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Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline American Exploration & Mining Association 120 th Annual Meeting Reno, Nevada Joel Schneyer – Managing Director December 4 th , 2014

Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline

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Page 1: Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline

Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline

American Exploration & Mining Association 120th Annual MeetingReno, Nevada

Joel Schneyer – Managing Director

December 4th, 2014

Page 2: Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline

Difficult Investment Landscape for Miners

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Source:  Novagold ‐ Presentation San Francisco Gold Conference November 2013

Mexico: New 8% tax on gold profits  

South America1.Peru: Construction halted at largest mine due to  gov’t review and social unrest.2.Ecuador: Political obstacles and windfall tax  discourage foreign investment in mining.3.Venezuela: Five mining companies seeking  compensation through World Bank’s arbitration court  following nationalizations.4.Bolivia: Nationalization of various natural resources  assets.5.Argentina: Miners required to repatriate revenues  from foreign sales, limitations imposed on foreign  exchange. Controls on imports of equipment/supplies  have also been tightened

Africa6.Ghana: Increase in tariffs on mines and introduced a  windfall tax, halting project expansions.7.Guinea: New law gives government a 35% stake;  threat of nationalization.8.Mali: Recent military coup creating political  uncertainty9.Kenya: Rising mineral royalties and drilling fees for  mining.10.Congo: Plans to revise mining code, raise taxes and  increase stake in mining projects11.Zimbabwe: Gov’t plans to seize control of foreign‐ owned mines.12.South Africa: Ongoing dialogue to nationalize mining  industry.

Russia, Asia & Australia13.Indonesia: Newly proposed legislation  limits foreign ownership of mines to 49%.14.Philippines: New royalties and taxes being  imposed on mining companies.15.Mongolia: Drafting investment law to  restrict foreign ownership.16.Australia: Government passed Mineral  Resources Rent Tax of 30%17.Kyrgyzstan: Parliamentary motion calling  for increased government stake in one of its  largest mines

Recently Highlighted Regions/Countries with Heightened Geopolitical Risk

Page 3: Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline

Disconnect Between Gold Miner Indexes and Broader Market

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Page 4: Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline

Source: Metals Focus

$548

$1,066 $1,045

$/oz

Mining Cost Inflation

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Page 5: Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline

Source: Metals Focus

$/oz

Industry Cash Cost Curve H1 2014

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Page 6: Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline

Source: Metals Focus

Industry All‐In Sustainable Cost H1 14

6

Page 7: Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline

Source: Metals Focus

$/oz

$535/oz

Margins Under Pressure

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Page 8: Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline

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The Institutional Money has lost confidence …

˗ that costs can be controlled

˗ that capital discipline will occur

˗ that restructurings can deliver on promises

˗ that returns on capital employed will improve

˗ that the industry won’t pile back into too many new projects or expensive deals when 

prices rebound

˗ that resource nationalism will not overwhelm the industry

˗ that commodity prices will not collapse

˗ that “stuckholders” have an exit

… and the markets reflect this loss of confidence

Institutional Money Is Not Buying Public Gold Company Lottery Tickets

Page 9: Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline

Why Buy An Illiquid Share When You Can Buy An ETF?

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Page 10: Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline

No control – generally passive

Upfront payment for metal – generally passive, much more  important financing source  today

Rise of PE as active investors  and generally absolute control

May have board representation,  early toehold in projects

The rise of state backed  investments (e.g. China and  Korea)

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Company

Project

Retail

Sovereign Wealth

Institu

tiona

l Mon

ey

Private Equity

Streaming & Royalty

Strategics

Merchant Traders

Mutual Funds

Major Shift In How Institutional Money Invests In Sector

Page 11: Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline

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Development Stage Gold Companies trade at an Enterprise Value of $16 per ounce of M, I, & I   (NI 43‐101) with average estimated project development costs of $91 per ounce

*EV = (share price x # shares) – current assets + total liabilities**9/29/2014 share  prices at close Au=$1219.50/oz, Ag=$17.58/oz

However The Development Stage Business Model Looks To Be Unsustainable

Page 12: Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline

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Once the Project enters the Development Investment Analysis Phase (PEA – Prefeasibility – Feasibility),  companies see a long period of share price erosion as studies, permitting and de‐risking drag on

Life Cycle of a Gold Mining Share – Dec 2013 119th Annual Meeting

De‐risking&

Page 13: Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline

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Once the Project enters the Development Investment Analysis Phase (PEA – Prefeasibility – Feasibility),  companies see a long period of share price erosion as studies, permitting and de‐risking drag on

Life Cycle of a Gold Mining Share – Dec 2014 120th Annual Meeting

Page 14: Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline

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Development Stage Gold Companies Trade on Average at             $16/oz Resource

Costs to Complete Drilling, Feasibility & Permitting             ~$10/oz Resource

Capital Development Costs                                        $91/oz Resource

Owners Costs Not in Feasibility  (25%)                           $23/oz Resource

Total                            $140/oz Resource

Actual Trading Market Multiples

• Small Gold Producers                                             $71/oz Resource

• Intermediate Gold Producers                                      $70/oz Resource

• Large Gold Producers                                             $129/oz Resource

• Silver Producers                                                 $128/oz Resource

So What Is the Problem?

Page 15: Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline

Focus On Sustainable Development And What You Can Control

Mining investors are increasingly focused on investment returns. Focus less on project IRR’s and more on Project rank on cost curve

Attractive Returns & Economic

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Staged Development

Low Political Risk

Available Workforce

To minimize capital risk, design around an initial high grade starter pit  with scaled expansion & investigate the lower cap intensity heap leach  option

Conventional process circuit.  Will take project thru “detailed engineering” before seeking project finance

Favorable jurisdiction with long established mining laws

Host jurisdiction has available trained and or trainable work force, only  need modest number of expatriate supervisors

Permitting & Social Issues

Have local stakeholders (partners) with financial stake that are on  record supporting project and EIS process

Completion & Overrun Risk

Page 16: Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline

The Headwaters Difference 

DEAL OF THE YEAR ‐ TMT

INVESTMENT BANK  OF THE YEAR

INTERNATIONAL DEAL OF THE YEAR  PROFESSIONAL (B2B) SERVICES

INTERNATIONAL DEAL OF THE YEAR   CONSUMER SERVICES

INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT  BANK OF THE YEAR

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Advocacy – unapologetic and conflict free

Award‐winning client advice 

Deep pool of transaction experience (over $265 billion) 

National footprint (7 offices)

Global reach (25 countries, 50 offices)

Focused industry coverage (specialists, not generalists)

Full product/service offering

#1 investment bank for private wealth in the US

Proprietary capital: we can invest; unique access to family office capital

Long history of success

Teamwork unrivalled in the industry

Capabilities  • Culture  • Results