코로나와 플랫폼 경제 · 2020. 7. 20. · Sacha Arnoud, Director of Engineering (Waymo)...

코로나와플랫폼 경제

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AI 기반 기업의 성장과AI-Lockin-Loop에 따른독과점 경향

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the rise ofthe AI-Powered Companies

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& monopolistic tendenciesbased on AI-Lockin-Loop

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Winners& Losers

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Price Change - First Half 2020:

Amazon(42.9%)

Apple(24.2%)Microsoft(29.0%)

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Price Change - First Half 2020

Boeing: -43.7%

Expedia: -24%

Delta Air Lines: -47.5%United Airlines: -55.4%강정수 8

Price Change - First Half 2020

Zoom; 272.6%

Tesla: 158.1%Nvidia: 61.5%

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코로나COVID-19Pandemic

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Qs!

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Fear & Dread

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fear: [일반적인 공포, 두려움]을 의미dread: 마주하고 싶지 않은,그러나 [마주해야하는 구체적 공포, 두려움]

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in uncertain times불확실의 시대

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Sharp discontinuities

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Before CoronaAfter CoronaPost-Corona

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a cliché

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Fear& Dread

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We start to seeour fellow humanas a potential enemy

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Fear& Dread

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The Stress ofLockdown

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It's not just the viruswe fear

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but the future itself.

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seeing the futurenot as a promisebut as a threat

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Qs!

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climate crisis?

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machine crisis?

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AI-Impact on Productivity

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$13trn

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$13trn? = nearly China's GDP

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AI-Impact = Fire or Electricity

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Is AI reallya world changing technology?

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Will AIhavea world-alteringimpact?강정수 38

AI = machine learninghave mademuch progress.

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in the early 2010srecognizing patterns in data(images, speech, etc.)강정수 40

improved algorithmsmore powerful computersmore data

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powerfulpattern-recognitiontools

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AI= a general-purpose= technology

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affectingentire economies

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Geoffrey Hinton: "in five years", "might be ten years" (2017)

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medical diagnosis?

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CoronaCovid-19

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by handwith telephone callswith shoe leather

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Workers replaced by robots?

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a wave of unemployment

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automation technologiesacceleratedbased on AI-Technology

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automation technologiesaimed at reducing laborby substitutingcheaper capital강정수 56

displacedworkers

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DisplacementEffect

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Lilly Irani“Automation doesn’t

replace labor. (...)It displaces it.”강정수 59

automation technologiesenabled the creation ofnew tasks

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ReinstatementEffect

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Mixed effectson labor demand!

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the future of work?

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a race betweenautomation andnew,labor-intensive tasks강정수 64

task content of productiondisplacement effectreinstatement effect강정수 65

market failurescounterbalancing policies

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Self-driving cars

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Where'smy self-driving car?

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Is the AV TechnologyAround the Corner?

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Sacha Arnoud, Director of Engineering (Waymo) (2018.2)

“When you’re 90% done, you still have 90% to go,”

The first “90% of the technology takes 10% of the time.”

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Risk 1

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Risk 2: safe “islands” around cities

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Gatik

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"The state of AI hypehas far exceeded

the state of AI science,

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the Hype Cycle of Gartner

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Face Recognition

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Black Lives Matter

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AI has beenfar more successful!

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electricityin the 20th century

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the cloudin the 21st century

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AI's potential?!

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the effectof slowingits adoption

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idiot savant

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The AI Technologyneedanother breakthrough!

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AI Winter

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AI summer

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warmer& brighter

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AI-Traps

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NOT:AI winter iscoming again!

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BUTan autumnal breeze

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“When you’re 90% done,you still have 90% to go,”

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Risk 3:Platform-Monopoly

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Monopsony

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AI-Lockin-Loop

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Network Effects▶︎ better Services▶︎ Market Power▶︎ economies of scale강정수 105

abuse of market power

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the best(not good enough)

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The regionalitylost almostall of its relevance.

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vertical integration

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Expanding horizontally

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acqui-hirecompetition reduced

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acquisitions

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The concentration of big tech

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MAFAAsMicrosoft, Apple, Facebook,

Amazon and Alphabet

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outdated definitionof monopoly

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consumer welfarelow prices

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Q: a new competition?

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2 recommendations

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1. no acquisitionWhatsApp, Instagram

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2. Exclusivity clauses

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We need a broad discussion

about economies of scale & network effects

of the digital economy.

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