-
102 1
402.52B
450961
1 7 7 0.57 14
2 5 0 1 0 0.8
3 0
5 8 10 16
3 69.0)BA(P,35.0)A|B(P,4.0)P(A === U , =)B(P 0.14 0.43 0.75
0.59
4 60.0)B(P,50.0)A(P == 30.0)BA(P =I A B 90.0)BA(P =U
5 ABC F1, F2, F3, F4
20%, 25%, 15%, 40% F1, F2, F3, F4 1.5%,
2%, 1%, 3% ABC F1 F3
0.0215 0.5581 0.3390 0.2093
6 (, 2) 10
= 3 = 2 x = 7 = 1 = 4 x = 5
= 1 = 1 x = 5 = 3 = 2 x = 1
7 X Y 9 Var(Y) 16, Var(X) == )YX( 5 5 7 25
8
coefficient of correlation
covariance
9 25 = 70= 20= 73
= 784= 74coefficient of variation
11.2% 1120% 0.4% 40%
10 X (2,10)
= 5P(X < 6) = 0.5 = 6P(X < 6) = 0.5
= 6P(X < 6) = 0.6 = 7P(X < 6) = 0.4
11 0.01
0.0388 0.4362 0.9606 0.9994
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4509 62
12 50
normal distribution binomial distribution
Poisson distribution uniform distribution
13 population 80 sample 32
standard error
0.5477 5.477 0.05477 54.77
14 0.3 0.5
0.4664 0.9328 0.0336 0.0672
15 t
16 90%
17 point estimatorpopulation
parameter
18 160 14.51 0.09
99.5%
(14.49, 14.53) (14.46, 14.56) (14.50, 14.52) (13.51, 15.51)
19 95%confidence intervalconfidence coefficient
0.485 1.96 0.95 1.645
20 0.05 = 5
0.1 = 5 0.01 = 5
5 95% 5 90%
21 3 90% 0.05
165 228 301 322
22 2 3 10
10 2 d s
5%
025.0,9t10
s3d
05.0,9
10
3 tsd
>
025.0,9t9
sd
>
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450963
23
64 36
44 41
128 72
2.0 1.5 1.96 1.645
24 18
18 18
500 600
180 150
pooled sample proportion
0.305 0.300 0.027 0.450
25 20 50.81 52.41 8.4 4.0
p = P(F20,20 > 2.1) p = P(F19,19 > 2.1)
p = P(F19,19 > 4.41) p = 2*P(F19,19 > 4.41)
26 3 50 MSWmean square within group
50 70 20
40 80 15
60 90 25
50 80 20 66 2700 75 2200
27 ANOVA table
SS MS F
300 ii 100 iv 2 120 6 i iii 660 i= 120 ii= 3 iii= 6 iv= 3
28 5 5 20 5
F
5, 20 4, 20 5, 95 4, 95
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4509 64
29 coefficient of determination 1 SSEsum of square
due to error
0 1 0 < SSE < 1
30
=n
1i2
i )yy( =n
1i2
i )yy( =n
1i2
ii )yy( =n
1i ii yy
31 coefficient of determination
1 1 0 1
32 yx
75SSE,225SSR,17n,x8.112y ===+= 2683.0S 1b = 3,000
$17,400 $5,412 $66 $66,000
33 0 F test statistic
3 45 48 50
34 32 0 t test statistic
180 1.96 6.708 0.555
35 10 11
90 100 110 21
36 300
A B C D E F
46 42 56 64 48 44degrees of freedom
6 5 50 300
37 10%level of significancecritical value
9.24 10.64 63.17 118.5
38 36 p p-value
0.01 (0.01, 0.025 (0.05, 0.10) 0.10
39 Winters
moving average time series regression
residual analysis exponential smoothing
40 time series
seasonality operational variations
trend cycles
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450965
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4509 66
