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Focus is monitoring Ecosystems Species Genes Ecosystem services Page 3
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Page 1
Model interoperations:Community models, models as
services, and model webs
NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team MeetingNew York
8 May 2009
Gary GellerJet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
(c) 2009 California Institute of Technology. Government sponsorship acknowledged.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
GEO Biodiversity Observation Network
Global network…• Of interoperating biodiversity observation
systems Collect, manage, analyze, share data on status of
the world’s biodiversity
Scholes et al., Science 321: 22 August 2008, Toward a Global Biodiversity Observing System Page 2
Focus is monitoring
Ecosystems Species Genes Ecosystem services
Page 3
Primary tasks
1. Integrate existing observation systems2. Coordinate sampling efforts3. Fill in sampling gaps4. Integrate and add analytical/visualization tools5. Combine remote sensing and in situ data
Page 4
Concept is all-inclusive Very ambitious Organic and opportunistic Long-term Community-driven and coordinated
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Self assessment
Concepts published Implementation approach articulated Detailed implementation planning underway
• Ecosystems• Species• Genes• Terrestrial• Marine• Aquatic
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Status
Sound interesting?
Page 7
Model interoperations:Community models, models as
services, and model webs
NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team MeetingNew York
8 May 2009
Gary GellerJet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
(c) 2009 California Institute of Technology. Government sponsorship acknowledged.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Page 8
Overview
Ecological questions Greater model integration
• Community modeling• Models as services• Model Web
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General questions
1.What will change?
2.What will be the consequences of those changes?
Page 10
Specific examples USFWS: Should pika be listed as threatened / endangered? BCC: What are the ecological and social implications of
complete “build-out” in Boulder according to the existing regional zoning plan?
USNPS: Where should we burn? Will we violate AQ standards in the Central Valley?
NGOs: What areas in Asia should be the focus of conservation efforts to save the tiger and its habitat?
USGEO: What are the consequences of alternative land management practices on biological diversity in the context of climate change?
NEON: How do changes in the availability and distribution of the nation’s water affect ecological systems?
DS: How will the boreal forest shift as temperature and precipitation change at high latitudes? What will be the impacts on animal migration patterns and invasive species?
How will social and economic factors change forest cover
of Peruvian Amazon by 2020?
What effect will various management options have on the
critical values of my park? What do we need to do to restore the landscape of an
overgrazed African ecosystem?
How will climate change and socioeconomic factors affect
infection rates of vector-borne diseases?
How will increased development and forest fragmentation
effect the abundance of a forest-dependent bird species?
What areas in Burma should be targeted to protect the
critically endangered Gurney's Pitta?
How much will sea level rise?
How will water availability be affected, by annual and
seasonal measures? Do we need to build more reservoirs?
How will urban temperatures in SF be changed?
How will fire risk and intensity be affected?
How will snowfall be affected? How will flood risk be affected?
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How many of these questions can be easily answered, or explored, now?
Can a resource manager easily get information on these topics?
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Limiting factors
Science and observations
Isolated models—limited interoperability
Limited sharingLimited access
Cultural barriers are much more limitingthan technical ones
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“The need for community modeling”
More sharing / improved access Less reinvention Facilitates new science Enhances integrated management and decision
support
Adapted from: J Famiglietti et al 2008. CUAHSI’s efforts towards a Community Hydrologic Modeling Platform (CHyMP) in the USA
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Should we encourage more community ecological models?
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Models as services
Service: provision of a product upon request Service Oriented Architecture
ConsumerServiceProvider
Servicerequest
Information
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Models as (web) services
Data provider: Standard method for data sharing• Well-known technology
Data consumer: Improved access• To people• To other models
Not for
all m
odels
Page 17
Models as services
GCMsPhysical
oceanography
Anchovypopulation
Biochemical /primary producers
Bluefin tunapopulation
Page 18
Models as services
GCMsPhysical
oceanography
Anchovypopulation
Biochemical /primary producers
Bluefin tunapopulation
Model web
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Benefits
More sharing / improved access Less reinvention Facilitates new science Enhances integrated management and decision
support
Greater modeler interaction More users more feedback faster improvement
Web 2.0
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Web 2.0
Web 2.0• Collaboration • Communities• Interactivity, feedback• “Collective intelligence”
Web 3.0?• Semantic Web Model Web
~Community
models
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Summary
Need more model interoperabilityCommunity modelingModels as servicesRoom for Web 2.0Longer term: model web?
Think big, start small, start soon
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