 -0.391.32 -0.261.58 -0.36

:( )

: ( )

2013

()

( )

2.

1970 1980

( )

11

( 1.4)12

1.4

1980-2011

( )

:

( )

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011

( )

13

() ( )

( 2012 )

( )

1980

(1.7)

14

( 2008 )

( )( )

( )( )

1971 2011( 1.5)

1970 1990( )

3.5%

15

1990

2001 2008

1980

2013

(2013 )

()

(2013 )

16

( 2013 )

1.5

1971-2011

( )

:

:

6

4

2

0

2

4

6

1 1 1 3 1 5 1 1 1 81 1 83 1 85 1 8 1 8 1 1 1 3 1 5 1 1 2001 2003 2005 200 200 2011

( )

1980 141990 56 2007 206

1980 120% 2007365%( 2013 14) (

)

1980 5 0002007 12

1980 199525%

2000 28% 2005 38% 2007-2010 50%

100 150%

( 1978 )

( 2005 ) 17

( 1999 2010 )

( )

( )( 2011

)

2013

( )

1980 1990

1970 1980( 1.6)

1980

3%1985

1990

1990

2000

20063% 2007

2008-2009

20092%

2009

( )

( 2013 )

25 2030

1.6

1970-2011( )

:: 2004 2007

3

2

1

0

1

2

3

1 0 1 5 1 80 1 85 1 0 1 5 2000 2005 2010 2011

2013

1. 1990

19901994

1997-19982008

2000-2001 2001-2002

1991-20024.7%

( 1.5)2.6%

19901991-2002

1980

2001

2003-2007

4.5-5 ( 1.5)

2008-2009

( 2012 ) 2010-2012

1991-2002 2003-2007

C.

2013

2011-2012( )

( 1.5) 1990-2005( 1.6)50%

2008-2012( 1.5) 2010

1.5

1991-2013

( )

1991-2002 2003-2007 2008-2012 2010 2011 2012 2013

( ) ( ) ( )

2.9 2.9 3.7 3.7 1.7 1.7 4.1 2.8 2.2 2.1

2.6 2.0 2.6 2.0 0.3 0.2 2.6 1.5 1.2 1.0-2.6 -0.1 7.6 0.2 1.8 0.0 4.5 4.5 3.0 2.74.7 0.8 7.0 1.5 5.3 1.4 7.9 5.9 4.6 4.72.9 0.1 5.8 0.1 3.6 0.1 4.9 1.0 5.4 4.06.5 0.5 8.3 0.9 6.8 1.0 9.3 7.0 5.3 5.53.7 0.1 6.9 0.2 4.0 0.1 7.0 7.1 3.2 3.52.9 0.2 4.8 0.3 3.0 0.2 5.9 4.3 3.0 3.12.2 0.0 3.1 0.0 3.4 0.0 3.6 4.3 4.1 2.7

2.6 0.0 8.9 0.0 5.8 0.0 9.2 8.9 1.9 4.82.6 0.1 4.0 0.1 3.3 0.1 7.5 2.7 0.9 2.5

10.1 0.2 11.6 0.5 9.4 0.6 10.4 9.3 7.8 7.65.9 0.1 8.6 0.1 7.2 0.1 11.2 7.7 3.8 5.23.6 0.0 5.5 0.0 5.9 0.0 6.2 6.5 6.2 5.73.1 0.1 3.6 0.1 1.6 0.0 5.5 4.0 3.9 2.86.1 0.1 4.4 0.1 3.1 0.1 6.3 3.7 2.0 1.6

-2.7 -0.1 7.4 0.1 1.5 0.0 4.5 4.3 3.4 2.52.0 0.0 4.7 0.0 4.4 0.0 5.1 7.1 5.9 4.02.3 0.0 4.9 0.0 2.1 0.0 3.1 3.5 2.5 1.73.3 0.0 7.3 0.1 3.5 0.0 9.2 8.8 2.2 3.3

: 1.1:2013

197070% 1990

80%( 1.6)

201260% 1970

2005 712 201235%

201247.3%

( 1.6)

18

50%

1.6

1970-2012

a b

1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 2010 2012 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 2010 2012

69.5 69.9 78.8 78.3 77.0 73.8 69.6 63.7 60.4 63.4 62.3 60.9 56.7 54.2 50.0 48.113.7 8.5 3.9 1.9 1.2 2.4 3.3 3.3 3.9 7.9 4.3 3.9 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.616.8 21.6 17.3 19.8 21.7 23.8 27.1 33.0 35.8 28.7 33.4 35.2 38.8 41.1 45.4 47.32.7 3.6 2.2 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.07.5 8.3 8.1 10.1 11.0 12.8 14.8 18.9 21.3 13.6 17.8 19.7 23.2 25.3 29.0 30.71.3 3.2 2.0 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.95.3 6.4 4.9 6.1 6.6 5.9 6.7 8.0 8.0 8.6 9.2 8.9 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.70.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.0 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.91.1 1.6 1.7 2.6 2.0 1.9 2.4 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.82.8 2.6 1.8 2.5 3.7 5.0 6.2 9.4 11.3 3.5 5.6 7.1 9.4 11.0 13.6 14.91.9 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.3 4.6 5.4 5.60.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.51.3 1.9 1.3 1.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.10.3 0.5 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.3 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.8 5.3 2.9 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.00.2 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.10.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.70.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4

: 2013 41.1

a b 2005

2013

1.7

1981-2011

1981–1990

1991–2002

2003–2007

2008–2011

1981–1990

1991–2002

2003–2007

2008–2011

1981–1990

1991–2002

2003–2007

2008–2011

1981–1990

1991–2002

2003–2007

2008–2011

GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 3.2 2.6 2.6 -0.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 3.1 3.8 5.9 3.8HH 60.7 61.1 62.1 62.7 3.2 2.8 2.5 0.3 58.7 59.5 58.8 58.8 3.1 3.8 5.5 3.6Gov 20.7 19.0 18.3 19.0 2.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 16.3 14.3 13.3 13.7 3.1 2.6 4.8 5.0Inv 18.9 20.0 20.7 18.5 4.2 3.2 4.1 -4.0 23.0 23.4 23.6 25.3 0.7 3.4 9.1 3.9Exp 13.3 19.3 24.3 26.5 4.9 6.5 6.5 0.8 23.4 32.1 41.5 42.8 3.1 7.2 10.3 3.6Imp 13.2 19.2 25.5 26.8 5.7 6.9 6.6 0.1 20.5 28.9 37.4 41.1 2.8 6.9 12.0 4.1

GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 3.6 4.7 7.0 5.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.7 2.9 4.9 2.8HH 58.3 57.3 54.6 52.9 3.7 4.4 5.9 4.5 59.9 62.5 63.2 64.7 1.6 3.0 5.2 3.3Gov 16.1 14.4 13.5 13.6 3.7 3.6 5.9 5.7 17.5 15.5 14.5 14.5 1.8 1.9 3.4 3.7Inv 24.3 25.7 27.5 30.8 1.6 4.8 10.4 7.4 21.2 21.3 20.9 22.5 -2.1 3.9 7.7 2.3Exp 22.2 30.3 40.4 42.0 3.5 8.2 12.0 5.9 11.9 18.8 24.5 23.9 4.7 7.6 7.8 1.7Imp 19.6 27.2 35.9 39.6 3.2 7.7 13.1 7.0 10.3 18.1 23.2 26.7 0.1 8.4 11.2 4.4

GDP … 100.0 100.0 100.0 … -3.0 7.6 1.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.9 2.9 5.8 3.5HH … 47.0 53.2 60.8 … -1.3 10.7 3.3 61.7 62.4 62.1 62.8 1.9 3.2 5.1 4.3Gov … 20.2 16.7 15.2 … -1.8 2.7 0.8 16.0 15.6 14.7 16.0 2.7 1.6 6.5 5.9Inv … 27.1 23.1 24.0 … -12.2 14.9 -2.1 21.4 18.0 19.6 22.3 -4.5 3.2 9.3 4.5Exp … 30.8 38.6 37.0 … 1.1 8.4 0.8 29.3 33.7 36.6 35.7 1.8 4.1 8.6 0.5Imp … 23.3 31.2 35.5 … -2.7 15.5 0.9 27.3 27.1 31.9 36.3 -2.4 4.7 10.6 4.1

GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 3.6 3.5 2.8 0.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.4 3.7 6.9 3.7HH 66.8 67.7 70.0 70.9 3.8 3.8 3.0 0.3 49.8 51.1 52.7 53.1 3.6 3.5 7.9 2.5Gov 20.4 17.1 15.8 16.5 3.4 1.2 1.4 1.5 17.1 15.1 15.0 16.0 4.6 2.1 7.0 4.7Inv 15.4 17.7 19.4 15.7 4.1 6.6 3.7 -5.1 16.5 16.8 20.8 24.2 -0.2 3.9 15.1 4.1Exp 6.5 10.0 11.1 13.1 6.0 6.0 7.2 2.6 42.5 40.5 45.6 44.7 -3.4 5.3 9.5 2.2Imp 7.9 12.2 16.3 16.2 7.9 8.9 6.4 -0.5 26.3 23.8 34.1 39.3 1.3 4.1 16.9 2.1

GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.5 2.3 2.6 -0.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 4.7 5.1 8.1 6.4HH 57.7 57.8 57.6 57.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 0.0 65.5 61.2 58.3 57.3 4.1 4.7 7.2 5.6Gov 22.4 21.2 20.4 21.1 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.3 13.6 12.2 10.9 11.3 3.0 4.7 5.9 9.0Inv 18.9 19.7 20.8 19.6 3.4 2.8 4.7 -4.2 30.3 26.8 32.1 35.8 2.7 4.1 14.2 7.4Exp 19.4 28.8 37.9 41.0 4.5 6.8 6.5 0.8 11.3 15.9 21.1 23.0 6.0 7.0 13.6 8.6Imp 18.5 27.4 36.7 39.2 5.0 6.6 6.8 0.1 15.9 16.0 22.5 27.1 0.9 6.0 17.1 9.0

GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 4.6 0.9 1.8 -0.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 5.1 4.6 6.2 4.5HH 58.1 57.8 57.6 58.6 4.0 1.3 1.1 0.4 56.5 56.0 56.8 55.9 4.7 5.0 5.4 4.3Gov 15.4 16.4 18.3 19.0 3.6 3.0 1.0 1.7 11.7 10.0 10.2 10.9 3.7 4.2 5.8 6.4Inv 27.0 26.6 22.5 19.8 6.1 -1.1 1.2 -4.7 31.4 31.0 24.0 25.0 4.8 0.5 6.9 5.4Exp 8.1 9.8 14.5 15.7 4.9 3.9 9.6 -1.5 39.2 62.4 82.1 83.7 7.4 8.9 11.3 3.6Imp 7.6 10.2 12.8 13.0 5.9 4.0 4.8 -0.7 37.5 57.9 73.1 75.3 6.6 7.7 11.7 3.5

GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 10.3 10.1 11.6 9.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 8.7 5.4 4.9 3.3HH 53.5 45.2 38.9 35.9 11.8 8.7 8.0 8.8 57.6 59.1 55.4 53.1 8.0 5.3 3.2 2.3Gov 14.5 14.7 14.0 13.2 11.8 10.0 9.8 7.9 16.9 14.5 12.8 12.7 6.2 3.6 3.2 3.3Inv 38.0 38.3 41.7 46.4 7.9 10.6 13.4 13.4 26.8 30.5 26.5 23.1 10.4 3.7 3.8 0.4Exp 9.7 20.3 36.0 39.9 13.6 18.3 20.0 13.7 31.5 45.5 65.5 74.0 12.7 9.2 11.8 5.3Imp 9.4 17.5 30.4 35.3 14.3 17.1 18.6 18.0 32.4 49.3 61.0 63.8 12.0 7.8 9.6 3.7

:: 2005 2005

100

()

1980 2003-2007

( 1.7) 20032007

2008-2011

2009 ) 19

2008-2011 () 8

46%1980 50%

2008-2011 36%

1981 2011

( 1.7)(

) 13%27% 20% 40%

( 2008

)

1981-1990 2008-201130

2003 2007 () 6%

( )

2000(

)2003

2008

2.

/

()( )

2013

1.7

2004-2012( )

:

: ( )( 40% 50%)

25

20

15

10

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2004 200 2008 200 2010 2011 2012

25

20

15

10

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

25

20

15

10

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

25

20

15

10

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

( 1.7)2008-2009

( 2010 )

1990 30%2012 45%

2008 ( 1.8)

2010

2009 ( )

1.8

1995-2012

1995 11.9 0.3 16.1 28.30.3 0.6 1.1 2.1

16.6 1.1 52.1 69.728.8 2.0 69.2 100.0

2000 13.1 0.2 18.8 32.10.4 0.5 1.4 2.4

15.0 0.8 49.8 65.528.5 1.5 70.1 100.0

2005 16.7 0.5 19.1 36.30.6 0.7 2.1 3.5

13.6 1.4 45.3 60.331.0 2.5 66.5 100.0

2008 19.8 0.8 18.3 38.90.9 0.9 2.8 4.6

13.6 1.9 40.9 56.534.3 3.7 62.0 100.0

2010 23.2 0.7 18.4 42.30.9 0.7 2.1 3.7

15.3 1.5 37.2 54.039.4 2.9 57.7 100.0

2012 25.3 0.8 18.5 44.70.9 0.8 2.4 4.1

15.0 1.7 34.6 51.241.2 3.3 55.5 100.0

:: 100

2013

1.9

1995-2012( )

1995 2000 2005 2007 2010 20121996-2002

2003-2007

2008-2012

7.8 8.1 7.9 9.0 10.2 10.1 5.8 29.1 14.49.0 9.4 9.2 11.1 13.3 13.5 5.5 28.6 14.85.2 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.5 7.2 30.7 12.6

76.5 76.7 77.1 75.3 73.7 74.4 5.4 23.5 12.180.8 81.7 82.3 80.5 78.9 78.8 5.4 21.3 10.666.2 66.2 66.4 65.4 63.7 66.2 5.4 29.3 13.5

58.7 55.9 53.3 49.4 46.5 45.8 4.5 20.6 11.268.8 70.0 68.0 64.2 60.9 60.3 5.4 20.0 9.935.4 27.2 25.2 23.1 22.5 23.0 1.4 24.3 14.0

10.6 10.9 15.9 17.4 17.0 18.2 9.1 30.1 13.112.6 13.8 21.5 24.8 25.0 27.8 9.9 31.3 13.1

5.9 4.9 5.0 4.4 4.0 4.5 5.0 20.8 13.8

13.2 14.6 18.9 17.5 17.9 17.5 8.3 24.9 13.315.1 17.0 22.8 21.2 21.4 19.6 9.0 23.1 10.19.2 10.0 11.6 11.1 12.5 12.9 5.6 32.3 17.9

7.7 7.7 6.3 6.2 5.2 5.0 2.8 25.2 6.86.1 5.9 5.3 5.4 4.8 4.9 1.9 26.8 7.7

11.6 11.7 8.7 7.9 6.1 5.6 4.0 23.2 5.7

3.2 2.3 3.5 3.8 4.8 5.1 2.7 30.6 19.61.4 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.1 24.3 5.87.3 5.3 8.0 8.7 11.7 11.7 3.9 32.7 22.4

0.4 0.5 1.2 1.4 2.2 2.3 11.7 38.0 25.40.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 20.7 20.7 13.31.3 1.2 3.0 3.6 5.6 5.5 9.8 42.7 26.8

2.3 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 2.1 18.9 10.21.7 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 13.1 8.73.7 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 3.0 22.7 10.7

2.4 3.2 3.4 3.9 4.3 3.8 7.9 32.3 12.60.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.8 18.0 12.35.7 8.0 8.5 9.6 10.3 8.5 9.9 35.3 12.3

0.2 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.1 23.2 51.0 8.40.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.8 23.3 21.60.5 1.6 3.3 3.9 4.6 2.6 27.4 53.3 7.8

::

(

) ( 2005)

10%( 1.9)40%60%

2000

2005( 1.9)

20

2008 ( 1.8)

1995-2012

2013 62013

3.

1970

2013

()

( )

() ( 2009

) 1.92000

2002 2008

2006 20082009 2011

2003 2008

1.8

1995-2012( 1995 100)

:

21 50%

()

( )

( 2011 20122012 )

1.9

1980-2012( )

::

(1995 1000)

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

1 80 1 82 1 84 1 86 1 88 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 6 1 8 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

2013

1

2012

22012

40% 150 / 2011250 /

3

6.2%2012

20131 42013 5 6

63.1% 5 1 %

5 0.3% 60.7% 2013 1 4

17.4%

(2013 5 6 )

()

( )

(2013 7 1 )

4 // . . / . / . 15.

5 // . . . / // / .

6 2007 42012 4 500

2007 12 2012 12350 2007 12

2013 5 150

1998 2012520 //

. . . . / / / // /

// . ./ . / . 15.

// . . . / / / /.

7

()

( 0.6)

( 2012 81)

8( )

( )

9

1.360%

35%5%

59%

2011

10

()

11( )

12

( 2010 )2000 2007

( 2012 )

( 2012 2012)

2000 ( 20122012 )

13 (2012 )

169

7

4

4(2012 )

2013

(

)

(2012)

14 (1982 ) 19301930

10%

15 3.6%60%

3%3%

16( )

( 2004 ) (2012 )

1972-2005 140

( 1943)

17

()

2005 2(

// . . / / /2005// . )

18 ()

19 (2010 .4)55

10%2012

(2013 )2016

2013 1192015

132

20 2002 ( )

21

(2012). . 44 .

(2012). . . 18006 .

(2004). 47(6) 5 45.

(2005).

8 . (2012). - - .

. 208 . (2013).

. (2012).

0(1) 24 36. (2010). -

2.0. . 3

.

I 152(3) 1 26.

. 40(9) 1750 1761.

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(1943). . 5(14) 322 331.

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18 . (2012). .

(2013).

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2013

(2013). -

181 .

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37

2030

1

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201338

1

3

39

1 1

1 2

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1 1

1995-2030 /

200

2

0

2

4

6

8

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20304

2

0

2

4

6

8

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20308

6

4

2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

4

2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20304

2

0

2

4

6

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1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302

0

2

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1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

6

4

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1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20304

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1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302

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10

12

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

41

1 2

1995-2030 /

50

55

60

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203055

60

65

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203050

55

60

65

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

35

40

45

50

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203045

50

55

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203035

40

45

50

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1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

45

50

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1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203045

50

55

60

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203035

40

45

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1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

201342

1 1

1 2

1 3

1 3

1 2

1 1 1 2

43

1 1

2007-2030 /

2007–2012

2013–2018

2019–2024

2025–2030

2007–2012

2013–2018

2019–2024

2025–2030

2013–2018

2019–2024

2025–2030

2 3 1 2 3 0 3 2 6 3 1 3 84 5 8 6 2 3 5 5 8 6 4 36 6 85 101 83 6 4 1 4 4 2 4 0 4 1 6 42 2 52 5

1 0 1 1 6 1 6 2 2 1 2 4 2 82 3 3 3 6 3 2 4 4 2 18 5 1 81 2 0 2 3 2 1 3 3 4 2 0 5 2 5 3

4 4 1 8 2 3 2 4 1 5 1 0 2 63 8 5 1 5 3 2 5 5 5 0 2 2 2 82 5 3 5 3 8 2 0 3 1 4 0 0 3 1 0 1 4

5 2 3 5 3 0 3 0 0 4 4 2 3 36 2 1 6 6 4 8 0 4 5 14 22 54 5 4 8 5 2 5 1 5 5 5 2 5 8 5 13 2

4 0 3 0 2 2 5 0 1 2 2 3 24 1 5 4 5 2 1 5 5 6 2 3 4 6 5 63 3 3 3 1 5 3 3 4 2 1 3 6 3 4

4 3 3 2 2 6 2 6 6 6 3 0 0 2 05 6 6 1 5 3 5 6 3 1 5 4 8 6 34 4 4 3 4 2 3 1 3 2 4 2 0 8 2 6 3 5

5 1 3 3 0 2 6 5 5 4 1 6 2 45 3 6 2 6 5 4 8 6 8 6 6 2 15 4 1 34 3 4 1 4 2 5 2 3 5 4 1 3 8 12 0

8 8 8 1 6 1 11 8 3 4 5 1 5 312 3 11 1 5 3 5 5 6 5 8 0 12 1 110 8 3 8 3 1 4 5 5 4 3 6 3

8 5 2 4 8 4 8 4 2 2 2 2 38 1 10 3 4 8 10 0 5 0 11 8 15 26 5 2 3 2 5 1 6 5 3 0 2 8 8

201344

1 2

2007-2030 /

2007–2012

2013–2018

2019–2024

2025–2030

2007–2012

2013–2018

2019–2024

2025–2030

2013–2018

2019–2024

2025–2030

2025–2030

世界 3 6 2 1 2 3 2 8 3 3 6 3 2 3 04 0 5 6 2 2 1 13 1 3 4 3 3 5 2 2 4

1 6 0 5 0 0 8 5 6 4 3 3 0 0 5 0 4 1 3 2 41 2 3 0 3 5 3 2 5 2 5 0 4 0 5 0 80 6 0 1 3 4 8 3 2 1 0 3 0 5 0

3 1 2 0 1 6 1 1 2 0 6 0 4 0 2 5 0 2 0 1 43 0 4 5 4 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 6 0 52 5 3 5 3 8 0 0 2 0 1 0 3 0 3 0 5

2 1 6 1 2 2 2 2 4 3 2 5 1 1 1 6 4 3 6 4 5 82 6 8 6 2 8 1 0 1 1 2 3 1 5 0 22 2 4 2 5 0 3 2 4 2 0 3 6 4 6 4 0

5 8 2 2 1 8 2 3 2 4 3 6 3 2 2 6 2 3 5 3 8 3 44 1 5 5 6 0 3 0 2 4 2 5 2 5 0 0 13 1 3 4 0 3 5 3 4 3 4 3 1 2 6 2 0

5 0 3 0 1 8 2 8 4 0 5 0 0 1 2 4 0 8 2 03 8 5 5 5 0 0 0 4 3 1 5 0 83 3 3 4 5 0 5 1 0 1 0 3 3 0 8 0 8

5 5 3 3 2 4 2 8 2 8 2 3 2 3 0 1 6 4 2 4 5 3 38 5 1 6 8 2 8 2 8 2 2 2 0 5 0 06 2 4 8 4 3 0 3 6 3 8 3 3 6 2

0 1 3 6 6 1 0 0 2 1 3 2 5 4 8 6 8 8 4 8 312 2 8 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 3 1 6 1 510 4 8 8 8 0 3 1 0 1 5 4 6 3 3 6

4 4 4 8 3 6 10 0 10 1 6 0 4 8 2 14 10 2 10 3 6 2 3 1 3 0 4 5 1 8 1 14 6 6 6 4 2 2 2

45

1 3

1980-2030

200 200

3

2

1

0

1

2

3

1 80 1 85 1 0 1 5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

3

2

1

0

1

2

3

1 80 1 85 1 0 1 5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

201346

1

2010

3

2010

2 2030

3

47

200200

201348

200 200

2000

49

200 200

1

200 200

2 1 1

201350

2

2 2

2002 200200 200

1 2 1 3

2 1

2008-2009

200

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 5

文莱达鲁萨兰国

巴林

伊拉克

加蓬

沙特阿拉伯

特立尼达和多巴哥

科威特

阿曼

卡塔尔

阿尔及利亚

新加坡

香港 中国

马来西亚

越南

中国台湾省

柬埔寨

泰国

墨西哥

中国

突尼斯

0 0

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 5

51

2 32000

2000

2

2010 2011

200

2000 2 3

2012

2011

2000

2 2

18 5-2009

1 0 1 100

2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1865 18 0 1 15 1 40 1 65 1 0 2000

50

100

150

200

250

300

1865 18 0 1 15 1 40 1 65 1 0 200

201352

3

2002011

200200

200

2 3

2000-20122000 100

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201260

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

53

2003200 200

1 0

2002 2011 2012

2002010 2012

2012 3

0 2 1

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20123

0

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201354

2 1

2002-2012

2002 2012

3 2 105 2 101 8 54 6 13 0 4 4 8 5223 0 12 6 0 2 32 4 88 3 23 4 35 88 4 1 2 5 1 14 6 4 8 22 0 48 024 4 31 4 21 4 3 1 13 6 6 6 666 4 40 8 50 4 42 48 2 24 5 3 626 6 31 3 2 38 34 4 0 5 1 86 1 18 0 61 2 1 14 2 5 3 15 0

16 1 4 42 6 14 2 4 4 2 13 011 60 8 10 8 3 8 2 2 6 12 36 5

5 4 33 36 3 25 2 18 8 8 1 13 5

2002 2012

81 1 18 4 1 8 2 8 0 3 4 100113 4 6 1 4 8 4 34 5 100132 3 1 0 0 6 0 0 3 2 100

4 135 4 6 5 2 5 5 0 101 2 10033 10 4 10 0 14 2 3 2 28 5 1006 8 10 3 1 5 11 2 8 3 1 0 10013 6 64 6 1 6 2 5 0 3 1 4 10022 6 40 23 4 6 0 2 4 5 1005 6 13 3 2 3 34 3 4 2 13 6 10048 2 53 1 1 16 2 6 33 4 100

2002 2012 2002 2012 2002 2012 2002 2012 2002 2012 2002 2012

16 2 44 8 13 15 8 1 4 1 6 4 0 3 5 4 4 2 2 60 2 32 318 2 43 3 1 8 16 4 1 0 1 2 5 2 5 1 3 0 4 2 52 2 8

1 4 1 8 13 1 3 1 1 2 3 1 3 3 0 1 64 34 12 33 6 41 6 4 8 2 2 1 8 4 3 6 2 8 14 4 4 320 1 23 10 1 10 2 8 5 13 2 13 5 2 6 2 8 46 1 41 146 5 50 0 5 8 6 5 0 3 0 5 5 1 6 0 4 3 4 3 32 033 4 30 8 53 55 3 4 3 6 1 4 2 3 0 3 0 3 3 3 51 5 18 0 2 5 2 1 2 1 5 2 5 3 12 11 1 2 2 418 5 2 5 8 0 4 0 1 2 33 1 33 4 0 6 1 5 3 1 25 0

6 8 11 21 1 24 3 4 4 0 8 6 4 5 1 55 2 44

2013 2013

55

2000

2012

12012

2020

1 20122012 2020 1 2 11

222 3

200

2012 11 0

2000 2010

2012

2 1

2010

2002 20102 3

201356

3 2012

2013

200

2012

2012

2012

102012

2012

57

20122000 3 2010

2 201 20201

2001 2010 20200 2012 2012 2030

200 100 00

2012

2012

2000 3 2010 22020 1

3 3 1 3 1

200

20101 0

2010 20 2012

2 1

2002 2012

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2011

20122012 0

30

32002 12

201358

2013 2013

2000

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2013 200220 2012 21

2013

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1 0 1 02 2 1 0 2011

1 3 20121 0

59

- 2013

2012200

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201

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2003 20122 1 2013 2022 1

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201360

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200

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0 1

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1 2002012

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13

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2002 20012 23

200 201110

2

1999 2012

22012 0 1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

20122000 2002 200 200 200 2010

201362

2

1995-2012

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

63

2 1

1

1

1 3

2002200

200 200

2002 103 1

1

1

1 200

1 33

201364

2 1

1930a

1 30

1 0

1 2

1 2 122 31 1 11 1 3

1 3 2 11 1 2 1 113

1

65

1 3

1 3 1

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1 21 1 0 2 1 2

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2 1

201366

1 1 0

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201110

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200

1

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67

2

11

1

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2013

2001

1

2011

20 2010

10 100

0002011 1 000

2010 3 000

2011 12000 2030

1

201368

3 102010 2

200 1 2020 322030

200 22020 1 2030

22

21

2010

20102 200

030

0

2012

2012

0 2013 12

69

2

2005

2012

2 5

3 0

3 5

4 0

4 5

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1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10

200

印度

中国

巴西

美国

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UNCTAD/TDR/2013

ISSN 0251-8015

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