기후모델 : 기후변화연구의 인프라Climate Model: Infrastructure for

Climate Change Research

Wonsun ParkLeibniz Institute of Marine Sciences

Kiel, Germany

KOFST Ultra Program (Environment and Energy)EU-Korea Conference on Science and Technology 2010

Vienna, Austria, 30 July 2010

Future climate projectionswith climate models

IPCC 2007

Contents

• Climate Modelling– Earth/Climate System– Climate model development– European Infrastructure– Kiel example

• Uncertainty in climate projection

Climate modelling

Earth/Climate system

Climate Model

Earth system modelling

Atmosphere:•MPI-M (ECHAM)•MétéoFrance (ARPEGE)•IPSL (LMDZ)•MetOffice (Unified Model)•UREADMY•INGV

Atmospheric Chemistry:•MPI-M•UREADMY•IPSL•MetOffice•MétéoFrance•KNMI

Land Surface •IPSL (Orchidée)•MetOffice•MPI-M•UREADMY •MétéoFrance (ISBA)

Sea Ice:•NERSC•UCL-ASTR•MetOffice•IPSL•MPI-M

Ocean Biogeochemistry:• MPI-BGC• IPSL• MPGIMET• MetOffice

Ocean: • MetOffice (FOAM)• MPI-M (HOPE)• IPSL (OPA/ORCA)• UREADMY

Regional Climate:•SHMI•DMI•MetOffice

CouplerCERFACS

European Earth System ModellingDeveloping Infrastructure (EU FP5 example, currently FP7 IS-ENES)

Modeling the past, present, and future climate(An Oceanographic Institute Example)

Tropical Pacific Climatein the Kiel Climate Model

Park et al., 2009 J. Clim.

Ocean is an important player

High Resolution (ORCA025, ORCA12)

Coarse Resolution (ORCA2, ORCA05)

High-Res. Nest (1/10° Agulhas)

Figures show snapshots of near-surface speed

version i x j x k

ORCA2 2° 182 x 149 x 31

ORCA05 1/2° 722 x 511 x 46

ORCA025 1/4° 1442 x 1021 x 46

ORCA12 1/12° 4322 x 3059 x 46

Courtesy Arne Biastoch

Climate Model Development Prerequisites

1. Scientific question or Societies’ needs is an important factor when considering specific model configurations: model resolutions, level of Earth system components, downscaling (refinement), etc.

2. Large community is advantageous: International cooperation

3. Climate model is a national/institutional infrastructure: Long-term investigation

Total annualPrecipitation

REMO 1/2 ° (1979-93) REMO 1/6 ° (1979-88)

Observations (1971-90)

© D. Jacob, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

Regional scale becomes more important

REMO-YES REMO-YS REMO-ESGrids 1/2, 61x73 1/6, 81x121 1/6, 91x129

North Pole (52.5N, 50.0W) (52.5N, 50.0W) (52.5N, 50.0W)

Lower-left (-15.0, -17.0) (-11.0, -14.0) (-5.0, -5.0)

ES

YS

ECS

Yellow Sea

East SeaEast China Sea

Application to Korea

Boundary condition from Reanalysis or Model

Climate Model Development Prerequisites

1. Scientific question or Societies’ needs is an important factor when considering specific model configurations: model resolutions, level of Earth system components, downscaling (refinement), etc.

2. Large community is advantageous: International cooperation

3. Climate model is a national/institutional infrastructure: Long-term investigation

Climate Model Infrastructure

1. Hardware: Super Computer + Maintenance2. Software: Models + Pre/postprocessing3. Human Resource: Scientific Brilliance + High

performance computing techniques

• Efficient use of limited resources becomes more important

• Determination can be done by societies’ need (Natural+Socioeconomic communities feedbacks)

• International example: CMIP-IPCC-UNFCCC

Building a new climate model:Easy or not?

• Component models– Atmosphere General Circulation, Ocean

General Circulation, Sea ice, Atmosphere Chemistry, Ocean Biogeochemistry, Land Vegetation, Ice sheet, etc.

• Coupling – Grid interpolation, time control,

communication between models

• Technical and physical interfaces• Development and Tuning (better

parameterizations)

IPCC Assessment Reports(CMIP: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)

• IPCC (2007) AR4 23 models– Asia/Pacific (6), Europe (9), North America (9)

(Korea/Germany co-contribution)

• IPCC (2013) AR5 – WG1 The Physical Science Basis Schedule

• Nov 2011 zero-order paper preparation• Jul 2012 Paper must be submitted• Mar 2013 Paper must be published/accepted

– Tentative models (33 as of Jun 2010: Australia 2, China 4, Japan 8, Korea/UK 1, France 3, Germany 1, Norway 1, Russia 1, UK 4, Canada 1, USA 7) + more

Uncertainty in Climate Projection

Past 20th century Natural + Anthropogenic forcings

Natural forcing only

Weather Forecast vs. Weather Forecast vs. Climate PredictionClimate Prediction

Weather forecasting limited to 14 days

[Lorenz 1963]

Climate prediction: Role of external forcing on the atmosphere

Initial value problem vs. Boundary value problem

Decadal Prediction(Mixed Initial and Boundary value problem)

Keenyside et al. 2008

Climate projection uncertainty

internal variability

scenario

model bias

Hawkins and Sutton 2009

Conclusions• Current generation of climate models

represents partly well the past and present climates, but the models are not complete yet.

• Climate models still need to be improved. Also, we need a suitable climate observing system.

• Climate models are national/institutional infrastructures (hardware, software, expert).

• Global climate change is real. But, level of Internal (Natural) and External (Anthropogenic) contribution is still an issue.