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1 Экономика и нефть Институт энергетической стратегии Генеральный директор Проф., д.т.н. В.В. Бушуев 30 сентября 2010

Экономика и нефть

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IES. Экономика и нефть. Институт энергетической стратегии Генеральный директор Проф., д.т.н. В.В. Бушуев. 30 сентября 2010. IES. Сравнительная динамика подушевого ВВП США, Германии, Китая, России. долл. / чел. 2. Источник: CIA World Factbook. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2001.html?countryName=Japan&countryCode=ja&regionCode=easjatrillion dollars

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    200714.522.9177.3572.17

    200814.522.9558.0192.291

    200914.142.818.7482.11

    2010

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    200438.2641.5178.83200438.263426

    200554.5756.6484.82200554.574812

    200665.1666.0575.95200665.164434

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    200896.9499.6775.58200896.943377

    200961.7461.9577.04200961.746633

    201055.3687577.1125201055.368756915.9

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    2005463.5513.2285.2508.7233.7

    2006244.0216.0226.5218.2256.9

    2007252.8366.1351.4368.1312.4

    2008206.7304.2304.8302.4477.5

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    2027118.3251.71198.81

    2028120.1351.66200.45

    2029122.0451.62202.29

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    17102559.953403.523677.863999.41

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    200020012002200320042005200620072008200945.850.763.277.089.3

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    292.2052430705297.1938088933295.821953292303.5542303174258.9813946907266.8882715198256.1628550008258.0335671843269.2578402856270.3802675958292.2052430705297.1938088933295.821953292303.5542303174258.981394690733.797533449538.773627857754.238181908470.8139391727

    33.797533449538.773627857754.238181908470.8139391727

    207263,4202843,5191892,7195387,7168364,9

    207.2634202.8435191.8927195.3877168.3649

    4. , , .

    , . . . .

    200520062007200820092010, . .

    649.3666.5676.3680.9635.3200520062007200820092010

    2342.22323.12361.52302.42182.0143.5142.8142.2142141.391140.367

    1771.31774.41739.81724.01622.6296.115298.93301.903304.718307.374310.252

    1572.21724.21864.42007.42177.082.582.4482.3182.228281.8

    1307.561314.481321.291328.021334.741341.414

    , . .

    200520062007200820092010

    143.5142.8142.2142141.391140.367

    296.115298.93301.903304.718307.374310.252

    489.474491.44493.589496.043497.623498.949

    1307.561314.481321.291328.021334.741341.414 . .

    121.9127.1126.3131.6124.9

    951.4943.8942.3888.5842.9

    122.4123.6112.5118.9113.9

    20052006200720082009327.8347.7364.4380.3404.6

    4.524.674.764.804.4920052006200720082009

    7.917.777.827.567.100.850.890.890.930.88

    3.623.613.523.483.263.213.163.122.922.74

    1.201.311.411.511.63 ()1.481.501.371.451.39

    0.250.260.280.290.30

    5. ( , , .) .

    ( )16.2

    6.3

    1.4

    1

    75.1

    2009 .

    ( )17.546.535.1

    ( )6.113.15.6

    1.60.21.3

    1.02.60.4

    26.262.342.420082009

    , 73.837.757.6 ( )16.217.5

    ( )6.36.1

    ( )17.546.535.11.41.6

    ( )6.113.15.6 1.01.0

    1.60.21.3 75.126.2

    1.02.60.4, 73.8

    26.262.342.4

    73.837.757.6

    2008 .

    ( )16.251.540.0

    ( )6.314.86.6

    1.40.21.3

    1.01.70.4

    75.131.851.7

    ( )16.251.540.0

    ( )6.314.86.6

    1.40.21.3

    1.01.70.4

    24.968.248.3

    75.131.851.7

    6. , ( 2000 2010 2020.

    Brent, ./ WTI, ./ Brent, ./ () ( ), ./. ()

    200028.6630.38200028.661546

    200124.4625.98200124.461504

    200224.9926.1876.17200224.991929

    200328.8531.0873.75200328.852065

    200438.2641.5178.83200438.263426

    200554.5756.6484.82200554.574812

    200665.1666.0575.95200665.164434

    200772.4472.3474.76200772.447075

    200896.9499.6775.58200896.943377

    200961.7461.9577.04200961.746633

    201055.3687577.1125201055.368756915.9

    - 2010

    , Henry Hub, NBP, TTF, Zeebrugge, Japan Average

    2005463.5513.2285.2508.7233.7

    2006244.0216.0226.5218.2256.9

    2007252.8366.1351.4368.1312.4

    2008206.7304.2304.8302.4477.5

    2009189.7185.9177.7181.5349.3

    2010

    http://www.gks.ru/wps/portal/OSI_C# ( ), ./

    ( ), ./

    20001546

    20011504

    20021929

    20032065

    20043426

    20054812

    20064434

    20077075

    20083377

    20096633

    20106915.9

    2010

    ./ . . .

    ()

    200086.7

    2001142

    2002186

    2003129

    2004275

    2005330

    2006378

    2007431

    2008533

    2009510

    2010712.16

    2010

    ( ), ./. , ./. , ./. ( )

    20005612520922441546

    20014566477714201504

    20025363488721021929

    20036976631219452065

    200492441011019273426

    200591591200041084812

    2006109651121839174434

    2007142681700067897075

    200889631018036733377

    2009138311193875846633

    2010165381306075686915.9

    2010

    . EIA 2010

    http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/graphic_data_liquidfuels.html

    200959.2159.2159.21

    201070.3070.3070.30

    201173.0657.8483.89

    201279.4154.88100.40

    201385.7453.86115.55

    201490.9152.79132.86

    201594.5251.59144.78

    201698.2351.73156.35

    2017101.2351.78166.97

    2018104.4151.82175.39

    2019106.4751.91181.21

    2020108.2851.86185.63

    2021109.5251.83188.38

    2022110.9251.82190.68

    2023112.3251.80192.76

    2024113.6351.76194.06

    2025115.0951.73196.01

    2026116.6151.71197.59

    2027118.3251.71198.81

    2028120.1351.66200.45

    2029122.0451.62202.29

    2030123.5051.63203.91

    2031125.5651.59205.32

    2032127.4351.53206.73

    2033129.2951.50207.78

    2034131.2551.49208.70

    2035133.2251.44209.60

    , , .

    , , . /

    20052006200720152020202520302035

    15.715.715.314.013.413.413.613.7

    2.82.92.92.82.72.72.72.8

    6.77.37.610.011.613.515.316.9

    (, ) 2020. .

    , . .

    20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

    1254254254254254254254254254254254

    2269271272273273275277279281283280

    3269271272273273275274273272271270

    , . .

    20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

    1218222228232236243250257262270280

    2223234246258270303309318322325335

    3223234246258270283286290294296305

    , .

    20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

    110710610410310210110098979694

    2112111111111112112110110110109114

    3112111111111112112111110110109109

    , .. ( 2020.)

    1994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009

    , . 65530,779869,18762986626,67260172885,2103070,399969,5105760,8133656181663241244301244351930467581301652

    20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

    , %105.14.77.37.26.47.78.15.6-7.94

    Brent, ./.28.424.525.029.038.254.365.172.597.161.4

    Brent (DTD)

    2000154025.36

    2000156027.9028.4

    2000169027.4024.5

    2000158022.7925.0

    2000166527.7829.0

    2000154829.6638.2

    2000164528.6454.3

    2000173730.1465.1

    2000170332.8972.5

    2000200530.8397.1

    2000201432.5961.4

    2000203225.1028.4

    2001201425.66

    2001203227.58

    2001205024.44

    2001206425.66

    2001198228.51

    2001215627.77

    2001217024.58

    2001224425.74

    2001235525.57

    2001216620.49

    2001220118.96

    2001226718.6224.5

    2002219519.48

    2002215420.19

    2002202023.72

    200297525.66

    2002110025.32

    2002152524.10

    2002211525.81

    2002345026.66

    2002355028.38

    2002355027.58

    2002405024.03

    2002410028.6725.0

    2003270031.32

    2003126534.67

    2003102530.54

    2003112524.85

    2003112525.72

    2003141227.51

    2003145028.35

    2003130029.79

    2003205027.08

    2003335029.65

    2003315028.73

    2003410029.8729.0

    2004350031.55

    2004315030.83

    2004370033.77

    2004370033.25

    2004345037.80

    2004350035.05

    2004342538.21

    2004395043.04

    2004460043.26

    2004475049.64

    2004445042.84

    2004585039.5438.2

    2005505044.23

    2005570045.37

    2005380052.91

    2005252551.80

    2005417548.56

    2005470054.41

    2005580057.63

    2005610063.05

    2005615062.91

    2005645058.61

    2005770055.30

    2005870056.9154.3

    2006760062.76

    2006705060.11

    2006575061.98

    2006570070.35

    2006770069.94

    2006800068.69

    2006700073.66

    2006795073.22

    2006770061.76

    2006775057.84

    2006830058.45

    2006760063.0165.1

    2007585053.68

    2007430057.43

    2007515062.15

    2007620067.44

    2007797567.46

    2007732571.54

    2007795077.01

    2007830070.83

    2007705076.87

    2007750082.50

    2007830092.61

    2007964090.7672.5

    2008935091.97

    2008746094.97

    20088425103.71

    20089100108.92

    20089300122.73

    200811500132.43

    200813225133.59

    200811500113.03

    2008690098.13

    2008560072.37

    2008430052.51

    2008300040.5497.1

    2009582043.59

    2009563843.07

    2009692546.56

    2009785250.33

    2009914357.48

    20091189868.55

    2009927864.36

    20091009472.82

    2009790567.39

    2009780472.75

    2009877376.65

    2009742973.7761.4

    1

    42680.6433882.8217105325.82

    46629.69404802559.959100.21

    47392.7544728.513403.5211690.2

    46380.9140874.643677.868693.8

    47701.8140678.663999.4110740.34

    2

    42680.6446629.6947392.7546380.9147701.81

    33882.824048044728.5140874.6440678.66

    17102559.953403.523677.863999.41

    5325.829100.2111690.28693.810740.34

    2005

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    3

    00000

    00000

    00000

    00000

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    28.66

    24.46

    24.99

    28.85

    38.26

    54.57

    65.16

    72.44

    96.94

    61.74

    Brent, ./

    1545.62

    1503.52

    1929.1

    2065.44

    3425.51

    4811.53

    4434.48

    7074.93

    3377.21

    6633.03

    6915.89

    ( ), ./

    86.69

    142.02

    185.83

    129.38

    274.82

    329.62

    378.05

    431.15

    532.83

    510.05

    712.16

    ()

    5611.895209.352244.271545.62

    4566.424776.841420.11503.52

    5363.094887.482102.31929.1

    6976.416311.581944.582065.44

    9243.9710110.4319273425.51

    9159.0512000.014107.784811.53

    10965.3611217.683917.214434.48

    14268.116999.996789.387074.93

    8963.3810180.013672.863377.21

    13830.6811937.587584.126633.03

    165381306075686915.89

    ( ), ./.

    , ./.

    , ./.

    ( )

    463.5414677419513.209964158285.2061051064508.6589692241233.696849296

    243.9807096774215.9901039826226.5118834238218.2471229996256.8599892155

    252.756366.1300291884351.4196681068368.1164338777312.3783753886

    206.7375483871304.1954636299304.7624125866302.4151759132477.4549053451

    189.7455185.8802606529177.7002961346181.5361750544349.2978935823

    20102010201020102010

    , Henry Hub

    , NBP

    , TTF

    , Zeebrugge

    , Japan Average

    28.661545.62

    24.461503.52

    24.991929.1

    28.852065.44

    38.263425.51

    54.574811.53

    65.164434.48

    72.447074.93

    96.943377.21

    61.746633.03

    55.368756915.89

    &A

    Page &P

    Brent, ./ ()

    ( ), ./. ()

    0.1626383490.1585655740.1543158563

    0.10600657340.10500647070.1031249442

    0.25341824910.25033129190.2488591161

    0.31163619450.29721497340.3010908312

    2007

    2008

    2009

    3.45143521.521.8410.5201632.388.03

    3.530881.621.8210.5614772.77.95

    3.60885361.681.8811.5273892.88.83

    3.58899241.741.6412.1072792.898.96

    3.62062321.731.8110.6633312.587.9

    &A

    Page &P

    59.2159.2159.21

    70.370.370.3

    73.0657.8483.89

    79.4154.88100.4

    85.7453.86115.55

    90.9152.79132.86

    94.5251.59144.78

    98.2351.73156.35

    101.2351.78166.97

    104.4151.82175.39

    106.4751.91181.21

    108.2851.86185.63

    109.5251.83188.38

    110.9251.82190.68

    112.3251.8192.76

    113.6351.76194.06

    115.0951.73196.01

    116.6151.71197.59

    118.3251.71198.81

    120.1351.66200.45

    122.0451.62202.29

    123.551.63203.91

    125.5651.59205.32

    127.4351.53206.73

    129.2951.5207.78

    131.2551.49208.7

    133.2251.44209.6

    15.72.86.7

    15.72.97.3

    15.32.97.6

    142.810

    13.42.711.6

    13.42.713.5

    13.62.715.3

    13.72.816.9

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    7.765.1475

    8.172.5233333333

    5.697.075

    -7.961.4433333333

    , %

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    00000

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    2006

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    200542680.6433882.8217105325.82

    200746629.69404802559.959100.21

    200847392.7544728.513403.5211690.2

    200946380.9140874.643677.868693.8

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    20070.1626383490.10600657340.25341824910.3116361945

    20080.1585655740.10500647070.25033129190.2972149734

    20090.15431585630.10312494420.24885911610.3010908312

    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2001.html?countryName=Japan&countryCode=ja&regionCode=easjatrillion dollars

    2005

    200714.522.9177.3572.17

    200814.522.9558.0192.291

    200914.142.818.7482.11

    2010

    Primary energy: Consumption *BP stat rew 2010Million tonnes oil equivalent

    2005

    20072361.5309.21864.4676.3

    20082302.4310.32007.4680.9

    20092182.0289.82177.0635.3

    2010

    200520062007200820091 2010200520062007200820091 2010

    3.453.533.613.593.621.843.453.533.613.593.621.84

    10.5210.5611.5312.1110.665.251.521.621.681.741.730.89

    1.841.821.881.641.810.9

    200520062007200820091 201010.5210.5611.5312.1110.665.25

    1.521.621.681.741.730.892.382.72.82.892.581.32

    2.382.72.82.892.581.328.037.958.838.967.93.83

    200520062007200820091 2010

    1.841.821.881.641.810.9

    8.037.958.838.967.93.83

    200520062007200820091 2010

    580.1595.2592.0601.7527.5

    45.850.763.277.089.3

    200520062007200820091 2010200520062007200820091 2010

    400.3408.5422.1416.0389.7580.1595.2592.0601.7527.5

    18.719.619.720.221.1400.3408.5422.1416.0389.7

    292.2052430705297.1938088933295.821953292303.5542303174258.9813946907

    200020012002200320042005200620072008200945.850.763.277.089.3

    200520062007200820091 201017.50986603820.01662036422.934931370323.932644534930.105994740633.797533449538.773627857754.238181908470.813939172718.719.619.720.221.1

    292.2052430705297.1938088933295.821953292303.5542303174258.9813946907266.8882715198256.1628550008258.0335671843269.2578402856270.3802675958292.2052430705297.1938088933295.821953292303.5542303174258.981394690733.797533449538.773627857754.238181908470.8139391727

    33.797533449538.773627857754.238181908470.8139391727

    207263,4202843,5191892,7195387,7168364,9

    207.2634202.8435191.8927195.3877168.3649

    , . . . .

    200520062007200820092010, . .

    649.3666.5676.3680.9635.3200520062007200820092010

    2342.22323.12361.52302.42182.0143.5142.8142.2142141.391140.367

    1771.31774.41739.81724.01622.6296.115298.93301.903304.718307.374310.252

    1572.21724.21864.42007.42177.082.582.4482.3182.228281.8

    1307.561314.481321.291328.021334.741341.414

    , . .

    200520062007200820092010

    143.5142.8142.2142141.391140.367

    296.115298.93301.903304.718307.374310.252

    489.474491.44493.589496.043497.623498.949

    1307.561314.481321.291328.021334.741341.414 . .

    121.9127.1126.3131.6124.9

    951.4943.8942.3888.5842.9

    122.4123.6112.5118.9113.9

    20052006200720082009327.8347.7364.4380.3404.6

    4.524.674.764.804.4920052006200720082009

    7.917.777.827.567.100.850.890.890.930.88

    3.623.613.523.483.263.213.163.122.922.74

    1.201.311.411.511.63 ()1.481.501.371.451.39

    0.250.260.280.290.30

    ( )16.217.5

    6.36.1

    1.41.6

    11.0

    75.173.8

    24.926.2

    2009 .

    ( )17.546.535.1

    ( )6.113.15.6

    1.60.21.3

    1.02.60.4

    26.262.342.420082009

    , 73.837.757.6 ( )16.217.5

    ( )6.36.1

    ( )17.546.535.11.41.6

    ( )6.113.15.6 1.01.0

    1.60.21.3 75.126.2

    1.02.60.4, 73.8

    26.262.342.4

    73.837.757.6

    2008 .

    ( )16.251.540.0

    ( )6.314.86.6

    1.40.21.3

    1.01.70.4

    75.131.851.7

    ( )16.251.540.0

    ( )6.314.86.6

    1.40.21.3

    1.01.70.4

    24.968.248.3

    75.131.851.7

    Brent, ./ WTI, ./ Brent, ./ () ( ), ./. ()

    200028.6630.38200028.661546

    200124.4625.98200124.461504

    200224.9926.1876.17200224.991929

    200328.8531.0873.75200328.852065

    200438.2641.5178.83200438.263426

    200554.5756.6484.82200554.574812

    200665.1666.0575.95200665.164434

    200772.4472.3474.76200772.447075

    200896.9499.6775.58200896.943377

    200961.7461.9577.04200961.746633

    201055.3687577.1125201055.368756915.9

    - 2010

    , Henry Hub, NBP, TTF, Zeebrugge, Japan Average

    2005463.5513.2285.2508.7233.7

    2006244.0216.0226.5218.2256.9

    2007252.8366.1351.4368.1312.4

    2008206.7304.2304.8302.4477.5

    2009189.7185.9177.7181.5349.3

    2010

    http://www.gks.ru/wps/portal/OSI_C# ( ), ./

    ( ), ./

    20001546

    20011504

    20021929

    20032065

    20043426

    20054812

    20064434

    20077075

    20083377

    20096633

    20106915.9

    2010

    ./ . . .

    ()

    200086.7

    2001142

    2002186

    2003129

    2004275

    2005330

    2006378

    2007431

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    2009510

    2010712.16

    2010

    ( ), ./. , ./. , ./. ( )

    20005612520922441546

    20014566477714201504

    20025363488721021929

    20036976631219452065

    200492441011019273426

    200591591200041084812

    2006109651121839174434

    2007142681700067897075

    200889631018036733377

    2009138311193875846633

    2010165381306075686915.9

    2010

    . EIA 2010

    http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/graphic_data_liquidfuels.html

    200959.2159.2159.21

    201070.3070.3070.30

    201173.0657.8483.89

    201279.4154.88100.40

    201385.7453.86115.55

    201490.9152.79132.86

    201594.5251.59144.78

    201698.2351.73156.35

    2017101.2351.78166.97

    2018104.4151.82175.39

    2019106.4751.91181.21

    2020108.2851.86185.63

    2021109.5251.83188.38

    2022110.9251.82190.68

    2023112.3251.80192.76

    2024113.6351.76194.06

    2025115.0951.73196.01

    2026116.6151.71197.59

    2027118.3251.71198.81

    2028120.1351.66200.45

    2029122.0451.62202.29

    2030123.5051.63203.91

    2031125.5651.59205.32

    2032127.4351.53206.73

    2033129.2951.50207.78

    2034131.2551.49208.70

    2035133.2251.44209.60

    , , .

    , , . /

    20052006200720152020202520302035

    15.715.715.314.013.413.413.613.7

    2.82.92.92.82.72.72.72.8

    6.77.37.610.011.613.515.316.9

    (, ) 2020. .

    , . .

    20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

    1254254254254254254254254254254254

    2269271272273273275277279281283280

    3269271272273273275274273272271270

    , . .

    20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

    1218222228232236243250257262270280

    2223234246258270303309318322325335

    3223234246258270283286290294296305

    , .

    20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

    110710610410310210110098979694

    2112111111111112112110110110109114

    3112111111111112112111110110109109

    , .. ( 2020.)

    1994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009

    , . 65530,779869,18762986626,67260172885,2103070,399969,5105760,8133656181663241244301244351930467581301652

    200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102010

    , %105.14.77.37.26.47.78.15.6-7.944

    Brent, ./.28.424.525.029.038.254.365.172.597.161.477.2

    Brent (DTD)

    2000154025.36

    2000156027.9028.4

    2000169027.4024.5

    2000158022.7925.0

    2000166527.7829.0

    2000154829.6638.2

    2000164528.6454.3

    2000173730.1465.1

    2000170332.8972.5

    2000200530.8397.1

    2000201432.5961.4

    2000203225.1028.4

    2001201425.66

    2001203227.58

    2001205024.44

    2001206425.66

    2001198228.51

    2001215627.77

    2001217024.58

    2001224425.74

    2001235525.57

    2001216620.49

    2001220118.96

    2001226718.6224.5

    2002219519.48

    2002215420.19

    2002202023.72

    200297525.66

    2002110025.32

    2002152524.10

    2002211525.81

    2002345026.66

    2002355028.38

    2002355027.58

    2002405024.03

    2002410028.6725.0

    2003270031.32

    2003126534.67

    2003102530.54

    2003112524.85

    2003112525.72

    2003141227.51

    2003145028.35

    2003130029.79

    2003205027.08

    2003335029.65

    2003315028.73

    2003410029.8729.0

    2004350031.55

    2004315030.83

    2004370033.77

    2004370033.25

    2004345037.80

    2004350035.05

    2004342538.21

    2004395043.04

    2004460043.26

    2004475049.64

    2004445042.84

    2004585039.5438.2

    2005505044.23

    2005570045.37

    2005380052.91

    2005252551.80

    2005417548.56

    2005470054.41

    2005580057.63

    2005610063.05

    2005615062.91

    2005645058.61

    2005770055.30

    2005870056.9154.3

    2006760062.76

    2006705060.11

    2006575061.98

    2006570070.35

    2006770069.94

    2006800068.69

    2006700073.66

    2006795073.22

    2006770061.76

    2006775057.84

    2006830058.45

    2006760063.0165.1

    2007585053.68

    2007430057.43

    2007515062.15

    2007620067.44

    2007797567.46

    2007732571.54

    2007795077.01

    2007830070.83

    2007705076.87

    2007750082.50

    2007830092.61

    2007964090.7672.5

    2008935091.97

    2008746094.97

    20088425103.71

    20089100108.92

    20089300122.73

    200811500132.43

    200813225133.59

    200811500113.03

    2008690098.13

    2008560072.37

    2008430052.51

    2008300040.5497.1

    2009582043.59

    2009563843.07

    2009692546.56

    2009785250.33

    2009914357.48

    20091189868.55

    2009927864.36

    20091009472.82

    2009790567.39

    2009780472.75

    2009877376.65

    2009742973.7761.4

    1

    42680.6433882.8217105325.82

    46629.69404802559.959100.21

    47392.7544728.513403.5211690.2

    46380.9140874.643677.868693.8

    47701.8140678.663999.4110740.34

    2

    42680.6446629.6947392.7546380.9147701.81

    33882.824048044728.5140874.6440678.66

    17102559.953403.523677.863999.41

    5325.829100.2111690.28693.810740.34

    2005

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    3

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    Brent, ./

    ( ), ./

    ()

    ( ), ./.

    , ./.

    , ./.

    ( )

    , Henry Hub

    , NBP

    , TTF

    , Zeebrugge

    , Japan Average

    &A

    Page &P

    Brent, ./ ()

    ( ), ./. ()

    0.1626383490.1585655740.1543158563

    0.10600657340.10500647070.1031249442

    0.25341824910.25033129190.2488591161

    0.31163619450.29721497340.3010908312

    2007

    2008

    2009

    3.45143521.521.8410.5201632.388.03

    3.530881.621.8210.5614772.77.95

    3.60885361.681.8811.5273892.88.83

    3.58899241.741.6412.1072792.898.96

    3.62062321.731.8110.6633312.587.9

    &A

    Page &P

    1

    2

    3

    1

    2

    3

    1

    2

    3

    , %

    Brent, ./.

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    6

    17.5

    6.1

    1.6

    1

    73.8

    1

    http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php

    200542680.6433882.8217105325.82

    200746629.69404802559.959100.21

    200847392.7544728.513403.5211690.2

    200946380.9140874.643677.868693.8

    201047701.8140678.663999.4110740.34

    1 .../1 . .

    20070.1626383490.10600657340.25341824910.3116361945

    20080.1585655740.10500647070.25033129190.2972149734

    20090.15431585630.10312494420.24885911610.3010908312

    https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2001.html?countryName=Japan&countryCode=ja&regionCode=easjatrillion dollars

    2005

    200714.522.9177.3572.17

    200814.522.9558.0192.291

    200914.142.818.7482.11

    2010

    Primary energy: Consumption *BP stat rew 2010Million tonnes oil equivalent

    2005

    20072361.5309.21864.4676.3

    20082302.4310.32007.4680.9

    20092182.0289.82177.0635.3

    2010

    200520062007200820091 2010200520062007200820091 2010

    3.453.533.613.593.621.843.453.533.613.593.621.84

    10.5210.5611.5312.1110.665.251.521.621.681.741.730.89

    1.841.821.881.641.810.9

    200520062007200820091 201010.5210.5611.5312.1110.665.25

    1.521.621.681.741.730.892.382.72.82.892.581.32

    2.382.72.82.892.581.328.037.958.838.967.93.83

    200520062007200820091 2010

    1.841.821.881.641.810.9

    8.037.958.838.967.93.83

    200520062007200820091 2010

    580.1595.2592.0601.7527.5

    45.850.763.277.089.3

    200520062007200820091 2010200520062007200820091 2010

    400.3408.5422.1416.0389.7580.1595.2592.0601.7527.5

    18.719.619.720.221.1400.3408.5422.1416.0389.7

    292.2052430705297.1938088933295.821953292303.5542303174258.9813946907

    200020012002200320042005200620072008200945.850.763.277.089.3

    200520062007200820091 201017.50986603820.01662036422.934931370323.932644534930.105994740633.797533449538.773627857754.238181908470.813939172718.719.619.720.221.1

    292.2052430705297.1938088933295.821953292303.5542303174258.9813946907266.8882715198256.1628550008258.0335671843269.2578402856270.3802675958292.2052430705297.1938088933295.821953292303.5542303174258.981394690733.797533449538.773627857754.238181908470.8139391727

    33.797533449538.773627857754.238181908470.8139391727

    207263,4202843,5191892,7195387,7168364,9

    207.2634202.8435191.8927195.3877168.3649

    , . . . .

    200520062007200820092010, . .

    649.3666.5676.3680.9635.3200520062007200820092010

    2342.22323.12361.52302.42182.0143.5142.8142.2142141.391140.367

    1771.31774.41739.81724.01622.6296.115298.93301.903304.718307.374310.252

    1572.21724.21864.42007.42177.082.582.4482.3182.228281.8

    1307.561314.481321.291328.021334.741341.414

    , . .

    200520062007200820092010

    143.5142.8142.2142141.391140.367

    296.115298.93301.903304.718307.374310.252

    489.474491.44493.589496.043497.623498.949

    1307.561314.481321.291328.021334.741341.414 . .

    121.9127.1126.3131.6124.9

    951.4943.8942.3888.5842.9

    122.4123.6112.5118.9113.9

    20052006200720082009327.8347.7364.4380.3404.6

    4.524.674.764.804.4920052006200720082009

    7.917.777.827.567.100.850.890.890.930.88

    3.623.613.523.483.263.213.163.122.922.74

    1.201.311.411.511.63 ()1.481.501.371.451.39

    0.250.260.280.290.30

    ( )16.217.5

    6.36.1

    1.41.6

    11.0

    75.173.8

    24.926.2

    2009 .

    ( )17.546.535.1

    ( )6.113.15.6

    1.60.21.3

    1.02.60.4

    26.262.342.420082009

    , 73.837.757.6 ( )16.217.5

    ( )6.36.1

    ( )17.546.535.11.41.6

    ( )6.113.15.6 1.01.0

    1.60.21.3 75.126.2

    1.02.60.4, 73.8

    26.262.342.4

    73.837.757.6

    2008 .

    ( )16.251.540.0

    ( )6.314.86.6

    1.40.21.3

    1.01.70.4

    75.131.851.7

    ( )16.251.540.0

    ( )6.314.86.6

    1.40.21.3

    1.01.70.4

    24.968.248.3

    75.131.851.7

    Brent, ./ WTI, ./ Brent, ./ () ( ), ./. ()

    200028.6630.38200028.661546

    200124.4625.98200124.461504

    200224.9926.1876.17200224.991929

    200328.8531.0873.75200328.852065

    200438.2641.5178.83200438.263426

    200554.5756.6484.82200554.574812

    200665.1666.0575.95200665.164434

    200772.4472.3474.76200772.447075

    200896.9499.6775.58200896.943377

    200961.7461.9577.04200961.746633

    201055.3687577.1125201055.368756915.9

    - 2010

    , Henry Hub, NBP, TTF, Zeebrugge, Japan Average

    2005463.5513.2285.2508.7233.7

    2006244.0216.0226.5218.2256.9

    2007252.8366.1351.4368.1312.4

    2008206.7304.2304.8302.4477.5

    2009189.7185.9177.7181.5349.3

    2010

    http://www.gks.ru/wps/portal/OSI_C# ( ), ./

    ( ), ./

    20001546

    20011504

    20021929

    20032065

    20043426

    20054812

    20064434

    20077075

    20083377

    20096633

    20106915.9

    2010

    ./ . . .

    ()

    200086.7

    2001142

    2002186

    2003129

    2004275

    2005330

    2006378

    2007431

    2008533

    2009510

    2010712.16

    2010

    ( ), ./. , ./. , ./. ( )

    20005612520922441546

    20014566477714201504

    20025363488721021929

    20036976631219452065

    200492441011019273426

    200591591200041084812

    2006109651121839174434

    2007142681700067897075

    200889631018036733377

    2009138311193875846633

    2010165381306075686915.9

    2010

    . EIA 2010

    http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/graphic_data_liquidfuels.html

    200959.2159.2159.21

    201070.3070.3070.30

    201173.0657.8483.89

    201279.4154.88100.40

    201385.7453.86115.55

    201490.9152.79132.86

    201594.5251.59144.78

    201698.2351.73156.35

    2017101.2351.78166.97

    2018104.4151.82175.39

    2019106.4751.91181.21

    2020108.2851.86185.63

    2021109.5251.83188.38

    2022110.9251.82190.68

    2023112.3251.80192.76

    2024113.6351.76194.06

    2025115.0951.73196.01

    2026116.6151.71197.59

    2027118.3251.71198.81

    2028120.1351.66200.45

    2029122.0451.62202.29

    2030123.5051.63203.91

    2031125.5651.59205.32

    2032127.4351.53206.73

    2033129.2951.50207.78

    2034131.2551.49208.70

    2035133.2251.44209.60

    , , .

    , , . /

    20052006200720152020202520302035

    15.715.715.314.013.413.413.613.7

    2.82.92.92.82.72.72.72.8

    6.77.37.610.011.613.515.316.9

    (, ) 2020. .

    , . .

    20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

    1254254254254254254254254254254254

    2269271272273273275277279281283280

    3269271272273273275274273272271270

    , . .

    20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

    1218222228232236243250257262270280

    2223234246258270303309318322325335

    3223234246258270283286290294296305

    , .

    20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

    110710610410310210110098979694

    2112111111111112112110110110109114

    3112111111111112112111110110109109

    , .. ( 2020.)

    1994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009

    , . 65530,779869,18762986626,67260172885,2103070,399969,5105760,8133656181663241244301244351930467581301652

    200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102010

    , %105.14.77.37.26.47.78.15.6-7.944

    Brent, ./.28.424.525.029.038.254.365.172.597.161.477.2

    Brent (DTD)

    2000154025.36

    2000156027.9028.4

    2000169027.4024.5

    2000158022.7925.0

    2000166527.7829.0

    2000154829.6638.2

    2000164528.6454.3

    2000173730.1465.1

    2000170332.8972.5

    2000200530.8397.1

    2000201432.5961.4

    2000203225.1028.4

    2001201425.66

    2001203227.58

    2001205024.44

    2001206425.66

    2001198228.51

    2001215627.77

    2001217024.58

    2001224425.74

    2001235525.57

    2001216620.49

    2001220118.96

    2001226718.6224.5

    2002219519.48

    2002215420.19

    2002202023.72

    200297525.66

    2002110025.32

    2002152524.10

    2002211525.81

    2002345026.66

    2002355028.38

    2002355027.58

    2002405024.03

    2002410028.6725.0

    2003270031.32

    2003126534.67

    2003102530.54

    2003112524.85

    2003112525.72

    2003141227.51

    2003145028.35

    2003130029.79

    2003205027.08

    2003335029.65

    2003315028.73

    2003410029.8729.0

    2004350031.55

    2004315030.83

    2004370033.77

    2004370033.25

    2004345037.80

    2004350035.05

    2004342538.21

    2004395043.04

    2004460043.26

    2004475049.64

    2004445042.84

    2004585039.5438.2

    2005505044.23

    2005570045.37

    2005380052.91

    2005252551.80

    2005417548.56

    2005470054.41

    2005580057.63

    2005610063.05

    2005615062.91

    2005645058.61

    2005770055.30

    2005870056.9154.3

    2006760062.76

    2006705060.11

    2006575061.98

    2006570070.35

    2006770069.94

    2006800068.69

    2006700073.66

    2006795073.22

    2006770061.76

    2006775057.84

    2006830058.45

    2006760063.0165.1

    2007585053.68

    2007430057.43

    2007515062.15

    2007620067.44

    2007797567.46

    2007732571.54

    2007795077.01

    2007830070.83

    2007705076.87

    2007750082.50

    2007830092.61

    2007964090.7672.5

    2008935091.97

    2008746094.97

    20088425103.71

    20089100108.92

    20089300122.73

    200811500132.43

    200813225133.59

    200811500113.03

    2008690098.13

    2008560072.37

    2008430052.51

    2008300040.5497.1

    2009582043.59

    2009563843.07

    2009692546.56

    2009785250.33

    2009914357.48

    20091189868.55

    2009927864.36

    20091009472.82

    2009790567.39

    2009780472.75

    2009877376.65

    2009742973.7761.4

    1

    42680.6433882.8217105325.82

    46629.69404802559.959100.21

    47392.7544728.513403.5211690.2

    46380.9140874.643677.868693.8

    47701.8140678.663999.4110740.34

    2

    42680.6446629.6947392.7546380.9147701.81

    33882.824048044728.5140874.6440678.66

    17102559.953403.523677.863999.41

    5325.829100.2111690.28693.810740.34

    2005

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    3

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    Brent, ./

    ( ), ./

    ()

    ( ), ./.

    , ./.

    , ./.

    ( )

    , Henry Hub

    , NBP

    , TTF

    , Zeebrugge

    , Japan Average

    &A

    Page &P

    Brent, ./ ()

    ( ), ./. ()

    0.1626383490.1585655740.1543158563

    0.10600657340.10500647070.1031249442

    0.25341824910.25033129190.2488591161

    0.31163619450.29721497340.3010908312

    2007

    2008

    2009

    3.45143521.521.8410.5201632.388.03

    3.530881.621.8210.5614772.77.95

    3.60885361.681.8811.5273892.88.83

    3.58899241.741.6412.1072792.898.96

    3.62062321.731.8110.6633312.587.9

    &A

    Page &P

    1

    2

    3

    1

    2

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    2

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    , %

    Brent, ./.

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

  • *

    2

    15405354.13

    15605890.3875

    16905784.825

    15804811.53875

    16655865.0525

    15486261.9675

    16456046.62

    17376363.3075

    17036943.90125

    20056508.98375

    20146880.56375

    20325299.2375

    20145631.087

    20326052.431

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    20645631.087

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    21566094.1265

    21705394.081

    22445648.643

    23555611.3365

    21664496.5305

    22014160.772

    22674086.159

    21954581.696

    21544748.688

    20205578.944

    9756035.232

    11005955.264

    15255668.32

    21156070.512

    34506270.432

    35506674.976

    35506486.816

    40505651.856

    41006743.184

    27007206.732

    12657977.567

    10257027.254

    11255717.985

    11255918.172

    14126330.051

    14506523.335

    13006854.679

    20506231.108

    33506822.465

    31506610.773

    41006873.087

    35006814.8

    31506659.28

    37007294.32

    37007182

    34508164.8

    35007570.8

    34258253.36

    39509296.64

    46009344.16

    475010722.24

    44509253.44

    58508540.64

    50509394.452

    57009636.588

    380011238.084

    252511002.32

    417510314.144

    470011556.684

    580012240.612

    610013391.82

    615013362.084

    645012448.764

    770011745.72

    870012087.684

    760012788.919

    705012248.91525

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    795014920.4055

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    775011786.346

    830011910.64875

    760012839.86275

    585010298.508

    430011017.9455

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    620012938.364

    797512942.201

    732513724.949

    795014774.3685

    830013588.7355

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    750015827.625

    830017767.2285

    964017412.306

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    746017671.54275

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    910020267.289

    930022836.98475

    1150024641.91225

    1322524857.75925

    1150021032.05725

    690018259.53975

    560013466.24775

    43009770.79825

    30007543.4805

    582010288.32975

    563811551.374

    692512106.764

    785212668.061

    914313821.066

    1189815953.29875

    927815214.704

    1009417274.7245

    790515572.14425

    780416079.56875

    877316659.8775

    742916565.0535

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2000

    Brent Dtd

    ./

    1.1

    19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008

    12.2412.6412.7412.7612.9413.2813.3613.6114.0614.7115.1015.5015.8716.15

    8.568.848.918.929.059.299.349.529.8310.2910.5610.8411.10

    1.1

    0

    0

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    1.2

    BrentUrals

    200029.026.7

    200125.823.3

    200225.323.8

    200330.527.6

    200439.334.4

    200554.250.6

    200664.861.1

    200772.869.3

    200897.194.6

    1.2

    00

    00

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    Brent

    Urals

    , ./.

    2.1

    2000-2005 .

    2000 .2001 .2002 .2003 .2004 .2005 .2006 .2007 .2008 .*

    110.0105.1104.3107.3107.1106.4107.4108.1105.6

    104.7102.2102.6103.7105.1104.8105.4104.9103.7

    : , ,

    1.0505802631

    2.1

    00

    00

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    %

    2.2

    20002001200220032004200520062007

    10.05.14.37.37.16.47.48.1

    3.70.81.62.53.63.12.92.0

    3.82.42.12.83.31.82.93.0

    3.21.20.0-0.21.10.82.92.5

    3.91.91.01.12.51.92.22.2

    2.2

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    2.3

    ( )16.251.540.0

    ( )6.314.86.6

    1.40.21.3

    1.01.70.4

    75.131.851.7

    ( )16.251.540.0

    ( )6.314.86.6

    1.40.21.3

    1.01.70.4

    24.968.248.3

    75.131.851.7

    2.3

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    - 24,9%

    2.4

    00

    00

    00

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    0

    ( )

    - 68,1%

    2.5

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    - 48,3%

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    0

    0

    0

    0

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    - 24,9%

    2.7 ..

    00

    00

    00

    0

    0

    ( )

    - 68,1%

    2.8-2.10

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    - 48,3%

    3.1

    200020012002200320042005200620072008

    -100.0105.1110.0118.1126.6134.7144.6156.4165.2

    -2020110.0115.1119.8127.0133.9140.4148.4

    - 100.0101.6101.7103.7105.5105.6109.1110.4110.7

    -2020104.0106.0108.0110.0112.0113.5

    3.1

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

    0000

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    0000

    -

    -2020

    -

    -2020

    % 2000 .

    3.2

    200020012002200320042005200620072008

    - 100.096.792.487.883.378.475.670.866.9

    -202092.490.088.085.082.080.076.0

    - 100.096.492.688.684.680.978.474.271.3

    3.2

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    -

    -2020

    -

    % 2000 .

    3.3-3.4

    , 1990-2007 .

    1990199519972000200220042005200620072008

    DDP100.083.283.0100.0108.2119.9123.6131.0141.5149.1

    1990199519972000200220042005200620072008

    83.283.683.085.288.195.899.1103.6109.0114.9118.4125.5135.5142.7912861858

    74.771.773.267.569.570.371.471.572.974.276.677.677.7

    62.259.960.857.561.267.370.874.179.585.290.797.4105.3

    200020072008

    1990199519972000200220042005200620072008

    DDP100.083.283.095.8103.6114.9118.4125.5135.5142.8

    100.0108.2119.9123.6131.0141.5149.1

    3.3-3.4

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    DDP

    % 2000 .

    135,3

    3.6

    19901995 1996 1998 2000

    100117.6120.3118.5113.9

    10073.172.268.373.2

    10062.260.057.764.3

    1995 1996 1997 1999

    100

    ( ) 100

    100

    100

    ( ) 100

    9.4

    15.8

    20

    18.7

    7

    14.3

    14.8

    9.1

    19.9

    18.6

    19.1

    6.4

    12.6

    14.3

    307.33

    14.444.3

    38.3117.597

    5.115.6

    6.118.748

    32.7100.465

    3.510.62

    100.0

    10076.44.72141990

    74.881.2111001995

    70.584.68.474.81996

    63.385.413.770.51997

    6787.21263.31998

    80.587.212671999

    80.52000

    1995199619971999

    76.481.284.686.3

    18.97.970.8

    4.710.98.412.9

    89.086.383.4

    165.928199719981999

    1.56828.3683.623.782.3

    0.00062.97975.347.4106.6

    0.091.33977.971.198.5

    %0.0 % %

    199719981999

    , 33.027.617.7

    , 96.873.582.6

    , %10077.90.0

    129.8106.6165.9

    , %1.0551.568

    1.0551.65424

    1997 .129.8101.1100.3

    19901995199619982000

    39.157.160.155.271.9

    32.441.942.836.761.5

    6.715.217.318.510.4

    199019951998200520152020

    100117.6118.51037867

    986454

    1998200020052015

    100112.1140245

    10098.8104.9117

    100106.6107.9114

    100111.2129.31601.0484376773

    100105.9123164

    100103.4109.7121

    19901995199619982000

    10062.260.057.764.6

    10049.747.746.154.4

    %

    1990199520002002200420052006200720087063.4

    , ../.8.66.46.16.36.56.76.87.07.14506.378.3459091067

    , . -/.7.35.75.96.16.46.66.97.17.21245.521.6540908933

    10074.470.972.876.377.979.181.482.55751.8

    10078.081.283.488.790.494.597.398.7

    2000200220042005200620072008

    , ../.6.26.26.56.66.87.07.0

    , . -/.6.06.26.46.66.97.17.2

    , % 2000 .100.0100.7105.9106.8110.9112.6112.8

    , % 2000 .100.0103.3108.0110.4115.7119.2120.9

    2000200220042005200620072008

    , ../.6.26.26.56.66.87.07.0

    , . -/.6.06.26.46.66.97.17.2

    893.9887.3940.4943.1973.7987.2988.2.

    862.3878.3924.9940.89801002.51019.8.

    144.8142.8143.8143.1142.2142141.9

    . 100.7105.2100.8103.9101.5100.2

    2000 .100.0100.7105.9106.8110.9112.6112.8

    . 103.3104.6102.2104.8103.0101.4

    2000 .100.0103.3108.0110.4115.7119.2120.9

    3.6

    0000

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    , % 2000 .

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    , % 2000 .

    .. . - .

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    4.1

    2008

    38.942.711.86.30.3100.0

    18.853.915.810.90.7100.1

    63.227.68.30.90.0100.0

    4.1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    4.7 ( )

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    4.8

    0

    0

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    . 1718.3

    115.0916.3

    28.148.8

    312.713.775.83

    1+239.943.0

    92.83100.0

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    1+210.813.4

    312.715.8

    1+239.949.6

    80.499.9

    1718.3

    35.9338.7

    39.943.0

    92.83100.0

    4.9

    0

    0

    0

    4.10

    1/1/08

    . 16.066.8

    14820.4

    219.78.4

    329.812.7

    1+2121.551.7

    235.06100.0

    4.10

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    1+2 - 51,7%

    3 - 12,7%

    2 - 8,4%

    1 - 20,4%

    . - 6,8%

    4.11

    12.032.0

    -54.641.6

    -4.51.0

    -12.92.4

    0.43.1

    -2.71.2

    12.418.0

    0.50.7

    4.11

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    4.12

    ++1 2 ++1+2%

    5115.466.424.424.4

    -79.638.7118.343.4-43.4

    7.64.612.24.54.5

    7.30.4557.7552.82.8

    6.539.53.53.5

    50.355.352.02.0

    -4.562.87.362.7-2.7

    3.30.4533.7531.41.4

    28.4413.54241.98215.415.4

    , 193.379.3272.6100.0

    4.12

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    4.13 20087 .

    - ( ), 2001-2007 ., . .

    20012002200320042005200620072008

    0.81.52.22.14.56.89.210.1

    15.410.53.52.017.319.625.326.0

    31.832.044.246.642.072.8107.4130.0

    48.044.049.950.763.899.2141.9166.1

    4.13 20087 .

    0000

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    . .

    4.14

    200020012002200320042005

    - 100105.1110118126.6134.7

    -2020100110115.1119.8127

    () - 100103.4107114.2120.8121.9

    () -2020100114.2116.2118.8

    - 100101.3101.5103.5105.7108.2

    -2020100103.5105.5106.2

    200020012002200320042005

    - 10096.492.287.683.478.9

    -202010092.289.98885

    200020012002200320042005

    - 548572623696768794

    -2020623690696711

    - 26.62323.725.534.450.8

    -202025.52222.5

    200020012002200320042005

    - 18.117.517.417.116.416.7

    -202018.119.219191919

    - 5050.851.752.452.752.5

    -20205050.250.650.349.849.4

    20042005

    0.650.56

    0.790.86

    0.810.58

    1.021.44

    1.511.45

    0.8440.85

    2000200120022003200420052006

    - ( )1418146515161619169917291772.5

    -20201516159116191656

    , - 323348380421460470480.5

    -2020421432448

    , . - 584581595620633641656.2

    -2020595601608615

    , - 258270256275282298309.4

    -2020275274280

    200020012002200320042005200620072008

    100.0103.3106.9114.1119.8122.9125.3126.3127.1

    100.0107.6117.3130.3142.0145.4148.7151.8150.7

    100.099.5101.9106.2108.3109.7112.4111.5113.6

    100.0104.599.0106.7109.2115.8120.0121.8126.2

    4.14

    0000

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    % 2000 .

    4.15

    , 2006 .

    2006

    " ""2195.0

    ""2178.8

    "- "1224.2

    " "953.0

    ""808.7

    ""707.9

    " ""370.8

    " ""309.9

    " ""297.3

    4.15

    0

    0

    0

    0

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    0

    .

    4.16 .

    / 1991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720081991-20072000-2007

    , . -461.1-400.8-354.6-317.8-306.8-301.2-305.6-303.3-305.2-323.5-348.0-379.6-421.4-459.3-470.0-480.5-490.8-488.5-6429.53373.1

    , . 836.0477.0392.0216.0148.0180.0283.0193.0208.0294.0250.0260.0250.0254.0285.0635.7520.6580.02749.33872.02759.01546.0

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    2.01.41.30.70.60.70.80.80.80.90.90.70.90.50.60.70.80.80.7

    4.16 .

    000

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    4.17

    2000200120022003200420052006200720082009

    , . 323.5348.0379.6421.3459.3470.2480.5490.9488.0493.9

    % 106.0107.6109.1111.0109.0102.4102.3102.199.4101.2

    ! ( 100%)

    4.17

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    ,2000 .2001 .2002 .2003 .2004 .2005 .2006 .2007 .2006 . 2001 .

    + %

    323,5348,1379,6421,3459,3470,2480,5491,3167.8151.9102.2

    :00.00.0

    276,1301,6335,6382,7421,0432,5439,5440,8164.7159.7100.3

    57,762,975,278,984,187,891,191,433.7158.4100.3

    13,414,916,119,621,674,485,7110,497823.9128.8

    *49,658,164,880,485,724,521,5-I270.00.0

    17,220,625,431,434,033,032,732,715.5190.1100.0

    40,644,049,254,059,663,965,664,523.9158.998.3

    -36,240,637,543,049,454,068,469,433.2191.7101.5

    **11,69,116,218,620,821,3--00.00.0

    13,614,914,618,122,024,223,320,97.3153.789.7

    24,324,624,624,725,125,325,425,71.4105.8101.2

    11,911,912,012,012,111,911,711,6-0.397.599.1

    ---2,06,612,214,814,200.095.9

    10,110,211,511,012,412,813,413,23.1130.798.5

    35,034,030,625,323,522,122,523,5-11.567.1104.4

    2,32,31,92,32,42,85,113,811.5600.0270.6

    113.823.323.3

    90.218.518.5

    - 68.814.114.120002001200220032004200520062007200820092009 20002009 20082009-2008

    61.712.612.7, 323.5348.1379.6421.3459.3470.2480.5491.3488.5494.2152.8101.2

    30.76.36.3 :0.00.0

    26.15.35.4 276.1301.6335.6382.7421432.5439.5440.8436.8438.1158.7100.31.3

    19.64.04.0 13.414.916.119.621.674.485.7110.4113.8116.3867.9102.22.5

    14.22.92.9 57.762.975.278.984.187.891.191.490.292.2159.8102.22.0

    12.72.62.6 - 36.240.637.54349.45468.469.468.870.2193.9102.01.4

    11.72.42.4 40.64449.25459.663.965.664.561.759.6146.896.6-2.1

    487.699.8100.0 17.220.625.431.4343332.732.730.729.9173.897.4-0.8

    , 488.5100.0100.2 24.324.624.624.725.125.325.425.726.126.1107.4100.00.0

    13.614.914.618.12224.223.320.919.618.9139.096.4-0.7

    ---26.612.214.814.214.212.70.089.4-1.5

    11.911.9121212.111.911.711.611.712.2102.5104.30.5

    *49.658.164.880.485.724.521.5---0.00.00

    **11.69.116.218.620.821.3----0.00.00

    10.110.211.51112.412.813.413.212.712118.894.5-0.7

    353430.625.323.522.122.523.527.029.383.7108.52.3

    2.32.31.92.32.42.85.113.81214.8643.5123.32.8

    116.323.5

    92.218.7

    - 70.214.2

    59.612.1

    29.96.1

    26.15.3

    18.93.8

    14.83.0

    12.72.6

    12.22.5

    122.4

    29.35.9

    494.2

    4.18 ()

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

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    0

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    % , 2009 .

    4.19.

    2000 .2001 .2002 .2003 .2004 .2005 .2006 .2007.2008.2009.

    213.5231.3254.2283.2310320.3325.3323.7319.0311.1

    75.278.782.989.292.993.295.497.599.0102.2

    - 13.514.515.41821.624.525.927.329.133.5

    77.91114.617.614.314.413.714.318.7

    3.84.23.73.63.94.46.515.213.617.4

    10.611.612.312.713.313.513.613.312.611.0

    323.5348.1379.6421.3459.3470.2480.5490.8488.5493.9

    - 20092009

    19901995200020012002200320042005200620072008% 2009 2008

    516183306827323517348133379563421341459318470175480507490882488021101.2493.9

    -1696210306134571448715418180092158424513260402740429522

    113.533.533.5

    11976782310635115821232412768133071346913554133141261187.211.011.0

    10955978324751567867882989892499292293183955009735198840103.3102.2102.0

    36534220159221346923125325416528316931000232023732549332381431902997.5311.1311.0

    1031868747019793010997145741759914346133461377414385130.118.718.7

    2026190837814203367035723905442765731522613635

    127.417.417.4

    493.8

    2000200120022003200420052006200720082009

    323517348133379563421341459318470175480507490882488021493.9

    -13457144871541818009215842451326040274042952233.5

    10635115821232412768133071346913554133141261111.0

    751567867882989892499292293183955009735198840102.2

    213469231253254165283169310002320237325493323814319029311.1

    701979301099714574175991434613346137741438518.7

    3781420336703572390544276573152261363517.4

    . % . 2009/2000

    323.5348.1379.6421.3459.3470.2480.5490.9488.0493.9170.4100.0152.7

    -13.514.515.418.021.624.526.027.429.533.520.111.8249.0

    10.611.612.312.813.313.513.613.312.611.00.40.2103.4

    75.278.783.089.292.993.295.597.498.8102.227.015.9136.0

    213.5231.3254.2283.2310.0320.2325.5323.8319.0311.197.657.3145.7

    7.07.911.014.617.614.313.313.814.418.711.76.9266.6

    3.84.23.73.63.94.46.615.213.617.413.68.0459.4

    4.19.

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    .

    4.20

    2001200620022003200420052006200720082009

    28058257002853927731289892871429937301772932330424296763044830499279463111730127314233095832313328413222933553326123347233877310673450833497350933447036166365503583137109360053727337367.435120.837793.536928.838394.737925.039397.239670.638596.639822.138453.839543.639221.135658.739474.138068.839437.838573.739982.140151.239085.940513.739381.34062939926.036142.840374.139296.040714.539559.240938.941332.239776.441094.239990.341362.941558.437822.741841.239962.741432.540390.841729.741594.140364.041847.040217.441600.041375.738729.741274.339778.341231.139906.341345.041597.040253.741700.540050.941246.7

    905.10917.85920.60924.37935.12957.14965.70973.44977.44981.42989.20982.19983.84998.091003.761004.231013.641031.941042.341059.371074.291082.371087.071079.751092.821109.541113.171116.571132.041148.981166.641179.041194.361197.051200.171202.351205.401211.061219.151230.961238.541264.171270.881279.701286.551284.581281.791275.601265.201273.531273.361268.961272.191285.791289.751295.201302.861306.891312.711310.601287.941290.811302.391309.871313.371318.641320.611333.301325.881325.621333.011334.291340.591350.811349.721332.091336.531346.361346.121341.751345.471349.901340.581341.941334.701335.511331.431325.941330.041330.211333.711341.841341.791345.181335.031330.541333.91331.21337.01346.81345.71349.71352.41360.71370.11373.71375.31371.216247.70

    952.51038.41154.41254.01288.11316.31343.51334.661354.0

    2009

    41317.337266.841437.240383.041695.440470.141904.042157.241096.342579.541260.442507.9

    1332.821330.961336.681346.101345.011349.001351.741359.911369.881373.531375.351371.2216242.20

    1353.5

    4.20

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

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    00

    00

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    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

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    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

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    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

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    &A

    Page &P

    2001

    2003

    2005

    2004

    2002

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    .

    4.21 ()

    1333.91335.31340.6

    1331.21335.71350.8

    1337.01331.71349.7

    1346.81326.11332.1

    1345.71330.31336.5

    1349.71329.71346.4

    1352.41333.91346.1

    1360.71342.01341.7

    1370.11342.11345.5

    1373.71345.41349.9

    1375.31335.31340.6

    1371.21330.81341.9

    2009 .2008 .2007 .

    1332.81334.71340.6

    1331.01335.51350.8

    1336.71331.41349.7

    1346.11325.91332.1

    1345.01330.01336.5

    1349.01330.21346.4

    1351.71333.71346.1

    1359.91341.81341.7

    1369.91341.81345.5

    1373.51345.21349.9

    1375.31335.01340.6

    1371.21330.51341.9

    2009 .2008 .2007 .

    4.21 ()

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    &A

    Page &P

    2009 .

    2008 .

    4.22

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    2007 .

    2008 .

    2009 .

    4.23

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    2007 .

    2008 .

    2009 .

    4.24-4.25 -.

    . 4.2.4

    2000200120022003200420052006200720082009

    9493.68960.38302.28576.28412.79173.511582.613760.514602.714090.9

    1110.91260.4766.3680.5584.7635.2722.3870.9851.7464.4

    4.24-4.25 -.

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    &A

    Page &P

    ,

    ,

    4.26

    .4.2.5 , 2000-2005 .

    2000-20052001-20062002-20072003-20082004-2009

    33,967.0032,081.3022315.622191.431210.5

    20002001200220032004200520062007200820092401.92558.92701.82810.22388.9

    40694642389536063529380544324952559352311.41.30.80.81.3

    2000200120022003200420052006200720082009

    , . 323.5348.0379.6421.3459.3470.2480.5490.9488.00.0

    200920082009-2008

    5231-353558493.7

    . 4835-182501796.4

    854-329118372.2

    936102834112.2

    66049611108.0

    1131159972116.4

    51954465111.6

    300-4034088.2

    171-7524669.5

    189-1820791.3

    75-8415947.2

    200820092009-2008

    1584442535915875525857100.2102.0

    .. 1521622396415219424769100.0103.4

    280974133282374199100.5101.6

    29271561229035618499.2110.2

    55085485717728103.8132.8

    181241361185561250102.491.8

    - 21519629521230616498.797.9

    218043137219572942100.793.8

    19194179519041221399.2123.3

    4175517414948399.493.4

    4470566427260695.6107.1

    311

    498

    4.26

    4069

    4642

    3895

    3606

    3529

    3805

    4432

    4952

    5593

    5231

    , .

    4.27

    2000 .2001 .2002 .2003 .2004 .2005 .2006 .2007 .2008 .

    ,177444185371203140220867224027215476221150229297237039

    :

    2008 .%

    217403 " ""47596.320.1

    , 16083416900318588120626920821419756520285920967842131 ""42130.817.8

    :47596 "- "21052.28.9

    2559927678328373498036798370313784640506- ""200208.4

    63667089784992428919986595924713118418 " "18418.17.8

    125541335814068149301514714637163481652220020 ""17231.67.3

    181771912218159184202095019772193591972921052 " ""135005.7

    -1403813044145551708816316175451983319913- ""6981.52.9

    110871164812736137201356512857128761270513500"" ( )3369.51.4

    55595595523885677059647167836967698227103.411.4

    185401881318143186011670316966164521613217232217403.40.0

    261625342693308129093073314831983370

    125561538227255151441649419235251242687527102

    , ,

    898980458015412360337849101971160411275

    482355316179628261915776504751105074

    -272724382479279329663007304629043287

    165391601416673131981518916632182911961819636

    4805322.2

    4206319.541.7

    -197199.1

    - 195329.0

    183948.5

    177868.2

    136506.3

    99994.6

    72503.4

    46582.2

    40531.9

    29611.4

    25711.2

    18790.9

    11630.5

    24671.1

    4.27

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    %

    4.28

    . 4.2.9 , 2000-2005 .

    2000200120022003200420052006200720082009

    128.0138.2156.4191.0217.5214.0211.2222.6205.2210.992.289

    16.424.033.336.839.939.637.236.437.936.5104.111.0

    144.4162.1188.4223.5257.4252.4248.4258.4243.1247.494.1

    128137154.8186.4217.3214.4211.1221.1204.9210.992.7

    16.422.732.737.140.13837.337.338.236.5102.4

    144.4159.7187.5223.5257.4252.4248.4258.4243.1247.494.1

    144.4162.1188.4

    88.685.882.683.484.484.985.085.684.385.2

    246.0

    4.28

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    .

    4.29

    ( )

    " ""45.74,209.6048,975.60

    ""32.1 , 165191855132,891.1036,179.70

    "-BP "31.3 4155.345757.52,753.9032,881.40

    ""28.1 212028102.9-BP 2,440.9031,474.10

    ""14.8 3060.532081.3C264.55,257.50

    " "14.3 -BP 2986.8312721,101.9011,717.00

    " ""4.9 1192.514797.43704,380.20

    " ""3.4 1693379.1 1,101.4013,583.20

    0.8 1185.914255.9376.65,002.50

    0.2 436.64910.37.3455.6

    7.516.3187.7 74953.8

    183.1 6246,484.80

    197,345.40

    4.29

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    .

    4.30. . -

    Brent (DTD)rent\ Brent Dtd

    2000154025.36190.25354

    2000156027.90209.35890

    2000169027.40205.55785

    2000158022.79170.94812

    2000166527.78208.45865

    2000154829.66222.56262

    2000164528.64214.86047

    2000173730.14226.16363

    2000170332.89246.76944

    2000200530.83231.26509

    2000201432.59244.46881

    2000203225.10188.35299

    2001201425.66192.55631

    2001203227.58206.96052

    2001205024.44183.35363

    2001206425.66192.55631

    2001198228.51213.86257

    2001215627.77208.36094

    2001217024.58184.45394

    2001224425.74193.15649

    2001235525.57191.85611

    2001216620.49153.74497

    2001220118.96142.24161

    2001226718.62139.74086

    2002219519.48146.14582

    2002215420.19151.44749

    2002202023.72177.95579

    200297525.66192.56035

    2002110025.32189.95955

    2002152524.10180.85668

    2002211525.81193.66071

    2002345026.66200.06270

    2002355028.38212.96675

    2002355027.58206.96487

    2002405024.03180.25652

    2002410028.67215.06743

    2003270031.32234.97207

    2003126534.67260.07978

    2003102530.54229.17027

    2003112524.85186.45718

    2003112525.72192.95918

    2003141227.51206.36330

    2003145028.35212.66523

    2003130029.79223.46855

    2003205027.08203.16231

    2003335029.65222.46822

    2003315028.73215.56611

    2003410029.87224.06873

    2004350031.55236.66815

    2004315030.83231.26659

    2004370033.77253.37294

    2004370033.25249.47182

    2004345037.80283.58165

    2004350035.05262.97571

    2004342538.21286.68253

    2004395043.04322.89297

    2004460043.26324.59344

    2004475049.64372.310722

    2004445042.84321.39253

    2004585039.54296.68541

    2005505044.23331.79394

    2005570045.37340.39637

    2005380052.91396.811238

    2005252551.80388.511002

    2005417548.56364.210314

    2005470054.41408.111557

    2005580057.63432.212241

    2005610063.05472.913392

    2005615062.91471.813362

    2005645058.61439.612449

    2005770055.30414.811746

    2005870056.91426.812088

    2006760062.76470.712789

    2006705060.11450.812249

    2006575061.98464.912630

    2006570070.35527.614336

    2006770069.94524.614252

    2006800068.69515.213997

    2006700073.66552.515010

    2006795073.22549.214920

    2006770061.76463.212585

    2006775057.84433.811786

    2006830058.45438.411911

    2006760063.01472.61284010299

    2007585053.68402.61029911018

    2007430057.43430.71101811923

    2007515062.15466.11192312938

    2007620067.44505.81293812942

    2007797567.46506.01294213725

    2007732571.54536.61372514774

    2007795077.01577.61477413589

    2007830070.83531.21358914748

    2007705076.87576.51474815828

    2007750082.50618.81582817767

    2007830092.61694.61776717412

    2007964090.76680.717412

    2008935091.97689.817113

    2008746094.97712.317672

    20088425103.71777.819298

    20089100108.92816.920267

    20089300122.73920.522837

    200811500132.43993.224642

    200813225133.591001.924858

    200811500113.03847.721032

    2008690098.13736.018260

    2008560072.37542.813466

    2008430052.51393.89771

    2008300040.54304.17543

    2009582043.59326.91028831.47

    2009563843.07323.01155135.76

    2009692546.56349.21210734.6731.4735.7634.6733.5632.0631.0331.5231.6330.8129.4728.9829.94380.931.74

    2009785250.33377.51266833.5633.9232.231.3229.46126.931.73

    2009914357.48431.11382132.06

    20091189868.55514.11595331.03

    2009927864.36482.71521531.52

    20091009472.82546.21727531.63

    2009790567.39505.41557230.81

    2009780472.75545.61608029.47

    2009877376.65574.91666028.98

    2009742973.77553.31656529.94

    2009 . - -

    31.73

    4.30. . -

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2000

    Brent Dtd

    ./

    4.31

    2000 .2001 .2002 .2003 .2004 .2005 .2006 .2007 .2008 .

    , 173.8178.4185.1190.1195207.7219.5228.5235.6

    :

    167.2169.6176.2179.4184.8197209.2219.2224.395.2

    " ""7.17.78.49.59.310.51148.849.120.8

    ""25.828.833.734.135.33739.442.543.918.6

    "-BP "15.914.614.114.314.717.42221.921.59.1

    ""16.015.814.815.215.818.320.219.820.58.7

    19.420.319.419.218.319.219.119.220.48.7

    " "12.613.313.313.814.314.516.316.518.47.8

    " ""10.811.411.811.712.412.812.812.713.55.7

    9.39.89.19.59.49.39.7109.84.2

    ( )------7.47.57.73.3

    " ""-----5.67.17.47.53.2

    ""5.365.86.26.37.16.86.86.42.7

    "" ( )2.62.52.732.93.13.13.23.31.4

    ----0.91.42.52.72.51.1

    ""*5.65.65.16.16.46.60.20.20.0

    " ""**29.428.830.930.731.632.234.3--0.0

    ***3.73.84.64.65.55.7---0.0

    ****1.21.31.11.51.6----0.0

    5.05.26.76.76.46.35.86.152.1

    -4.33.62.23.83.84.44.43.26.32.7

    " ""20.8

    ""18.6

    "-BP "9.1

    ""8.7

    ""8.7

    " "7.8

    " ""5.7

    4.2

    ( )3.3

    " ""3.2

    ""2.7

    4.31

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    %

    4.36 (2)

    , 2008 .

    20072008

    94.997.141.0102.3

    37.238.116.1102.4

    32.635.214.9108.0

    - 23.924.310.3101.7

    22.724.010.1105.7

    10.911.34.8103.7

    6.26.32.7101.6

    228.4236.3103.5

    4.36 (2)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    .

    4.38

    , 12

    + / - 2006.+ / - 2006.2007 .% 2007. 2006. % 2007 .% % 2007 .% % 2007 .%

    6.296.917.415.4102.122.416.2101.925.56.415.0815.9

    - 39.5-11.30471.299.1 5.4108.915.211.9104.617.310.395.716.14.9611.4110.72

    - 25.48.40.80.3269.7102.7 ( )0.3100.01.00.6120.80.91.2105.12.00.340.531.18

    86-18.12.8-0.61,046.4095.7 3.6103.410.26.1115.08.83.1116.94.83.495.262.61

    92-12.73-0.41,091.70104.8 2.3104.56.55.0103.47.36.7104.710.62.24.856.44

    100.7-19.83.2-0.61,070.7097.5 2.399.66.44.2108.96.04.4109.06.92.293.814.01

    113.428.83.70.91,129.90100.4 0.785.72.02.294.03.21.397.02.00.842.331.34

    116.216.93.70.51,272.0091.9 - 0.6129.21.71.9114.92.81.993.63.00.481.682.03

    ()163.2-185.3-0.62,233.40105.7 0.00.00.00.00.00.00.070.10

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    -124.46.540.21,402.1095.8 - 2007 - 2007 - 2007

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