Increased frequency of major heatwaves and

droughts in the Mediterranean

Ricardo Machado Trigo

(IDL, University of Lisbon)

Acknowledgments:

David Barriopedro, Ricardo Garcia Herrera, Sergio Vicente Serrano, Célia Gouveia

Erich Fischer, Juerg Luterbacher, Pedro Sousa, Ana Bastos

Paris 7-10 June 2015

The most intense drought:

• Lisbon (since 1865)

• Madrid (since 1859)

● D

● C

Garcia-Herrera et al. (2007)

1. The outstanding 2004-2005 drought in IBERIA

Garcia-Herrera et al (2007)

J.Hydrometeorology

The role of

NAO and EA!!

EA = -1.2

EA = -1.7

NAO = 1.2

NAO = 1.5

Vienna - EGU2010 (Trigo et al., 2010)

2. The intense 2007-2009 drought in the Fertile Crescent

Accumulated monthly precipitation averaged over the FC during two consecutive hydrological years.

Trigo et al. (2013)

3. Another major 2011-2012 drought in IBERIA?

Detrended time series of wheat and barley yields for Portugal and Spain

2005 2012

(in preparation et al. 2015)

Observed precipitation changes in the Mediterranean (1902-2010)

Winter (NDJFMA) Precipitation variability

for the Mediterranean area (red line)

Observed change of winter Precipitation

(1971:2010) – (1902:1970)

Hoerling et al. (2012)

a

b

Tem

per

atu

re (

ºC)

Tem

per

atu

re a

no

mal

y (

ºC)

1 Aug – 15 Aug

(Trigo et al., 2005, GRL) Garcia-Herrera et al. (2010)

1. The 2003 summer heatwave in Iberia/western Europe

2007

Amraoui et al. (2013)

16 – 30 AUG 2007

2) The summer 2007 heatwave in central Mediterranean

3)The summer 2010 heatwave in Russia / Black sea

Multiproxy temp [Luterb. (2004)] 1500-2002

Temperature [GISS NASA] 2003-2010

Barriopedro et al. (2011, SCIENCE)

The height and the color of

the bars indicate the anomaly

and the record-holding

decade, respectively, for the

period:

a) 1500-2000;

b) 1500-2010.

Spatial distribution of the hottest European summers since 1500

Barriopedro et al. (2011, SCIENCE)

(Vautard et al. 2007, GRL)

Precipitation anomalies during the 10 strongest heatwave years

Maximum temp. difference between southerly and northerly winds

January-April May June

Miralles et al. (2014

Nature Geoscience)

Summary

1. The Western (Eastern) Europe heatwave of summer of

2003 (2007) was exceptional at the monthly/seasonal,

but also at the weekly and daily scales.

2. The Eastern Europe heatwave of summer of 2010 was

even more outstanding than 2003/2007 at the weekly-

monthly-seasonal scales.

3. The Mediterranean basin is getting drier and drought

frequency is bound to increase during the 21st

Century.

4. Regional Climate Models predict more intense

heatwaves and drought episodes for the Mediterranean.

Obrigado! Thanks!