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Doctoraal proefschrift Niels Groen
(Universiteit van Maastricht)
Grip op escalatie van publieke IT-projecten
Hoe worden publieke IT-projecten onbeheersbaar, en
hoe kan het worden voorkomen en opgelost?
Theoretisch model voor projectescalatie
5
Commitment to the course of
action
Ineffectiveness of the course of
action
(E-government) project
escalation
COMBINEDWITH
IS CONTINGENTUPON
IS CONTINGENT
UPON
Contingency theory
Esca
latio
n th
eory
IS CONTINGENTUPON
? ?
Contingenties in e-overheidsprojecten die leiden tot ineffectiviteit
Technische complexiteit Adoptieproblemen Conflict tussen belanghebbenden
Coördinatie- en communicatieproblemen
Veranderende eisen
Contingenties in e-overheidsprojecten die leiden tot commitment
Sunk cost effect Voltooïngseffect Zelfrechtvaardiging
Informatieasymmetrie Optimisme en risicozoekend gedrag
Sociale en politieke druk
De rol van verschillende contingenties in geëscaleerde en niet-geëscaleerde projecten
8
105
Escalated Non-escalated
Project D
Project S
Project T
Project Q
Project P
Dri
ving
inef
fect
iven
ess
Tech. comp.
✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
Adoption ✔
Conflict ✔
Coord. and com.
✔
Changing / new req.
✔ ✔ ✔
Dri
ving
com
mitm
ent
Sunk cost ✔
Comp. eff. ✔
Self-just. ✔ ✔
Inf. asym. ✔ ✔ ✔
Opt. and risk. bias.
✔ ✔
Pol. and soc. pres.
Table 2.7 – Salience of contingencies driving ineffectiveness or commitment in escalated and non-escalated projects
Theoretisch model voor het voorkomen van projectescalatie 9
117
Theoretical framework
Following the aforemention line of reasoning, the theoretical framework for this study is constructed and depicted in Figure 3-1.
Figure 3-1 - Theoretical framework for prevention of e-government project escalation
Circumventing commitment to the
course of action
(E-government) project escalation
Escalation theory
Re-directing the course of action or terminating when faced with project
ineffectiveness
PREVENTS
Practices XYZ
ARE EFFECTIVE IN
Diminishing the likelihood of sunk cost
effect, completion effect, information asymmetry, self-justification, and
optimism and risk-seeking biases
ALLOWS FOR
ALLOWS FOR
Con
tinge
ncy
theo
ry
Technieken die de waarschijnlijkheid van commitment aan een falende aanpak reduceren
10
143
Figure 3-5 - Difference in business value delivery
The difference between traditional approaches and the agile approach applied in project O with regard to the timing of business value delivery is visually depicted in Figure 3-5. TP3.2 A short-cycled feedback loop, involving tangible and
demonstrable results every four weeks, diminishes the likelihood of contingencies that promote commitment through lack or distortion of information, such information asymmetry, optimism bias, or completion effect.
146
The difference between the agile approach of project O and more traditional approaches in terms of visibility is visually depicted in Figure 3-6.
Figure 3-6 - Difference in visibility
Concluding, the findings of the study presented in this chapter suggest that e-government project escalation can be prevented by diminishing the likelihood of contingencies that drive commitment to a certain course of action. As it is supported that even successful, non-escalating e-government projects will be faced with contingencies that have a negative effect on the
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