Alternative Futures in Higher Education

Productivity, core missions and impacts – Alternatives and partnerships

Dr. Jamie Mackay | Business Development Manager for HEJamie.Mackay@economicmodelling.co.uk | 07740 344750

I. Background

II. Good data is key

III. Where East meets West

IV. Post-Graduation

V. Discussion

Outline

Background

Alternative

futures for HE

HE provision marketpla

ce

Productivity +

Employability

Devolution

revolution

4

The HE provision market place

Providers• Universities• Alternative / Private Providers• Colleges• In-house• Overseas

Delivery models• Traditional• Part-time• Online• Blended• Work-based

Market• Supply - students• Demand - business• Both

5

Productivity and Employability

“We need to develop skills in interaction with business and in preparing students for the work world.”

-Liz ShuttUniversity Alliance, 2015

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>

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Fixing the Foundations (BIS, 2015): Cites the need for universities to contribute more to economic growth by building better and more direct links with industryTuition Fees: Focusing students’ minds. Reflected in Graduate Careers Survey 2015 and HESA data on subject uptake

Universities being encouraged not only to impact on productivity but also improve employability of their students

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The Devolution Revolution• November 2015: ‘devolution

revolution’ heralded at Spending Review

• Kevin Richardson (HEFCE) providing running commentary on developments (e.g. Six Regional Investment Opportunities for HE - European Investment Bank, UKTI, Combined Authority Investment Funds, Devolved Business Rates…)

• Local Enterprise Partnerships are key.

“Universities must join forces with employers in their regions to produce graduates who meet the changing needs of industry.”

-Mike Boxall The Guardian, February 2016

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• To align with needs of regional economy, universities first need to understand what those needs are

• Good Labour Market Intelligence can uncover those needs by tapping into industry and occupation trends:

Good data is key: • Which industries are set

to grow the most over the next few years?

• Which graduate occupations do these industries employ?

• How do our courses compare to the needs of our regional economy?

Where East meets West

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The most beautiful and powerful presentation ever

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2.1m

Jobs (2015)

£21.5k

Average Earnings (2015)

4.7mPopulation (2015)

The East MidlandsExports:£141.54b

Exports & Imports (2015)

Imports:£87.2b

Where East meets West

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The most beautiful and powerful presentation ever

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2.5m

Jobs (2015)

£23.2k

Average Earnings (2015)

5.7mPopulation (2015)

The West MidlandsExports:£176.96b

Exports & Imports (2015)

Imports:£101.72b

East Midlands | Top industries

040,00080,000

120,000 106,471

64,13191,604

71,96237,607

112,220

69,15495,830

74,45239,482

2016 Jobs 2019 Jobs

What are the top five industries forecast to grow, 2016-19?

West Midlands | Top industriesWhat are the top five industries forecast to grow, 2016-19?

040,00080,000

120,00075,595

118,714

38,91863,264

30,555

82,324

125,210

41,82766,051

33,310

2016 Jobs 2019 Jobs

Within the top Industries, what are the top five occupations (level 3+) forecast to grow, 2016-19?

010,00020,00030,000

31,830

18,821

6,890 3,8289,485

33,218

19,693

7,410 4,2499,905

Employed in Industry Group (2016) Employed in Industry Group (2019)

East Midlands | Top occupations

010,00020,00030,00040,000 38,941

20,4177,442 12,551

2,924

40,700

21,4928,044 13,086

3,324

Employed in Industry Group (2016) Employed in Industry Group (2019)

West Midlands | Top occupationsWithin the top Industries, what are the top five occupations (level 3+) forecast to grow, 2016-19?

Degree Apprenticeships

Reference: http://www.managers.org.uk/insights/news/2016/march/parents-degree-apprenticeships-better-than-oxbridge

Degree Apprenticeships

Reference: http://agr.org.uk/news/graduate-recruitment-slows-down-as-apprenticeships-take-off#.VunyFsc5Qdf

Degree Apprenticeships

“Understand what the demand for a degree apprenticeship looks like through use of national and local information on priority sectors, skills shortages and labour market trends. Engage with strategically important employers and work closely with local enterprise partnerships (LEPs) and other stakeholders (such as local authorities).”

| Universities UK, March 2016

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Post-Graduation

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Graduatemigration*(2012-13)

• Loyals – Graduates who goto university in the regionwhere they live, and who areworking in that same regionsix months after completingtheir degree

• Returners – Those who studyoutside their home region, andthen return to that region towork after graduating

• Stayers – Those who study outside their home region and then stay in that region to work

• Incomers – Those who work in a region in which they neither studied nor were domiciled * Reference: Ball, C. 2015. Loyals

, Stayers, Returners and Incomers: Graduate migration patterns. HECSU.

The graduate class of 2015*

2.

1. 4.+3.3% graduates hired by The Times Top 100 Graduate Employers in 2015, compared to 2014: smaller than expected.

Graduates turning down or reneging job offers (1,000 positions left unfilled in 2015)

32% of 2016 roles expected to be filled by those with work experience of the organisations (e.g. internships, placements etc.)

3.Top employers intend to expand graduate recruitment by 7.5% in 2016 (fourth consecutive year)

* Reference: High Fliers Research. 2016. The Graduate Market in 2016.

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Where will Graduates work?

Business local unit size distribution | East Midlands

Business local unit size distribution | West Midlands

1

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000

1

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Will Graduates settle for one

career?• Generation Y Graduates* (born

1980-95) expect swift career advancement and support for these progressions

• Implications are that future generations will look to move around in the workforce

• Implications for ongoing, lifelong learning: From universities, perhaps?

Reference: https://www.ashridge.org.uk/getattachment/Faculty-Research/Research/Current-Research/Research-Projects/Great-Expectations-Managing-Generation-Y/GENY-Report-2011.pdf

Social mobility“This report is a wake-up call for educators and employers as well as policy-makers, both local and national. If social mobility is to take off, much more will need to be done if there is to be a level playing field of opportunity in our country. The gulf between the ambition of a one nation Britain and today’s reality of a divided Britain is far too wide.”

| Alan Milburn, Chairman,Social Mobility and Child Poverty, January 2016

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Discussion1. Productivity: Employability

2. Core Missions: Provision & impact

3. Progression pathways: Schools, Colleges, LEPs, Business, Alumni

Thank YouDr. Jamie MackayJamie.Mackay@economicmodelling.co.uk 07740 344750www.economicmodelling.co.uk