MSE602 ENGINEERING INNOVATION MANAGEMENT

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING

“Those who cannot remember the pastare fated to repeat it”

George Santayana

“If I have seen further, it is by standing onthe shoulders of giants”

Isaac Newton

“The question that faces the long range planner is not what we should do tomorrow, it is - what do we have to do today to be ready for an uncertain tomorrow?”

Peter Drucker

WHAT ISTECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING?

The description or prediction,

using a logic that yields relatively consistent results,

of a foreseeable technological innovation, specific scientific refinement, or likely scientific discovery,

that promises to serve some useful function,

with some indication of the most probable time of occurrence.

USES OFTECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING

Identify developments

Time scale estimation

Policy reorientation

Operational decision making

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTINGCONTEXT

BASIC TYPES OF TECHNIQUES

EXPLORATORYextend the past

NORMATIVEstart from the future

COMBINATIONusually necessary

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING METHODS

S - CURVE

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING METHODS

ENVELOPE CURVE

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING METHODS

PRECURSOR TRENDS

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING METHODS

DELPHI

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING METHODS

SCENARIOS

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING METHODS

TECHNOLOGY MONITORING

Existence Awareness

Impact Speculation

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING METHODS

RELEVANCE TREES

TYPICAL PITFALLS

Unexamined assumptionsLimited or misplaced expertiseLack of imaginationNeglect of constraintsExcessive optimismMechanical extrapolationOverspecification

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND CREATIVE THOUGHT

CREATIVE THOUGHT

ATTRIBUTE ANALYSIS

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Adapt … Modify … Magnify … Reduce

… Substitute … Rearrange … Reverse

… Combine … Other uses …

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CREATIVE THOUGHT

MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

THE DANGERS OF BEING CUSTOMER-LED