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한국경제의 마르크스 비율 분석 : 1970-2003 293 한국경제의 마르크스 비율 분석 : 1970-2003* 1) Trend of Marxian Ratios in Korea: 1970-2003 정 성 진 Jeong, Seong Jin 경상대학교 경제학과 이 논문은 잉여가치율과 이윤율을 중심으로 한 마르크스 비율1970-2003년 한국경제에 대해 추계하고 그 결과를 음미하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이 논문의 주요 발견은 다음과 같다 . 첫째, 한국에서 비생산노동의 비 중 증대 추세는 1980년대 말부터 시작되었다. 그 이전까지 한국에서 생산노 동 비중은 매우 높은 수준을 유지했으며 , 이는 1980년대 말까지 한국자본주 의의 고도축적의 주요한 배경이 되었다. 둘째, 1980-2000년 한국의 잉여가치 율은 140% 내외의 높은 수준에서 대체로 안정되어 있었으며 , 1990년대 들어 소폭 상승한 것으로 추계되었다. 셋째, 1970-2002년 비농업민간부문의 이윤 율은 장기적 저하 추세를 보였다. 2002년의 이윤율은 6.6%로서 고점인 1978 16.7%1/3 수준 밖에 되지 않았다 . 박정희 시대의 높은 이윤율은 이윤 몫의 상승, 즉 착취율의 상승에 기인했다. 1987년 이후 약 10년에 걸친 이윤 율의 저하가 1997년 경제위기로 이어졌으며 , 1997년 경제위기 이후 이윤율 회복은 착취율의 상승과 고정자본의 감가에 기인했다 . 핵심주제어 : 비생산적 노동, 잉여가치율, 이윤율 * 이 논문은 2003년도 한국학술진흥재단의 지원 (KRF-2003-005-B00006)에 의하여 연 구되었음 . 또 이 논문은 경상대학교 2005학년도 연구보조인력지원계획 의 지원을 받았음. 이 논문의 초고는 2005년 경제학공동학술대회 한국사회경제학회 분과 (2005.2.25)와 경상대학교 사회과학연구원 주최 국제학술대회 (2005.5.20) 및 제 2맑스코뮤날레(2005.5.27)에서 발표되었다 . 김정주, 성낙선 , Lefteris Tsoulfidis 교수와 익명의 심사위원의 유익한 논평에 감사드린다 . 이 논문에서 제시된 각종 수치와 표 및 그림이 근거하고 있는 자료들은 지면 제약으로 수록하지 못했지만 , 필자에 게 요청하면 제공받을 수 있다 . Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.

한국경제의 마르크스 비율 분석_정성진

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:1970-2003293: 1970-2003*1)Trend of Marxian Ratios in Korea: 1970-2003 Jeong,SeongJin 1970-2003 . ., 1980 . , 1980 .,1980-2000 140% ,1990 .,1970-2002 .2002 6.6% 1978 16.7% 1/3 . , .1987 10 1997,1997 .:,,*2003(KRF-2003-005-B00006). 2005 .2005(2005.2.25)(2005.5.20)2 (2005.5.27).,,LefterisTsoulfidis . ,.Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.29425. ,1970-2003. Shaikh andTonak(1994),((1990;2004),(1994),(1996),(2000;2005),(2005)). . . 2 ,3 .4 . . : 1970-20031. ,. , Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-2003295./ ,./. HardtandNegri(2004) Laibman(1999) .Hardtand Negri(2004) /.1) / . / ./ , Shaikh andTonak(1994) .ShaikhandTonak(1994) , . .2)/1)HardtandNegri(2004) . . . . ,,.(106-107,135,145).2) / Moseley(1992;2004),Mohun(1998;2002; 2003;2004b),SavranandTonak(1999),.Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.29625 . . ///., . , . , (), . ,,,,,, , ,,,,. (1990),(1996)(2000) . , . Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-2003297.. (1990) (1996) ( ) * . ,,,, , , , ,, ,, .3)1992 * .4)1992 3)(1996).,.. / ,1990.4) * . . 1980 . *(1985 ) . * . , * Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.29825 , 1992*./ *.1980. / . , ,,, ,, ,,, ./ (ShaikhandTonak(1994), Mohun(2003;2004b;2004c)) *. // /,(1990),(1996),(2000)/// / ,/ / * //..Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-20032992.21* . (1) (Lpi*/Li*) * (Lpi*)(Li*).(2) (Li) .( 1986,1987 Li .)(3) (Lpi) (1) (Lpi*/Li*)(2)(Li). (4)(Lp)(3)(Lpi).Lp=Lpi=(Lpi*/Li*)*Li(5)(Lp/L)(4)(Lp) ((2) (Li).L=Li).3.() , . (Wp).Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.30025(1) * (wpi) . (Wpi*)(Lpi*).(2)(wui) * (Wui*)(Lui*).(3)(1) (wpi) 2 2 (Lpi) (Wpi') (,Wpi'=wpi*Lpi), (2) (wui)Lui (Wui')(, Wui'=wui*Lui).(4)(3)Wpi'Wpi'Wui',Wpi'/ (Wpi'+Wui').(5)(4) , Wpi'/(Wpi'+Wui') (Wi) (Wpi).Wpi=(Wpi'/(Wpi'+Wui'))*Wi.(6)(Wp)(5) . Wp=Wpi=(Wpi'/(Wpi'+Wui'))*Wi. (Wu) (W=Wi)Wp.Wu=W-Wp=Wi-Wp.Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-20033014. . 1980-2003 . 1987 95% ,1987 200380.3%.1987 80% ,1987 2003 56%. 1980,1990. , 1980 79.9% 1988 88.2% 200371%. 1980 ,1980 . /. , 1970-19871886.2%79.9%6%,1987-19971110%.Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.30225. . 1980 30% . 1980-90. 1999 66.5% . / 1997.1980-2000 . 198070-75% 1990 2000 58.7% . ., Luu( ) Lup( )3,. (Luu/L) 1980 20.8% 2000 30.1% , (Lup/L)19809.1%19865.8%,200011.2%.Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-2003303. : 1980-20001.. / . , , , . , ShaikhandTonak(1994) . . (),, ., .5)Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.30425.6)ShaikhandTonak(1994: 86,141-143), , , , , .., .( 3 2 ) ,.. 2.2 (v) , (v+s) , s=(v+s)-v , 5) (v+s) (v). (inversetransformation)E() .(1998),Rieu(2005). 6) ..Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-2003305s'=s/v=((v+s)-v)/v. .Shaikhand Tonak(1994).(=MPP+MTP+ RYP+WPP+WUP+PP+MPT+MTT+RYT+WT+PT)(c+v+s).1(primaryflow)(1), ( ). 2(secondaryflow.1)(MPRY+MTRY+ RYRY+WRY+PRY)., (GOT=MPT+MTT+RYT+WT+PT)2() 21 .() , ShaikhandTonak(1994:45,85) , . , Wolff(1987) (1990) , (), GOT , MTP, Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.30625.(c+v+s)(c).(c+v+s) (v+s) . ,MPP( ,) MTP( ) . ,MPPMTP. (WPP+WUP+PP),(GOT=MPT+MTT+RYT+WT+PT)2(RYP).(s)(v+s) (v).2 ,WPP . (s) . (PP), ()(WUP),2(RYP),(GOT). (GDP) (W=WPP+WUP+WT+WRY)(P=PP+PT+PRY),2 ,WRY+PRY,Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-20033072(RYP)(MPT+MTT+RYT). / ,c,v, s . Mage(1963), Moseley(1992), Mohun(2004b;2004c), / .() (monetaryexpressionofvalue,E),Gouverneur(2004),Mohun(2004c)(1996),(2000;2005). E, . E((v+s)(c))GDP.Mohun(2004b;2004c)/,ShaikhandTonak (1994).7)7) (1996) ShaikhandTonak(1994) .(1996) / * * 2 1 . Rieu(2005) / .Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.308253. ., (operatingsurplus), (s) , . , . , (wageequivalent) .(v+s),(v) . (s/v), ,,. , (downward biased)..(1990), . 1980 . Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-2003309ShaikhandTonak(1994) (wageequivalent) .(1)(wi) (Wi)( 4 ) (Li).8)wi=Wi/Li.(2)(1) (wi) (Ai,) (Wei).Wei=(Wi/Li)*Ai(3)(We)(2)(Wei).We=Wei=(Wi/Li)*Ai4.1980-2000. 1980-2000140%8) (Li) (2005) . ,(full-time equivalent). Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.31025. 1980 161.5%,1988 125.8% ,2000138.9%. ,1980-2000 . . ,(2005) Wolff(1987) ,. Mohun(2004) , . ,(2005) (1990)./, , ,(,). ,(2005),Wolff(1987),Mohun (2004),(1990) 1995 . 2,WRYPRY1990,(2005), Wolff(1987),Mohun(2004) (1990) .Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-2003311 .(1994),(1996)(2000) , (2005) .(1994)(2000) , (2005) .(1996)(2005) ShaikhandTonak(1994) (2005) ,21/ . 1980-2000 . . (PP), (WUP),2 (RYP),(GOT).1980-2000 PP,PP 198032.4%198639.3%.PP1987,2000 21.4%.PP1997 1998 29.8% 2000 21.4% . ,RYP 1980 (12.8%),1990 ,200031.6%. WUP 1980 1990 Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.31225199816.1%200022%.1990 , 2 1990 . 1980-2000 , (c+v+s) . 1980 c:v:s 59:16:25,2000 57: 18:25.(v+s) GDP. GDP 1995 1 . GDP (WRY+PRY)(RYP+MPT+MTT+RYT). ,, GDP .. : 1970-20021. 1970-2002 . 1970-2000 ,(2004)Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-2003313./. , .(Marx,1990:30) ./ . ,/ , , , . . / Wolff(1987),Mohun (2004c)Wolff(2003),Mohun(2004a)/ . ShaikhandTonak(1994)/, Shaikh(1992;1999) / . Brenner(1998) Dumniland Lvy(2002;2004)/. Moseley(1992;2004),/. ,Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.31425 . ,Moseley(1992) (Kp) (s),s/KP,Shaikh(1999),Brenner(1998),Dumniland Lvy(2002;2004), (K=KP+KT+KRY) (P=PP+PT+PRY) , P/K . (1)(s) , (KP) ,K=KP+KT+KRY. PK=PP+PT+PRYKP+KT+KRY=s -sU+PRYKP+KU(1)(1)sU(PT),sU=WUP+RYP+(GOTPT), . KU KT2KRY,KU=KT+KRY. (1), (sU)(KU),2(PRY) . .9)9) Mage(1963) ,Moseley(1992;1997;1999;2004) . Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-2003315. . . . , , . . / / . ,, , . , . 10 :(1), (2),(3),(4),(5),(6),(7),(8),(9),(10). . (1) (PT) 2 (PRY).Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.31625:(1)+(2)+(3)+(4)+(5)+(6)+(7)+(8)+(9):(2)+(3)+(4)+(5)+(6)+(7)+(8)+(9):(1)+(2)+(3)+(4)+(5)+(6)+(7)+(8):(2)+(3)+(4)+(5)+(6)+(7)+(8):(2)+(3)+(4)+(5)+(6) , ./,/ , . ./ ,/ .(2005)/, / . . / ,/(). Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-2003317 . .(1)(K)(P),P/K.(2)K (2000) (Ki) .K=Ki.(3)(Pi). P=Pi.(4) ,Pi Yi Wi.Pi=Yi-Wi.(5)Yi (domesticfactorincomes).(grossoutput)(intermediate consumption)(consumptionoffixedcapital).(6) Wi (Wi*) (Wei).Wi=Wi*+Wei.(Wei)3 3. (Ai, ) 1(Wi*/Li).Wei=(Wi*/Li)*Ai. 1(Wi*) (Li) . (Li) Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.31825(Ai)(1970,1975,1980,1985, 1990,1995,2000).(7) (H) (Hi).H=Hi.(Hi) (L*i,(Li)(Ai) . L*i=Li+Ai) 1 (hi).Hi=L*i*hi.L*iAi,hi.(8)GDPPy GDP (2000 ) GDP .GDPGDP .(9) Pk (2000 ) . (2000).10)2. (2)(P/Y) (Y/K) 10)(2000) 2000 . 2003 . . Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-2003319.11),-(P/W) , -(K/W) .12)(2)(3). PK=PYYK(2) +=KYYPKP(3)(2)(3)(P/Y)(Y/K) . Mohun(2004a) (Y/K) (4) ,(5).11)(2)ShaikhandTonak(1999),DumnilandLvy(2002;2004),Wolff(2003), Mohun(2004a),Jang(1999), (2001),(2004),(2004),(2005), .12) P/Y=P/(W+P)=(P/W)/(1+P/W)=1/((1/(P/W))+1),Y/K=(Y/W)/(K/ W).Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.32025

KY

I/(I/K)In (InY)(I/In):'

(I/K)H(InY)H

(4) +=HPk KHPy YPkPyKY ) / ( ) / ((5)(4)(5)(Pk)GDP(Py)(Py/Pk)((Y/Py)/H),((K/Pk)/H), . (6) ((Y/Py)/H) ((W/Py)/H),GDP .(6),.PY=Y-WY=(YPy)/H-(WPy)/H(YPy)/H(6)3.1970-8612-16%Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-2003321 ,1987 1996 5.1% ,. 1970-2002 . 1997 1986-1996198613.3%1996 5.1%.1986 1997 . 1997 1996 1970 . 1997 . 1996 1997 .20026.6%,1970-2000197816.7%1/3.1997 5 .,,,, . 1970-2002 ,1970-80 ,1980 1997,1997 ,.13) 13)(stylizedfacts), 1980 ,Jang(1999),(2001),(2004),(2005) .Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.32225 1970 1980 , 1980 ,1997 10 ,1997 1980 . , . 1970-1986326%,1986-2002 52% . 1970-2002 . 1997 1986-1996 . 1997 (98.5%!).199615.3%200219.9%. 1997 .1970-1986' . 197023.6%198033%,198630.4%19701.3. .Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-2003323 1970-2002 .197054.5%198039.5%,1987 45% , 1998 28.6% .1997,200232.9%. 1970-2002 .1996-2002 1970-2002(),(K/Pk)/H. ((Y/Py)/H).,1997 .1997((Y/Py)H) (Pk) GDP(Py) , Py/Pk . 2000 Py/Pk Py , Pk .2000 Pk 1970.Pk 1997 .1970-2002Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.32425.1971-80,19711979,((W/Py)/H)((Y/Py)/H) . ,,, .19801980 2,1980. (1) , .1980 ,1980 .14)14) . (P/K) (2)(P/Y)(Y/K)(1)/,sUKU ,( (1) (2) ), , .Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-2003325. 1970-2003 ., 1980 .,1980. ,1980-2000140% ,1990. / . 1970-2002.20026.6%197816.7%1/3. 1970-1987, , .1970-2002 1980,.1997 .1997 , . 1970-2003 / Jeong(1997), 1970-80 1980 Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.32625 1997 ,1987.,2005,, 2005,2000, , ,2005,1980, 2005,1994,, ,1996,,,2001,,, 1998,-E, ,11,2004,,,1990, , ,2004,1997, Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-2003327,64,2000, (1953-2000),,91Brenner,R.1998,UnevenDevelopmentandtheLongDownturn:The AdvancedCapitalistEconomiesfromBoomtoStagnation,1950-1998, NewLeftReview,No.229[,,,2001]Dumnil,G.andD.Lvy.2002,TheProfitRate:WhereandHowMuchDid ItFall?DidItRecover?USA1948-2000,ReviewofRadicalPolitical Economics,Vol.34,No.4Dumnil,G.andD.Lvy.2004,TheRealandFinancialComponentsof Profitability(UnitedStates,1952-2000),ReviewofRadicalPolitical 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: 1970-2002 (1)P/K (2)P/Y (3)Y/K P/Y Y/K1970-2002 -1.47% -0.61% -0.86% 41.33% 58.67%1970-1986 -0.33% 0.75% -1.09% -226.32% 326.32%1986-2002 -2.17% -1.03% -1.14% 47.54% 52.46%1986-1996 -3.92% -2.52% -1.40% 64.32% 35.68%1996-2002 1.66% 1.63% 0.02% 98.53% 1.47%: 1) (annualexponentialrateofgrowth) . . 2)(1)=(2)+(3) : 1970-2002 (1)Y/K (2)Py/Pk (3)(Y/Py)/H (4)(K/Pk)/H (5)(W/Py)/H1970-2002 -0.86% 0.58% 1.98% 3.42% 2.17%1970-1986 -1.09% 1.10% 1.50% 3.68% 1.22%1986-2002 -1.14% 0.16% 2.13% 3.42% 2.44%1986-1996 -1.40% 0.02% 2.34% 3.75% 3.08%1996-2002 0.02% 0.40% 1.64% 2.01% 1.28%: 1)1).2)(1)=(2)+(3)-(4)Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.33225 /* :(),() (Lp/L): 1980-200340%50%60%70%80%90%100%1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 (Lp/L):1980-2003Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-2003333 (Lp/L):1970-2003 ()50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%100%1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000()()()() / : 1980-20000%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1980 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1990 1993 1995 1998 2000: Lp( ), Lup( ), Luu( )LuuLupLp (Lp/L):1970-2003() /: 1980-2000Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.33425 / :1980-20000%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1980 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1990 1993 1995 1998 2000: Wp(Lp ), Wup(Lup ), Wuu(Luu )WuuWupWp : Shaikh and Tonak(1994) 2 MPPMPTMPRYCPIPGPXP MTPMTTMTRYCTITGTXT2 RYPRYTRYRYRYCRYIRYGRYXWPPWTWRYWUP PPPTPRY KPKTKRY:M(),P(. ),T(),RY(2( );,,),W(),P(),C(),I(),G(),X().MPP( ,),MTP(),RYP( 2 ),WPP( ),WUP(),WT().KP(),KT(),KRY(2) /: 1980-2000Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-2003335 : 1980-20000%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%1980 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1990 1993 1995 1998 2000 : 1980-2000 ()0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%1980 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1990 1993 1995 1998 2000(2005)Wolff(1987)Mohun(2004)(1990) : 1980-2000 : 1980-2000()Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.33625 :1985-20000%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%1985 1986 1987 1988 1990 1993 1995 1998 2000(2005)(1996)(1994)(2000) : 1980-20000%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1980 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1990 1993 1995 1998 2000: GOT(), RYP(), WUP( ), PP()GOTRYpWupPp : 1980-2000 : 1985-2000GOTCopyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-2003337 : 1970-20020%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 : 1970-2002-0.4-0.200.20.40.60.811.21970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Y/KPy/Pk(Y/Py)/H(K/Pk)/H : 1970-2002 : 1970-2002Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.33825 GDP (Py) (Pk)1970-200200.20.40.60.811.21970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000PkPy : 1970-2002-10%0%10%20%30%40%1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000: P/Y , (Y/Py)/H (W/Py)/H P/Y(Y/Py)/H(W/Py)/H GDP (Py)(Pk)1970-2002 : 1970-2002Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.:1970-2003339ABSTRACTTrendofMarxianRatiosinKorea:1970-2003Jeong,SeongJinDepartment of Economics, Gyeongsang National UniversityThispaperattemptstoestimatekeyMarxianratios,includingtherateof surplusvalue,fortheKoreaneconomyduring1970-2003.Thispapertriesto substantiallyreviseandupdateexistingstudiesbytherigorousapplicationof Marxianmethodandusingmoreaccuratedatasourcesonproductiveand unproductivelabor.Unproductivelaborhasonlybeguntoincreasesincelate 1980sinKorea,afterithadmaintainedverylowleveltillthatperiod.The extraordinaryhighlevelofproductivelaborduring1970-80sseemstoberelated withtherapideconomicgrowthinthisperiod.Therateofsurplusvaluehas sustainedfairlystablelevel,around140%,during1980-2000inKorea.Therate ofprofitforthenon-farmbusinesssectorhasfallensignificantlyduring 1970-2002.Itwas6.6%in2002,onlyaboutathirdof1978,16.7%,the highestpointduring1970-2002.Fallingrateofprofitwasbehindtheeconomic crisisof1997.Recoveryoftherateofprofitsince1997crisiswaslargely indebtedtoincreasingexploitationaswellasdramaticdevaluationoffixed capital.Key-words:Unproductivelabor,rateofsurplusvalue,rateofprofit*:2005.7.15,:2005.7.19,:2005.8.9Copyright (C) 2005 NuriMedia Co., Ltd.