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Vision Thailand 2020

Apirak Kosayodhin Asian Knowledge Institute 26 August 2011

1. Current Situation2. ASEAN 20153. Thailand Competitiveness4. Global Mega-trends5. Vision Thailand 2020

Agenda

Current Situation

• Global Situation

• Thailand Political Situation

• New Government

Market Size 2.67 Trillions $

ASEAN Countries in 2015

700 Millions consumers

What awaits Thailand?Comparison to selected countries

Countries with similar profile are up to ~10x wealthier than Thailand

Countries with similar profile are up to ~10x wealthier than Thailand Potential to triple per-capita income?Potential to triple per-capita income?

Sector mix may need to be shapedSector mix may need to be shapedDomestic sectors may grow in

importanceDomestic sectors may grow in

importance

2,592 2,064687

0

2,000

4,000

France Italy South Korea

268

Thailand

194194

Malaysia

Nominal GDP

Nominal GDP (USD bn)

0

100

200France

Italy

South Korea

Thailand

Malaysia

% of GDP

78 72 58 43 46

4046 44

26202

France

2

Italy

3

South Korea

11

Thailand

10

Malaysia

Agriculture

Industry

Service

0

100

50

Percentage of GDP

35,100 31,360 26,4008,340 14,110

0

20,000

40,000

France Italy South Korea Thailand Malaysia

$ at PPP

Note: Countries with similar population size and geographic sizeSource: EIU 2008 data

Thailand's major strengths are low cost of living and healthy environment for employment

1. Difference between overall IMD ranking of Thailand (27) and sub factor scores. Use 10 to approximate 1 standard deviation difference. Source: IMD Competitiveness Report 2008

2. Healthy environment for employment contains fair compensation level, high employment rate and high labor force number and business friendly regulations

Low

High

High

Gap in ranking between overall IMD index of Thailand with subfactor score

Factor effect on ability of Thailand to develop sustainable competitive advantage and prosperity

(+101)

Healthy environment

for employment2

(24)

Key strengths Thailand can leverage

Mgmt practice

(8)

Low High

IMD competitive ranking analysis of major strengthsIMD competitive ranking analysis of major strengths

Low inflation and cost of

living(23)

Economic performance

Government efficiency

Business efficiency

Infrastructure

Attitudes and values

(7)

Appropriate consumption

tax rates(22)

Competitiveness - Strengths

Infrastructure and business efficiency identified as major weaknesses of Thailand

1. Difference between overall IMD ranking of Thailand (27) and sub factor scores. Use 10 to approximate 1 standard deviation difference. Source: IMD Competitiveness Report 20082. Weakness in low number of care providers

Low

High

High

Gap in ranking between overall IMD index of Thailand with subfactor score

Factor effect on ability of Thailand to develop sustainable competitive advantage and prosperity

(-101)

Insufficient health

quality2 (-20) Insufficient education

quality(-16)

Low productivity & efficiency

(-21)

Highest priority gap

to address

Finance: bank

efficiency(-4)

Societal framework

(-9)

Basic infrastructu

re(-2)

Tech – low penetration of internet

users(-16)

Low High

Low GDP per capita

(-21)

Public finance

(-2)Business legislation

(-2)

Low direct investment

stocks abroad(-20)

Economic performance

Government efficiency

Business efficiency

Infrastructure

Insufficient scientific

infrastructure (-10)

IMD competitive ranking analysis of major weaknessesIMD competitive ranking analysis of major weaknesses

Competitiveness - Weaknesses

Several mega-trends with high relevance on Thailand's future development

PeoplePeople

Aging society

Urbanization

Health &safety concerns

International mobility

Connectivity

EnvironmentEnvironment

Climate changes

Scarcity and deteriorating quality of resources

BusinessBusiness

Shifting economic leadership to Asia

Stronger focus on governance

1

2

3

4

6

7

8

9

5

SWOT analysis for Thailand shows several opportunities for action

Strengths

• Central physical location • High-quality service• Sufficiency and diversity of

agricultural resource• Low inflation & cost of living• Healthy environment for

employment

Opportunities

• Aging society (developed countries)

• International mobility• Connectivity• Shifting economic leadership

to Asia• Health and safety concerns

Weaknesses

• Insufficient scientific infrastructure

• Low productivity and efficiency

• Insufficient education quality• Insufficient health quality

Threats

• Aging society (Thailand)• Climate change• Scarcity and deteriorating

quality of resources (water, energy, food, soil)

• Urbanization• Strong focus on governance

Source: NESDB 2570 Vision Paper, IMD competitiveness, BCG Analysis

Competitiveness analysis Mega-trend analysis

Strategic focus"What Thailand should be known for"

Strategic pillars"How Thailand should operate"

Strategic foundation"What Thailand needs to have"

Potential 2020 Vision for ThailandTransformation from commodity supplier to branded, high value-added economy

Strategic Focus

" What Thailand should be known

for"

Strategic pillars

"How Thailand should operate"

Foundation

"What Thailand needs to have"

High quality & wide access to social services

Sufficiency & sustainable resource management

High quality physical & technological infrastructure

Prudent fiscal & monetary policy

Open economy with high

social mobility

Culture of tech/

entrepreneur-ship&

excellence

Coordinated cluster

economy system

Knowledge & creativity

based communities

World-class work ethics

& governance

High value-added economy

World's food supplier Leader in creative products

Magnet for cultural & eco-tourismhigh-value added services

Regional logistics hub

12

3

4

Transformation towards sustainable, higher value economyNational agenda is key to drive transformation

Thailand TodayThailand Today

Commodity products

OEM focus

Basic infrastructure

Basic use of rich cultural heritage in commercialization of products and services

Thailand 2020Thailand 2020

Higher value-added products

Branded products

Higher-quality physical and technological infrastructure

Cultural tourism and heritage-based product commercialization

• Add value

• Build brand

• Invest in infrastructure

• Leverage Thai heritage

“We must become the change we wish to see in the world.”

Mahatma Gandhi

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