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…ENNEN, NYT JA TULEVAISUUDESSA
17.2.2016Smart Energy Transition –seminaari,Aalto-yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu
Pasi Vainikka
Johtava tutkija, VTTDosentti, LUT
/ TOPICS 1. COP21. What did we agree?
2. Energy and electricity
3. Architecture• Physical• Internet of energy
4. The energy market. Pricing.
5. Energy security & Warfare
What did we agree in Paris 2015?
Country pledges for 2030
/ THE OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SOURCES
NUCLEAR
CCS
RENEWABLES
/ARCHITECTURE
SOLAR AND WIND
NEOCARBONISATION
BRIDGING
STORAGE
/ LESSON #1: COMBUSTION IS HISTORY, ELECTRIFY EVERYTHING
ENERGY MARKET = ELECTRICITY MARKET
CONSUMPTION & PRODUCTION
/ HOW DOES IT LOOK IN
OPERATION
Source: Nordpool, 2012
Production follows consumption every second
Finland, February 2012
Case: East Japan 2050
Source: Breyer, C., Bogdanov, D., 2014. North-East Asian Super Grid for 100% Renewable Energy power supply.
/ IT’S THE INTERNET OF EVERYTHING, MAN
THE ENERGY CLOUD
RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL
POWER PLANT
ONE-WAY POWER SYSTEM
TRANSMISSION
/ LESSON #2: A REAL TIME ELECTRICITY MARKET CAN BE
ESTABLISHED
SO REAL TIME, IT IS IN FACT A POWER MARKET
/ EXAPLE OF PROGRESS
/ DENMARK JULY 2015
From hourly averages 2015 Q1-Q2: - Wind from consumption: ’ONLY’ 43%- For selected hours 140% from consumption- Capacity factor: 34%, 2940h- Installed capacity: 4900 MW
/ LESSON #3: HOW THE PRICE IS FORMED? VALUE IS
IN THE SERVICES
END OF THE ’BRETTON WOODS OF ENERGY’
/ ENERGY SECURITY
• It is a 80% fossil world
THE ENERGY CLOUD
RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL
POWER PLANT
ONE-WAY POWER SYSTEM
TRANSMISSION
/ LESSON #4: ENERGY SECURITY GETS A NEW
MEANING
FROM PHYSICAL ASYMMETRY TO CYBER SECURITY
/ DO WE KNOW HOW GOOD THE MARGINAL ENERGY ONLY MARKET IS IN CAPACITY ADDITIONS?
Historical power generation capacityFIN+SWE+NOR
1950-1980
Capacity additionsFIN+SWE+NOR
Capacity additionsNOR
Capacity additionsSWE
Capacity additionsFIN
/ LESSON #5: (CURRENT) MARKET BASED CAPACITY
ADDITIONS DO NOT MAKE SENSE
AND WE HAVE NOT EVEN DISCUSSED CONSUMPTION &
STORAGE YET
http://www.hs.fi/paakirjoitukset/a1455255331872
/ TOPICS 1. COP21. What did we agree?
2. Energy and electricity
3. Architecture• Physical• Internet of energy
4. The energy market. Pricing.
5. Energy security & Warfare
EMISSION-FREEFUTURE NOW
AVAILABLE
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