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Increased frequency of major heatwaves and
droughts in the Mediterranean
Ricardo Machado Trigo
(IDL, University of Lisbon)
Acknowledgments:
David Barriopedro, Ricardo Garcia Herrera, Sergio Vicente Serrano, Célia Gouveia
Erich Fischer, Juerg Luterbacher, Pedro Sousa, Ana Bastos
Paris 7-10 June 2015
The most intense drought:
• Lisbon (since 1865)
• Madrid (since 1859)
● D
● C
Garcia-Herrera et al. (2007)
1. The outstanding 2004-2005 drought in IBERIA
Garcia-Herrera et al (2007)
J.Hydrometeorology
The role of
NAO and EA!!
EA = -1.2
EA = -1.7
NAO = 1.2
NAO = 1.5
Vienna - EGU2010 (Trigo et al., 2010)
2. The intense 2007-2009 drought in the Fertile Crescent
Accumulated monthly precipitation averaged over the FC during two consecutive hydrological years.
Trigo et al. (2013)
3. Another major 2011-2012 drought in IBERIA?
Detrended time series of wheat and barley yields for Portugal and Spain
2005 2012
(in preparation et al. 2015)
Observed precipitation changes in the Mediterranean (1902-2010)
Winter (NDJFMA) Precipitation variability
for the Mediterranean area (red line)
Observed change of winter Precipitation
(1971:2010) – (1902:1970)
Hoerling et al. (2012)
a
b
Tem
per
atu
re (
ºC)
Tem
per
atu
re a
no
mal
y (
ºC)
1 Aug – 15 Aug
(Trigo et al., 2005, GRL) Garcia-Herrera et al. (2010)
1. The 2003 summer heatwave in Iberia/western Europe
2007
Amraoui et al. (2013)
16 – 30 AUG 2007
2) The summer 2007 heatwave in central Mediterranean
3)The summer 2010 heatwave in Russia / Black sea
Multiproxy temp [Luterb. (2004)] 1500-2002
Temperature [GISS NASA] 2003-2010
Barriopedro et al. (2011, SCIENCE)
The height and the color of
the bars indicate the anomaly
and the record-holding
decade, respectively, for the
period:
a) 1500-2000;
b) 1500-2010.
Spatial distribution of the hottest European summers since 1500
Barriopedro et al. (2011, SCIENCE)
(Vautard et al. 2007, GRL)
Precipitation anomalies during the 10 strongest heatwave years
Maximum temp. difference between southerly and northerly winds
January-April May June
Miralles et al. (2014
Nature Geoscience)
Summary
1. The Western (Eastern) Europe heatwave of summer of
2003 (2007) was exceptional at the monthly/seasonal,
but also at the weekly and daily scales.
2. The Eastern Europe heatwave of summer of 2010 was
even more outstanding than 2003/2007 at the weekly-
monthly-seasonal scales.
3. The Mediterranean basin is getting drier and drought
frequency is bound to increase during the 21st
Century.
4. Regional Climate Models predict more intense
heatwaves and drought episodes for the Mediterranean.
Obrigado! Thanks!
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