فصل اول :کلیات تحقیق - imj.ut.ac.ir · PDF fileیت عنصتييردم نارهت هاگشناد تيريدم ۀدكشناد 1 ۀرامش ،7 ۀرود 191 راهب

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  • 1 7 1931 56- 28 .

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    16/03/1393:04/12/1393:

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  • 139417 66.

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  • 67...

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    ( 8005) . .

    - (8018) . . Arena 8

    ( 8019)

    1. Desireability

    2. Discrete-Event Simulation

  • 139417 68 . -

    (8019)

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    .

    SIMAN .

    . ( 1939)

    .

    .

    .

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    Enterprise Dynamics -

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  • 69...

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    1. Desireability Function

    2. Goodness of fit

    3. Validation

  • 139417 70

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  • 139417 72

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    78 66 10

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    80 16 2

    6 10 16 8 2 16 90 9 18 86 10 1 (Lognormal (20/7, 14) Lognormal (16/5, 11) Lognormal (14/5, 9/7 (Lognormal (30, 3

    Normal (168/7, 51/7)

    Lognormal (24, 2/4)

    Normal (135, 41)

    Lognormal (20/3, 2)

    Normal (118, 36) (Normal (173, 77/7

    Exponential (18)

    Normal (138/5, 62/2)

    Exponential (14/4) Normal (121, 54/4)

    Exponential (12/6) 2 Normal (153, 62/4)

    Lognormal (26, 17/5)

    Normal (122/4, 49/8)

    Lognormal (20/6, 14) Normal (107, 43/7)

    Lognormal (18, 12/3) (Lognormal (30, 19/5) Lognormal (24, 15/6) Lognormal (21, 13/7 (Lognormal (294,80

    Exponential (42)

    Lognormal (235,64)

    Exponential (33/6) Lognormal (211/5,56)

    Exponential (29/4) (Weibull (1/9, 52

    Weibull (2/2,400/6)

    Weibull (1/9, 41/6)

    Weibull (2/2, 320/5) Weibull (1/9, 36/4)

    Weibull (2/2, 280/4) 3 Uniform (24, 56)

    Uniform (8, 16)

    Lognormal (482,198)

    Uniform (12, 28)

    Uniform (4, 8)

    Lognormal (241, 99)

    -

  • 139417 74().2

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    -1+ 1 89 . . .

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    1. Response Surface Method (RSM)

  • 75...

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    21 . 1 . adjR pre 2 dR . 2P 1 Value 0 .

  • 139417 76(1) / / / / / y x x x x x 2 21 1 2 3 2 374 27 5 07 5 33 1 48 3 18 2

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  • 77...

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    1. Contour Plot

  • 139417 78 -1 . -1

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    .4

    70

    75

    80

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    65

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  • 79...

    . 6

    .

    . R /2 98 87/32 27%predR . 2 96%

    8 . . P Value 0 .

    (8) / / / / / /

    y x x x

    x x x x x x

    2 1 2 32 22 3 1 3 2 3

    1044 32 538 115 68 223 6758 25 111 91 88 71 46

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    0 P

    000/0 17/1918 6722220 1 6722220 000/0 07/58 857597 1 857597

    000/0 01/898 1000656 1 1000656 790/0 18/0 688 1 688 *

    015/0 99/1 12556 1 12556 * 000/0 00/15 52325 1 52325 * 221/0 08/0 33 1 33 *

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  • 139417 80 . + 1

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