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In this first lecture we set the tone for the course and define the themes that we will be looking at. Technology is one of the major factors in change. There are other factors that transform societies but this is the one we will be focusing on. History has many examples of how companies fail to recognize new technology and find ways to dismiss it, only to find their market share drop and eventually they loose out. Why do executives of these companies fail?
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Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 1
New Technology
Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 2
Stephen Elop, CEO Nokia
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In 2002 Nokia had 35% of the worlds mobile market
In 2006 Nokia had 73.6% of the worlds smartphone market
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Falling from glory
Nokia stock price 2007-2011
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The iPhone Effect
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Shift in power
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Shift in power
Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 9Flickr! photo by Micky.!
Early 2011, Elop said in a memo they were standing on a burning platform
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February 11th 2011, Nokia announced a partnership with Microsoft
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Western Union 18787,500 offices12.000 employees200,000 miles of cable
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Alexander G. Bell, 1876
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"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us."
- Western Union internal memo, 1876.
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Britannica 1990Sales: $650 million
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By January 2010, Blockbuster operated 5,200 stores worldwide
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By September 2010, Blockbuster files for bankruptcy
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Technology is one of the
major factors in change
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In the next few years about billion people will connect for the first time to the InternetTV stations as we know them will go out of businessCDs and DVDs are not the future distribution format for musicPrinted newspapers will go out of businessMobile phones will dominate Internet trafficSocial networks will be shape the next generation in more ways than we see todayReal-time news will be handled by people not news organizationE-books will take overCredit cards will disappearCars will be self-drivenPrinting object at home
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Technology Trends
“Life is lived forward but understood backwards”- Sören Kierkegaard
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Disruptive Technologies
“In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual.”
- Galileo Galilie
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19952000
2010
Internet browsingWeb 2.0 Social
The Digital Decade
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There is a fundamental cultural shift taking place
Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
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Every48 hours as much
content is created as since the dawn of man though 2004
28Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
If your business has not been disrupted by the Internet, it will
The digital online world
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2000 2010
iMac iPhoneMac OS 9.0.4500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB MemoryScreen - 786K pixelsStorage - 30GB Hard Drive
iOS 4.01 Ghz ARM A4 CPU, 512MB MemoryScreen - 614K pixelsStorage - 32GB Flash Drive
Source: Ars Technical Images: Apple
Digital lifestyl
e
Digitalonline World
The Cloud
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WorkMore
informationFocused
Digital Online World
BrowsingConsuming
content
CheckingMobileNow
ConsumingVideo
Information
ReadingConsuming
content
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How can we predict technology?
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