統合評価モデル DNE21 の概要

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  • - 1 -

    DNE21

    1

    1-1

    1.1

  • - 2 -

    DNE21 LDNE

    DNE21 LDNE

    2100

    1.2 DNE21

    DNE21 LDNE

    3 1-1

    2100

    CO2

    3

    1-1

  • - 3 -

    1-2

    1-2

    DNE21

    1-1 DNE21

    3 DNE21

    10 GDP

    LDNE 10

    50*

    CO2

    * CO254158

  • - 4 -

    1-2

  • - 5 -

    2 DNE21

    2.1 DNE21

    DNE21Dynamic New Earth 21

    DNE21

    DNE21

    DNE21 CO2

    CO2

    2-1 DNE21

    10 2-2 2100

    2100

    CO2

    100

    2010 2100

    CO2 2-3

    1

    8

    4

    CO2 7 10

    CO2

    4

    1 1

    2100 10

  • - 6 -

    2-1 DNE21

    M.East&N.AfricaC.P.E.Asia

    Japan

    W.Europe

    FUSSR&E.Europe

    N.America

    L.America

    Oceania

    AsiaOther

    S.S.Africa

    2-2 DNE21

  • - 7 -

    Natural Gas Splitting

    Coal Gasification

    Biomass Gasification

    Coal Liquefaction

    IGCC with CO Rec.2

    Biomass Liquefaction(Fermentation)

    Shift Reaction

    CO2 Recovery

    CO Liquefaction2

    CO Compression2

    CO Injection2

    Methane Synthesis

    Methanol Synthesis

    EORGas WellAquifer

    Ocean

    Methanol Synthesis

    CoalMethanolCO (pipeline)2 CO (tanker)2

    Water Electrolysis

    Water Electrolysis

    H Liquefaction2 Hydrogen (tanker)

    Methane (tanker)

    Synthetic. Oil

    Hydrogen (pipeline)

    Methane (pipeline)

    CH Liquefaction4

    Methanol Upgrading (into Gasoline)

    Oil Refinery(Distillation)

    Oil Refinery (Gasoline)

    Natural Gas

    Methane

    Crude Oil

    Synthetic Oil

    Oil

    Coal

    Coal

    Energy Crops

    Wind&O.R.E.

    Photovoltaics

    Nuclear

    H2

    CO

    CH4

    CO2

    CO2

    CH OH3

    Methanol

    Electricity

    CO Disposal2

    Hydrogen

    From Other Regions

    From Other Regions To Other Regions

    To Other Regions

    Hydro

    Geothermal

    Electricity

    Gaseous Fuel

    Light Fuel Oil

    Solid Fuel

    : Electricity Use

    Gasoline

    Heavy Fuel Oil

    Modern Fuel WoodsWood Residues

    Sawmill ResiduesTimber Scraps

    Cereal Harvest ResiduesSugarcane Harvest Resid.

    Bagasse

    Paper Scraps

    Black Liquor

    Kitchen Wastes

    Animal Wastes

    Human Feces

    Synthetic Oil

    Crude Oil

    SOx

    Syn.Oil

    Oil Refinery(Distillation)

    Oil Refinery (Gasoline)

    Biomass Liquefaction

    Biomass Gasification(Anaerobic Digestion)

    Crude Oil

    EthanolCoal Cleaning

    N.Gas power gen.

    Meth. power gen.

    Coal power gen.

    H power gen.2

    Biomasspower gen.

    Oil power gen.

    Oil power gen.

    Photov. power gen.

    Hydro power gen.Geoth. power gen.Nuclear power gen.

    Sorbent InjectionWet limestone scrub.Wellman-Lord

    Sorbent InjectionWet limestone scrub.Wellman-Lord

    SOx Rec. in End Use

    SOx Rec.in End Use

    2-3 DNE21 CO2

  • 2.2 DNE21

    2.2.1

    (1)

    2-1 Rogner1 2 ) 1992

    WEC1996 BPBritish Petroleum

    150Gtoe 1 1000

    2,600Gtoe 19 5000

    2-2

    WEC BP

    129Gtoe 5530

    20,000Gtoe

    Bundesansta l t fr Geowissenschaften RohstoffeBGR

    2-3

    IIASA WEC 1 3 ) 2-1 2-3

    2-4

    DNE21 2-4

    2-4

    DNE21

    30$/toe

    2-1 2-2

    VIIVIII

  • 2-1

    I II III IV V VI VII VIII 8.5 8.6 6.7 15.9 7.6 98.8 172.8 287.4 606 17.4 8.9 15.5 18.9 2.6 91.5 160.1 270.8 586 5.6 2.1 3.6 5.1 1.3 7.6 13.3 34.6 73 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.5 1.0 3.8 7 17.1 13.6 19.3 23.4 3.3 19.4 34.0 125.6 256 87.9 17.0 21.9 56.2 22.3 39.6 69.3 279.0 593 4.0 3.4 4.9 5.4 1.4 5.1 8.9 29.7 63 5.1 4.7 8.2 7.4 2.3 42.2 73.8 118.7 262 OECD 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 3.7 25.8 45.1 60.3 137 2.9 1.6 2.5 3.4 0.6 4.8 8.3 23.0 47 1.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.5 3.5 7 150 61 84 138 45 336 587 1237 2638 Gtoe 10 H-H. Rogner, 199712)

    2-2

    I II III IV V VI VII VIII 11.8 14.3 15.6 8.4 35 70 105 6100 6361 7.6 8.0 13.8 3.9 13 30 44 4571 4691 7.3 4.9 7.2 3.0 4 9 13 765 813 0.7 0.7 1.2 0.5 1 2 3 1 10 39.1 45.0 65.0 20.2 26 45 68 4208 4517 48.2 23.0 26.9 12.5 13 29 44 203 400 3.9 5.3 8.4 2.2 4 9 14 383 431 1.1 4.6 7.1 1.6 21 24 36 432 527 OECD 2.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 14 30 45 1523 1616 5.4 3.8 5.0 1.9 3 8 11 192 231 1.6 1.8 2.6 0.8 1 2 3 381 395 129 112 153 56 138 258 387 18759 19990 Gtoe 10 H-H. Rogner, 199712)

  • 2-3

    A B C D E A B C D E 140 0 104 97 387 12 0 3 28 111 883 6 1 3 7 28 0 0 0 0 1 47 18 3 14 46 185 9 1 8 1 4 289 22 22 26 9 35 8 4 2 0 2 129 88 0 22 506 2025 22 0 2 44 176 2885 0 0 0 3 12 0 0 0 0 0 15 37 0 37 16 64 0 0 0 0 0 153 34 40 274 165 660 14 28 22 12 47 1295 OECD 20 147 18 47 188 9 23 1 0 0 452 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 3 9 7 28 19 7 28 1 0 0 0 0 89 372 241 518 903 3612 75 56 38 86 344 6246 Gtoe 10 H-H. Rogner, 199712)

    2-4

    I II III IV V VI VII VIII

  • (2)

    11 GLUE

    Global Land Use and Energy Model 1 3 ) 1 5 )

    IPCC SRES B2

    2-12 2-5

    2-5

    0

    1000

    2000

    3000

    4000

    5000

    2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

    Year

    Prim

    ary

    ener

    gy p

    oten

    tails

    (Mto

    e/yr

    )

    Energy crops & modern fuel woodWood residuesSawmill residuesTimber scrapsCereal harvest residuesSugarcane harvest residuesBagassePaper scrapsBlack liquorKitchen wastesAnnimal wastes (dry)Annimal wastes (wet)Human Feces

    2-5

    2-5

    ($ / toe) 120 - 1200

    80 30 30 - 60

    80 60

    30 320 - 390 -340

    0 -550 -550

    0

  • IIASA Nakicenovic 1 6 )

    15,000TWh/yr 13,500TWh/yr 1,500TWh/yr

    2-6

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

    TWh/yr

    $/M

    Wh

    2-6

    IIASA Nakicenovic 1 6 )

    7,600TWh/yr 2-7

    2050 1%

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

    TWh/yr

    $/M

    Wh

    2-7 1990

  • 2-6

    286,000TWh/yr

    EPRI 1 7 )2050 3.4%

    2-10

    DNE21

    15%

    2-6

    (TWh/yr )

    2000 ($/MWh)

    2050 ($/MWh)

    2,528 282 50 673 469 83

    208 396 70 23,310 317 56

    20,097 384 68 4,284 302 54 122,796 235 42

    94,799 256 45 10,544 384 68 7,200 396 70

    (3)

    2-8

  • 2 cent/kWh

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

    G

    W

    2-8

    (4)

    2-7

    2-8

    2-8

    2-9

    25%NEA/IEA 1 8 )IEA

    World Energy Outlook (WEO)1 8 ) IPCC 2 2 0 )

    2 1 )Herzog 2 2 )

    30 2-7

    2-7

    ($ /kW) (%) (%) 1060 500 17 85 410 270 17 85

    2050 970 17 85CO2 2170 1240 17 85

    1230 1000 17 85 1200 600 17 85 1100 500 17 85 2620 1790 19 80

    1500 1000 13 90

  • 2-8

    2000 2010 2030 2050 2100 47.0 49.6 54.8 60.0 65.0 36.0 41.2 46.4 49.0 49.0

    40.7 42.6 46.3 50.0 55.0 CO2 36.0 38.2 42.6 47.0 52.0

    24.1 29.6 40.6 45.0 45.0 44.9 48.3 51.6 55.0 60.0 51.4 52.3 54.1 55.9 65.0

    70.0 70.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 CO2 CO2

    2-9

    ($/(toe/day)) () () 203,000 90 61 164,000 90 76 193,000 90 52 14,000 90 99

    (CO) 113,000 90 62 (CO2) 126,000 90 62

    112,000 90 77 223,000 90 80-90 29,000 70 95 42,000 70 90 200,000 90 67

    230,000 90 75 46,000 70 93

    33%

    (5)

    CO2

    SELEXOL CO 2

    Herzog 2 2 )

    2-10 CO2 CO2

    4 CO2

    2-11

  • 2-10 CO2

    ($/(tC/day)) (MWh/tC) 56,500 0.927 0.719

    14,500 0.902 0.496

    2-11 CO2

    CO2 ($/ tC) CO2 (GtC) 87 125 9 .2 46 8 .2 10 150 499.0 25

    20002000 CO2

    (6) CO2

    CO2 30 2075 2100

    25

    CO2 2-12

    CO2

    CO2

    2-12 CO2

    (Mha)

    ()

    (tC/ha)

    ($/tC)

    43.80 2 100 30 6.84 2 100 30

    0.08 2 100 30 15.75 2 100 30

    4.95 2 100 15 17.10 2 150 10 2.70 2 100 15 88.00 2 150 10 43.80 2 150 10 27.90 2 100 15

  • (7)

    DNE21

    6

    2-9 DNE21

    5

    (cent/kWh)

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

    (km)

    ($/

    toe

    CO

    2

    $/tC)

    2-9 CO2

    (8)

    DNE21

    2-10 4

  • (GW)

    ()

    ()

    2-10

    2.2.2

    (1) GDP

    GDP 2-11 IPCC SRES6 ) B2

    OECD/IEA 7 ) 8 )SRES B2

    1998 2 3 )

    GDP SRES B2 GDP

    GDP

    GDP CO 2 CO2

    GDP

    4 SRES B2 GDP GDP

    GDP

    CO2 CO2

    DNE21 10 GDP 2-12

    2-13 2-14

  • Population ReferenceGDP

    Populationfor IPCC SRES B2

    (UN, 1998)

    Annual Growth Rateof GDP per capitafor IPCC SRES B2

    Histrical Data of GDPin OECD/IEA 2002(World Bank 2002)

    Histrical Dataof Population

    in OECD/IEA 2002(World Bank 2002)

    Annual Growth Rateof Final Energy Demand

    by Fuel per GDPfor IPCC SRES B2

    Reference Final EnergyDemand by Fuel

    Histrical Dataof Final Energy

    Consumption by Fuelin OECD/IEA 2002

    Model Assumption by Regionbetween 2000 and 2100