Social Intelligence and Super Bowl 2011

2011 Alterian Buzz Bowl Findings

Looking Beyond the 30 Second Spot

Published by Scott Briggs, Strategic Solutions, Alterian

Agenda

• Motivation

• Methodology and Metrics

• Results (12/1/10 – 3/6/11)

• Insights and Analysis

Making Honey

“The management and analysis of customer

data from social sources, used to activate

and recalibrate marketing programs.” – Zach Hofer-Shall Defining Social Intelligence)

Social Intelligence


Devise a model that helps

quantify social media in a

way that is useful for

marketing decision making

Super Reach

The Super Bowl has become an iconic symbol of the power of the 30 second

spot. The Super Bowl still attracts advertisers and viewers alike. In the

biggest media event of the year for brands and networks the world gathers

not just to see the game, but also the best the creative agencies have to offer.

• 111M (US) Viewers – Highest Rated Super Bowl Ever

• ~$250M spent on the media purchase alone

• 70+ in-game spots spread across 27 pods

• Average paid per spot $3M

• 20 Brands purchased more than 30 seconds of commercial time


The Questions for All Brands:

• Was the Investment Worthwhile?

• Can we Quantify the Results?

• How do we Compare to other Advertisers?

• What was the Longevity of the Spot?

The Question for us to Explore:

• Can we use Social Media to Help Answer

Those Questions?

Agenda

• Motivation


• Results (12/1/10 – 3/6/11)


Methodology - Three Phases of Social Intelligence

1. Social conversations take place in myriad

channels. It‟s not just about grabbing Twitter

feeds, but the triangulation of all possible

sources from Facebook, to surveys and reviews,

to industry association communities, and blogs.

Listening - Collecting the right data

Conversations about the

Super Bowl

Taxonomy of Advertising

Terms

• Collected conversations

related to the Super Bowl

and advertising

• Searched for results

related to the topic, not

the Brands

• Collected 433,531

conversations (~40%

increase from 2010)

• Human analysis to

remove „bad‟ results and

domains

433,531 Total Conversations

Listening - Collecting the right data

Conversations about the

Super Bowl

35 Brands

Taxonomy of

Advertising Terms

• Two Step Process

• Only after collecting “on-

topic” conversations do

we attribute to the brand

• Consistent approach for

all brands

• Avoids the problem of

some brands having

more „organic‟ mentions

• Use Category Rules to

automate the process

• Collected 241,318 Brand

Conversations (~55%

increase from 2010)

241,318 Brand Conversations

Listening - Three Time Periods

46% of

Conversations

were on

Gameday

Time Period Dates Days Results

Pregame Dec. 1 –

Feb. 5

67 141,142

Gameday Feb. 6 &

Feb. 7

2 200,636

Postgame Feb. 8 –

Mar. 6

27 91,735

Listening – Sentiment Analysis Approach

A key component of Social Media Monitoring is Sentiment Analysis.

Sentiment Analysis has many well-documented challenges. When performing

a comparative analysis like Buzz Bowl those challenges are magnified. For

that reason, we employed a hybrid approach of automated and manual

analysis for improved accuracy.

1. Using SM2‟s automated analysis we rated every result for

sentiment

2. We selected a random set of posts for each brand to evaluate the

sentiment manually

3. We created a list of words that either needed to be removed or

added to the standard sentiment dictionary

4. We made 29 adjustments to the positive and negative dictionaries

5. Executed the sentiment analysis again with the edited dictionaries

Methodology - Three Phases of Social Intelligence

1.

2. Collecting data is essential, but it‟s only the first

step in building value. A real point of

differentiation is the ability to convert that into

actionable insights. Semantical analysis is part

of this, but so is inclusion of multi-channel data.

Social conversations take place in myriad





Cost Analysis Indices

Duration / Intensity

Sentiment

Volume

Learning Environment

Syndicated Data

Metric 1 - Reach

Reach is an important concept for social

media analysis because it helps bridge

social measures into the parlance of

traditional marketing measurement.

To calculate this, we analyze each result

whereby for a given author, in a given

channel we attribute how many eye balls

potentially saw that mention. We do this

using the SM2 popularity measure which

can translated into potential views. This

accounts for the likes of a Charlie Sheen

having far greater reach than the typical

Joe.

For each mention:

Mention Author x Factor

(tied to specific channel)

Metric 2 - Social Engagement Index (SEI)

Estimates the social reach of a brand by

taking the count of mentions and factoring

based upon the popularity of the author

(as described under reach).

Indexing then enables easy comparison

between the brands. This is

accomplished by dividing a brands

potential reach by the overall average and

finally by multiplying by 100. Following,

any score of less than 100 indicates a

brand that scored below the average.

∑ Brand Reach

Average Advertisers Reach x 100

Metric 3 - Social Sentiment Engagement Index (SSEI)

Similar calculation to the SEI, but adds an

additional element of sentiment whereby

reach score is adjusted positively for a

good comment, but negatively for a poor

one.

Again the brands have been indexed

against 100, but here a brand can actually

achieve a negative score. Anything less

than 100 indicates a below average

sentiment, while a score less than 0

indicates a net negative sentiment.

∑ Mention x Reach x (+/- 1)

Average Advertisers x 100

Metric 4 - Cost Per Social Impression (CPSI)

A commodity that nearly all marketers deal

in is impressions. Tracing back to roots in

RFM we‟ve been schooled on building

awareness by efficiently generating

impressions. It‟s not the overall spend

that‟s important, but the cost per

impression.

With the CPSM model what we‟ve done is

take each brand‟s media spend and

divided by their total reach. Like other

CPx models, understanding relative

performance will take time to develop

historical benchmarks. Looking at the

Super Bowl alone brands that generated

better than $.36 per impression beat the

average.

Brand Social Reach

Media Spend

Metric 5 - Longevity Index

Decay is another important factor for

brand advertising. Stated more simply,

this refers to the declining effect a given

ad has moving forward in time after its

execution. This additional reach can also

be termed the long tail.

For this measure, we compare the slope

of decline in the tails for each brand

compared to the average slope for all

brands. Indexed at 1, the lower the score

indicates the more rapid the drop off, while

the higher number points to a fatter tail,

and more extended engagement.

∑ Brand Mentions

Average Mentions Game

Game + 30

Game

Game + 30

Three Phases of Social Intelligence

1.

2. Collecting data is essential, but it‟s only the first

step in building value. A real point of

differentiation is the ability to convert that into

actionable insights. Semantical analysis is part

of this, but so is inclusion of multi-channel data.

Social conversations take place in myriad





3. The last phase is to turn those standard metrics

into insights that marketers can use. The best

insights are not useful if it is not understandable

in the right hands. A key ingredient to making

social intelligence impactful on marketers is the

isolation and elevation of key points. UNDERSTAND

Agenda

• Motivation


• Results (12/1/10 – 3/6/11)


Aggregate Reach

• TV Viewership for the

2011 Super Bowl was

estimated at 111 Million

Viewers in the US

• Conversations about

Chrysler had the furthest

Social Reach of 116

Million

• The Average advertiser

had a potential Reach of

20.5 Million

Social Reach shows us that Social Media is large and important channel.

Marketers that can effectively leverage Social Media can significantly expand

the audience.

Most Engaged - SEI

Most Loved – SSEI

Extending the Connection – Longevity Index

• The long tail concept works well with

Social Media Measurement

• Longevity Index is dominated by the top

3 Brands – all have greater than 100x

average

• 23 Brands had tails below the average

Varying Returns - CPSI

Best: Groupon $0.03 Average: $0.36 per Worst: CarMax $1.94

$-

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

$1.80

$2.00

$0.07

$0.59

$0.12 $0.06

$0.22

$1.43

$0.32 $0.35

$1.94

$1.25

$0.10

$0.36

$0.14

$0.28

$0.12

$0.03

$0.17

$0.47

$0.31

$0.07 $0.11 $0.13

$-

$0.33

$0.14

$-

$0.80

$0.46

$0.24

$0.73

$0.53

$0.16

$0.07 $0.06

Alterian's Cost Per Social Impression (CPSI)

Agenda

• Motivation


• Results (12/1/10 – 3/6/11)


The Social Bowl?

"I continued to hear that was the wrong

way to go. But if you want to be part of the

national discussion, you not only have to

be on the Super Bowl, but you have to fully

leverage social media.“ -- VW marketing

chief Tim Ellis (http://www.usatoday.com/money/advertising/admeter/2011-02-08-admeter08_ST_N.htm)

Was it The Social Bowl?

By looking at the data in the 3 distinct time periods we can measure the

impact of the top Brands before, during and after The Super Bowl.

• The Potential Reach data indicate a significant audience in Social

Media

• Many brands leveraged Social Media before and during the game

• VW posted ad on YouTube

• Mercedes “Twitter Fueled Race”

• Audi created a Twitter Hashtag

• Doritos/Pepsi “Crash the Super Bowl” promotion

• Anheuser Busch Facebook Promotion

Did Social Media Extend the Impact of the Advertising?

Social Engagement Index – Top 5 Brands

Pregame Gameday Postgame

Pregame SSEI

Pregame SSEI shows a

similar pattern – the

top 5 all have a

significant investment

in Social Media.

Indicates a net positive

sentiment for those

brands that leveraged

social media pregame.

Gameday SSEI

VW and Chrysler were

most liked on Gameday.

Both had ads that

compelled viewers. VW

leveraged social media,

Chrysler did not.

Groupon saw the

downside of a large reach,

the reaction to their ad

was mostly negative.

Only 2 brands had more

negative than positive

comments on Gameday

Postgame SSEI

The conversation

turned negative after

the game. 10 brands

had more negative

than positive

conversations.

2 Brands dominated

the positive

conversations: VW and

Chrysler

Which Brands Extended the Conversation?

VW leveraged Social Media and had

compelling creative. VW had greater than

average reach and sentiment before, during

and after the Super Bowl.

Chrsyler – Imported from Detroit

Chrysler did not leverage Social Media as

much as some other brands. However a

compelling ad led to greater than average

reach and sentiment during and after the

Super Bowl.

Groupon – Ad turns negative

Groupon did not leverage Social Media

before the game. The Groupon ad

garnered mostly negative comments.

Could Groupon have mitigated this with a

pregame Social strategy?

Best Buy – What‟s a Beiber

Best Buy – The Justin Beiber

announcement caused a spike in

conversations. But over time the impact

lessened. How could they have extended

the conversation.

Motorola – Extending the Conversation

SEI Rank SSEI Rank

Pregame 12 35

Gameday 6 6

Postgame 13 3

Motorola did not leverage Social Media as

much as other brands. However, the

conversation for Motorola turned positive

during and after the game.

Summary

• The social channel provides the opportunity for significant mirroring of

media campaigns

• A powerful ad on its own can generate significant buzz

• The combination of both compelling creative and leveraging social media

can expand the reach of mass media

• Successful campaigns can expand awareness and can nearly double

the reach of the primary channel

• Social media can slow decay and extend the lifespan of a campaign and

dramatically impact overall performance

• Sentiment plays an important role – pointing to the power of the

emotional brand connection, even in the social space

Questions About the Data?

Scott Briggs

Director, Strategic Solutions, Alterian

[email protected]

+1 312 884 5236

www.twitter.com/scott_briggs

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.twitter.com/scott_briggs

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Social Intelligence and Super Bowl 2011