MGH 2

1

(evidence-based medicine)

P)p(

Citations

MGH 3

Citation

CITATIONS: are footnotes to reference published with a scholarly journal article .

1962ISIInstitute for Scientific InformationScience Citation index (SCI)

Cited reference

Citation Medline) (

SCIMedlineInspec

MGH 4

Impact factor Citation index

Impact factor Citations (impact factor)

(The New England journal of medicine)34.833

(Saudi medical journal)0.306 (American Journal of Preventive Medicine ) 3.256 (respiratory research)4.03

Citations Impact factor

MGH 5

60

(HCR)

5000500

500

MGH 6

MGH 7

MGH 8

Snow

Statistical Analysis

Excel

MGH 9

Data

- CasesObservationsRecords

-

VariablesFields

Values variables

cases

GIS

MGH 10

dependentoutcome independentexposure

MGH 11

Measurement scales

Categorical Nominal

A, B, AB, O

Dichotomous Nominal Yes/No , binary, logical

coding0, 1

MGH 12

Ordinal

1 I, II, III, IV, VIIIIIIIIIIIIIIV

2 I, II, III, IV 3

||||||

10,000||10,00020,000

||20,00040,000||40,000 015||1545||

MGH 13

Continuous

Interval

Ratio

cyclic

variables

506070

(50+60+70) / 3 =60 nominal

21:00,

01:00, 02:00(21+1+2) / 3 = 8

Continuous

165

MGH 14

proportionbinary

23 Rate

5.5

Time to an event

Data Types

Numeric String

Date

Currency Binary

MGH 15

coding

Martial status

* 1 single * 2 divorced * 3 widowed * 4 married

) 1,2,3,4. (

. ( .

MGH 16

MGH 17

scaleordinal

100001200020000

30000100002000020000300003000040000

MGH 18

Descriptive statistics

Inferential Statistics

Inferential statistics

Estimation a parameter within population

Detect Relations between variables.

Predict values: one variable based on others, parameters of the population,.

1

2 2020

MGH 19

there is no other way of representing "meaning" except in terms of relations between some quantities or qualities; either way involves relations between variables

Population and samples

Population) Censussampleinterference

Sampling variation

Population 10

target population

Population

MGH 20

census

Representing sample

students are typical

Observational

Experimental

MGH 21

Confounders

association causation

Confounders

MGH 22

ExcelAccessExcel

ExcelAccess

1 SAS System 1982

SAS

PC Personal computerMain frameWindows,

Unix, Linux, Mac

MGH 23

SAS Specialist

2 SPSS

Graphics

3 STATISTICA SPSSGraphics

SPSS 4 Epi Info

5 RS-Plus

:

MGH 24

- 2 spss

Data view Variable view

SPSS Viewer

Data View

Value Labels

Labels

30

MGH 25

Variable view Variable view

Name

_

Underscore

Label

Measure Scale/, Ordinal, Nominal

MGH 26

TYPE

Numeric Date dollarcustom currency String

Character

Values

ValueValue

Label

MGH 27

Missing Values

SPSS MissingSPSS

MGH 28

ExcelFileOpen

DataExcel . Files of type

MGH 29

3

Reliability - Unbiased

Reliable and unbiased

Reliable = Free of random error. (stochastic error) Unbiased = Free of systematic error.

ReliablePrecision

UnbiasedAccuracy

MGH 30

BiasReliability (a)intra-arterial cannula

(b)sphygmomano-meter

Unreliable

Unreliable Results Cant be used.

biased

Validation

MGH 31

Validity Unbiased

Bias ReliableUnbiasedUnvalid

Gold standard

Internal VExternal V

ValidReliableUnbiased

Validation study

-4 -

Descriptive Statistics

Pictorial Numerical summaries

v

MGH 32

Frequency distributions

Frequency Table Frequency

Percent

Valid percent

Cumulative percent

MGH 33

-

100 - ordinal

Frequency Analysis

significant figures

92420420.452497551420

0.452%45.2

MGH 34

2650224,175,9000.00109621560.001090.0011110

100,000

Graphics 1 Bars

. Frequency

MGH 35

2 Pie

SPSS AnalyzeDescriptive Statistics

Frequencies Charts OK

MGH 36

Histogram 512

Grouping140160160180161179

MGH 37

SPSS cm140

cm140cm 1499

Frequency Percent Cumulative frequency

=190 4 0.2 100

MGH 38

histogram

MGH 39

histogram , bars

bars

Histogram

MGH 40

Steam and leaf diagrams histogram

leaves

Frequency Stem & Leaf 3.00 1 . 259 12/15/ 19 4.00 2 . 0224 20/22/22/24 8.00 3 . 01125689 30/31/31/32/35/36/ 7.00 4 . 0002457 40/40/40/42/44/45/47 5.00 5 . 01127 50/51/51/52/57 4.00 6 . 2789 62/67/68/69 2.00 7 . 04 70/74 1.00 8 . 0 80

Stem width: 10.00 Each leaf: 1 case(s) stem * stem width + leaf =X E.g. 1*10+2=12

MGH 41

Frequency Analysis

Crosstabulation

MGH 42

CrosstabulationSPSS AnalyzeDescriptive statisticsCrosstabs

Cells PercentageRowColumn

MGH 43

Clustered bar chart

male ,female

Clustered bar chart

MGH 44

22.2 20.6

77.1 74.2

0.8 1.20 4.30

102030405060708090

Male Female

singlemarrieddivorcedwidowed

Scale scatter plots

MGH 45

Time series

Time series

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Income

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330Times (minutes)

Con

cent

ratio

n (m

g/10

0 m

l)

Healthy not-healthy

MGH 46

Stacked bar chart

3-D graphics

single marrieddivorced widowed

single married divorced widowed

MGH 47

None Win Mac

01020304050607080

`

Mac Win None

n

MacWinNone

McGill

MGH 48

0102030405060708090

Male Female

singlemarrieddivorcedwidowed

Stacked bar chart

Stacked bar chartClustered bar chart

1990

2000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Male Female

widoweddiv orcedmarriedsingle

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Income

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Income

MGH 49

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Income

198200202204206208210212214

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Income

1980

MGH 50

Rubber-band Scales

MGH 51

MGH 52

11010

100

1970

100

100

10101 1001002 100010003 10010

MGH 53

21

3

1 2 3

- :

.

45 HGM

5

: )tnemirepxe(

) ....( : . )ecaps elpmaS( . )semoctuO( : )tnevE(

. : :

. }6,5,4,3,2,1{ * . 6,5, 4, 3, 2 ,1 semoctuO * 1 *

...) : )elpmiS(

dnuopmoC ()

( . ( {1} ) 1 :

4 2 .. }6,4,2 { 6

B A :(noinU) . B U A

A : (noitcesretnI) . B A B A: )tnemelpmoc(

. A A A :

.

: .

: . A * . B *

.

55 HGM

B U A * .

BA * .

4 321 ) A * (6 .

B ,A : .

:)evisulcxe yllautuM( .

3 1 : * .

a n: . n/a

84 001 : * . 84.0

: (ytilibaborp) .

.

65 HGM

A B

B,A B, A

1 < P > 0 : P

. ) ( 0=P * . ) ( 1=P *

A( B A: . )B U

6/1 1 * 6/2 3 1 6/1 3

)A( : P -1 . 3.0 = 7.0-1 7.0 *

: B A: )B A( P )B(P + )A(P = )B U A( P

( 6 4 2 ) 2 * )6/4( = )6/1( )6/2( + )6/3( = P(6, 3 ) 3

(

B UA * )( .

M 2E N 1E: . M x N

* .

.

75 HGM

01 5 *= 01 x 01 x 01 x 01 x 5 = M x N x....... :

00005

sddO . . : )ssol( ytilibaborp / )niw( ytilibaborP= )P-1( / P = sddO

)sddO+1( / sddO = P

) P : sddo

.( P > sddO . sddO P )1.0< P( P : . 1 = sddO ) 5.0=P( :

ytilibaborP lanoitidnoC

A B A . B

: )3,2,1( : A * )4,3,2( : B * ) B = 6/3 A *

A 4,3,2( . 3/2

. )B|A(P : . )B( P / ) B A( P = )B|A( P : ) 6/2 B A )BA( P

. 3/2 = )6|3( / )6|2( = )B|A( P : ( 3 2

stneve tnednepednI

B A .

.

85 HGM

. 1 A : . 3 B

( 3 ) B .6/1

. )B(P = )A|B(P )A(P = )B|A( P :

: B A )B(P * )A(P = )BA( P

: . = *

.

: 001 *

001 (0103 *.172)

4 . ) (

001 *

.

...... ( ** ) ) ( . .

: Ai :

)iA|B(P * ) iA(P = )B( P :

)B( P / )iA|B(P * )iA(P = )B|iA( P

. B %06 A :

. : %05 %03 %04

.

95 HGM

) ( * .

* * . : ) (

00001 0083

%83 0081 0083 :

. %4.74 0083/0081 0024 0026 :

%7.76 0026/0024 .

%1 %5 %99

. *

*

.

06 HGM

99 495 * 495/99

. %7.61 6049 *

5049 . %989.99

. %1

%5 %99 *

. . *

.

yticificepS ytivitisneS

:: )PT( *

. evitisoP eurT( ) PT

.

16 HGM

: )PF( * ( evitisoP eslaF )

) ( . evitageN eslaF :)NF( * ( .) evitageN eurT :)NT( * . NF + PT: )tneitaP( * : . )yhtlaeh( * . : )tset +( * . : )tset ( * : . )lla( *

: ytivitisneS *

. : / PT *

tneitap / PT = ytivitisneS yticificepS:

*

* :

. yhtlaeh / NT = yticificepS

: VPP eulav evitciderp evitisoP : *

)tset +( / PT = VPP : VPN eulav evitciderp evitageN

: * )tset - ( / NT = VPN

:

.

26 HGM

*

. *

.

: )( %59 *

)( %09 ) %01

( . ) (

. 00001 *

. 0001 0009 %01 * %59 *

059 59.0 * 0001 0001 . 05

0009 %09 * . 009 0018 9.0 * 0009

. *

: * %59 = 0001 / 059 = tneitap / PT = ytivitisneS *

: : * % 4.15 = 0581 / 059 = )tset+( / PT = VPP *

.

36 HGM

: * %4.99 = 0518 / 0018 = )tset-( / NT = VPN *

( %09 %59 )

. %01 %1

59 099 5801 5 0198 5198

001 0099

%8.8 = 5801 / 59 = VPP : . %8.8 * :

%49.99 = 5198 / 0198 = VPN . *

.

VPN

VPP

:

.

: ) ( .

0

02

04

06

08

001

21 01 8 6 4 2 0

VPPVPN

.

46 HGM

setar ytilatroM

001

0203

040506

0708

001 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 0sititapeH %

%

yspoib lacidem yregruS

.

gnikaM-noisiceD lacinilC

05 . esatahpsohp enilaklA TPGS

: : (sititapeh cilohocla ) E

)(. ( sitignalohc) E

. . %5 :

. % 5 : : .1 : : ) ( .2

. %05 : 0 . %01 : 0

: : ) ( .3 . %52 : 0 . %57 : 0

) ( ) ( .

1

2

3

.

56 HGM

( : 1 ) * .

: ( :2 ) * .

: ( :3 ) *

. %5 *

%89 %05 .

. .

: %5 %01

. %05 .1 .2 .3

.4 .5 . ) (

%05 .1 .

%52= 0001/052 = .2= 0009/052 = .3

%68.2

.

66 HGM

= 000,01/052 = .4 %5.2

= 000,01/057,8 = .5 %5.78

.

- %01

.

: : =

x x

. :)detceffanu|reirraC( P :

)detceffanU( P , 2/1 = )detceffanu dna reirraC( P 4/3 =

)detceffanu( P / )detceffanu dna reirraC( P = )detceffanu|reirraC( P 76.0 = )4/3( / )2/1(=

: %01 760.0 = 1.0 * 76.0 = P

%52 :

)% 7.1( 57610.0 = 52.0 * 760.0 = P

: dlihc 000,01/52 = )%52.0( 5200.0 = 52.0 * 1.0 * 1.0= P

.

76 HGM

-6-\

elbairav modnaR : . :

* . 01 0

. *

. ( )

. :

. :

.

: . X * : *

4 3 2 1 0 : X 5 52651.0 5213.0 5213.0 52651.0 52130.0 : P 52130.0 57869.0 5218.0 5.0 5781.0 52130.0 :cP 1

: cP P :: X : *

: . X : . P .

.Pc

.

86 HGM

laimoniB : noitubirtsid laimoniB

. N *

. * . * . p * ) ( *

: ,01=n) 01 *

(5.0=p ,8=n) 8 4 *

(761.0=p 01 *

.(10.0=p ,01=n) 10.0 : SSPS

n ) ( )p ,n ,X (moniB.FDP =P .1. p

. X .)p ,n ,X( moniB.FDC =cP .2

. X

.

96 HGM

: X : X : )p ,n ,1-X( moniB.FDC -1=cP-1

: 761.0=6/1=p 6=n ) 6 * 5 *

8350. = )761.0 ,6 ,3 (moniB.FDP =P 2 1 0 ) 5 *

( 45 3 32199.0 = )761.0 ,6 ,3( moniB.FDC=P

5 4 3 ) 5 * ( 6

6260.0 = )761.0 ,6 ,2( moniB.FDC -1=P ) ( *

433. = )761.0 ,6 ,0 (moniB.FDP = P

noitroporP . . 02 %01 :

3 * 91.0 = )1.0 ,02 ,3(moniB.FDP =P

5 * 40.0 = )1.0,02,4( moniB .FDC 1 = P

... * 21.0 = )1.0 ,02 ,0(moniB.FDP = P

nossioP

. :

. * . * . *

:

. : SSPS

.

07 HGM

),X( nossioP.FDP=P : .1 .

: ),X( nossioP.FDC=cP .2 :

x 3 * 3) )3( nossioP

(.3= : *

6 5 4 3 2 1 0 : X 101.0 861.0 4202.0 422.0 941.0 050.0 :P 7 220.0 050.0 669.0 619.0 518.0 746.0 324.0 991.0 050.0 :cP

889.0

: *

422.0 = )3,3( nossioP.FDP=P

746.0 = )3,3( nossioP.FDC=P

775.0 = )3,2( nossioP.FDC-1=P

x 3 :

X : )3,X(nossioP.FDC E (.) 91324.0 = )3,2(nossioP.FDC : E

( 1 0 ) : 8675.0 = 91324.0-1 E

. ....( 543 )( 102 ) E

. :

* 5

.

17 HGM

04 . 04

3 32-E 5.7 = )5,04( nossioP * .

.

etaR :

000,001 01 E 6 000,02

000,001 01 ) E : (4 000,02

01.0 = )4,6( nossioP.FDP= P 5

E .

E .

: . p : 0 : 0

.

) ( )

( 261 )x(F )x(f

. ...... : :

051 041 . )041(F )051(F

.

27 HGM

=P )071(F 071 =P )071(F -1 071

: :

) ... (

.

.

.

.

37 HGM

: ) ( E (evitagen ) ( evitisop ) E

. ladom . U

: E

.

.

47 HGM

E .

: E

( ) ) (

- - - : -

.

77 HGM

- 7-

ecnairav & ycnednet lartneC

ycnednet lartneC : , :

: naeM ) / (

. eulav detcepxe . : edoM : )(

E sdohtem lacirtemarap

-non . sdohtem lacirtemarap

: naideM E .

: :(1) E 581 771 071 851 541 431

391 661 = 7 / )391++541+431( = naeM ( . 071 ) naideM 7 naideM . edoM :(2) E

001 001 001 001 001 001 001 001 001 0001

. 001 = naidem , 091 = naeM

.

.

87 HGM

elbailer

. naideM naeM

)( . edoM > naideM > naeM :

. )(

/ :

.

. ) ( :

. )

(. .

sreiltuO ) ( .

04 054 021-08

.

97 HGM

) .... (

: . ) / (. )

(.

selitnecreP & selitrauQ : .

%05 naideM

rewoL %52 elitrauQ

reppU %57 litrauQ

elitnecrep-n n

. . 001 : 431 = muminiM : 1 391 = mumixaM : 001 05 = naideM : 05 =elitrauq rewoL : 52

851 771 = elitrauq reppU: 57

5ht 541 = elitnecrep : 5 59ht =elitnecrep: 59

581

-ixaMmum

ht59-necrepelit

reppUnaidemelitrauq

rewoLelitrauq

ht5-necrepelit

-iniMmum

1552055759001

431541851071771581091

-ixaMmum

ht59-necrepelit

reppUnaidemelitrauq

rewoLelitrauq

ht5-necrepelit

-iniMmum

1552055759001

431541851071771581091

.

08 HGM

: : STRAHC

: (ni, mc )

. .

( )

52 : 52 . 57

5 . 59

ecnairaV fO serusaeM :

.

: egnaR .1 mumixaM = egnaR :

muminiM: ytilibailernU :

.

.

18 HGM

: (RQI) egnaR elitrauqretnI .2 rewoL elitrauQ reppU = RQI :

elitrauQ

.

: ecnairaV .3-N( / )naeM X( muS :ecnairaV :

)1 1 /

0 N 1-N

) 1-N 0 (naem

) ( . desaibnU 1-N N ) (

. 1-N . :

.

:) ( noitairaV: V lacigoloiB eurT

. snoitavresbo gnikaM

: snoitidnoc tnereffid rednu ) ( citametsyS

.

.

28 HGM

: V tnemerusaeM .

. ) (: :

: noitairav tcejbus-nihtiW .

: stcejbus neewteb noitairaV .

: noitaiveD dradnatS .4 )ecnairaV( RQS =DS : . ) :

(. ecnairaV DS naeM DS*N

: noitairav fO tneiciffeoC .5 naeM / DS = noitairav fO tneiciffeoC : :

(. )

.

. ) = +

(. . . 2 051 %1 :

( Hp lC K aN) %01 .%04-01

: .6 :

:)ssenwekS( .

(. ) : )sisotruK( . .

.

.

38 HGM

noitubirtsiD lamroN ) , ,X (lamroN.FDP = )x(f :

:

)( . ) ( . )( . + - . 1

.

48 HGM

: ,-( )+

6286.0 ,2-( )2+

4459.0 ,3-( )3+ 3

4799.0

. 01 061 . 071 .1

071 ) ( . 1.071 9.961

. 071 051 .2-)01,061,071(LAMRON.FDC =P

386.0 = )01,061,051(LAMRON.FDC

: 051 .3 6851. = )01,061,051( lamroN.FDC=P

571 .4

.

58 HGM

8660. = )01 ,061 ,571( lamroN.FDC -1 =P

2 .5 176130000. = )01 ,061 ,002( lamroN.FDC -1 = P

)nollim/23(

051 ,X( lamroN.FDC

)01, = 071 051 X

. 051 071 1 = 071

. 071

% 01

. : ) (

)1.0-1(=)01,051,X( lamroN.FDC :

), , p( lamroN.FDI =X 8.271 = )01 ,051 ,9.0( lamroN.FDI = X

: : noitcnuF ytisneD ytilibaborP E

), ,X(lamroN.FDP=P SSPS .

noitcnuF noitubirtsiD evitalumuC E

), ,X(lamroN.FDC =P SSPS snoitcnuF noitubirtsiD esrevnI E

: SSPS ), ,p(lamroN.FDI=X

: :

.

68 HGM

:) ...( .1 .

. ) ...(. .2 (. FDI,FDC ,FDP ) .3 . .4

. Z 1 0 x:

. /)-x(=z (elbairaV dezidradnatS ) z

. 061 01 051 :

1 1=01/051-061 .

.

.

. %99 ]3+,3-[ Z

. . 3+>Z 3-

.

78 HGM

. (nX ,3X 2X ,1X ) : :

.

naeM . )n( rqS/

. )n( rqS/ naem eht fo rorrE dradnatS DS

:

noitubirtsiD lamroN . . :

. ) (

. kcabdeeF :

. )( . :

: .

.

88 HGM

: kcabdeeF

.

.

.

.

SSPS

: : SSPS

. sevitpircseD scitsitatS evitpircseD ezylanA . mumixam ) snoitpO

.)....... ecnairav ,egnar, muminim, . , KO

:

.

98 HGM

: SSPS . erolpxE scitsitatS evitpircseD - ezylanA . elbairav tnednepeD evitpircseD ) scitsitatS

sreiltuO ...( elitnecreP

.( tlopxoB ,faeL dna metS, margotsiH) stolP

.

09 HGM

)(

:

.

19 HGM

tolpxoB

.

.

29 HGM

. naideM ( ) .

.

.

erolpxE erolpxE

. scitsitatS evitpircseD ezylanA : :

. erolpxE . elbairav tnednepeD . tsil rotcaF

.

39 HGM

:

) : ( .

sreiltuO

. sreiltuO

.

49 HGM

)(: : : lacirtemaraP .I

2 > |Z| = reiltuO laitnetoP

3 > |Z| = reiltuO dekraM

. %5.0 %5 6>Z Z 01 BD

) (. . . tolP P-P margotsiH

: lacirtemarap-noN .II egnaR elitrauqretnI *5.1 edistuO = reiltuO laitnetoP egnaR elitrauqretnI*3 edistuO = reiltuO dekraM

: . (RQI*3) . RQI( *3) RQI( *5.1)

: sreiltuo dna tolpxoB

QLMQU

123456789011121314151

621031051051051551651061061261461461561081781

QLMQU

123456789011121314151

621031051051051551651061061261461461561081781

051= QL : E )( .

061= : M E ) (

461= QU : E . )(

: RQI E

41 = 051-461 = RQI

: E

.

59 HGM

00.

51.

1.5

2.2.

5rF

qeeu

cny

08 06 04 02 0)syaD( yatS fo htgneL

2= ) 5.1 *41( :RQI *5.1 581 = 12 + 461 921 = 12 051

laitnetoP 921 581 0

. : E

24 = ) 3 * 41( :RQI *3 801 = 24 051

602 = 24 + 461

dekraM 801 602 0 .

. : (1)

8.02

0.41 [ 82.84, 96.6-] %59

. [05, 3 ] %59 .

( :2 )

. 1.5

4.6 ,4.7-[ %59 . ]6.71

. , 5 = Z( 5=4.6/1.5-73 = Z : 73

. ( )noillim/3.0=P

.

69 HGM

%59 73

:

. naideM naeM : .ssenwekS .)( : sisotruK : ) margotsiH fael dna metS

(. tolP xoB : tolp ytilibaborP lamroN

.

) D vorogomloK kliW-oripahS . (

. sisotruK ssenwekS

.

79 HGM

) (. .

.001 . liaT yvaeH

noitubirtsid laitnenopxE: .1

) (

. sselyromeM

. . PXE.FDP SSPS

::

) ( 3= . 3/1

. :

. . . sselyromeM

) ( .

-

.

: .2

.

89 HGM

: (.A.)

: (.B)

: (.C) .

(.D).

.

: ammaG .3

.

. . AMMAG.FDP

: mrofinU .4 )

. ( .

.

SSPS . MROFINU.FDP

.

.

99 HGM

.5

. U

:

=6/3 75 =6/3 . : : 85 . : NT : 16

: .

.

101 HGM

8

ataD lacitsitatS

. : 0 : susneC 0

. 002 001 stcart susnec

) ... ( ) ....(

: . .1 ..( ) .2 . .3

.

: gnilpmaS 0

. :

. : noitalupoP

. etinifnI etiniF 4002

. 4002

. .: elpmaS

81 0

evitatneserper .

sdohteM gnilpmaS

.

201 HGM

: gnilpmaS :gnilpmaS modnaR

. : gnilpmas modnar-noN

.

: gnilpmaS modnaR elpmiS .1

. : ) :

( ) (. :

.

: gnilpmaS deifitartS .2( )

) ( ) ( . . atartS

.

: gnilpmaS retsulC .3. retsulC

. . . .

.

retsulC deifitarts

.

301 HGM

)

(

)

(

.

.

.

: gnilpmas egats-itluM .4

.

.

.

: gnilpmaS citametsyS

) ( . .

9

noitamitsE

0 .

)

... ( .

.

401 HGM

05>n

.

naem elpmas a fo rorre dradnatS

. )n(rqs/S

. n S : .

. )

(. .

:

.

501 HGM

. ) (

.

601 HGM

noitamitsE tnioP

.

. 05

. 961 961

noitamitsE lavretnI

. noitamitsE lavretnI P

. .IC lavretnI ecnedifnoC

: 59.0=P ]5.171-5.661[

. %59 :

)naem fo rorrE dradnatS *Z( naeM

)1-N( rqS / noitaiveD dradnatS = naem fo rorrE dradnatS

:

. naeM 0 . rqS N 0 ) ( . Z 0

. ( Z . ) %59 69.1 ) ( :

. (noitaiveD dradnatS ) 0 . 0 ( Z ) 0

.

.

701 HGM

) ( ) .(

) . P(

: E.S * Z P = )P( 0

] n / )p-1( * p [ rqS = )P( .E.S 0

Z E.S * Z P = )P( : IC 0

.( 69.1=Z %59)

: . 51 04 E 573.0 = 04/51 = P : E : %59 E

051.0 573.0 =] 04 / 526.0 * 573.0 [ rqS* 69.1 573 .0

]5.25-5.22[ %59 E) %59

(%5 ]2.75-8.71[ %99 E

. (%1) %99 04) : E

. (

01 gnitseT sisehtopyH

sisehtopyH evitanretlA & lluN

: . %52 . P . 52.0=P : : oH

.

801 HGM

.52.0>P : : aH )

(. :

. .I . .II

.III .

: .

( ) .

, < , > = :

52.0 > P : aH 52.0 = P :oH P )( : sisehtopyh dedis enO

7.0 < P 52.0> P . P : sisehtopyh dedis owT

. 52.0 P :

)(.

}02..,9,8{

oH X 11=X . aH

: . deliaT reppU X: 52.0>P 0 . deliaT rewoL X :7.0P :aH 52.0=P :oH 0

.

901 HGM

: . 0 11=X X }02, ,01 ,9{ 0

. 11

:deliaT rewoL .2

. 52.0

.

011 HGM

oH tcejeRrorrE I epyTrorrE oN

oH tpeccArorrE oNrorrE II epyT

eslaF :oH52.0>P

eurT :oH52.0 = P

oH tcejeRrorrE I epyTrorrE oN

oH tpeccArorrE oNrorrE II epyT

eslaF :oH52.0>P

eurT :oH52.0 = P

I . rorrE ahplA I . oH= I :

( 52.0>P 52.0=P 02) .}02..,9,8{

02 ro .. ro 9 ro 8=X I ( 218101.0= )

. %1.01

II

. - rorrE ateB II . oH = II aH> 052.( 52.0=P : oH : )

. P: . P

P ( P :aH>0 52 , 52=P :oH : ) }02..,9,8{

( .P ) . )p(B , P

p 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 )p(B 100.0 20.0 31.0 24.0 77.0

5.0=P . %31

.

111 HGM

=3R }02,9{=2R }02..,8{= 1R

: }02,,01{

3R410.0259.0557.0214.0821.0710.0

2R40.0788.0695.0252.0750.0500.0

1R201.0277.0614.0231.0120.0100.0

3.04.05.06.07.0 P )P(B

3R410.0259.0557.0214.0821.0710.0

2R40.0788.0695.0252.0750.0500.0

1R201.0277.0614.0231.0120.0100.0

3.04.05.06.07.0 P )P(B

: ) (

.P

( . ) ) .

P (

: ecnacifingiS fo leveL : ,

) 50.0 . ( 59.0

I .

tseT leveL .

50.0 : : 2R . 50.0

.

211 HGM

10.0 50.0

) : . ( 100.0

sorrE ateB dna ahplA

0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

1

2.0 51.0 1.0 50.0 0rorre ahplA

eBat

E rr

ro

052=N 001=N 52=N

.

tseT .

( }02,..,11,01,9{ 2R) 50.0 . rewoP

fo rewoP ) .IIrorrE-1 = )p( )p( ( tset

02.0 50.0 08.0

P: ecnacifingis fo leveL P

( .%5 )

.

311 HGM

lacitirC: seulaV lacitirC

. lavretni ecnedifnoC: IC

.

52.0 :

: 52.0=P : oH : 0 . 52.0> P : aH : 0 0

: : P .1

.

: ) (

: P )

aP 52.0=oP (. 11 7.0=aP 325 3.0=aP

: ) (

) ( : ) ( .2

. P 50.0 : 3.0=P :

10.0 325 . 1821

: .3 ( )

. P 3.0=P

) ( 50.0 .

.

411 HGM

10.0 = 182106126330259.0 =

50.0 = 617498312319.0 =

50.0 = 325079271118.0 =

3.0 =P4.0 =P5.0 =P6.0 =P7.0 =P

10.0 = 182106126330259.0 =

50.0 = 617498312319.0 =

50.0 = 325079271118.0 =

3.0 =P4.0 =P5.0 =P6.0 =P7.0 =P

0 . 59811 %08 %5 62.0=P

2 ^ ] d/ S * ) bZ + aZ( [ = N 0

IC seulav-P :

. IC 0 ) ( eulav-P 0

. : IC ,

: . -P 50.0

.

511 HGM

C000529.8 ot 1.1210.0

B00043.35.8 ot 5.4-45.0

B043358 ot 54-45.0

A00030484 ot 23100.0P) P sisehtopyH lluN

. 50.0

.

251 HGM

tseT-T selpmaS-deriaP

. tseT-T tnednepeD :

0 0

: 0

.

0 . 0

T : tnednepednI ytilamroN

. ecnairaV fo ytienegomoH

: tseT T selpmas deriaP snaem erapmoC ezylanA 0

.

351 HGM

0) / (

.

: ) 0

(.

0 .

0 )

(. .

.

451 HGM

64: 0 . 5

:

.

651 HGM

rehsiF derauqs -ihC

: . 0

: ( ) 0

:

.

751 HGM

: %3.4 %2.5 0

.

. derauqs -ihC 0 scitsitatS noitalubatssorC 0

derauqs-ihC

.

851 HGM

:

erauqS-ihC nosraeP 0 . 833.0

0 %8.33

. : derauqs-ihC

. 0 ( 50.0>P / ) 0

.

50.0

.

951 HGM

%52 5 : 0

. tset tcaxE rehsiF ihC 0

.

dnert rof tset derauqs-ihC :

. 0 0

. . 0

: 000,01) 0

( 00,04 000,04 000,02 000,02 000,01

. ) ( serauqs-ihc

. P noitaicossa raenil yb raeniL

noitalerroC

: . 0

: ( ) 0

. ( )

) ( .

tneiciffeoc noitalerroC .

: . etairaviB etalerroC ezylanA 0 . 0 nosraeP stneiciffeoc noitalerroC 0

. namraepS

.

061 HGM

. KO 0

: : : noitalerroC nosraeP 0

. . ohr s'namraepS cirtemarapnoN 0

: . .

.

161 HGM

: : ]1+,1-[ r

noitanimreted fo erusaem 0 X )( Y)(

: ) 1- r 0 (.

: . r 0 : ) 1 r 0

(.) ecnacifingis

. ( 50.0

: . enifeD elpmiS rettacS hparG 0 . KO Y X 0

.

261 HGM

0

. yB srekram teS redneg

:

: noitalopartxE

.

361 HGM

. R R

. . R : sreiltuO

.

:spuorG suoenegomoh-noN 0

.

.

.

461 HGM

:

) Y X 0

(. . 0 . 0 . sreiltuo 0

J J

: 56 .1

% 5: : : 0) % 5 : :

( .( : 3 ) 0

: . %5

: 07 .2 ( 45 3 2 1 0 : o 3 2 1 0 : o

: 27 .3 5.7* 01-32 5.7 E-32 = )5,04( nossioP E 5.7-32

: 58 .4 )01, 061 ,X( lamroN.FDC )01, 051 ,X( lamroN.FDC

. 52.0 => P : aH _ 52.0 > P : aH : 901 .5

.

561 HGM

. SSPS .6 ( . 3 56+- ) .7 .8

.( ) : : .9

!! .

-

:

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