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@RallyOn
#AgileAus #RallyforImpact
Slides: bit.ly/AgileCTFW
How to use Agile to move the Earth
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[email protected]
@RallyOn
#RallyforImpact
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Dave Douglas
David Snowden
Kembel Brothers
Mary Poppendieck
Bernard Amadei
Don Reinertsen
Steve Blank
Eric Ries
Shoulders of whom I am standing on
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Flikr by ListensVision hFp://youtu.be/V1vQCpqHQHw
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Two Failures of Agile – Roy Signham, Agile Aus 2012 1. Failed at Small end – innovating with less
2. Failed with bigger social problems
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Beyond Agile 1.0 – Roy Signham, Agile Aus 2012 1. Democratize of software for all – open source
2. Democratize development of software globally
3. You need to Contribute
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You are the densest Agile Community
What did you choose
to do?
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After my own Thoughtworks talks
I Choose
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Social MISSION
Create and Mobilize
Citizen Engineers
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Responsible Engineering
• Technically • Environmentally • Socially
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hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/krisN_decourcy/7625148158/
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Glacial - 168 ppm Pre- Industrial – 285 ppm Today – 384 ppm (100 ppm in 100 years)
400 600 800
Billion Tons Carbon
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NaNonal Snow and Ice Data Center – University of Colorado, Boulder hFp://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20070810_index.html
2005 2007
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source: Stroeve et al, 2007 GRL! and NSIDC 2007 Sea Ice website!
Trends of September sea ice extent - MODELS and OBSERVATIONS"
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This is not an Environmental
Problem!
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Only one force on the planet
large enough to stop this
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Move Beyond the Sprint
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Beyond the Release
Team Sprint/Flow 1-3 weeks
Program Release Quarterly
Portfolio Steering Quarterly
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Options Thinking
The expected payoff occurs because the le3 side has less area than the right side
Reinertsen, Don. Principles of Product Development Flow
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http://jchyip.blogspot.com/2010/05/lean-software-and-systems-conference.html (Probability of Failure)
Through Experiments
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Faster Cycles
Build
Measure Learn
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Effec%veness
Feasibility
Sustainability
Social Jus%ce
Increased Empathy
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hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/elestedeloeste/1265202136/
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hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/45/DiffusionOfInnovaNon.png
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hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/45/DiffusionOfInnovaNon.png
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hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/45/DiffusionOfInnovaNon.png
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hFp://hbr.org/2013/03/big-‐bang-‐disrupNon/
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Need to be a disciplined &
ethical explorer
Need ability to apply
appropriate technologies
Supplements to create Citizen Engineers
Engineers Social
Entrepreneurs
hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/stevendepolo/7315274972/sizes/m/in/photostream/
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Frame & Empathize
Build & Ship
Test & Measure
Learn & Share
Empathize – Explore - Execute
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hFp://www.rallydev.com/rallyforimpact/content/engineering-‐soluNons-‐fly
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Move the Earth
By Engineering
within Complexity
and Empathy
to Move the Earth
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Engineering Assumes
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What we are taught and how we created
this situation
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Civil Engineer – 1200 to 2000 Eng Physics – 3000 to 5000
In a four year bachelors of science degree:
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Gaussian distributions
hFp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-‐mat/0412004
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hFp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-‐mat/0412004 hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/danielmorrison/428130095
Gaussian distributions
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What surprises us?
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Power laws and Pareto distributions
hFp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-‐mat/0412004
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Other Pareto distributions
hFp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-‐mat/0412004
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Low probability events have higher
impact
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hFp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/howabouFhat/6988398/The-‐worlds-‐tallest-‐man-‐Sultan-‐Kosen-‐and-‐the-‐shortest-‐man-‐in-‐the-‐world-‐He-‐Pingping-‐meet.html
8’1’’ 2’5’’
3.3 x
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hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/4368494308
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Bill Gates
The Entire Room
650 x
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How do we make sense of this?
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Chaotic Simple Complicated Complex
Uncertainty
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Chaotic Simple Complicated Complex
Uncertainty
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Natural/Social
Systems
Mechanical Systems
Uncertainty
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Where does uncertainty live?
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Brown, Tim (2009-‐09-‐16). Change by Design (Kindle LocaNon 1984). Harper Collins, Inc.. Kindle EdiNon.
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Brown, Tim (2009-‐09-‐16). Change by Design (Kindle LocaNon 1984). Harper Collins, Inc.. Kindle EdiNon.
Level of uncertainty
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Type of innovation
Sustaining
Brown, Tim (2009-‐09-‐16). Change by Design (Kindle LocaNon 1984). Harper Collins, Inc.. Kindle EdiNon.
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When to explore vs execute?
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What to do
Brown, Tim (2009-‐09-‐16). Change by Design (Kindle LocaNon 1984). Harper Collins, Inc.. Kindle EdiNon.
Execute
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What to do
Brown, Tim (2009-‐09-‐16). Change by Design (Kindle LocaNon 1984). Harper Collins, Inc.. Kindle EdiNon.
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Engineering within Complexity
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Flikr by _DJ_
Neurons
Synapses
Transistors
Links
Flikr by Jurvtson
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We are changing the Context!
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Flikr by _DJ_
7 Billion
Energy & TransportaNon Technologies
InformaNon Technology
Flikr by Jurvtson
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Jim White, Director instaar.colorado.edu
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Think like a Scientist!
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Chaotic Simple Complicated Complex
Do Anything
Follow Recipe Analyze
Guess & Learn
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Do Anything!
Follow Recipe !Analyze!Guess &
Learn!
Chaotic! Simple!Complex! Complicated!
Bureaucrat!Engineer!Firefighter! Entrepreneur!
Uncertainty
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Prepare
Plan
Uncertainty
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Emerge
Analyze
Uncertainty
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Explore
Execute
Uncertainty
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Customer Development
(FROM LEAN STARTUP)
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Agile = Build it Right
Agile = Mindset of Change
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Alpha Beta Ship Oh Crap!
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Customer Development = Build
the Right Thing
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hFp://www.slideshare.net/sblank/the-‐startup-‐owners-‐manual-‐sxsw-‐11954724
Explore Execute
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Turn Guesses Frame
Test & Measure
Build &
Ship
Lea
rn
Into Knowledge
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First big Guess:
We understand the problem a customer
wants solved
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Customers don’t care about your solution. They care about their problems.
“
Dave McClure
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Engineering with Empathy
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hFp://youtu.be/_vBYjx6ID4g
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hFp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGiHU-‐agsGY
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2000 – 5000 GIVEN problems
driven to a SINGLE NUMERICAL
answer
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Problem Space Defined
Problem Space
Solution Space
Op%on Feasible Effec%ve
1
2
3
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hFps://vimeo.com/5485269
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Some rights reserved by Marek Mahut
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How about an example?
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hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/skillerphotos/7875656716
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Design Thinking = Frame the Right
Problem
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An Introduction to Design Thinking
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Maybe a better way?
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Disciplined way to turn all this uncertainty
into knowledge
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TAKE EACH MAJOR GUESS
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RUN AN EXPERIMENT
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Background: What do you want to learn and why?
Frame the Experiment: What is your Problem Statement?
Write the Problem Statement from the Define worksheet here. What pain or problem is being experienced?[Customer Segment] needs a way to [describe job to be done], (because|but|surprisingly) [describe insight].
Hypothesis to Test
[Specific repeatable action] will create [expected result].Is this hypothesis falsifiable?
Experiment Details
Describe the experiment you plan to run and how you are going to attempt to falsify your hypothesis.
Safety: How is the experiment safe to run and how will you recover?
Describe how the experiment is safe to run.Describe how you will recover from running the experiment upon completion or if you discover it isn’t safe to run.
Measures
What will you measure to invalidate your hypothesis?What will you measure to indicate the experiment is safe to run?What will you measure to indicate you should amplify the experiment?Measures can be Qualitative and Quantitative.
Experiment Backlog
Stack ranked list of actions needed to run the experiment.
Next Steps: Given what you learned, what’s next?
Experiment Results and Learnings
Describe what you learned from the experiment? Did you invalidate your hypothesis or does it live on?
Experiment Name:
Owner:
Mentor: Date:
I-2
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Next guess:
Our product solves the customer’s
problem
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Chaotic! Simple!Complicated!Complex!
Product lifecycle!
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What happened to this company?
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CUSTOMER DEVELOPMENT
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1
Began Using Lean Startup 1
2
$50M in New Product Revenue 2
3
1800 Concurrent Experiments 3
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Social Entrepreneuring
EXAMPLE
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Effec%veness
Feasibility
Sustainability
Desirability
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Flikr by ListensVision hFp://youtu.be/V1vQCpqHQHw
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We need more work here ���
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I want YOU to choose ���
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Share a Citizen Engineering Story
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http://www.sparkminute.com/2010/08/05/wireds-kevin-kelly-on-what-technology-wants/
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Thank You
@RallyOn
#rallyforimpact
Slides: bit.ly/AgileCTFW