Responding to your environment

Predictive AnalyticsUREASON | Bigdata Expo September 2016

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UREASON

Active in: Process Industry, Telecom, Smart Grid, Smart Cities since 2001Vast Experience: Big Data, IoT, AI, Fault Management, Predictive Analytics, Predictive MaintenanceA.I. Technology HouseRecognized by Gartner as comprehensive supplier for Event Stream Processing/Complex Event Processing technologyProven track record with customers in wide variety of industry – general theme: reason over large volumes of data to reduce business uncertaintyKnown as Innovator – from Concept to Feasibility and Roll-outMain offices in the Netherlands (Delft) and the UK (Maidenhead), sales offices in France and Germany

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Operational Intelligence

Active in Operational Intelligence, providing real-time insights, reducing risks and/or costIndustry Application

areaResults

Power generation

Outage prevention

Cost reduction

Chemical Gas leak detection

24/7 monitoring, increased safety

Drinking water

Pollution assessment

Pollution spread and risk

Oil & Gas ESP failure prediction

Early insights

Power generation

Theft detection

Indication

Insurance Loyalty Early tipping risk identification

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We Entered Into the World of Real-Time Predictive Analytics

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Revolution(s)

http://pages.experts-exchange.com/processing-power-compared/

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Revolution(s)

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20201.00E-06

1.00E-05

1.00E-04

1.00E-03

1.00E-02

1.00E-01

1.00E+00

1.00E+01

1.00E+02

1.00E+03

1.00E+04Historical Cost of Computer Memory and Storage

Flip-Flops

Core

ICs on boards

SIMMs

DIMMs

Big Drives

Floppy Drives

Small Drives

Flash Memory

SSD

Year

Mem

ory

Pric

e ($

/MB)

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20201.00E-06

1.00E-05

1.00E-04

1.00E-03

1.00E-02

1.00E-01

1.00E+00

1.00E+01

1.00E+02

1.00E+03

1.00E+04

1.00E+05

Disk Drive Cost with TIme

Floppy Disk DrivesMainframe DrivesSmall Disk DrivesFlash Memory

Year

Pric

e ($

/MB)

http://www.jcmit.com/memoryprice.htm

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Revolution(s)

World Economic Forum, January 2015, Industrial Internet of Things: Unleashing the Potential of Connected Products and Services

“If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it.”

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‘New’ Business Models Appearing

Source TechWorld

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Technology Storms

MIT Technology Review2016 2015 2014Immune Engineering Magic Leap Agricultural DronesPrecise Gene Editing in Plants Nano-Architecture Ultraprivate SmartphonesConversational Interfaces Car-to-Car Communication Brain MappingReusable Rockets Project Loon Neuromorphic ChipsRobots that Teach Each Other Liquid Biopsy Genome EditingDNA App Store Megascale Desalination Microscale 3-D PrintingSolarCity’s Gigafactory Apply Pay Mobile CollaborationSlack Brain Organoids Oculus RiftTesla Autopilot Supercharged Photosynthesis Agile RobotsPower from the Air Internet of DNA Smart Wind & Solar Power

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Recipe for Succes?

New Business Models + New Technologies InnovationFailure is the foundation for innovation:• Regulatory-compliance:

inspection data, maintenance data and real-time data allows you to determine in real-time if your assets/machines are compliant to regulations. The complexity of determining this is diverse – legal, operational knowledge, history, location all play a role. A system was developed that was able to track all of this data and provide advisories to operational personnel. This provided better insights and reduced risk.

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Recipe for Succes?

• Intelligent Traffic Notification: debottlenecking traffic by evenly distributing the traffic across the road network. Reducing carbon footprint and enabling delivery route optimization for delivery and transportation companies.

• Detecting gas and bio attacks early: using proven sensor technology and mobile phones to create a mess network of human sensors

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Predictve Analytics -Indicators for Failure

Data Quality!!?

Pure Algorithmic Approach?? - Searching for the needle in the (moving) haystack of data

Source: Dilbert.com

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Predictve Analytics -Indicators for Failure

Correlation or Causation?

Predict without Classification?

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Zoom In: OSS Overload in the NOC

Vast reduction of the quantity of alarms, improving situational awareness, automated actions

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Overview

16

TEMIP

EMS – Streaming Alarm Data

Cross-Silo IntegrationReal-time Weather Data

Maintenance DataCustomer/SLA Requirements

Business/Performance Requirements

Alarm Expert

Vend

or P

arse

r

User

Act

ion/

Rule

s

Rule

s En

gine

Auto

mat

ed

Actio

ns

Alarm Expert Web Portal

Alarm Rules and ActionsNetwork

Equipment

NetworkEquipment

NetworkEquipment

Synchronization Logic Enriched Alarms

Grouped Alarms

Reduced Alarms

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Deployment RealizedTe

st S

yste

mLi

ve

Syst

em

NokiaOperational Context

HuaweiOperational Context

HP TeMIP Instance

EricssonOperational Context

Alarm ExpertEricsson

Alarm ExpertNokia

Alarm ExpertHuawei

2G/3G/LTE 2G/3G/LTE2G/3G/LTE 2G/3G/LTE 2G/3G/LTE 2G/3G/LTE 2G/3G/LTE

ET SW NOFI LISW FI

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Zoom-In: Predictive Asset Failure Detection

(Sequential PAttern Discovery using Equivalence)

Real-time Predictive

Failure Actions/Advice

Alarm Expert

Asset Event/Alarm

s

Breakdowns/ Delays

Real-time Asset

Event/Alarms

Real-time Predictive

MaintenancePatter

n Rules

Actions

Candidate Patterns

Event Pattern Detection Agent

Using pattern mining and rule induction techniques, turn alarm data into rules that can reduce the amount of information presented to operators and predict conditions

MSAP, Iteration 2Raw Results

MSAP, Iteration 3Raw Results

MSAP, Iteration 1Raw Results

cSPADEJoinedMSAP

Iterations

MSAPIteration 1

MSAPIteration 3

MSAPIteration 2

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Steps Towards a Successful Predictive Analytics ProgramRules of engagement:1. Clear business requirements and understanding2. Take a systematic approach to data management3. Select the right toolbox(es) for the job at hand4. Involve the users early on5. Data pruning and aggregation is key but useless without understanding

state6. Model training & validation is iterative as such difficult to fit traditional

project planning – take a RAD approach

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What Next?

Identify where your organisation can benefit from Predictive AnalyticsKeep in mind:

- More data ≠ More Insight- Insight does not mean Value

UREASON can support you in- Big Data & Advanced Analytics Training & Awareness- Proof of Concept Advanced Analytics (Predictive & Prescriptive)- Technology Selection- Your Advanced Analytics projects – Technology & Knowledge

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Responding to your environment

Contact

UREASON International BVDrie Akersstraat 112611 JR, DelftThe Netherlands

Telephone:General: +31 85 273 49 20Fax: +31 85 273 49 29Email:General: info@ureason.comSupport: support@ureason.com