Trend and Requirement of an Integration Study-From the 23rd CEE Symposium-

October 19th, 2016

Kazuhiko OGIMOTO

Collaborative Research Center for Energy Engineering

Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo

25th CEE Symposium“Power demand and supply analysis and Integration Study”

2Collaborative Research Center for Energy Engineering,

Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo ©2015 Ogimoto Lab.CEE

1. Latest Energy Situation in Japan and a future analysis

2. Power Demand and supply analysis

3. Integration Study

Agenda-本日の内容

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Electricity balance of the long-term supply demand outlook日本の長期エネルギー需給見通し（電力）.

Electricity balance of the long-term supply demand outlook.

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Progress of RE deployment under FIT programFITプログラムのもとでの再エネの導入の進展

Fig. 2 Installed capacity of renewable generation (by courtesy of METI)

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Actual demand and supply balance in Kyushu-area九州における需給状況

Fig. 8 Demand and supply balance of the Kyushu area on May 4th, 2016 (modified from material of Kyushu EPCO)

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PV carrying capacities in FY20142014年度に検討されたPVの接続可能量

PV carrying capacities studied in the Working Group in FY2014

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Results from a integration studyIntegration studyの結果

Fig. 9 Annual PV and wind generation curtailments by production simulation of 10 balancing areas with interconnections in 2030. (Ei: Isolated or no interconnection, Ee: energy exchange, Eb: Balancing capacity exchange, Pe: RE priority dispatch with energy exchange)

Assumption: PV 103 GW, Wind 32 GW

The RE curtailment is reduced from around 10% to around 7% by the implementation of the balancing cap. Exchange.

K. Ogimoto, K. Ohbayashi, K. Asano: Progress and future of Japan’s PV deployment, Solar Integration Workshop (2016, TBP)

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Gaps and future possibilities前提の相違と将来の可能性

K. Ogimoto, K. Ohbayashi, K. Asano: Progress and future of Japan’s PV deployment, Solar Integration Workshop (2016, TBP)

Transition from priority dispatch to economic dispatch

Effective operation of conventional and variable-speed pumped storage plants and their expansion, if possible

Balanced deployment distribution of generations including variable renewable such as PV and wind

Maximum utilization of interconnection capacity by enhanced operation and expansion as required

Enhancement of flexibility of conventional thermal power plants

Introduction of innovative flexibility resources including demand response and battery storage for various types of system services

Enhancement of PV and wind generation forecast technology

Enhancement of power system operation which optimize the utilization of all resources.

Electrification of fossil-fuel energy demand for direct CO2 reduction and indirect reduction through the better use of variable renewable.

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Production simulation by UC+simulation is a core tool of power demand supply analysis of a power system with increased variability and uncertainty due to vRES penetration.起動停止計画+シミュレーションは、出力が変動する再生化のエネルギー発電の導入が進み変動性と不確実性が増加する電力システムにおいて、需給解析の基本ツールである。

Unit commitment and simulation起動停止計画とシミュレーション

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Demand and supply analysis for Everyday Operation 電力需給解析を活用した「毎日の運用」

米国ISO PJM の例https://www.ferc.gov/CalendarFiles/20160804133957-2%20-%20MarketEfficiency_ModelEnhancement_HC_2016.pdf

ISOs/RTOs. use UC and other kinds of software to verify the market results in terms of technical adequacy and execute re-dispatch if necessary. 米国ISO/RTOでは、ゲートクローズ後、技術的な妥当性を確かめ必要な需給運用の修正を行うのにUCなどが用いられる。

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Daily operation planning using supply and demand analysis電力需給解析を活用した「毎日の運用」の例

故なき見かけ衡平負担ではなく原因者負担を追求するPJMの「一般負担」低減への取り組みhttps://www.ferc.gov/CalendarFiles/20160804133957-2%20-%20MarketEfficiency_ModelEnhancement_HC_2016.pdf

システム運用・市場運営の鍵はプロセスの透明な定義とPDCAを活かした継続的改善（MISO) https://www.ferc.gov/CalendarFiles/20160804133957-3%20-%20MISO%20FERC_M1_Chen_062016.pdf

In FERC’s project “Increasing Efficiency through Improved Software”, the Commission is identifying opportunities to enhance operational efficiency in jurisdictional markets by encouraging public utilities, particularly RTOs and ISOs, to consider the deployment of new modeling software for their market operations. 米国FERCによるISO/RTOの運用ソフトウェアの継続的改善のためのプロジェクト

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Indices指標：Economy, Security, Environment, Process efficiency経済性、安定供給、環境性、業務効率

Objectives：運用計画、設備計画の評価・立案

Off-line operation/asset planning ⇒⇒⇒Integration studyオフラインの将来に向けた運用計画・評価/設備計画

On-line operation/demand supply controlオンラインの毎日の運用計画・需給制御

andに加えて、

Tools for many stakeholders including governments, private companies, people to consider and communicate about operation and asset planning of power and energy多くのステークホルダーがエネルギー・電力の運用と設備形成を考え意志疎通するツール

Tools for manufacturers and service providers to recognize values to design their productsメーカー、サービスプロバイダーが価値を認識し、商品設計を行うためのツール

Objectives of power demand and supply analysis電力需給解析の目的

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Emerging issues and conditions 新しい要素：

Variability and uncertainty of variable RESPV・風力の出力の変動性と不確定性

Requirement for flexibilities in various time domain様々な時間領域での柔軟性の必要性

Observability, predictability and controllability of distributed resourcessuch as vRES, cogeneration, DR, and storage 再エネ、コジェネ、DR、貯蔵等の状態把握性、予測性と制御性

Interaction between transmission and distribution system with numerous resources無数の資源を持つ配電網と送電網の相互関係など

Process improvements and redesign of power market under emerging issues including difficulties of operation and transition of values運用性、価値の変化などのもとでの電力市場の再設計

Issues of operation/asset planning of a power system電力システム運用計画・設備計画の課題

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Emerging Requirements 需給モデルの新たな要件

Variability, uncertaingy and flexibility of various time domain様々な時間領域の変動性と不確実性、調整力の取扱い

Involvement of innovative technologies including distributed resource and aggregation小規模分散資源、アグリゲーションを含む新たな技術の取り扱い

Interconnection, tramsmission/distribution network連系線、送配電網

Interaction with market process: DA, ID, GC, realtime, settlement

市場との連動：前々日、前日、当日、GC後、リアルタイム、評価

Analysis Model需給解析モデル

Unit commitment+Simulation/SCUC/SCED/

LP線形計画法/MIPS混合整数計画法/Probabilistic-Rbust

Stability of Synchronization, frequency, power flow周波数・潮流・安定度など過渡解析

Directions of demand and supply analysis電力需給解析モデルの方向性

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Integration studies using power demand and supply analysis電力需給解析によるIntegration studyの例

Integration studies surveyed in IEA PVPS Task 14 Subtask 3

Ogimoto et al. “Survey and case studies of transmission level PV integration assessments utilizing generation forecasts and innovative flexibility resources”, Wind Integration Workshop (2016, TBP)

Study Name Study Area Date of issue UCPV

forecastFlexibility Resources other than conventional thermal

Dena Ancillary Service Study 2030 Germany July 2014 YES(not in

focus)

ex. Frequency Control: Pump Storage, Batteries,

RES, DR

Stromspeicher in der Energiewende (in German) Germany Sep. 2014 YES(not in

focus)

Storage (different types), DR, CHP, Interconnection,

RES

The European Power System in 2030:

Flexibility Challenges and Integration Benefits

Europe, Focus on

PLEFJune 2015 YES

(not in

focus)Interconnection, RES, Stored Hydro

Real Time Generation Mapping of Distributed PV for Network Planning and

OperationsAustralia

November

2015YES

YES

(Partly)Situational awareness

E-Highway 2050 Europe Dec. 2015 YES YESInterconnection, HVDC, Phase shifters, pumped

hydro

GARPUR EuropeDec. 2013 -

April 2016

YES

(Partly)YES Interconnection, HVDC, Phase shifters

Umbrella EuropeApril 2012 -

Feb. 2016NO YES Interconnection, HVDC, Phase shifters

iTesla Tool/?April 2012 -

Jan. 2015NO YES Interconnection, HVDC, Phase shifters

Optimate EuropeJune 2010 -

March 2013NO YES Interconnection

Day ahead' prognose and 'Online' prognose Denmark --- YES YES ---

SCS Energiemodell Switzerland May 2013 YES YESPV output suppression, hydro power (pumped

storage), batteries, interconnection

Western Wind and Solar Integration Study US Western Int. May 2010 YES YES Interconnection, Storage, DR

Western Wind and Solar Integration Study II US Western Int. Sep. 2013 YES YES Interconnection

Western Wind and Solar Integration Study III US Western Int. Dec. 2014 YES YES Interconnection

Western Wind and Solar Integration Study IIIa: Low Levels of Synchronous US Western Int. Nov. 2015 YES YES Interconnection

Low Carbon Grid Study: Analysis of a 50% Emission Reduction in California US (California) January 2016 YES YES Interconnection, StorageOvergeneration from Solar Energy in California: A Field Guide to the Duck

Chart US (California) Nov. 2015 YES NO Storage, DR

The value of day-ahead solar power forecasting improvement US Jan. 2016 YES YES Interconnection, Storage, DR, Faster ramping plants

The Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study: Flexibility and High

Penetrations of Wind and Solar - IEEE PES GM 2015

US Eesten

InterconnectionJuly 2015 YES YES Interconnection, Storage

METI Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Transmission System

Hosting Capacity Working Group (in Japanese)Japan

Oct. 2014 -

Nov. 2015YES NO Interconnection, PV output control, Batteries

Report of Policies and Countermeasures after 2013, Chapter 10 Energy Supply

Working Group (in Japanese)Japan July 2012 YES NO Interconnection, PV output control, Batteries, DR

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Integration study case studiesIntegration studyの事例

Fig. 3 WWSISF: frequency response to loss of two Palo Verde units under light spring system conditions.

Ogimoto et al. “Survey and case studies of transmission level PV integration assessments utilizing generation forecasts and innovative flexibility resources”, Wind Integration Workshop (2016, TBP)

Fig. 4 Fraunhofer: Wind power generation time series (onshore) for May 2030 at different levels of aggregation.

Figure 6 EdF R&D: Structure of the whole system approach for the simulation of the European electricity system.

Fig. 5 METI: Image of 24 hour demand and supply balance in Kyushu on a day of maximum RES generation.

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Began with integration of renewable generation再生可能エネルギーの統合で始まった

Included enhanced and innovative technologies and processes for better integrationRE統合を改善するために、技術、プロセスオプションを含むようになった。

Expanded to the integration of innovative technologies, enhanced operational process, themselves革新技術やプロセス改善の導入検討に発展した。

Expanded to different aspects of impacts of frequency, transient stability, and gas-electric integration周波数安定性、過渡安定度、ガスとの統合など、多様な影響の分析に発展。

Technical and economical evaluation of value, cost and price formation価値, コストの技術的、経済的評価、価格形成

Trend of integration studiesIntegration Studyの動向

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“While the CPP assigns no direct role to the Commission, it is possible that the Commission may be called upon, through the EPA-DOE-FERC Coordination Document or for other reasons, to address concerns about reliability as the CPP is implemented. In that case, the use of appropriate modeling tools and techniques will be helpful to the Commission in carrying out its responsibilities for reliability. “

This white paper identifies four guiding principles that may assist transmission planning entities 基本原則:(1) transparency and stakeholder engagement; 透明性(2) study methodology and interactions between studies; 検討手法と検討間の連携(3) study inputs, sensitivities and probabilistic analysis; and 入力データ、ケース検討(4) tools and techniques. ツールと手法

There are a number of different types of studies that could be useful to effectively assess the impacts of the CPP and associated compliance plans多種の検討:

(1) resource adequacy, 供給力のアデカシー評価(2) production cost, 起動停止計画＋シミュレーションによるコスト、信頼度解析(3) integrated gas-electric systems simulations, 天然ガスと電力の連系した解析(4) powerflow and transient stability analysis, and 潮流解析、過渡安定度解析(5) frequency response. 周波数応答解析

FERC: Staff White Paper on Guidance Principles for Clean Power Plan Modeling

FERC: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

160120 FERC, Staff White Paper on Guidance Principles for Clean Power Plan Modeling

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Reliable data of facility and operation信頼できる設備、運用データ

For production simulation UC+simulation is the core.UC+simulationによるProduction simulationがベース

Appropriate models of existing and innovative technologies既存技術、将来技術のモデル

Combination of methodologies for different aspects多面的な解析のための手法の組み合わせ

⇒Frequency analysis, transient analysis, and Gas-Electric integration

Appropriate models of system and market operation運用/市場プロセスモデル

With vRES, at lease one year production analysis出力の変動する再生可能エネルギーを含む場合は最低1年のproduction解析

Probabilistic/robust analysis 確率的/ロバスト解析

Requirements for integration studiesIntegration Studyの必要条件

Thank you

Ogimoto Laboratory, Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo

http://www.ogimotolab.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/

In , related contents are available in English and Japanese. http://nippon.com/en/in-depth/a00302/

The description of “1. Impact of Scenario Selection” is available in this book which is just published July, 2012.

IEA PVPS Task 14 Report ” Power System Operation and Augmentation Planning with PV Integration” has been publishedhttp://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=322

With NEDO, translated IEA ”The Power of Transformation” into Japanese.

http://www.nedo.go.jp/library/denryoku_henkaku.html

“The integration of variable renewable generation and the evolution of power system” is published in the Magazine of Atomic Energy Society of Japan.(Jan., Feb. and May in 2015) http://www.aesj.or.jp/atomos/tachiyomi/mihon.html