پایش طرح جامع فوالد

د صنعت فوالعارضه های واکاوی

درمسیر توسعه

Iran Steel Chain 1397 (2018)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Iron ore Iron oreConcentrate

Pellet DRI Crude steel

52.448.2

32.6 33.9

92.2

45.241.5

26.4 24.7

8.85.5

2.8 0.55.5

Mill

ion

to

ns

Nominal Capacity

Production

Export

Estimation of the country steel chain – End of 1398(2019)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Iron oreConcentrate

Pellet DRI Crude steel Required IronOre

59.053.3

36.4 37.9

48.841.8

29.326.3

94.2

Mill

ion

to

ns

Capacity Estimate

Production Estimate

Production numbers are estimated based on eight months of production.Capacity numbers are estimated based on the percentage of progress of ongoing projects.

38 40

56 57

90

1710

25 23

40

55 50

81 80

130

57

83 80

162

-8-2

-32-50

0

50

100

150

200

Mill

ion

to

ns

Active plan Underway plan Total Demand Balance- Compelet the Chain

steel chain exports 1397-1398(2018-2019)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1397 1398E

536 1,059

5,548

6,566

889

8752,477

2,733

Tho

usa

nd

To

ns

DRI crude steel Flat steel products Long steel Products

891410173

Steel chain imports 1397-1398(2018-2019)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1397 1398E

۰ 28 5

909

444

339

98

Tho

usa

nd

Ton

s

Crude steel Flat steel products long steel products

1276

546

Apparent consumption of crude steel products (equivalent)

15.0

15.5

16.0

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

2017 2018 2019

17.75

16.1216.25

Mill

ion

Ton

s

0.9%

%9.2-

Goals of the vision document

اهداف تعیین شده در بخش صنعت (1384-1404)بر اساس سند چشم انداز بیست ساله کشور

:صنعت فوالد کشورمیلیون تن55معادل با : درصد از تولید جهانی فوالد3.5کسب سهم

میلیون تن20معادل با : درصدی از صادرات فوالد جهان4و کسب سهم

: خطوط ریلی هزار کیلومتر25: طول کل خطوط ریلی

میلیون تن202: ظرفیت کل حمل بار ریلیمیلیون تن535: ظرفیت حمل بار جاده ای

میلیون تن210: ظرفیت حمل و نقل دریایی:صنعت برق

مگاوات نصب شده نیروگاهی100000دستیابی به ظرفیت بیش از درصد8کاهش تلفات انرژی به

افزایش ساالنه سه تا پنج هزار مگاوات به ظرفیت نیروگاههای تجدید پذیر

67%

89%

73%

25%

54%

81%

70%

Sea freight unloadingand loading

Nominal capacity ofcommercial ports

Road CarriageDisplacement

Rail freight displacementRailway length

Power generationcapacity

Steel capacity

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Realized goals of the vision document(1397)

0.8

-6.5

-4.5-5.6

-13.9-15

-10

-5

0

5Mining

Industry

constructionWater, Electricity,Gas supply

Extraction of natural gas and oil

Apr2017-march 2018 Apr2018-march 2019

The growth rate of the value added industry sector

(1396-1397 )

-3%

2%

7%

12%

17%

22%

Economic Growth Building value

Added Growth

Industry Value

Added Growth

Gross Fixed capital

Formation growth

2.10%

-0.98%

3.40%

-0.40%

8.0% 7.5%9.3%

21.4%

Average growth rate from the fourth development plan until the end of 1396

Sixth development plan

Goals set in the Sixth Development Plan (1396-1400) and Compare with the achievement goals in previous development programs

Iran economic growth 1391-1397(2012-2018)

-6.2

-0.6

2.6

0.5

12.1

3.9

-4.9

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1391 1392 1393 1394 1395 1396 1397

Industry sector production index growth and building value added growth

-9.9

-4.6

3.2

-0.3

6.5

3.6

-6.5

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1391 1392 1393 1394 1395 1396 1397

Industry sector production index Growth

Building Value added growth

Government construction & infrastructure payments

(1384-1397) - Fixed price 1395

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Bill

ion

Ria

ls

Initial Approved

Achieved

Iran’s Rank in world Business Environments Index

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

142

137140

144

152 152

119117

120

124

128 127

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

4541.0

34.0 34.0

30.026.0

23.5

Mil

lio

n T

on

s

Assumption of steel use forecast in 1398:

Time period is considered: The last 20 years

Industry Sector Value Added Growth: 5.3%

Building Sector Value Added Growth: 2.3%

Apparent steel use per capita (crude steel equivalent)-2018

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Syria

Yemen

Pakistan

India

Iraq

Egypt

Kazakhstan

Bahrain

IRAN

Libya

France

Saudi Arabia

Denmark

Portugal

Russia

Spain

Oman

United States

Kuwait

Turkey

Canada

Italy

Sweden

Germany

Australia

Japan

Slovenia

Qatar

Czech Republic

United Arab Emirates

Developed Countries

Developing Countries

300 kg

IRAN:195 kg

Export potential of Iranian steel products

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

FLAT PRODUCTS EXPORT LONG PRODUCTS EXPORT

1.64

2.48

7.27 7.20

Mil

lionT

ons

Iran's largest export volume Iran's Export Potential capacity

39

45

50

5355 55 55

26.728.6

30.633.0

35.8

39.0

43.9

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1398 1399 1400 1401 1402 1403 1404

Crude steel capacity

Total consumption and export based on DSM method, commercial similarity

and maximum export potential

24

19.2

Dispersion in active steel units(1398)

-20%

10%

40%

70%

100%

North Sea Margin

East and North East

Center

South Sea Margin

North West

West

Pellet DRI Crude steel

Low share of quality steel products from total steel production in

Iran (2018)

1.7%

6.9%6.6%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Iran China World

Steel structure ownership(1397)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Capacity Production

59.9%70.7%

40.1%29.3%

public-private

private

Production:

24.7 Mt

Capacity: 33.9

Mt

World and Iran steel trade structure

Crude steel

15%

Flat steel

Products

50% Long steel

Products

35%

Crude

steel

71%

Flat steel

products

18%

Long steel

products

11%

Crude

steel

62%

Flat steel

products

10%

Long steel

products

28%

World steel trade

Iran Steel trade 1397 Iran Steel Trade : Ave 1394-1396

1,3591,796

913

1,109

20182040e

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Mil

lio

n t

on

s

Flat

Long

80%

capacity

72%

capacity

:سهم ایران در تولید محصوالت نهایی در جهاندرصد0.9: محصوالت تختدرصد1.1:محصوالت طولی

الهایسدرجهانتولیددرایرانفعلیسهمشوداگرفرضدرولیدتمیزانرودمیانتظارآنگاهباشد،داشتهادامهآتیصورتایندر.باشدتنمیلیون27بامعادل2040سال

بودنخواهدسازیظرفیتبهنیازی

The uncertainty of Iran steel chain about finished steel products

18.9811.94

15.78

3.19

30.1

9.6

11.1

18.0

Current

capacity

production

2018

production

2040

Surplus

capacity in

2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mil

lio

n t

on

s

Flat

Long

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Crude steel DRI Pellet Iron oreconcentrate

Infrastructurefor plans

Total

2,145

1,010 897664

143

4,859

Mill

ion

eu

ro

32

Mill

ion

eu

ro

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

3,856

945450 727

2,804

55720

9,557

33

Iran average Fe content of iron ore :46%

Type of iron ore: Magnetite (90%), Hematite (10%)

GeologicalReserve

5 Billion Tonnes

proven reserves

3.3 Billion Tons

Major iron-ore region of the country

Sangan Region

Iran Central Region(Zarand -Saghand -Bafgh)

Sirjan Region

Iron ore reserves

probable reserves

1.7 Billion Tons

Iran iron ore reserve status

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Geological reserve Proven reserve Demand until 2025-based on Iran steel

comprehensive planstudies

Remaining provenreserves

5

3.3

1.1

2.2

ند ت

اریلی

م

Average grade of Iron ore in Iran: about 46%Iron ore deposits is adequate almost 14years after 2025

35

Source: IMIDRO 2019

پیشنهاد

:نظر به

الد، عدم انطباق برنامه های سازمانهای اثر بخش در برنامه زنجیره فو

شرایط اقتصادی ،

وضعیت بازار مصرف و صادرات،

وضعیت سنگ آهن،

مورد بازنگری زمانی 1404هدف گذاری

. و تمهیدات مدیریتی قرار گیرد

سپاس