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7/29/2019 IDirect_Q3FY13
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February 15, 2013
ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research
Result Update
WHAT’S CHANGED…
PRICE TARGET.............. .................................... ......................... Changed from | 35 to | 26
EPS (FY13E) ............................................................................ Changed from | 2.7 to | -4.5
EPS (FY14E) ............................................................................. Changed from | 0.7 to | 0.6
RATING............................................................................................................... Unchanged
Improvement only if asset monetisation
materialises…IVRCL’s Q2FY13 performance was dismal on account of cost overruns,
which were booked during the quarter leading to higher losses. While the
topline at | 1247.2 crore was higher than expected, EBITDA margins at3.6% were below our expectation of 7.4% led by cost overrun of | 57
crore and service tax demand of | 8 crore booked during the quarter.
While the company had a robust order book of ~| 24,900 crore, 5x book
to bill on TTM basis, the dreary execution on account of slow moving
orders and stretched working capital remain a cause for concern. We
believe that BOT asset monetisation, which has been long pending,
remains the key to debt reduction and easing of working capital. We
maintain our SELL rating as we believe that stretched working capital and
levered balance sheet will continue to weigh on valuations.
Dismal margins lead to higher losses…
The topline at | 1247.2 crore was ahead of our estimates given better
execution than expected. The EBITDA margins at 3.6% were below ourexpectation of 7.4% owing to cost overrun of | 57 crore during the
quarter. It also booked service tax demand of | 8 crore. Adjusting for the
cost overruns and service tax, margins were at 8.8%. During the quarter,
IVRCL also wrote off debtors worth | 11 crore while it recovered bad
debts worth | 12 crore. Consequently, the company reported a loss of
| 68.1 crore (our estimates loss of | 43.7 crore).
Order book healthy but execution remains a concern…
IVRCL has bagged orders worth ~| 650 crore in Q2FY13 and the order
book was at ~| 24,900 crore. We highlight that while the order book to
bill ratio works out to 5x on TTM basis, there is presence of slow moving
orders & captive BOT projects execution on which does not seem
possible given funding gap at the current level of levered balance sheet.Stretched working capital to weigh on valuations...
IVRCL has continued to display a dismal execution show as 1/3rdrd of its
order book (including BOT projects) remains slow moving. While the
management has maintained its intention for BOT monetisation to meet
equity infusion, the same has been pending for the last couple of
quarters. We highlight that stretched working capital would continue to
weigh on valuation till such asset monetisation fructify. We maintain SELL
rating on the stock with an SOTP target price of | 26/share.
Exhibit 1: Financial Performance| crore Q2FY13* Q2FY13E* Q3FY12 Q1FY13 YoY Gr (%) QoQ Gr (%)
Net sales 1247.2 1047.0 1183.2 994.7 5.4 25.4
EBITDA 45.1 77.5 75.1 69.9 -39.9 -35.4
EBITDA Margin (%) 3.6 7.4 6.3 7.0 -273 bps -341 bpsDepreciation 21.8 20.6 22.9 20.4 -4.7 6.6
Interest 113.6 105.8 95.8 101.1 18.5 12.3
PAT -68.1 -43.7 6.8 -39.6 LP NA
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
IVRCL Ltd (IVRINF)
| 29
ting matrix
ing : Sell
get : | 26
get Period : 12 months
ential Upside : -10%
y Financials
crore FY11 FY12 * FY13E# FY14E
t sales 5560.9 6143.1 3362.5 6222.8
ITDA 424.0 466.3 207.9 534.4
t profit 157.9 18.1 -138.0 19.7
or 15 months ending June 30, 2012
For 9 months ending March 31, 2013
luation summary
FY11 FY12* FY13E# FY14E
S (|) 5.9 0.6 -4.5 0.6
j PE(x) NA NA NA NA
j Target PE(x) NA NA NA NA
/EBITDA(x) 5.3 6.6 16.7 7.6
BV(x) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
NW(%) 8.2 0.6 -8.6 0.9
CE(%) 11.6 9.0 5.4 8.3
or 15 months ending June 30, 2012
For 9 months ending March 31, 2013
ock data
cap | 890 crore
bt (FY12) | 2,638 crore
sh (FY12) | 88 crore
| 3,439 croreweek H/L | 75/29
uity cap | 61 crore
ce Value | 2.0
Holding (%) 7.2
Holding (%) 28.2
ce movement
0
20
40
60
80
Feb-13Nov-12Aug-12May-12Feb-12
800
2,200
3,600
5,000
6,400
Price (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S)
alyst’s name
eepak Purswani, CFA
eepak.purswani@icicisecurities.com
hupendra Tiwary
hupendra.tiwary@icicisecurities.com
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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2
Q2FY13 Performance…
IVRCL’s Q3FY13 performance was dismal on account of cost
overruns, which were booked during the quarter leading to higher
losses. The topline at | 1247.2 crore was ahead of our estimates given
better execution than expected
EBITDA margins at 3.6% were below our expectation of 7.4% owingto cost overrun of | 57 crore during the quarter. The company also
booked service tax demand of | 8 crore. Adjusting for the cost
overruns and service tax, margins were at 8.8%. During the quarter,
IVRCL also wrote off debtors worth | 11 crore while it recovered bad
debts worth | 12 crore
Consequently, the company reported a loss of | 68.1 crore (our
estimates loss of | 43.7 crore) due to lower margins and higher
interest expenses.
Order book remains healthy, but slow moving orders a grave concern
IVRCL has bagged orders worth ~| 650 crore in Q1FY13 and order
book stands at ~| 24,900 crore. We highlight that while the orderbook to bill ratio works out to 5x on TTM basis, there is the presence
of slow moving orders and captive BOT projects execution on which
does not seem possible given the funding gap
Exhibit 2: Order book remains healthy but slow moving orders a grave concern
2 1 , 7
0 0
2 6 , 0
0 0
2 5 , 0
0 0
2 7 , 7
8 0
2 7 , 1
3 1
2 6 , 3
6 5
2 4 9 0 0
5.0
5.3
5.45.6
4.6
4.6
3.8
0
7,000
14,000
21,000
28,000
Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q5FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13
( | c
r o r e )
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.6
5.0
5.4
5.8
( x )
Order Book (| crore) Order book-to-bill ratio (RHS)
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 3: Transportation & water segment dominates order book with 69% share
38 39 37 34 35 35 34
29 24 29 35 34 34 35
2219
22 20 20 19 195 7 7 6 7 4 4
6
5
5 5 5 8 8
0
25
50
75
100
Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q5FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13
( % )
Water Transportation Buildings Power Others
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
EBITDA margins at 3.6% were also below our expectation
of 7.4% owing to cost overrun of | 57 crore during the
quarter
The order book stands at | 24900 crore
Transportation segment (majority of which is captive BOT
orders) and water dominate the order book with a 69%
share in Q2FY13
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Exhibit 4: Key Assumptions
| crore FY12* FY13E# FY14E
Order inflow 9,474 6,000 6,350
Order Book 27,131 27,226 27,350
Execution rate- Average (%) 24.1 12.4 22.8
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
* For 15 months ending June 30, 2012
# For 9 months ending March 31, 2013
Change in estimates
We have incorporated Q2FY13 performance into our estimates. We now
build in higher losses for FY13 given the dismal performance during the
quarter.
Exhibit 5: Change in estimates
| crore Previous Revised % change Previous Revised % change
Revenues 3362.5 3362.5 0.0 6222.8 6222.8 0.0
EBITDA 266.1 207.9 -21.9 534.4 534.4 0.0
Margin (%) 7.9 6.2 8.6 8.6
PAT -82.8 -138.0 NM 20.2 19.7 -2.3
FY13E# FY14E
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
# For 9 months ending March 31, 2013
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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 4
Valuation
IVRCL has continued to display a dismal execution show as 1/3rd of its
order book (including BOT projects) remains slow moving. While the
management has maintained its intention for BOT monetisation to meet
equity infusion, the same has been pending for the last couple ofquarters. We highlight that stretched working capital would continue to
weigh on valuation till such asset monetisation fructify. We maintain SELL
rating on the stock with an SOTP target price of | 26/share.
Exhibit 7: Valuation metrics
Sales
(| crore)
Sales Gr
(%)
EPS
(|)
EPS Gr
(%)
Adj P/E
(x)
P/BV
(x)
RoNW
(%)
RoCE
(%)
FY11 5560.9 1.5 5.9 -25.2 NA 0.4 8.2 11.6
FY12* 6143.1 10.5 0.6 -90.0 NA 0.4 0.6 9.0
FY13E# 3362.5 -45.3 -4.5 -863.3 NA 0.4 -8.6 5.4
FY14E 6222.8 85.1 0.6 -114.3 NA 0.4 0.9 8.3
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research * For 15 months ending June 30, 2012
# For 9 months ending March 31, 2013
We assign a SELL recommendation on the stock with a
target price of | 26/share based on SOTP valuation
methodology
Exhibit 6: SOTP Valuation
Entity Value (| crore) Per share (|) Comment
Construction 3,206 104 6x FY14E EV/EBITDA
IVRCL Assets & Holding 858 28 At 0.7x FY14E P/B
HDO 56 2Market cap at 20% holding company
discount
Less Net debt (3,320) (108) FY14E Net debt
Fair Value (|) 801 26
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
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Financial summary
Profit and loss statement
(| Crore) FY11 FY12* FY13E# FY14E
Total operating Income 5,560.9 6,143.1 3,362.5 6,222.8
Growth (%) 1.5 10.5 -45.3 85.1
Op. Expenditure 5,136.9 5,676.8 3,154.6 5,688.4
EBITDA 424.0 466.3 207.9 534.4
Growth (%) -17.9 10.0 -55.4 157.1
Depreciation 75.8 118.9 63.1 92.9
EBIT 348.3 347.3 144.8 441.5
Interest 262.7 505.5 322.6 453.4
Other Income 147.1 204.5 55.3 49.8
Extraordinary Item 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PBT 232.6 46.2 -122.5 37.9
Tax 74.7 28.2 15.5 18.2
Rep. PAT before MI 157.9 18.1 -138.0 19.7
Minority Interest (MI) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rep. PAT after MI 157.9 18.1 -138.0 19.7
Adjustments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Adj. Net Profit 157.9 18.1 -138.0 19.7
Growth (%) -25.2 -88.5 -863.3 -114.3
EPS (|) 5.9 0.6 -4.5 0.6
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Cash flow statement
(| Crore) FY11 FY12* FY13E# FY14E
Net Profit before Tax 232.6 46.2 -122.5 37.9
Other Non Cash Exp 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Depreciation 75.8 118.9 63.1 92.9
Direct Tax Paid 165.1 75.7 15.5 18.2
Other Items 223.6 505.5 339.4 503.2
CF before change in WC 366.9 595.1 230.8 516.2
Inc./Dec. In WC -165.9 200.2 49.4 -333.4
CF from Operations 201.0 685.9 280.2 182.8
Pur. of Fix Assets -194.7 -62.7 -40.0 -80.0
Pur. of Inv -30.9 -949.6 -100.0 -300.0
Others -212.8 -66.0 16.8 49.8
CF from Investing -438.4 -1,078.3 -123.2 -330.2
Inc./(Dec.) in Debt 465.1 542.1 210.0 640.0
Inc./(Dec.) in Net Worth 0.0 301.2 0.0 0.0
Others -248.9 -505.5 -322.6 -457.1
CF from Financing 216.2 337.8 -112.6 182.9
Net Cash Flow -21.2 -54.6 44.4 35.5
Opening Cash 164.4 143.2 88.5 132.9
Closing Cash 143.2 88.5 132.9 168.4
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Balance Sheet
(| Crore) FY11 FY12* FY13E# FY14E
Liabilities
Equity Capital 53.4 61.4 61.4 61.4
Reserves & Surplus 1,934.0 2,209.1 2,071.1 2,087.1
Shareholder's Fund 1,987.4 2,270.5 2,132.5 2,148.4Borrowings 1,629.5 2,457.9 2,667.9 3,307.9
Unsecured Loans 466.3 180.0 180.0 180.0
Deferred Tax Liability 8.7 -38.9 -38.9 -38.9
Source of Funds 4,091.8 4,869.6 4,941.5 5,597.5
Assets
Gross Block 924.2 1,011.4 1,051.4 1,131.4
Less: Acc. Depreciation 232.4 321.5 384.5 477.4
Net Block 691.8 689.9 666.8 653.9
Capital WIP 26.0 1.5 1.5 1.5
Net Fixed Assets 717.8 691.4 668.4 655.5
Investments 634.7 1,584.3 1,684.3 1,984.3
Cash 143.2 88.5 132.9 168.4
Trade Receivables 1,929.8 1,925.9 1,473.6 1,937.3
Loans & Advances 953.2 1,425.5 1,350.8 1,703.9
Inventory 273.2 272.3 284.7 291.4
Total Current Asset 5,452.3 5,568.7 5,042.0 5,976.2
Current Liab. & Prov. 2,713.0 2,974.9 2,453.1 3,018.5
Net Current Asset 2,739.3 2,593.8 2,588.9 2,957.8
P&L Account 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Application of Funds 4,091.8 4,869.6 4,941.5 5,597.5
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Key ratios
FY11 FY12* FY13E# FY14E
Per share data (|)
EPS 5.9 0.6 -4.5 0.6
Cash EPS 8.8 4.5 -2.4 3.7
BV 74.4 74.0 69.5 70.0DPS 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
Cash Per Share 5.4 2.9 4.3 5.5
Operating Ratios (%)
EBITDA Margin 7.6 7.6 6.2 8.6
PBT / Total Operating income 4.2 0.8 -3.6 0.6
PAT Margin 2.8 0.3 -4.1 0.3
Inventory days 17 13 40 17
Debtor days 127 92 246 100
Creditor days 103 78 193 76
Return Ratios (%)
RoE 8.2 0.6 -8.6 0.9
RoCE 11.6 9.0 5.4 8.3
RoIC 5.4 2.7 0.5 -2.8Valuation Ratios (x)
PE (x) 4.8 48.1 NA 44.1
Adjusted PE (x) NA NA NA NA
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.3 6.6 16.7 7.6
EV/Sales (x) 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.7
Price to Book Value 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Solvency Ratios
Debt/EBITDA 4.9 5.7 13.7 6.5
Debt / Equity 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5
Current Ratio 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
* For 15 months ending June 30, 2012
# For 9 months ending March 31, 2013
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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 6
Company Description
Established in 1990, IVRCL Ltd is a leading Indian construction companyheadquartered in Hyderabad. IVRCL operates in four segments namelywater & irrigation, buildings & industrial, transportation and power. It has
a robust order book of ~| 24,900 crore, 5x book to bill on TTM basis. It
also has Hindustan Dorr-Oliver (HDO) as a subsidiary, which executesengineering solutions and EPC projects in liquid-solid separationapplications.
Exhibit 8: Recommendation History
0
20
40
60
80
100
Feb-13Jan-13Nov-12Oct-12Aug-12Jul-12May-12Apr-12
Price Target Price
Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 9: Recent Releases
Date Event CMP Target Price Rating
15-Feb-12 Q3FY12 Result Update 60 56 Hold
3-Apr-12 Q4FY12 Result Preview 69 56 Sell
12-Apr-12 Q4FY12 Result Preview 74 72 Hold
16-May-12 Q4FY12 Result Update 47 44 Hold
30-Aug-12 Q5FY12 Result Update 39 39 Hold
12-Nov-12 Q1FY13 Result Update 40 35 Hold
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Construction)CMP M Cap
(|) TP(|) Rating (| Cr) FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E
HCC (HINCON) 17 15 Sell 1,010 -1.9 -2.5 -1.8 NA NA NA 12.0 13.6 12.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 -15.7 -9.0 -9.4
IVRCL (IVRINF) 29 26 Sell 904 0.6 -4.5 0.6 48.1 NA 44.1 6.6 16.7 7.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 -8.6 0.9
NCC (NAGCON) 41 45 Hold 1,040 1.4 2.3 2.3 13.0 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.3 7.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 2.3
Simplex Infra (SIMCON) 162 262 Buy 802 18.0 17.1 23.9 10.9 11.5 8.2 5.8 5.6 5.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 7.8 7.1 8.8
Supreme Infra (SUPINF) 212 330 Buy 359 54.8 64.2 85.2 4.4 3.8 2.8 4.7 4.0 3.4 1.3 1.0 0.8 24.7 22.6 23.1
Unity Infra (UNIINF) 36 53 Buy 266 14.0 12.5 10.5 2.7 3.0 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 14.8 11.8 9.0
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Sector / Company
EPS (|) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/B (x) RoE (%)
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CICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns
ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them
as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional
arget price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.
Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;
Buy: > 10%/ 15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;
Hold: Up to +/-10%;
Sell: -10% or more;
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,ICICI Securities Limited,1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,Road No. 7, MIDC,Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com
We /I, Deepak Purswani CFA, PGDM (FINANCE) Bhupendra Tiwary MBA (FINANCE) research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this
esearch report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to
he specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities Inc.
CICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) and its affiliates are a full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management and brokerage and financing group. We along with affiliates are leading
nderwriter of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our affiliates have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of
ompanies covered by our Investment Research Department. Our research professionals provide important input into our investment banking and other business selection processes. ICICI Securities
enerally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their dependent family members from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts
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he information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and
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CICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the
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is confirmed that Deepak Purswani CFA, PGDM (FINANCE) Bhupendra Tiwary MBA (FINANCE) research analysts and the authors of this report or any of their family members does not serve as an officer,
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