„ Wpływ środków europejskich na sytuację gospodarczą ”

Wpyw rodkw europejskich na sytuacj gospodarcz

Elbieta Biekowska Minister Rozwoju Regionalnego

Wpyw polityki spjnoci na poziom PKB w latach 2004-2015 (wg modeli ekonometrycznych)Dziki funduszom UE w 2007 r. poziom PKB by wyszy o od 26 mld z (model MaMoR2) do 31 mld z (model HERMIN). W kolejnych latach oddziaywanie funduszy dalej bdzie si zwiksza, osigajc maksimum (modelu HERMIN w roku 2013, kiedy to poziom PKB bdzie wyszy o blisko 176 mld z. Wg modelu MaMoR2 skala oddziaywania bdzie si zwiksza z kadym rokiem, osigajc swoje maksimum (ok. 167 mld z) w roku 2015.

Wykres2

92

126.1

1819.6

2631.2

4057.2

4946

6290.7

8198.7

99128.4

124175.7

147153.7

167145.6

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

Zes3F

200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202004-20062004-2015

Infrastruktura, unijneSim0.00.94.08.88.68.312.612.915.018.811.77.71.64689738679.1038901617

Kapita ludzki, unijneSim0.00.41.94.03.13.05.65.66.17.24.22.60.74594002333.6276545425

Wsparcie dla firm, unijneSim0.01.22.13.92.42.03.83.84.24.92.91.81.09510705332.7570202492

Infrastruktura, krajoweSim0.00.31.72.72.41.92.72.83.34.22.61.70.67146452332.197898335

Kapita ludzki, krajoweSim0.00.10.71.20.80.51.01.01.11.30.70.50.26533154670.730527965

Wsparcie dla firm, krajoweSim0.00.51.11.60.90.40.70.70.70.90.50.30.53432952670.6799823358

PKB, poziomRel0.1%0.2%0.4%0.9%1.9%2.6%3.2%4.3%5.4%6.6%8.1%9.0%9.5%9.3%9.1%8.9%8.7%0.2%3.6%

0.0%0.5%1.6%3.3%3.2%3.3%5.6%6.5%7.8%9.9%8.0%6.9%3.2%

PKB, dynamikaDyn0.130.060.180.570.930.680.641.050.981.191.440.780.47-0.18%-0.14%-0.18%-0.21%0.13%0.72%

0.000.461.241.71-0.160.152.340.871.332.02-1.87-1.060.94-0.36%-0.29%-0.37%-0.41%

SpoycieRel1.94%1.52%0.70%1.21%2.73%2.84%3.11%4.01%4.24%5.91%7.77%9.65%10.60%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.6%1.4%3.8%

0.20%0.20%0.20%0.20%1.03%2.50%5.08%6.03%7.26%9.23%6.80%5.36%1.98%

InwestycjeRel1.2%4.5%7.5%8.5%6.1%7.9%9.5%11.4%14.2%13.5%15.7%14.1%14.51%12.5%11.0%9.7%8.5%4.4%9.5%

0.0%2.3%7.0%13.6%12.0%10.9%17.6%18.5%22.1%28.1%18.6%13.2%1.51%

EksportRel-0.7%-0.7%-0.6%-0.1%1.0%1.9%2.5%3.7%4.9%6.2%8.0%9.0%9.8%9.7%9.6%9.4%9.2%-0.7%2.9%

ImportRel2.0%2.3%2.7%3.9%4.3%4.6%5.6%6.5%7.2%8.6%9.0%9.2%8.8%8.4%8.2%7.9%7.6%2.4%5.5%

ZatrudnienieRel-0.1%-0.0%0.2%0.7%1.3%1.4%1.6%2.3%2.6%3.2%3.8%3.4%3.2%2.6%2.5%2.4%2.3%-0.0%1.7%2.63%

stopa bezrobocia0-0.29-1.05-1.97-1.62-1.41-2.45-2.5-2.98-3.83-2.23-1.390.34%

Przecitne wynagrodzenieRel0.1%0.1%0.2%0.4%0.7%1.3%1.8%2.2%2.9%3.7%4.5%5.7%6.6%7.3%7.4%7.5%7.6%0.2%2.0%

Zatrudnienie, tys. os-12.1-3.114.463.2119.7126.0149.2214.8243.7300.5359.4326.9307.8247.5243.8233.1223.5-0.3158.6

pracujcy047167316259226393400476613357223

Wydajno pracyRel0.27%0.23%0.22%0.25%0.58%1.21%1.62%1.99%2.69%3.31%4.17%5.35%6.06%6.5%6.4%6.3%6.2%0.2%1.8%6.32%

0.00%0.10%0.39%0.94%1.24%1.66%2.75%3.59%4.39%5.44%5.43%5.37%3.75%

Poziom cenRel1.1%1.2%1.3%1.6%1.3%1.1%1.2%1.1%0.9%0.9%0.3%0.1%-0.4%-0.5%-0.5%-0.6%-0.6%1.2%1.0%

InflacjaDyn1.1%0.1%0.1%0.3%-0.3%-0.2%0.2%-0.2%-0.2%0.0%-0.6%-0.3%-0.5%-0.1%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.4%0.0%

Zasb infrastrukturyRel0.0%0.0%0.2%1.1%2.9%4.6%6.0%8.1%10.2%12.6%15.6%17.1%17.6%16.5%15.5%14.5%13.6%0.1%6.5%

Zasb kapitau rzeczowegoRel0.0%0.1%0.3%0.6%1.0%1.3%1.6%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.6%4.2%4.6%5.1%5.5%5.8%6.0%0.1%1.7%

Zasb kapitau ludzkiegoRel0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.1%1.5%1.8%2.2%2.4%2.5%2.4%2.3%2.3%2.2%0.0%0.9%

26.97%11.58%36.87%113.92%185.59%136.21%128.65%210.97%195.79%237.08%287.66%156.30%93.59%-0.36%-0.29%-0.37%-0.41%

PKB, poziom200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

ip0.00330.591,666.393,554.033,653.453,594.625,802.286,315.367,883.2610,560.437,026.384,920.24

rzl0.18128.58743.961,616.231,276.591,240.312,481.462,651.923,070.153,872.202,399.601,625.11

bsp0.00460.32918.731,698.451,085.12837.751,684.261,811.752,111.412,675.131,667.061,132.71

razem0.18919.493,329.086,868.706,015.155,672.689,968.0010,779.0313,064.8217,107.7611,093.047,678.06

0.00134858490.00057886070.00184360250.00569619140.00927967060.00681067520.00643250120.01054827940.00978935310.011853790.01438279490.00781510670.0046796826

0.00269716970.00115772130.00368720510.01139238280.01855934120.01362135050.01286500240.02109655880.01957870610.023707580.02876558980.01563021340.0093593652

0.13485848670.05788606570.18436025360.56961913910.92796705980.6810675230.64325012071.05482794240.97893530681.1853790021.43827949230.78151066790.467968258

0.26971697340.11577213130.36872050721.13923827821.85593411971.36213504591.28650024132.10965588481.95787061352.3707580042.87655898461.56302133590.9359365159

PKB, dynamikaPKB Polskifundusze UE

mld zmld eurmln eur

2004923237236,6670.180.00%654293658.690156654.29365869020.28%

2005981252251,538919.490.37%2050123569.716612050.12356971660.82%

20061,051269269,4873,329.081.24%4239610251.60994239.61025160991.57%

20071,116286286,1546,868.702.40%6261667652.855476261.66765285552.19%

20081,191305305,3856,015.151.97%6531665364.04096531.66536404092.14%

20091,272326326,1545,672.681.74%6020338047.294126020.33804729411.85%

20101,358348348,2059,968.002.86%10446965658.941210446.96565894123.00%

20111,450372371,79510,779.032.90%11160896470.588211160.89647058823.00%

20121,549397397,17913,064.823.29%13535555294.117613535.55529411763.41%

20131,654424424,10317,107.764.03%17651630588.235317651.63058823534.16%

20141,766453452,82111,093.042.45%11477517647.058811477.51764705882.53%

20151,886484483,5907,678.061.59%7915529411.764717915.52941176471.64%

4,153,07797945.7936149132.36%

Liczba osb pracujcych

(w tys.)

bez NSROz NSRO

Spoycie200614,508.614,508.60.0

200714,609.414,631.422.0

200814,719.914,821.8101.9

200914,702.314,951.3249.0

201014,690.315,190.5500.2

201114,677.915,289.5611.7

201214,670.015,410.2740.2

201314,667.215,590.2923.0

201414,669.515,407.1737.5

201514,677.215,286.0608.8

201614,690.114,997.7307.6

201714,708.214,953.8245.6

201814,731.514,929.9198.4

201914,760.114,929.5169.5

202014,793.914,940.3146.4

200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

14508.614609.4314719.9314702.2714690.3314677.8814670.0214667.1614669.5414677.1914690.0814708.1914731.5214760.0714793.87

14508.614631.4114821.8414951.2915190.5215289.5315410.215590.1815407.0515285.9514997.6614953.7614929.8814929.5414940.3

Inwestycje0.022.0101.9249.0500.2611.7740.2923.0737.5608.8307.6245.6198.4169.5146.4

Eksport

Import

Zatrudnienie

Przecitne wynagrodzenie

Zatrudnienie, tys. os

Wydajno pracy

Poziom cen

Inflacja

Zasb infrastruktury

Zasb kapitau rzeczowego

Zasb kapitau ludzkiego

200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

%wpyw na inwestycjeNPR0.00%2.27%7.02%12.59%8.26%2.29%0.93%0.20%0.23%0.25%0.26%0.26%

NPR i NSRO0.00%2.27%7.02%13.55%11.99%10.89%17.56%18.52%22.07%28.08%18.58%13.18%

200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

%wpyw na wydajnoNPR0.00%0.10%0.39%0.89%1.00%0.97%1.11%1.02%0.98%0.95%0.91%0.87%

NPR i NSRO0.00%0.10%0.39%0.94%1.24%1.66%2.75%3.59%4.39%5.44%5.43%5.37%

NPR+NSRO

0

47

167

316

259

226

393

400

476

613

357

223

Zes3F

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

&A

Page &P

liczba osb, ktre zostay zatrudnione dziki realizacji programw finansowanych z funduszy unijnych

DANE

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

&A

Page &P

infrastruktura podstawowa

zasoby ludzkie

wsparcie dla przedsibiorstw

Zes3K

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

pkt proc

Zes2F

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

Zes2K

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

wpyw na stop bezrobocia - model HERMIN

pkt proc

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

liczba osb pracujcych w scenariuszu bez funduszy unijnych

liczba osb, ktre podjy prace dziki realizacji programw finansowanych z funduszy unijnych

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00



tys. osb

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


0.1348584867

0.0578860657

0.1843602536

0.5696191391

0.9279670598

0.681067523

0.6432501207

1.0548279424

0.9789353068

1.185379002

1.4382794923

0.7815106679

0.467968258

pkt proc

0.0013485849

0.0019282262

0.0037753836

0.0094930803

0.0188608435

0.0257999738

0.0323984334

0.0432884606

0.0535015797

0.0659895662

0.0813214755

0.0897721182

0.0948719058

%

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

%

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


tys. osb

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

%

0.13485848670

0.05788606570.46

0.18436025361.24

0.56961913911.71

0.9279670598-0.16

0.6810675230.15

0.64325012072.34

1.05482794240.87

0.97893530681.33

1.1853790022.02

1.4382794923-1.87

0.7815106679-1.06

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

pkt proc

0.00134858490

0.00192822620.0045

0.00377538360.0163

0.00949308030.033

0.01886084350.0315

0.02579997380.0329

0.03239843340.056

0.04328846060.0648

0.05350157970.0784

0.06598956620.0993

0.08132147550.0796

0.08977211820.0686

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

wskaniki zatrudnienialiczba pracujcychstopa bezrobociawydajnoc pracy UE-27=100tempo PKBpoziom PKB

model MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Hermin

2004-0.10.12004-252120040.2-0.120040.20.020040.10.2200492

20050.00.2200510612005-0.1-0.420050.10.120050.10.42005126

20060.20.72006451762006-0.3-1.120060.10.420060.31.320061820

20070.51.020071232522007-0.7-1.520070.20.620070.60.920072631

20080.71.620081904072008-1.1-2.520080.41.120080.82.020084057

20091.00.920092642422009-1.5-1.520090.81.120091.0-1.320094946

20100.92.020102485042010-1.4-3.020101.31.920100.53.020106291

20111.41.820113854532011-2.2-2.720111.52.220111.10.020118199

20121.52.120124055402012-2.3-3.320122.12.720120.91.4201299128

20131.92.720134896892013-2.8-4.220132.63.520131.12.22013124176

20142.21.620145714242014-3.3-2.620143.23.620141.3-2.12014147154

20152.11.120155352892015-3.0-1.720154.13.620150.7-1.12015167146

20162.00.02016516122016-2.9-0.120164.63.220160.5-2.8201618199

20171.80.12017445212017-2.5-0.120175.03.120170.0-0.22017191103

20181.80.12018446232018-2.5-0.120185.13.120180.0-0.22018203106

20191.80.12019437232019-2.4-0.120195.23.02019-0.1-0.22019214110

20201.70.12020429232020-2.3-0.120205.32.92020-0.1-0.22020226114

200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202004-20062004-2015

Infrastruktura, unijneSim0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.000

Kapita ludzki, unijneSim0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.000

Wsparcie dla firm, unijneSim0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.000




PKB, poziomRel-0.0%-0.0%0.1%0.3%0.5%0.7%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.5%1.8%1.9%2.0%2.0%1.9%1.9%1.8%0.0%0.8%

PKB, dynamikaDyn-0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.2%

SpoycieRel-0.0%-0.2%-0.4%-0.1%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.7%0.8%1.2%1.5%1.8%1.9%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%-0.2%0.5%

InwestycjeRel-0.1%1.1%2.5%3.5%2.4%2.1%2.8%3.3%3.9%4.2%4.0%3.6%2.9%2.5%2.2%1.9%1.7%1.2%2.8%

EksportRel0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.5%0.8%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.6%1.9%2.1%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.1%2.1%0.0%0.9%

ImportRel-0.1%-0.0%0.1%0.3%0.5%0.5%0.7%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.4%1.4%1.4%-0.0%0.7%

ZatrudnienieRel0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.7%0.8%0.7%0.7%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.0%0.4%

Przecitne wynagrodzenieRel-0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.7%0.9%1.0%1.2%1.5%1.7%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%-0.0%0.6%

Zatrudnienie, tys. os0.20.15.820.332.732.834.146.452.262.875.270.067.255.754.552.049.82.036.0

Wydajno pracyRel-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.7%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.3%1.4%1.4%1.3%1.3%-0.0%0.4%

Poziom cenRel-0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.1%-0.0%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.0%-0.1%

InflacjaDyn-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.1%-0.1%0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%


Zasb kapitau rzeczowegoRel0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.8%0.9%1.1%1.2%1.3%1.4%1.5%1.5%1.5%0.0%0.5%


PKB, poziom

PKB, dynamika

Spoycie

Inwestycje

Eksport

Import

Zatrudnienie



Wydajno pracy

Poziom cen

Inflacja

Zasb infrastruktury



200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202004-20062004-2015







PKB, poziomRel0.1%0.3%0.8%1.4%2.3%3.1%3.8%5.0%6.0%7.3%8.8%9.7%10.2%9.9%9.8%9.5%9.3%0.4%4.1%

PKB, dynamikaDyn0.1%0.2%0.4%0.7%0.9%0.8%0.7%1.1%1.0%1.2%1.4%0.8%0.4%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%0.3%0.8%

SpoycieRel2.1%1.5%1.3%1.8%3.0%3.3%3.8%4.7%4.9%6.6%8.5%10.5%11.5%11.6%11.6%11.5%11.4%1.6%4.3%

InwestycjeRel0.4%4.7%7.8%8.2%8.2%10.0%10.2%12.2%15.4%15.0%17.2%15.2%15.0%13.0%11.4%10.0%8.7%4.3%10.4%

EksportRel-0.8%-0.6%-0.3%0.4%1.4%2.4%3.0%4.3%5.5%6.8%8.7%9.7%10.5%10.3%10.2%10.0%9.8%-0.6%3.4%

ImportRel2.3%2.7%3.4%4.2%5.0%5.3%6.3%7.2%8.0%9.4%9.7%9.9%9.4%9.0%8.7%8.4%8.1%2.8%6.1%

ZatrudnienieRel-0.3%0.2%0.5%0.9%1.5%1.6%1.8%2.6%2.8%3.4%4.0%3.6%3.4%2.8%2.7%2.6%2.5%0.1%1.9%2.77%


Zatrudnienie, tys. os-23.515.444.586.2134.8151.5169.1239.3266.9323.5380.4345.1323.5262.4258.1246.7236.412.1177.8


Poziom cenRel1.2%1.3%1.5%1.5%1.4%1.1%1.3%1.1%0.9%0.9%0.4%0.1%-0.4%-0.5%-0.5%-0.6%-0.6%1.4%1.1%

InflacjaDyn1.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%-0.1%-0.3%0.1%-0.2%-0.2%0.0%-0.6%-0.3%-0.5%-0.1%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.5%0.0%




PKB, poziom

PKB, dynamika

Spoycie

Inwestycje

Eksport

Import

Zatrudnienie



Wydajno pracy

Poziom cen

Inflacja

Zasb infrastruktury



200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202004-20062004-2015







PKB, poziomRel-0.0%0.1%0.3%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.3%1.6%1.8%1.9%2.0%2.0%1.9%1.9%1.8%0.1%0.9%

PKB, dynamikaDyn-0.0%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.1%0.1%0.2%

SpoycieRel-0.1%-0.3%-0.1%0.1%0.3%0.5%0.6%0.8%0.9%1.2%1.5%1.8%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%-0.2%0.6%

InwestycjeRel-0.1%1.5%3.0%2.6%2.7%2.8%3.2%3.5%4.1%4.4%4.1%3.5%2.7%2.3%2.0%1.8%1.6%1.5%2.9%

EksportRel0.0%0.1%0.3%0.5%0.7%0.9%1.0%1.3%1.5%1.7%2.0%2.1%2.2%2.2%2.1%2.1%2.0%0.1%1.0%

ImportRel-0.1%0.0%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.8%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.4%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.4%1.4%1.3%0.1%0.7%

ZatrudnienieRel-0.1%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.7%0.8%0.7%0.7%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.1%0.4%

Przecitne wynagrodzenieRel0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.5%0.7%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.7%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%0.0%0.6%


Wydajno pracyRel0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.8%0.9%1.0%1.2%1.3%1.4%1.4%1.3%1.3%0.0%0.5%

Poziom cenRel-0.1%-0.0%0.0%-0.0%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.0%-0.1%

InflacjaDyn-0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%




PKB, poziom

PKB, dynamika

Spoycie

Inwestycje

Eksport

Import

Zatrudnienie



Wydajno pracy

Poziom cen

Inflacja

Zasb infrastruktury



Wpyw polityki spjnoci na wzrost PKBSzacunkowy wpyw wydatkowania rodkw unijnych na stop wzrostu PKB(w pkt proc. w odniesieniu do hipotetycznego scenariusza bez wykorzystania rodkw)

Wykres2

0.10.22

0.10.43

0.31.31

0.60.9

0.81.99

1-1.29

0.52.98

1.10.03

0.91.39

1.12.19

1.3-2.05

0.7-1.07

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

Zes3F

200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202004-20062004-2015







PKB, poziomRel0.1%0.2%0.4%0.9%1.9%2.6%3.2%4.3%5.4%6.6%8.1%9.0%9.5%9.3%9.1%8.9%8.7%0.2%3.6%

0.0%0.5%1.6%3.3%3.2%3.3%5.6%6.5%7.8%9.9%8.0%6.9%3.2%

PKB, dynamikaDyn0.130.060.180.570.930.680.641.050.981.191.440.780.47-0.18%-0.14%-0.18%-0.21%0.13%0.72%

0.000.461.241.71-0.160.152.340.871.332.02-1.87-1.060.94-0.36%-0.29%-0.37%-0.41%

SpoycieRel1.94%1.52%0.70%1.21%2.73%2.84%3.11%4.01%4.24%5.91%7.77%9.65%10.60%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.6%1.4%3.8%

0.20%0.20%0.20%0.20%1.03%2.50%5.08%6.03%7.26%9.23%6.80%5.36%1.98%

InwestycjeRel1.2%4.5%7.5%8.5%6.1%7.9%9.5%11.4%14.2%13.5%15.7%14.1%14.51%12.5%11.0%9.7%8.5%4.4%9.5%

0.0%2.3%7.0%13.6%12.0%10.9%17.6%18.5%22.1%28.1%18.6%13.2%1.51%

EksportRel-0.7%-0.7%-0.6%-0.1%1.0%1.9%2.5%3.7%4.9%6.2%8.0%9.0%9.8%9.7%9.6%9.4%9.2%-0.7%2.9%

ImportRel2.0%2.3%2.7%3.9%4.3%4.6%5.6%6.5%7.2%8.6%9.0%9.2%8.8%8.4%8.2%7.9%7.6%2.4%5.5%





pracujcy047167316259226393400476613357223


0.00%0.10%0.39%0.94%1.24%1.66%2.75%3.59%4.39%5.44%5.43%5.37%3.75%

Poziom cenRel1.1%1.2%1.3%1.6%1.3%1.1%1.2%1.1%0.9%0.9%0.3%0.1%-0.4%-0.5%-0.5%-0.6%-0.6%1.2%1.0%

InflacjaDyn1.1%0.1%0.1%0.3%-0.3%-0.2%0.2%-0.2%-0.2%0.0%-0.6%-0.3%-0.5%-0.1%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.4%0.0%




26.97%11.58%36.87%113.92%185.59%136.21%128.65%210.97%195.79%237.08%287.66%156.30%93.59%-0.36%-0.29%-0.37%-0.41%

PKB, poziom200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

ip0.00330.591,666.393,554.033,653.453,594.625,802.286,315.367,883.2610,560.437,026.384,920.24

rzl0.18128.58743.961,616.231,276.591,240.312,481.462,651.923,070.153,872.202,399.601,625.11

bsp0.00460.32918.731,698.451,085.12837.751,684.261,811.752,111.412,675.131,667.061,132.71

razem0.18919.493,329.086,868.706,015.155,672.689,968.0010,779.0313,064.8217,107.7611,093.047,678.06

0.00134858490.00057886070.00184360250.00569619140.00927967060.00681067520.00643250120.01054827940.00978935310.011853790.01438279490.00781510670.0046796826

0.00269716970.00115772130.00368720510.01139238280.01855934120.01362135050.01286500240.02109655880.01957870610.023707580.02876558980.01563021340.0093593652

0.13485848670.05788606570.18436025360.56961913910.92796705980.6810675230.64325012071.05482794240.97893530681.1853790021.43827949230.78151066790.467968258

0.26971697340.11577213130.36872050721.13923827821.85593411971.36213504591.28650024132.10965588481.95787061352.3707580042.87655898461.56302133590.9359365159


mld zmld eurmln eur

2004923237236,6670.180.00%654293658.690156654.29365869020.28%

2005981252251,538919.490.37%2050123569.716612050.12356971660.82%

20061,051269269,4873,329.081.24%4239610251.60994239.61025160991.57%

20071,116286286,1546,868.702.40%6261667652.855476261.66765285552.19%

20081,191305305,3856,015.151.97%6531665364.04096531.66536404092.14%

20091,272326326,1545,672.681.74%6020338047.294126020.33804729411.85%

20101,358348348,2059,968.002.86%10446965658.941210446.96565894123.00%

20111,450372371,79510,779.032.90%11160896470.588211160.89647058823.00%

20121,549397397,17913,064.823.29%13535555294.117613535.55529411763.41%

20131,654424424,10317,107.764.03%17651630588.235317651.63058823534.16%

20141,766453452,82111,093.042.45%11477517647.058811477.51764705882.53%

20151,886484483,5907,678.061.59%7915529411.764717915.52941176471.64%

4,153,07797945.7936149132.36%


(w tys.)

bez NSROz NSRO

Spoycie200614,508.614,508.60.0

200714,609.414,631.422.0

200814,719.914,821.8101.9

200914,702.314,951.3249.0

201014,690.315,190.5500.2

201114,677.915,289.5611.7

201214,670.015,410.2740.2

201314,667.215,590.2923.0

201414,669.515,407.1737.5

201514,677.215,286.0608.8

201614,690.114,997.7307.6

201714,708.214,953.8245.6

201814,731.514,929.9198.4

201914,760.114,929.5169.5

202014,793.914,940.3146.4

200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

14508.614609.4314719.9314702.2714690.3314677.8814670.0214667.1614669.5414677.1914690.0814708.1914731.5214760.0714793.87

14508.614631.4114821.8414951.2915190.5215289.5315410.215590.1815407.0515285.9514997.6614953.7614929.8814929.5414940.3

Inwestycje0.022.0101.9249.0500.2611.7740.2923.0737.5608.8307.6245.6198.4169.5146.4

Eksport

Import

Zatrudnienie



Wydajno pracy

Poziom cen

Inflacja

Zasb infrastruktury



200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015


NPR i NSRO0.00%2.27%7.02%13.55%11.99%10.89%17.56%18.52%22.07%28.08%18.58%13.18%

200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015


NPR i NSRO0.00%0.10%0.39%0.94%1.24%1.66%2.75%3.59%4.39%5.44%5.43%5.37%

NPR+NSRO

0

47

167

316

259

226

393

400

476

613

357

223

Zes3F

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

&A

Page &P


DANE

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

&A

Page &P


zasoby ludzkie


Zes3K

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

pkt proc

Zes2F

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

Zes2K

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


pkt proc

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00



00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00



tys. osb

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


0.1348584867

0.0578860657

0.1843602536

0.5696191391

0.9279670598

0.681067523

0.6432501207

1.0548279424

0.9789353068

1.185379002

1.4382794923

0.7815106679

0.467968258

pkt proc

0.0013485849

0.0019282262

0.0037753836

0.0094930803

0.0188608435

0.0257999738

0.0323984334

0.0432884606

0.0535015797

0.0659895662

0.0813214755

0.0897721182

0.0948719058

%

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

%

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


tys. osb

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

%

0.13485848670

0.05788606570.46

0.18436025361.24

0.56961913911.71

0.9279670598-0.16

0.6810675230.15

0.64325012072.34

1.05482794240.87

0.97893530681.33

1.1853790022.02

1.4382794923-1.87

0.7815106679-1.06

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

pkt proc

0.00134858490

0.00192822620.0045

0.00377538360.0163

0.00949308030.033

0.01886084350.0315

0.02579997380.0329

0.03239843340.056

0.04328846060.0648

0.05350157970.0784

0.06598956620.0993

0.08132147550.0796

0.08977211820.0686

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

wskaniki zatrudnienialiczba pracujcychstopa bezrobociawydajnoc pracy UE-27=100tempo PKBpoziom PKBpoziom UE-27

model MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Hermin

2004-0.10.12004-252120040.2-0.120040.20.020040.10.220041.1%1.1%20040.00.1

20050.00.2200510612005-0.1-0.420050.10.120050.10.420051.2%1.2%20050.10.3

20060.20.72006451762006-0.3-1.120060.10.420060.31.320061.7%1.7%20060.31.0

20070.51.020071232522007-0.7-1.520070.20.620070.60.920072.3%2.3%20070.61.5

20080.71.620081904072008-1.1-2.520080.41.120080.82.020083.3%3.3%20081.22.5

20091.00.920092642422009-1.5-1.520090.81.120091.0-1.320093.7%3.7%20091.91.9

20100.92.020102485042010-1.4-3.020101.31.920100.53.020104.4%4.4%20102.33.6

20111.41.820113854532011-2.2-2.720111.52.220111.10.020115.4%5.4%20113.13.7

20121.52.120124055402012-2.3-3.320122.12.720120.91.420126.1%6.1%20123.84.6

20131.92.720134896892013-2.8-4.220132.63.520131.12.220137.2%7.2%20134.76.0

20142.21.620145714242014-3.3-2.620143.23.620141.3-2.120148.1%8.1%20145.75.0

20152.11.120155352892015-3.0-1.720154.13.620150.7-1.120158.6%8.6%20156.34.5

20162.00.02016516122016-2.9-0.120164.63.220160.5-2.820168.7%8.7%20166.82.9

20171.80.12017445212017-2.5-0.120175.03.120170.0-0.220178.6%8.6%20177.02.9

20181.80.12018446232018-2.5-0.120185.13.120180.0-0.220188.5%8.5%20187.12.9

20191.80.12019437232019-2.4-0.120195.23.02019-0.1-0.220198.4%8.4%20197.22.8

20201.70.12020429232020-2.3-0.120205.32.92020-0.1-0.220208.3%8.3%20207.32.8

200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202004-20062004-2015







PKB, poziomRel-0.0%-0.0%0.1%0.3%0.5%0.7%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.5%1.8%1.9%2.0%2.0%1.9%1.9%1.8%0.0%0.8%

PKB, dynamikaDyn-0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.2%

SpoycieRel-0.0%-0.2%-0.4%-0.1%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.7%0.8%1.2%1.5%1.8%1.9%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%-0.2%0.5%

InwestycjeRel-0.1%1.1%2.5%3.5%2.4%2.1%2.8%3.3%3.9%4.2%4.0%3.6%2.9%2.5%2.2%1.9%1.7%1.2%2.8%

EksportRel0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.5%0.8%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.6%1.9%2.1%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.1%2.1%0.0%0.9%

ImportRel-0.1%-0.0%0.1%0.3%0.5%0.5%0.7%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.4%1.4%1.4%-0.0%0.7%





Poziom cenRel-0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.1%-0.0%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.0%-0.1%

InflacjaDyn-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.1%-0.1%0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%




PKB, poziom

PKB, dynamika

Spoycie

Inwestycje

Eksport

Import

Zatrudnienie



Wydajno pracy

Poziom cen

Inflacja

Zasb infrastruktury



200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202004-20062004-2015







PKB, poziomRel0.1%0.3%0.8%1.4%2.3%3.1%3.8%5.0%6.0%7.3%8.8%9.7%10.2%9.9%9.8%9.5%9.3%0.4%4.1%

PKB, dynamikaDyn0.1%0.2%0.4%0.7%0.9%0.8%0.7%1.1%1.0%1.2%1.4%0.8%0.4%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%0.3%0.8%

SpoycieRel2.1%1.5%1.3%1.8%3.0%3.3%3.8%4.7%4.9%6.6%8.5%10.5%11.5%11.6%11.6%11.5%11.4%1.6%4.3%

InwestycjeRel0.4%4.7%7.8%8.2%8.2%10.0%10.2%12.2%15.4%15.0%17.2%15.2%15.0%13.0%11.4%10.0%8.7%4.3%10.4%

EksportRel-0.8%-0.6%-0.3%0.4%1.4%2.4%3.0%4.3%5.5%6.8%8.7%9.7%10.5%10.3%10.2%10.0%9.8%-0.6%3.4%

ImportRel2.3%2.7%3.4%4.2%5.0%5.3%6.3%7.2%8.0%9.4%9.7%9.9%9.4%9.0%8.7%8.4%8.1%2.8%6.1%





Poziom cenRel1.2%1.3%1.5%1.5%1.4%1.1%1.3%1.1%0.9%0.9%0.4%0.1%-0.4%-0.5%-0.5%-0.6%-0.6%1.4%1.1%

InflacjaDyn1.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%-0.1%-0.3%0.1%-0.2%-0.2%0.0%-0.6%-0.3%-0.5%-0.1%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.5%0.0%




PKB, poziom

PKB, dynamika

Spoycie

Inwestycje

Eksport

Import

Zatrudnienie



Wydajno pracy

Poziom cen

Inflacja

Zasb infrastruktury



200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202004-20062004-2015







PKB, poziomRel-0.0%0.1%0.3%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.3%1.6%1.8%1.9%2.0%2.0%1.9%1.9%1.8%0.1%0.9%

PKB, dynamikaDyn-0.0%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.1%0.1%0.2%

SpoycieRel-0.1%-0.3%-0.1%0.1%0.3%0.5%0.6%0.8%0.9%1.2%1.5%1.8%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%-0.2%0.6%

InwestycjeRel-0.1%1.5%3.0%2.6%2.7%2.8%3.2%3.5%4.1%4.4%4.1%3.5%2.7%2.3%2.0%1.8%1.6%1.5%2.9%

EksportRel0.0%0.1%0.3%0.5%0.7%0.9%1.0%1.3%1.5%1.7%2.0%2.1%2.2%2.2%2.1%2.1%2.0%0.1%1.0%

ImportRel-0.1%0.0%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.8%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.4%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.4%1.4%1.3%0.1%0.7%





Poziom cenRel-0.1%-0.0%0.0%-0.0%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.0%-0.1%

InflacjaDyn-0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%




PKB, poziom

PKB, dynamika

Spoycie

Inwestycje

Eksport

Import

Zatrudnienie



Wydajno pracy

Poziom cen

Inflacja

Zasb infrastruktury



Wpyw realizacji polityki spjnoci na wielko PKB per capita wedug PPS (EU-27=100)Szacunkowy wpyw wydatkowania rodkw unijnych na PKB per capita(wedug siy nabywczej PPS, UE-27=100; w pkt proc. w odniesieniu do hipotetycznego scenariusza bez wykorzystania rodkw)

Wykres2

00.11

0.10.32

0.30.97

0.61.47

1.22.5

1.91.92

2.33.6

3.13.73

3.84.62

4.76.02

5.75.01

6.34.52

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

Zes3F

200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202004-20062004-2015







PKB, poziomRel0.1%0.2%0.4%0.9%1.9%2.6%3.2%4.3%5.4%6.6%8.1%9.0%9.5%9.3%9.1%8.9%8.7%0.2%3.6%

0.0%0.5%1.6%3.3%3.2%3.3%5.6%6.5%7.8%9.9%8.0%6.9%3.2%

PKB, dynamikaDyn0.130.060.180.570.930.680.641.050.981.191.440.780.47-0.18%-0.14%-0.18%-0.21%0.13%0.72%

0.000.461.241.71-0.160.152.340.871.332.02-1.87-1.060.94-0.36%-0.29%-0.37%-0.41%

SpoycieRel1.94%1.52%0.70%1.21%2.73%2.84%3.11%4.01%4.24%5.91%7.77%9.65%10.60%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.6%1.4%3.8%

0.20%0.20%0.20%0.20%1.03%2.50%5.08%6.03%7.26%9.23%6.80%5.36%1.98%

InwestycjeRel1.2%4.5%7.5%8.5%6.1%7.9%9.5%11.4%14.2%13.5%15.7%14.1%14.51%12.5%11.0%9.7%8.5%4.4%9.5%

0.0%2.3%7.0%13.6%12.0%10.9%17.6%18.5%22.1%28.1%18.6%13.2%1.51%

EksportRel-0.7%-0.7%-0.6%-0.1%1.0%1.9%2.5%3.7%4.9%6.2%8.0%9.0%9.8%9.7%9.6%9.4%9.2%-0.7%2.9%

ImportRel2.0%2.3%2.7%3.9%4.3%4.6%5.6%6.5%7.2%8.6%9.0%9.2%8.8%8.4%8.2%7.9%7.6%2.4%5.5%





pracujcy047167316259226393400476613357223


0.00%0.10%0.39%0.94%1.24%1.66%2.75%3.59%4.39%5.44%5.43%5.37%3.75%

Poziom cenRel1.1%1.2%1.3%1.6%1.3%1.1%1.2%1.1%0.9%0.9%0.3%0.1%-0.4%-0.5%-0.5%-0.6%-0.6%1.2%1.0%

InflacjaDyn1.1%0.1%0.1%0.3%-0.3%-0.2%0.2%-0.2%-0.2%0.0%-0.6%-0.3%-0.5%-0.1%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.4%0.0%




26.97%11.58%36.87%113.92%185.59%136.21%128.65%210.97%195.79%237.08%287.66%156.30%93.59%-0.36%-0.29%-0.37%-0.41%

PKB, poziom200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

ip0.00330.591,666.393,554.033,653.453,594.625,802.286,315.367,883.2610,560.437,026.384,920.24

rzl0.18128.58743.961,616.231,276.591,240.312,481.462,651.923,070.153,872.202,399.601,625.11

bsp0.00460.32918.731,698.451,085.12837.751,684.261,811.752,111.412,675.131,667.061,132.71

razem0.18919.493,329.086,868.706,015.155,672.689,968.0010,779.0313,064.8217,107.7611,093.047,678.06

0.00134858490.00057886070.00184360250.00569619140.00927967060.00681067520.00643250120.01054827940.00978935310.011853790.01438279490.00781510670.0046796826

0.00269716970.00115772130.00368720510.01139238280.01855934120.01362135050.01286500240.02109655880.01957870610.023707580.02876558980.01563021340.0093593652

0.13485848670.05788606570.18436025360.56961913910.92796705980.6810675230.64325012071.05482794240.97893530681.1853790021.43827949230.78151066790.467968258

0.26971697340.11577213130.36872050721.13923827821.85593411971.36213504591.28650024132.10965588481.95787061352.3707580042.87655898461.56302133590.9359365159


mld zmld eurmln eur

2004923237236,6670.180.00%654293658.690156654.29365869020.28%

2005981252251,538919.490.37%2050123569.716612050.12356971660.82%

20061,051269269,4873,329.081.24%4239610251.60994239.61025160991.57%

20071,116286286,1546,868.702.40%6261667652.855476261.66765285552.19%

20081,191305305,3856,015.151.97%6531665364.04096531.66536404092.14%

20091,272326326,1545,672.681.74%6020338047.294126020.33804729411.85%

20101,358348348,2059,968.002.86%10446965658.941210446.96565894123.00%

20111,450372371,79510,779.032.90%11160896470.588211160.89647058823.00%

20121,549397397,17913,064.823.29%13535555294.117613535.55529411763.41%

20131,654424424,10317,107.764.03%17651630588.235317651.63058823534.16%

20141,766453452,82111,093.042.45%11477517647.058811477.51764705882.53%

20151,886484483,5907,678.061.59%7915529411.764717915.52941176471.64%

4,153,07797945.7936149132.36%


(w tys.)

bez NSROz NSRO

Spoycie200614,508.614,508.60.0

200714,609.414,631.422.0

200814,719.914,821.8101.9

200914,702.314,951.3249.0

201014,690.315,190.5500.2

201114,677.915,289.5611.7

201214,670.015,410.2740.2

201314,667.215,590.2923.0

201414,669.515,407.1737.5

201514,677.215,286.0608.8

201614,690.114,997.7307.6

201714,708.214,953.8245.6

201814,731.514,929.9198.4

201914,760.114,929.5169.5

202014,793.914,940.3146.4

200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

14508.614609.4314719.9314702.2714690.3314677.8814670.0214667.1614669.5414677.1914690.0814708.1914731.5214760.0714793.87

14508.614631.4114821.8414951.2915190.5215289.5315410.215590.1815407.0515285.9514997.6614953.7614929.8814929.5414940.3

Inwestycje0.022.0101.9249.0500.2611.7740.2923.0737.5608.8307.6245.6198.4169.5146.4

Eksport

Import

Zatrudnienie



Wydajno pracy

Poziom cen

Inflacja

Zasb infrastruktury



200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015


NPR i NSRO0.00%2.27%7.02%13.55%11.99%10.89%17.56%18.52%22.07%28.08%18.58%13.18%

200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015


NPR i NSRO0.00%0.10%0.39%0.94%1.24%1.66%2.75%3.59%4.39%5.44%5.43%5.37%

NPR+NSRO

0

47

167

316

259

226

393

400

476

613

357

223

Zes3F

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

&A

Page &P


DANE

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

&A

Page &P


zasoby ludzkie


Zes3K

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

pkt proc

Zes2F

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

Zes2K

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


pkt proc

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00



00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00



tys. osb

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


0.1348584867

0.0578860657

0.1843602536

0.5696191391

0.9279670598

0.681067523

0.6432501207

1.0548279424

0.9789353068

1.185379002

1.4382794923

0.7815106679

0.467968258

pkt proc

0.0013485849

0.0019282262

0.0037753836

0.0094930803

0.0188608435

0.0257999738

0.0323984334

0.0432884606

0.0535015797

0.0659895662

0.0813214755

0.0897721182

0.0948719058

%

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

%

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


tys. osb

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

%

0.13485848670

0.05788606570.46

0.18436025361.24

0.56961913911.71

0.9279670598-0.16

0.6810675230.15

0.64325012072.34

1.05482794240.87

0.97893530681.33

1.1853790022.02

1.4382794923-1.87

0.7815106679-1.06

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

pkt proc

0.00134858490

0.00192822620.0045

0.00377538360.0163

0.00949308030.033

0.01886084350.0315

0.02579997380.0329

0.03239843340.056

0.04328846060.0648

0.05350157970.0784

0.06598956620.0993

0.08132147550.0796

0.08977211820.0686

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

wskaniki zatrudnienialiczba pracujcychstopa bezrobociawydajnoc pracy UE-27=100tempo PKBpoziom PKBpoziom UE-27

model MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Hermin

2004-0.10.12004-252120040.2-0.120040.20.020040.10.220041.1%1.1%20040.00.1

20050.00.2200510612005-0.1-0.420050.10.120050.10.420051.2%1.2%20050.10.3

20060.20.72006451762006-0.3-1.120060.10.420060.31.320061.7%1.7%20060.31.0

20070.51.020071232522007-0.7-1.520070.20.620070.60.920072.3%2.3%20070.61.5

20080.71.620081904072008-1.1-2.520080.41.120080.82.020083.3%3.3%20081.22.5

20091.00.920092642422009-1.5-1.520090.81.120091.0-1.320093.7%3.7%20091.91.9

20100.92.020102485042010-1.4-3.020101.31.920100.53.020104.4%4.4%20102.33.6

20111.41.820113854532011-2.2-2.720111.52.220111.10.020115.4%5.4%20113.13.7

20121.52.120124055402012-2.3-3.320122.12.720120.91.420126.1%6.1%20123.84.6

20131.92.720134896892013-2.8-4.220132.63.520131.12.220137.2%7.2%20134.76.0

20142.21.620145714242014-3.3-2.620143.23.620141.3-2.120148.1%8.1%20145.75.0

20152.11.120155352892015-3.0-1.720154.13.620150.7-1.120158.6%8.6%20156.34.5

20162.00.02016516122016-2.9-0.120164.63.220160.5-2.820168.7%8.7%20166.82.9

20171.80.12017445212017-2.5-0.120175.03.120170.0-0.220178.6%8.6%20177.02.9

20181.80.12018446232018-2.5-0.120185.13.120180.0-0.220188.5%8.5%20187.12.9

20191.80.12019437232019-2.4-0.120195.23.02019-0.1-0.220198.4%8.4%20197.22.8

20201.70.12020429232020-2.3-0.120205.32.92020-0.1-0.220208.3%8.3%20207.32.8

200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202004-20062004-2015







PKB, poziomRel-0.0%-0.0%0.1%0.3%0.5%0.7%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.5%1.8%1.9%2.0%2.0%1.9%1.9%1.8%0.0%0.8%

PKB, dynamikaDyn-0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.2%

SpoycieRel-0.0%-0.2%-0.4%-0.1%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.7%0.8%1.2%1.5%1.8%1.9%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%-0.2%0.5%

InwestycjeRel-0.1%1.1%2.5%3.5%2.4%2.1%2.8%3.3%3.9%4.2%4.0%3.6%2.9%2.5%2.2%1.9%1.7%1.2%2.8%

EksportRel0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.5%0.8%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.6%1.9%2.1%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.1%2.1%0.0%0.9%

ImportRel-0.1%-0.0%0.1%0.3%0.5%0.5%0.7%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.4%1.4%1.4%-0.0%0.7%





Poziom cenRel-0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.1%-0.0%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.0%-0.1%

InflacjaDyn-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.1%-0.1%0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%




PKB, poziom

PKB, dynamika

Spoycie

Inwestycje

Eksport

Import

Zatrudnienie



Wydajno pracy

Poziom cen

Inflacja

Zasb infrastruktury



200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202004-20062004-2015







PKB, poziomRel0.1%0.3%0.8%1.4%2.3%3.1%3.8%5.0%6.0%7.3%8.8%9.7%10.2%9.9%9.8%9.5%9.3%0.4%4.1%

PKB, dynamikaDyn0.1%0.2%0.4%0.7%0.9%0.8%0.7%1.1%1.0%1.2%1.4%0.8%0.4%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%0.3%0.8%

SpoycieRel2.1%1.5%1.3%1.8%3.0%3.3%3.8%4.7%4.9%6.6%8.5%10.5%11.5%11.6%11.6%11.5%11.4%1.6%4.3%

InwestycjeRel0.4%4.7%7.8%8.2%8.2%10.0%10.2%12.2%15.4%15.0%17.2%15.2%15.0%13.0%11.4%10.0%8.7%4.3%10.4%

EksportRel-0.8%-0.6%-0.3%0.4%1.4%2.4%3.0%4.3%5.5%6.8%8.7%9.7%10.5%10.3%10.2%10.0%9.8%-0.6%3.4%

ImportRel2.3%2.7%3.4%4.2%5.0%5.3%6.3%7.2%8.0%9.4%9.7%9.9%9.4%9.0%8.7%8.4%8.1%2.8%6.1%





Poziom cenRel1.2%1.3%1.5%1.5%1.4%1.1%1.3%1.1%0.9%0.9%0.4%0.1%-0.4%-0.5%-0.5%-0.6%-0.6%1.4%1.1%

InflacjaDyn1.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%-0.1%-0.3%0.1%-0.2%-0.2%0.0%-0.6%-0.3%-0.5%-0.1%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.5%0.0%




PKB, poziom

PKB, dynamika

Spoycie

Inwestycje

Eksport

Import

Zatrudnienie



Wydajno pracy

Poziom cen

Inflacja

Zasb infrastruktury



200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202004-20062004-2015







PKB, poziomRel-0.0%0.1%0.3%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.3%1.6%1.8%1.9%2.0%2.0%1.9%1.9%1.8%0.1%0.9%

PKB, dynamikaDyn-0.0%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.1%0.1%0.2%

SpoycieRel-0.1%-0.3%-0.1%0.1%0.3%0.5%0.6%0.8%0.9%1.2%1.5%1.8%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%-0.2%0.6%

InwestycjeRel-0.1%1.5%3.0%2.6%2.7%2.8%3.2%3.5%4.1%4.4%4.1%3.5%2.7%2.3%2.0%1.8%1.6%1.5%2.9%

EksportRel0.0%0.1%0.3%0.5%0.7%0.9%1.0%1.3%1.5%1.7%2.0%2.1%2.2%2.2%2.1%2.1%2.0%0.1%1.0%

ImportRel-0.1%0.0%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.8%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.4%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.4%1.4%1.3%0.1%0.7%





Poziom cenRel-0.1%-0.0%0.0%-0.0%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.0%-0.1%

InflacjaDyn-0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%




PKB, poziom

PKB, dynamika

Spoycie

Inwestycje

Eksport

Import

Zatrudnienie



Wydajno pracy

Poziom cen

Inflacja

Zasb infrastruktury



Dziki funduszom unijnym ronie liczba pracujcych (w wieku 15-64, wtys. osb)W 2007 r. zaobserwowano znaczcy wpyw funduszy unijnych na liczb pracujcych bya ona wysza dziki funduszom unijnym o od 123 tys. (model MaMoR2) do 252 tys. (model HERMIN). Tendencja wzrostowa bdzie trwaa a do 2013-2014 r., kiedy to liczba osb pracujcych bdzie wysza o okoo 600 tys.

Wykres2

-2521

1061

45176

123252

190407

264242

248504

385453

405540

489689

571424

535289

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

Zes3F

200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202004-20062004-2015







PKB, poziomRel0.1%0.2%0.4%0.9%1.9%2.6%3.2%4.3%5.4%6.6%8.1%9.0%9.5%9.3%9.1%8.9%8.7%0.2%3.6%

0.0%0.5%1.6%3.3%3.2%3.3%5.6%6.5%7.8%9.9%8.0%6.9%3.2%

PKB, dynamikaDyn0.130.060.180.570.930.680.641.050.981.191.440.780.47-0.18%-0.14%-0.18%-0.21%0.13%0.72%

0.000.461.241.71-0.160.152.340.871.332.02-1.87-1.060.94-0.36%-0.29%-0.37%-0.41%

SpoycieRel1.94%1.52%0.70%1.21%2.73%2.84%3.11%4.01%4.24%5.91%7.77%9.65%10.60%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.6%1.4%3.8%

0.20%0.20%0.20%0.20%1.03%2.50%5.08%6.03%7.26%9.23%6.80%5.36%1.98%

InwestycjeRel1.2%4.5%7.5%8.5%6.1%7.9%9.5%11.4%14.2%13.5%15.7%14.1%14.51%12.5%11.0%9.7%8.5%4.4%9.5%

0.0%2.3%7.0%13.6%12.0%10.9%17.6%18.5%22.1%28.1%18.6%13.2%1.51%

EksportRel-0.7%-0.7%-0.6%-0.1%1.0%1.9%2.5%3.7%4.9%6.2%8.0%9.0%9.8%9.7%9.6%9.4%9.2%-0.7%2.9%

ImportRel2.0%2.3%2.7%3.9%4.3%4.6%5.6%6.5%7.2%8.6%9.0%9.2%8.8%8.4%8.2%7.9%7.6%2.4%5.5%





pracujcy047167316259226393400476613357223


0.00%0.10%0.39%0.94%1.24%1.66%2.75%3.59%4.39%5.44%5.43%5.37%3.75%

Poziom cenRel1.1%1.2%1.3%1.6%1.3%1.1%1.2%1.1%0.9%0.9%0.3%0.1%-0.4%-0.5%-0.5%-0.6%-0.6%1.2%1.0%

InflacjaDyn1.1%0.1%0.1%0.3%-0.3%-0.2%0.2%-0.2%-0.2%0.0%-0.6%-0.3%-0.5%-0.1%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.4%0.0%




26.97%11.58%36.87%113.92%185.59%136.21%128.65%210.97%195.79%237.08%287.66%156.30%93.59%-0.36%-0.29%-0.37%-0.41%

PKB, poziom200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

ip0.00330.591,666.393,554.033,653.453,594.625,802.286,315.367,883.2610,560.437,026.384,920.24

rzl0.18128.58743.961,616.231,276.591,240.312,481.462,651.923,070.153,872.202,399.601,625.11

bsp0.00460.32918.731,698.451,085.12837.751,684.261,811.752,111.412,675.131,667.061,132.71

razem0.18919.493,329.086,868.706,015.155,672.689,968.0010,779.0313,064.8217,107.7611,093.047,678.06

0.00134858490.00057886070.00184360250.00569619140.00927967060.00681067520.00643250120.01054827940.00978935310.011853790.01438279490.00781510670.0046796826

0.00269716970.00115772130.00368720510.01139238280.01855934120.01362135050.01286500240.02109655880.01957870610.023707580.02876558980.01563021340.0093593652

0.13485848670.05788606570.18436025360.56961913910.92796705980.6810675230.64325012071.05482794240.97893530681.1853790021.43827949230.78151066790.467968258

0.26971697340.11577213130.36872050721.13923827821.85593411971.36213504591.28650024132.10965588481.95787061352.3707580042.87655898461.56302133590.9359365159


mld zmld eurmln eur

2004923237236,6670.180.00%654293658.690156654.29365869020.28%

2005981252251,538919.490.37%2050123569.716612050.12356971660.82%

20061,051269269,4873,329.081.24%4239610251.60994239.61025160991.57%

20071,116286286,1546,868.702.40%6261667652.855476261.66765285552.19%

20081,191305305,3856,015.151.97%6531665364.04096531.66536404092.14%

20091,272326326,1545,672.681.74%6020338047.294126020.33804729411.85%

20101,358348348,2059,968.002.86%10446965658.941210446.96565894123.00%

20111,450372371,79510,779.032.90%11160896470.588211160.89647058823.00%

20121,549397397,17913,064.823.29%13535555294.117613535.55529411763.41%

20131,654424424,10317,107.764.03%17651630588.235317651.63058823534.16%

20141,766453452,82111,093.042.45%11477517647.058811477.51764705882.53%

20151,886484483,5907,678.061.59%7915529411.764717915.52941176471.64%

4,153,07797945.7936149132.36%


(w tys.)

bez NSROz NSRO

Spoycie200614,508.614,508.60.0

200714,609.414,631.422.0

200814,719.914,821.8101.9

200914,702.314,951.3249.0

201014,690.315,190.5500.2

201114,677.915,289.5611.7

201214,670.015,410.2740.2

201314,667.215,590.2923.0

201414,669.515,407.1737.5

201514,677.215,286.0608.8

201614,690.114,997.7307.6

201714,708.214,953.8245.6

201814,731.514,929.9198.4

201914,760.114,929.5169.5

202014,793.914,940.3146.4

200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

14508.614609.4314719.9314702.2714690.3314677.8814670.0214667.1614669.5414677.1914690.0814708.1914731.5214760.0714793.87

14508.614631.4114821.8414951.2915190.5215289.5315410.215590.1815407.0515285.9514997.6614953.7614929.8814929.5414940.3

Inwestycje0.022.0101.9249.0500.2611.7740.2923.0737.5608.8307.6245.6198.4169.5146.4

Eksport

Import

Zatrudnienie



Wydajno pracy

Poziom cen

Inflacja

Zasb infrastruktury



200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015


NPR i NSRO0.00%2.27%7.02%13.55%11.99%10.89%17.56%18.52%22.07%28.08%18.58%13.18%

200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015


NPR i NSRO0.00%0.10%0.39%0.94%1.24%1.66%2.75%3.59%4.39%5.44%5.43%5.37%

NPR+NSRO

0

47

167

316

259

226

393

400

476

613

357

223

Zes3F

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

&A

Page &P


DANE

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

&A

Page &P


zasoby ludzkie


Zes3K

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

pkt proc

Zes2F

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

Zes2K

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


pkt proc

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00



00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00



tys. osb

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


0.1348584867

0.0578860657

0.1843602536

0.5696191391

0.9279670598

0.681067523

0.6432501207

1.0548279424

0.9789353068

1.185379002

1.4382794923

0.7815106679

0.467968258

pkt proc

0.0013485849

0.0019282262

0.0037753836

0.0094930803

0.0188608435

0.0257999738

0.0323984334

0.0432884606

0.0535015797

0.0659895662

0.0813214755

0.0897721182

0.0948719058

%

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

%

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


tys. osb

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

%

0.13485848670

0.05788606570.46

0.18436025361.24

0.56961913911.71

0.9279670598-0.16

0.6810675230.15

0.64325012072.34

1.05482794240.87

0.97893530681.33

1.1853790022.02

1.4382794923-1.87

0.7815106679-1.06

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

pkt proc

0.00134858490

0.00192822620.0045

0.00377538360.0163

0.00949308030.033

0.01886084350.0315

0.02579997380.0329

0.03239843340.056

0.04328846060.0648

0.05350157970.0784

0.06598956620.0993

0.08132147550.0796

0.08977211820.0686

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

%

wskaniki zatrudnienialiczba pracujcychstopa bezrobociawydajnoc pracy UE-27=100tempo PKBpoziom PKBpoziom UE-27inwestycjenakady brutto

model MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Herminmodel MaMoR2model Hermin

2004-0.10.12004-252120040.2-0.120040.20.020040.10.220041.1%1.1%20040.00.120040.01.22004-0.11.1

20050.00.2200510612005-0.1-0.420050.10.120050.10.420051.2%1.2%20050.10.320050.82.220055.12.0

20060.20.72006451762006-0.3-1.120060.10.420060.31.320061.7%1.7%20060.31.020061.05.020060.74.5

20070.51.020071232522007-0.7-1.520070.20.620070.60.920072.3%2.3%20070.61.520071.73.020073.42.4

20080.71.620081904072008-1.1-2.520080.41.120080.82.020083.3%3.3%20081.22.520081.46.32008-1.05.4

20091.00.920092642422009-1.5-1.520090.81.120091.0-1.320093.7%3.7%20091.91.920091.2-7.420090.0-6.1

20100.92.020102485042010-1.4-3.020101.31.920100.53.020104.4%4.4%20102.33.620101.19.32010-0.18.9

20111.41.820113854532011-2.2-2.720111.52.220111.10.020115.4%5.4%20113.13.720111.7-4.120113.4-2.1

20121.52.120124055402012-2.3-3.320122.12.720120.91.420126.1%6.1%20123.84.620122.11.320122.43.1

20131.92.720134896892013-2.8-4.220132.63.520131.12.220137.2%7.2%20134.76.020131.83.32013-0.35.4

20142.21.620145714242014-3.3-2.620143.23.620141.3-2.120148.1%8.1%20145.75.020142.0-10.020141.5-4.5

20152.11.120155352892015-3.0-1.720154.13.620150.7-1.120158.6%8.6%20156.34.520151.4-8.02015-1.5-2.5

20162.00.02016516122016-2.9-0.120164.63.220160.5-2.820168.7%8.7%20166.82.920161.3-11.02016-0.1-5.0

20171.80.12017445212017-2.5-0.120175.03.120170.0-0.220178.6%8.6%20177.02.920170.9-6.52017-1.4-0.1

20181.80.12018446232018-2.5-0.120185.13.120180.0-0.220188.5%8.5%20187.12.920180.6-6.52018-1.0-0.1

20191.80.12019437232019-2.4-0.120195.23.02019-0.1-0.220198.4%8.4%20197.22.820190.3-6.02019-1.00.0

20201.70.12020429232020-2.3-0.120205.32.92020-0.1-0.220208.3%8.3%20207.32.820200.1-5.52020-0.9-0.1

200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202004-20062004-2015







PKB, poziomRel-0.0%-0.0%0.1%0.3%0.5%0.7%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.5%1.8%1.9%2.0%2.0%1.9%1.9%1.8%0.0%0.8%

PKB, dynamikaDyn-0.0%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.2%

SpoycieRel-0.0%-0.2%-0.4%-0.1%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.7%0.8%1.2%1.5%1.8%1.9%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%-0.2%0.5%

InwestycjeRel-0.1%1.1%2.5%3.5%2.4%2.1%2.8%3.3%3.9%4.2%4.0%3.6%2.9%2.5%2.2%1.9%1.7%1.2%2.8%

EksportRel0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.5%0.8%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.6%1.9%2.1%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.1%2.1%0.0%0.9%

ImportRel-0.1%-0.0%0.1%0.3%0.5%0.5%0.7%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.4%1.4%1.4%-0.0%0.7%





Poziom cenRel-0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.1%-0.0%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.0%-0.1%

InflacjaDyn-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.1%-0.1%0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%




PKB, poziom

PKB, dynamika

Spoycie

Inwestycje

Eksport

Import

Zatrudnienie



Wydajno pracy

Poziom cen

Inflacja

Zasb infrastruktury



200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202004-20062004-2015







PKB, poziomRel0.1%0.3%0.8%1.4%2.3%3.1%3.8%5.0%6.0%7.3%8.8%9.7%10.2%9.9%9.8%9.5%9.3%0.4%4.1%

PKB, dynamikaDyn0.1%0.2%0.4%0.7%0.9%0.8%0.7%1.1%1.0%1.2%1.4%0.8%0.4%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%0.3%0.8%

SpoycieRel2.1%1.5%1.3%1.8%3.0%3.3%3.8%4.7%4.9%6.6%8.5%10.5%11.5%11.6%11.6%11.5%11.4%1.6%4.3%

InwestycjeRel0.4%4.7%7.8%8.2%8.2%10.0%10.2%12.2%15.4%15.0%17.2%15.2%15.0%13.0%11.4%10.0%8.7%4.3%10.4%

EksportRel-0.8%-0.6%-0.3%0.4%1.4%2.4%3.0%4.3%5.5%6.8%8.7%9.7%10.5%10.3%10.2%10.0%9.8%-0.6%3.4%

ImportRel2.3%2.7%3.4%4.2%5.0%5.3%6.3%7.2%8.0%9.4%9.7%9.9%9.4%9.0%8.7%8.4%8.1%2.8%6.1%





Poziom cenRel1.2%1.3%1.5%1.5%1.4%1.1%1.3%1.1%0.9%0.9%0.4%0.1%-0.4%-0.5%-0.5%-0.6%-0.6%1.4%1.1%

InflacjaDyn1.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%-0.1%-0.3%0.1%-0.2%-0.2%0.0%-0.6%-0.3%-0.5%-0.1%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.5%0.0%




PKB, poziom

PKB, dynamika

Spoycie

Inwestycje

Eksport

Import

Zatrudnienie



Wydajno pracy

Poziom cen

Inflacja

Zasb infrastruktury



200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202004-20062004-2015







PKB, poziomRel-0.0%0.1%0.3%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.3%1.6%1.8%1.9%2.0%2.0%1.9%1.9%1.8%0.1%0.9%

PKB, dynamikaDyn-0.0%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.1%0.1%0.2%

SpoycieRel-0.1%-0.3%-0.1%0.1%0.3%0.5%0.6%0.8%0.9%1.2%1.5%1.8%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%-0.2%0.6%

InwestycjeRel-0.1%1.5%3.0%2.6%2.7%2.8%3.2%3.5%4.1%4.4%4.1%3.5%2.7%2.3%2.0%1.8%1.6%1.5%2.9%

EksportRel0.0%0.1%0.3%0.5%0.7%0.9%1.0%1.3%1.5%1.7%2.0%2.1%2.2%2.2%2.1%2.1%2.0%0.1%1.0%

ImportRel-0.1%0.0%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.8%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.4%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.4%1.4%1.3%0.1%0.7%





Poziom cenRel-0.1%-0.0%0.0%-0.0%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.3%-0.0%-0.1%

InflacjaDyn-0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%




PKB, poziom

PKB, dynamika

Spoycie

Inwestycje

Eksport

Import

Zatrudnienie



Wydajno pracy

Poziom cen

Inflacja

Zasb infrastruktury



Wpyw realizacji polityki spjnoci na stop bezrobociaSzacunkowy wpyw wydatkowania rodkw unijnych na stop bezrobocia(w pkt proc. w odniesieniu do hipotetycznego scenariusza bez wykorzystania rodkw)

Wykres2

0.2-0.13

-0.1-0.36

-0.3-1.06

-0.7-1.52

-1.1-2.46

-1.5-1.46

-1.4-3.04

-2.2-2.73

-2.3-3.28

-2.8-4.16

-3.3-2.56

-3-1.74

model MaMoR2

model HERMIN

Zes3F

200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202004-20062004-2015







PKB, poziomRel0.1%0.2%0.4%0.9%1.9%2.6%3.2%4.3%5.4%6.6%8.1%9.0%9.5%9.3%9.1%8.9%8.7%0.2%3.6%

0.0%0.5%1.6%3.3%3.2%3.3%5.6%6.5%7.8%9.9%8.0%6.9%3.2%

PKB, dynamikaDyn0.130.060.180.570.930.680.641.050.981.191.440.780.47-0.18%-0.14%-0.18%-0.21%0.13%0.72%

0.000.461.241.71-0.160.152.340.871.332.02-1.87-1.060.94-0.36%-0.29%-0.37%-0.41%

SpoycieRel1.94%1.52%0.70%1.21%2.73%2.84%3.11%4.01%4.24%5.91%7.77%9.65%10.60%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.6%1.4%3.8%

0.20%0.20%0.20%0.20%1.03%2.50%5.08%6.03%7.26%9.23%6.80%5.36%1.98%

InwestycjeRel1.2%4.5%7.5%8.5%6.1%7.9%9.5%11.4%14.2%13.5%15.7%14.1%14.51%12.5%11.0%9.7%8.5%4.4%9.5%

0.0%2.3%7.0%13.6%12.0%10.9%17.6%18.5%22.1%28.1%18.6%13.2%1.51%

EksportRel-0.7%-0.7%-0.6%-0.1%1.0%1.9%2.5%3.7%4.9%6.2%8.0%9.0%9.8%9.7%9.6%9.4%9.2%-0.7%2.9%

ImportRel2.0%2.3%2.7%3.9%4.3%4.6%5.6%6.5%7.2%8.6%9.0%9.2%8.8%8.4%8.2%7.9%7.6%2.4%5.5%





pracujcy047167316259226393400476613357223


0.00%0.10%0.39%0.94%1.24%1.66%2.75%3.59%4.39%5.44%5.43%5.37%3.75%

Poziom cenRel1.1%1.2%1.3%1.6%1.3%1.1%1.2%1.1%0.9%0.9%0.3%0.1%-0.4%-0.5%-0.5%-0.6%-0.6%1.2%1.0%

InflacjaDyn1.1%0.1%0.1%0.3%-0.3%-0.2%0.2%-0.2%-0.2%0.0%-0.6%-0.3%-0.5%-0.1%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.4%0.0%




26.97%11.58%36.87%113.92%185.59%136.21%128.65%210.97%195.79%237.08%287.66%156.30%93.59%-0.36%-0.29%-0.37%-0.41%

PKB, poziom200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

ip0.00330.591,666.393,554.033,653.453,594.625,802.286,315.367,883.2610,560.437,026.384,920.24

rzl0.18128.58743.961,616.231,276.591,240.312,481.462,651.923,070.153,872.202,399.601,625.11

bsp0.00460.32918.731,698.451,085.12837.751,684.261,811.752,111.412,675.131,667.061,132.71

razem0.18919.493,329.086,868.706,015.155,672.689,968.0010,779.0313,064.8217,107.7611,093.047,678.06

0.00134858490.00057886070.00184360250.00569619140.00927967060.00681067520.00643250120.01054827940.00978935310.011853790.01438279490.00781510670.0046796826

0.00269716970.00115772130.00368720510.01139238280.01855934120.01362135050.01286500240.02109655880.01957870610.023707580.02876558980.01563021340.0093593652

0.13485848670.05788606570.18436025360.56961913910.92796705980.6810675230.64325012071.05482794240.97893530681.1853790021.43827949230.78151066790.467968258

0.26971697340.11577213130.36872050721.13923827821.85593411971.36213504591.28650024132.10965588481.95787061352.3707580042.87655898461.56302133590.9359365159


mld zmld eurmln eur

2004923237236,6670.180.00%654293658.690156654.29365869020.28%

2005981252251,538919.490.37%2050123569.716612050.12356971660.82%

20061,051269269,4873,329.081.24%4239610251.60994239.61025160991.57%

20071,116286286,1546,868.702.40%6261667652.855476261.66765285552.19%

20081,191305305,3856,015.151.97%6531665364.04096531.66536404092.14%

20091,272326326,1545,672.681.74%6020338047.294126020.33804729411.85%

20101,358348348,2059,968.002.86%10446965658.941210446.96565894123.00%

20111,450372371,79510,779.032.90%11160896470.588211160.89647058823.00%

20121,549397397,17913,064.823.29%13535555294.117613535.55529411763.41%

20131,654424424,10317,107.764.03%17651630588.235317651.63058823534.16%

20141,766453452,82111,093.042.45%11477517647.058811477.51764705882.53%

20151,886484483,5907,678.061.59%7915529411.764717915.52941176471.64%

4,153,07797945.7936149132.36%


(w tys.)

bez NSROz NSRO

Spoycie200614,508.614,508.60.0

200714,609.414,631.422.0

200814,719.914,821.8101.9

200914,702.314,951.3249.0

201014,690.315,190.5500.2

201114,677.915,289.5611.7

201214,670.015,410.2740.2

201314,667.215,590.2923.0

201414,669.515,407.1737.5

201514,677.215,286.0608.8

201614,690.114,997.7307.6

201714,708.214,953.8245.6

201814,731.514,929.9198.4

201914,760.114,929.5169.5

202014,793.914,940.3146.4

200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

14508.614609.4314719.9314702.2714690.3314677.8814670.0214667.1614669.5414677.1914690.0814708.1

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