Crunching Numbers for Low Carbon Transport in Asia!

Transforming Transportation 2014!

!   Presented at Transforming Transportation 2014!

!   Sudhir Gota!!   Lee Schipper Scholar (2013)!

Crunching Numbers for Low Carbon Transport in Asia

Sudhir Gota Lee Schipper Scholar (2013) Transforming Transportation 16 January 2014 Washington,D.C.  

Lee  Schipper  1947-­‐2011  

Brazil = 40-50 million vehicles

emits 148 MT of CO2

India = 90-100 million vehicles

emits 145 MT of CO2

Common sense ?

“Top-down is accurate while bottom-up estimates unreliable especially in countries with limited data” Research objective - How to improve credibility and consistency of bottom-up modelling in Asia?

The Great Indian Mismatch

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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

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ons

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Top-­‐down  

Gasoline  

The Great Indian ‘Diesel’ Mismatch

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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

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Poor data and insights cost - 3-10 billion USD diesel subsidy annually ‘low-hanging fruit’ : Prioritize data collection for Diesel vehicles  

Official  Data  

Revised  Official  

calibration  

Bottom-­‐up  

It’s more ‘efficiency’ in the Philippines?

Department of Energy claims ‘reduction’ due to “Impact of policies”

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Road  Transport  Fuel  Consumption  

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GDP/Capita  

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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

CO2  

It’s more ‘efficiency’ in the Philippines?

“33%” of fuel sold in the Philippines is smuggled costing 1 billion USD loss of revenues Top Down estimates are not realistic with ground conditions and aggressive policies are needed to reach 2030 goals.

DOE 2030 Target

2-3X Increase

Top Down

Bottom-up

Cost of “Doing Nothing” in Projects

avoided road space for a BRT is 2 m2 per rider and Metro is 3 m2per rider. Baseline - what would 'most likely' happen if this project is not executed

Impact of the project is compared with a 'no build' / 'without project'/ 'doing nothing' baseline.

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MRT  Costs  (million  USD)   Avoided  Infrastructure  Costs  (million  USD)  

Ahmedabad   Cebu   Guangzhou   Pimpri  Chennai   Bangalore   Ho  Chi  Minh   Manila    

Thanks  to  Lee  Schipper,  Lee  Schipper  Memorial  Scholarship  for  Sustainable  

Transport  and  Energy,Embarq  and  Clean  Air  Asia  

Car  that  absorbs  its  own  carbon  does  not  need  oil  or  cause  congestion?