Fertility Paraguay

2009

Trends in fertility in Paraguay

Patricia Lima PereiraEuropubhealth - Jagiellonian University Medical College

Krakow, November 2009

Content1. Sources of Information2. Trends in Fertility - Age Specific Fertility

Rate

3. Assessing Validity of Data

4. Improvement in Education5. Demographic Factors: Residence,

Education, Language Spoken, Age of Fist Marriage

6. Contraceptive Use Prevalence

7. Projection into the Future

8. Remaining Questions

1

Sources of information

1

Survey each 4 years From 1990 to 2008With assistance of the CDC

2

Trends in fertility

Evolution of Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

2

Age specific fertility rate, in three periods of time

Trends in fertility 2

19,2%

16%%19%%

51%%

1990

20082004

Sources: 1960–72: Census 1972. 1977: Encuesta de Prevalencia de Anticonceptivos (1977). 1979: Encuesta Nacional de Fecundidad (1979). 1982: Census1982. 1987: Encuesta Nacional de Planificación Familiar (1987). 1990: Encuesta Nacional de Demografía y Salud (1990). 1995: Encuesta Nacional de Demografíay Salud Reproductiva (1995–96). 1998: Encuesta Nacional de Salud Materno Infantil (1998). 2004: Encuesta Demográfica y de Salud Materna Infantil (2004).

Trends in fertility 2

3

• “Fertility Decline in Paraguay” Kanako Ishida, Paul Stupp, and Mercedes Melian (Studies in Family Planning 2009; 40[3]: 227–234)

Assessing validity of data 3

Why such a dramatically decrease in just one decade?

if…

• There is no substantial changes in Paraguay during the past decade in other development indicators

• Same child mortality • Same socioeconomic levels • No political agenda for family planning programs

Assessing validity of data 3

They conclude that this decline is inversely related to

• a significant increase in the education level of Paraguayan women

• and increase in the prevalence of modern methods of contraception.

Assessing validity of data 3

4

Educational level of women 4

5

Other demographic factors 5Total Fertility Rate, according to residence, education level and

lenguage spoken in the household. 2008

5Residence

Education level

5

Language spoken in the home

30%GUARANI

36%SPANISH

ANDGUARANI

531%SPANISH

Age of first marriage 5married before 20 years of age

Aged 40 – 44

44% Aged 20 - 24

33%

6

Contraceptive prevalence

672,8%

among married women

6Contraceptive Prevalence Rates

among married women over time

Contraceptive prevalence rate

Total Fertility Rates and Contraceptive Prevalence Rates are closely and inversely correlated

7

Will this trend of fertility declinecontinue?

7

Reproductive Preference and Projection into the

Future7

Proyección de la Población Nacional por Sexo y Edad, 2000-2050. DGEEC 2005

7

Remaining questions8• What factors determinate that

contraceptive use became widely accepted by the various sectors of the Paraguayan population?

• Why women in Guarani-speaking homes report such higher mean number of children?

Thanks you