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MSE602 ENGINEERING INNOVATION MANAGEMENT. TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING. TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING. “Those who cannot remember the past are fated to repeat it” George Santayana “If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants” Isaac Newton - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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MSE602 ENGINEERING INNOVATION MANAGEMENT
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING
“Those who cannot remember the pastare fated to repeat it”
George Santayana
“If I have seen further, it is by standing onthe shoulders of giants”
Isaac Newton
“The question that faces the long range planner is not what we should do tomorrow, it is - what do we have to do today to be ready for an uncertain tomorrow?”
Peter Drucker
WHAT ISTECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING?
The description or prediction,
using a logic that yields relatively consistent results,
of a foreseeable technological innovation, specific scientific refinement, or likely scientific discovery,
that promises to serve some useful function,
with some indication of the most probable time of occurrence.
USES OFTECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING
Identify developments
Time scale estimation
Policy reorientation
Operational decision making
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTINGCONTEXT
BASIC TYPES OF TECHNIQUES
EXPLORATORYextend the past
NORMATIVEstart from the future
COMBINATIONusually necessary
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING METHODS
S - CURVE
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING METHODS
ENVELOPE CURVE
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING METHODS
PRECURSOR TRENDS
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING METHODS
DELPHI
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING METHODS
SCENARIOS
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING METHODS
TECHNOLOGY MONITORING
Existence Awareness
Impact Speculation
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING METHODS
RELEVANCE TREES
TYPICAL PITFALLS
Unexamined assumptionsLimited or misplaced expertiseLack of imaginationNeglect of constraintsExcessive optimismMechanical extrapolationOverspecification
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND CREATIVE THOUGHT
CREATIVE THOUGHT
ATTRIBUTE ANALYSIS
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Adapt … Modify … Magnify … Reduce
… Substitute … Rearrange … Reverse
… Combine … Other uses …
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CREATIVE THOUGHT
MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS
THE DANGERS OF BEING CUSTOMER-LED
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