# 1 CSU’s EPA-FUNDED PROGRAM ON SPACE-TIME AQUATIC RESOURCE MODELING and ANALYSIS PROGRAM (STARMAP) N. SCOTT URQUHART SENIOR RESEARCH SCIENTIST DEPARTMENT

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CSU’s EPA-FUNDEDCSU’s EPA-FUNDEDPROGRAM ONPROGRAM ON

SPACE-TIME AQUATIC RESOURCESPACE-TIME AQUATIC RESOURCEMODELING and ANALYSIS PROGRAMMODELING and ANALYSIS PROGRAM

(STARMAP) (STARMAP)

CSU’s EPA-FUNDEDCSU’s EPA-FUNDEDPROGRAM ONPROGRAM ON

SPACE-TIME AQUATIC RESOURCESPACE-TIME AQUATIC RESOURCEMODELING and ANALYSIS PROGRAMMODELING and ANALYSIS PROGRAM

(STARMAP) (STARMAP)

N. SCOTT URQUHART

SENIOR RESEARCH SCIENTIST

DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY

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TODAYTODAYTODAYTODAY

EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS (RFA)

CSU’s RESPONSE = STARMAP

EXPANSION ON PROJECT #4

= LEARNING MATERIALS

EXAMPLES OF TECHNIQUES

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EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONSEPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS(RFA)(RFA)

EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONSEPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS(RFA)(RFA)

CONTENT REQUIREMENTS

RESEARCH IN STATISTICS

DIRECTED TOWARD USING, IN PART, DATA GATHERED BY

PROBABILITY SURVEYS OF THE “EMAP-

SORT.”

TRAINING OF “FUTURE GENERATIONS” OF

ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICIANS

OUTREACH TO THE STATES and TRIBES

ADMINISTRATIVE REQUIREMENTS

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EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONSEPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS(RFA) (RFA) - continuedcontinued

EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONSEPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS(RFA) (RFA) - continuedcontinued

MAJOR ADMINISTRATIVE REQUIREMENT

“… EACH OF THE TWO PROGRAMS

ESTABLISHED WILL INVOLVE

COLLABORATIVE

RESEARCH AT MULTIPLE, GEOGRAPHICALLY

DIVERSE SITES.”

CLOSE COOPERATION BETWEEN TWO

PROGRAMS

CSU and OSU SUBMITTED A PAIR OF

COORDINATED PROPOSALS

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EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONSEPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS(RFA) (RFA) - continued III- continued III

EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONSEPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS(RFA) (RFA) - continued III- continued III

THE TWO PROGRAMS:

DESIGN-BASED/MODEL ASSISTED SURVEY

METHODOLOGY - @ OSU

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL MODELING,

INCORPORATING HIERARCHICAL SURVEY

DESIGN, DATA ANALYSIS, MODELING - @ CSU

CHECK ON THE RFA @

http://es.epa.gov/ncerqa/rfa/aquastat01.html

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RESPONSE to RFA from CSURESPONSE to RFA from CSURESPONSE to RFA from CSURESPONSE to RFA from CSU

INSTITUTIONS:

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY

STATISTICS

NATURAL RESOURCES ECOLOGY LAB

FOREST SCIENCE

BIORESOURCE AND AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING

OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY (PROGRAM 1, too)

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATER

RESEARCH PROJECT

WATER QUALITY TECHNOLOGY, INC

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WHO IS INVOLVED?WHO IS INVOLVED?WHO IS INVOLVED?WHO IS INVOLVED?

Jay Breidt

Richard Davis

Jennifer Hoeting

Hari Iyer

Scott Urquhart

Dave Theobald - Natural Resources Ecology Lab

Robin Reich - Forest Science

Jim Loftis - Bioresources Engineering

Collaborators at OSU, SCCWRP, WQTI

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CSU PROPOSAL - APPROACHCSU PROPOSAL - APPROACHCSU PROPOSAL - APPROACHCSU PROPOSAL - APPROACH

TAKE EXISTING SETS OF

PROBABILITY &

NON-PROBABILITY DATA

START WORKING WITH THE DATA WITH A

PERSPECTIVE OF DRAWING INFERENCES

IDENTIFY ISSUES WE DON’T KNOW HOW TO HANDLE

HAVE POST-DOCS AND PRE-DOCTORAL STUDENTS

CONDUCT RESEARCH ON THESE TOPICS

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WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUTWHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT“AQUATIC RESOURCES”?“AQUATIC RESOURCES”?

WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUTWHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT“AQUATIC RESOURCES”?“AQUATIC RESOURCES”?

THEY ARE THINGS LIKE

STREAMS

RIVERS

WETLANDS

LAKES & PONDS

ESTUARIES

PRAIRIE POTHOLES

NEAR COASTAL OCEANIC WATERS

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WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT’WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT’“AQUATIC RESOURCES”?“AQUATIC RESOURCES”?

CONTINUEDCONTINUED


CONTINUEDCONTINUED

FOR MOST AQUATIC RESOURCES,

THERE ARE MANY “SMALL” ONES

PROGRESSIVELY FEWER AS THEY GET BIGGER

INTEREST, BIOLOGICAL & SOCIETAL, TENDS TO

STAY CONSTANT OR EVEN INCREASE WITH SIZE

SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLING WOULD SELECT

MOSTLY “SMALL” ONES, FEW “BIG” ONES.

IMPLICATION:

UNEQUAL PROBABILITY SAMPLING

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CONTINUED IICONTINUED II


CONTINUED IICONTINUED II

SPATIAL STATISTICS TENDS TO FOCUS ON

TWO-DIMENSIONAL SPACE

STREAMS AND RIVERS ESSENTIALLY AMOUNT

TO ONE-DIMENSIONAL OBJECTS IN TWO-

SPACE

BUT MUCH LANDSCAPE INFORMATION IS

COMPLETE COVERAGE IN TWO-SPACE

CHALLENGE:

MERGE THESE PERSPECTIVES

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FUTURE NEEDS - STATES & TRIBESFUTURE NEEDS - STATES & TRIBESFUTURE NEEDS - STATES & TRIBESFUTURE NEEDS - STATES & TRIBES

STATES AND TRIBES MUST REPORT ON THE

CONDITION OF ALL “WATERS” UNDER

THEIR JURISTICTION

A REQUIREMENT OF SECTION 305b OF THE

CLEAN WATER ACT

RESULTS IN BIANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS

STARTING IN 2002 THE RECOMMENDED

STANDARDS WILL CHANGE TO BEING

BASED ON PROBABILITY SAMPLING

OUTREACH PROJECT OPPORTUNITY!

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CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCSU PROPOSAL - CONTENT

1. COMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATA

2. LOCAL INFERENCE

3. DEVELOPING AQUATIC INDICATORS

4. OUTREACH

5. ADMINISTRATION/COORDINATION

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CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCONTINUEDCONTINUED


1. COMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATA

FROM SURVEYS TO REMOTELY SENSED

POSSIBLY INCLUDING INFORMATION FROM

“HAND-PICKED”SITES

JENNIFER HOETING

DAVIS, BREIDT, REICH,

STEVENS (OSU), WEISBERG (SCCWRP),

LEECASTER (INL)

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2. LOCAL INFERENCE

SMALL AREA EST’M + DECONVOLUTION

JAY BREIDT

DAVIS, HOETING, GITELMAN (OSU)

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CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCONTINUED IICONTINUED II

CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCONTINUED IICONTINUED II

3. AQUATIC INDICATORS

DEVELOPING DATA TO USE IN SPATIAL

ANALYSES

LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY

REGIONAL TAXONOMIC RICHNESS

DAVE THEOBALD, NATURAL RESOURCES

ECOLOGY LAB

URQUHART, RITTER (SCCWRP)

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CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCONTINUED IIICONTINUED III


OUTREACH

“PROPOSALS SHOULD SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS

THE EXTENSION OF EXPERTISE ON DESIGN

AND

ANALYSIS TO STATES AND TRIBES”

HARI IYER & NSU PREPARED THIS PART OF THE

CSU RESPONSE

DAVIS, REICH,

JIM LOFTIS (BIORESOURCES ENGINEERING),

STEPHEN JOHNSON (WATER QUALITY TECHNOLOGY)

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5. ADMINISTRATION

INTEGRATION AND COORDINATION

URQUHART & DAVIS

STEVENS (OSU)

AQUATIC SUPPORT: HERLIHY & HUGHES (OSU)

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CSU PROPOSAL - FUNDED ACTIVITIESCSU PROPOSAL - FUNDED ACTIVITIESAPPROXIMATE ANNUAL LEVELSAPPROXIMATE ANNUAL LEVELS

CSU PROPOSAL - FUNDED ACTIVITIESCSU PROPOSAL - FUNDED ACTIVITIESAPPROXIMATE ANNUAL LEVELSAPPROXIMATE ANNUAL LEVELS

POST DOCTORAL FELLOWS 2.5

DOCTORAL STUDENTS 2

FACULTY TIME ~ 1 FTE (12M)

OTHER

SUBCONTRACT TO OSU~ $120K

COMPUTING EQUIPMENT - ONE TIME =$20K

SUPPORT/TRAVEL AMPLE

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OSU COMPANION PROPOSALOSU COMPANION PROPOSALOSU COMPANION PROPOSALOSU COMPANION PROPOSAL

SIMILARILY STRUCTURED

MAJOR DIFFERENCE = FOCUS

DESIGN-BASED/MODEL ASSISTED

OSU SUBCONTRACT TO CSU THE SAME

SCALE AS CSU SUBCONTRACT TO OSU

BOTH PROGRAMS HAVE OTHER

SUBCONTRACTORS THE FIRST YEAR

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DISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVEDISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVEDISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVEDISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVE

DEFINE THE POPULATION OF INTEREST

CONDUCT A PROBABILITY SURVEY OF IT CAREFULLY DEFINE THE SAMPLING FRAME

VARIABLE PROBABILITY SELECTION OF SITES, BUT

WITH SPATIAL BALANCE

CAREFULLY DEFINE RESPONSES TO BE EVALUATED

TRAIN FIELD CREWS WELL

MANAGE DATA WITH CARE AND AN “AUDIT TRAIL”

LEARN FROM PAST MISTAKES, THROUGHOUT

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DISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVEDISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVECONTINUEDCONTINUED

DISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVEDISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVECONTINUEDCONTINUED

IF DISCIPLINES LACK TOOLS, SUPPORT

DEVELOPMENT OF THEM

STATISTICS INCLUDED

EXAMPLE: EXTEND CONCEPTS OF SAMPLING FROM

FINITE POPULATION TO SPATIALLY

CONTINUOUS

POPULATIONS

NATIONAL RESEARCH CENTER FOR STATISTICS AND THE

ENVIRONMENT (~ $1M/YEAR) UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON PAST 5 YEARS NOW TO BE AT UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO

TWO PROGRAMS UNDER DISCUSSION HERE

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FUTURE NEEDS - STATES & TRIBESFUTURE NEEDS - STATES & TRIBESCONTINUEDCONTINUED

FUTURE NEEDS - STATES & TRIBESFUTURE NEEDS - STATES & TRIBESCONTINUEDCONTINUED

PROJECT # 4 WILL HELP

IDENTIFY NEEDED SKILLS IN THE STATES &

TRIBES

DEVELOP THE NEEDED SKILLS

IF POSSIBLE, WE HOPE TO TRANSMIT THE

LEARNING MATERIALS IN WEB-COMPATIBLE

DOCUMENTS

RECORDED ON A CD ROM USABLE AT ANY

REMOTE SITE

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MORE ON LEARNING TOOLSMORE ON LEARNING TOOLSMORE ON LEARNING TOOLSMORE ON LEARNING TOOLS

AN EXPANSION ON PROJECT 4:

Documents

# 1 CSU’s EPA-FUNDED PROGRAM ON SPACE-TIME AQUATIC RESOURCE MODELING and ANALYSIS PROGRAM (STARMAP) N. SCOTT URQUHART SENIOR RESEARCH SCIENTIST DEPARTMENT