03 Iran s Current Economic Situation and Korea s Strategy for … · 2012-12-04 · 1. Current Situation of Key Industries 1) Petrochemical Industry Petrochemical industry including

韓國中東學會論叢, 第32-2號

韓國中東學會, 2011, 81-103

Iran's Current Economic Situation and

Korea's Strategy for Expanding Cooperation

with Iran

이란의 경제환경과 한국-이란경제협력 확대방안

1)

정영규(Jeong, Young-Kyu)*

Contents

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Iran's Current Economic Situation and Characteristics

Ⅲ. Iran's Industrial Policies

Ⅳ. Iran's Current Industrial Situation and Economic Exchange

Situation with Korea

Ⅴ. Strategies for Expanding Korea-Iran Economic Cooperation.

* Hyoup Sung University

82 韓國中東學會論叢第32-2號

이란의 경제환경과 한국-이란경제협력

확대방안

정영규(Jeong, Young-Kyu)

Hyup Sung University

석유와 천연가스의 생산과 수출이 주요 수입원인 이란경제는 1980년대

중반 이후 세계에서 가장 낮은 경제성장율을 기록하기도 하였으나 2000년 하

반기부터 시작된 국제유가의 지속적인 상승으로 최근까지 경제성장율이 5%

대 이상의 고도성장을 지속하고 있다. 경제협력차원에서 이란은 우리나라와

매우 중요한 의미를 부여하고 있다. 특히, 산업구조 및 에너지 분야에서 우리

나라와는 상호보완적인 경제협력 파트너로서 의미가 아주 크다.

첫째, 이란은 세계경제 전체에서 차지하는 비중은 작지만 원유생산 및 수

출에서 세계2위를 차지하고 있기 때문에 세계경제에 미치는 파급효과는 매우

크다. 이러한 이유 때문에 중국과 일본은 이란의 에너지 개발에 대한 투자를

증가시키고 있고, 앞으로도 한국 및 외국인의 투자가 지속적으로 증가할 것으

로 보인다. 둘째, 이란은 한국과 매우 상호 보완적인 산업구조를 가지고 있어

경제협력의 가능성이 매우 높다. 이러한 경제구조는 에너지산업뿐만 아니라

제조업 육성을 도모하고 있으므로 우리나라의 자본, 기술, 경험이 매우 필요

하다. 그리고 무역측면에서 이란은 원유를 수출하고 있고, IT, 전자 및 기타

공산품수입을 지속적으로 증가시키고 있어 한국의 입장에서 매우 중요한 경

제파트너로서 부상하고 있다.

우리나라는 이란과 경제적 측면에서 상호 보완성이 매우 높은 만큼, 원유,

상품무역, 직접투자 이외에도 다양한 경로를 통하여 경제협력을 지속적으로

강화하고 있다.

주제어 : 이란의 산업 및 경제구조, 에너지산업, 한국과의 경제협력

Iran's Current Economic Situation and Korea's Strategy for Expanding Cooperation with Iran : 정 영 규 83

Ⅰ. Introduction

A recent increase in international oil price is making great

contributions to activating the economies of countries in Middle East.

As of the end of 2009, these countries occupy 71% of oil deposits,

37.2% of oil output, 46.2% of oil exports, 46% of natural gas deposits,

15.1% of output and 16.3% of exports in the world.

The economy of Middle East, whose key revenue comes from

production and export of oil and natural gas, suffered the lowest

economic growth rate in the world since the mid 1980s2), but it has

been maintaining a rapid growth of above 5% till recently because of a

continued rise of international oil price started with the end of 2000.

Especially our country, which accomplished economic growth by

advancing into construction market in Middle East from the 1970s till

recently, is expected to have a favorable opportunity that our

companies, large and small, will enter the markets because recent high

oil prices are making economies there prosperous.

Among the countries in Middle East, as Iran is the second place in

the world's output and exports of oil and natural gas3), is located in a

favorable place in trying to advance into countries of Central Asia, and

is the largest market with a high level of education and economic

growth potential in the region, it is a very important country as a

bridgehead which Korea must establish to advance into Middle East.4)

Thus, this study performs an in-depth analysis of Iran's economy, a

2) During this period, an annual average growth rate of per capita income in Middle East was only 1% or so.

3) Oil exports account for 80-90% of its total exports.

4) Two oil crises in the 1970s worked as serious threats to the global economy, but brought economic opportunities to do investments in the infrastructure and increase their product revenue to oil producing countries.


country with a very great economic value and importance among our

cooperation countries in the Gulf Region, and examines the possibility

of economic cooperation between both countries.

Ⅱ. Iran's Current Economic Situation and

Characteristics

As an important producer and exporter of crude oil and natural gas

in Middle East, Iran's current economic situation and characteristics

are as follows.

1. Characteristics of Iran's Economy

In many aspects, Iran has economic characteristics different from

undeveloped countries as well as advanced countries. Iran's economic

characteristics can be summarized as follows: First, Iran has 7.5 times

as large a territory as the Korean Peninsula and abundant natural

resources(the world's second largest deposits of crude oil and natural

gas).

Iran's economy has a structural problem in that its dependence on

oil is too high, but the country has been maintaining a rapid economic

growth of above 5% on high oil prices continued ever since 2000.

Second, as Iran has been using an economic growth strategy of

fostering non-petroleum industries to shed its oil dependent economic

structure since a long time ago, non-petroleum manufacturing

industries like steel, automobile, agricultural products processing, etc.

have become developed unlike other countries in the region. Oil and


natural gas industry accounts for approximately 25% of its total GDP.

Third, as the government intervenes in economic activities

extensively5) and has a tax system which lacks direct tax like income

tax or value added tax, or has very low direct tax, if any, energy

exports are a key source of its government revenue, indeed.6) Thus,

public expenditures and subsidies spent by the government cause its

budget deficit rate to increase continuously.

Fourth, political instability and geopolitical risk have a great ripple

effect on the economy. Iran saw a political upheaval like Khomeini

Revolution in 1980, and recent military tension surrounding nuclear

issues is threatening its economic stability.

2. Iran's Economic Situation

Although Iran suffered economic difficulties due to the aftermath of

long wars, the country with a population 69 million people as of 2010

is a power in Middle East and its per capita income has increased to

4,870$ as of the end of 2009 on high oil prices.

1) Economic Situation

Iran has been maintaining a rapid economic growth of 5 to 7%

5) This is also considered as a direct result of its oil dependent economic structure; meanwhile, all the governments in the Gulf Region are characterized by allocation state or rentier state. That is, the government sells natural resources like oil or natural gas and distributes the profit to the people. If the government directly develops oil fields and distributes to the people profits earned through management and sale of oil, the government cannot but play a critical role in all areas including production, trade and distribution.

6) The ratio of energy industry in the government's finance and export is greater compared to that in GDP.


annually on high oil prices continued since 2000. In 2008 when high

oil prices were continued, the country attained an economic growth of

6.5%.

2) Industrial Structure

In 2009, component ratios in GDP by industries are as follows:

service 43.9%, manufacturing 45.2%, agriculture 10.9%, etc. The ratio

of petroleum industry in GDP drastically decreased to 10 to 20% in

recent years from 30 to 40% in the 1970s, but as oil exports still

occupy 80% of its total revenue, petroleum industry acts as an axis of

the economy and foreign direct investment is also concentrated mostly

on industries associated with petroleum.

3) Trade

As US economic sanctions against Iran are continued, Iran is trying

to strengthen economic exchange with countries in Europe and Asia.

Key countries exporting goods to Iran in 2008 include Japan (18.6%),

China (9.8%), Italy (6.1%), Korea (5.5%), South Africa (5.4%), etc. and

key countries importing goods from Iran include Germany (12.4%),

France (8.6%), Italy (7.5%), China (7.6%), UAE(7.4%), etc.

Iran's key economic indicators

unit 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

GDP100

million1,941 1.041 1,122 - 1,373 1,261 1,948 2,861 3,373

per capita GDP

$ - - - - 1,991 1,750 3,223 3,949 4,600

realGDP growth

rate% 6.1 3.5 6.5 3.0 6.7 5.0 5.7 7.8 6.5

population million million - - - 69 69 68.6 69.1 69.9


output10

thousandbld

380.8 365.0 390.0 - 387.9 - - -

crude oil

the volume

of export

10 thousand

bld260.5 - - - - - - -

exports billion $ 24.2 18.5 14.6 - - - - -

inflation rate % 14.0 14.0 15.8 - 15.6 14.6 10.2 17.1 25.6

unemployment rate

% 14.6 - - - - - - 12.3 12.5

exports billion $ - 23.7 28.1 - 20.9 60 60.0 97.4 100

imports billion $ - 18.1 23.7 - 17.0 40 40.9 56.5 68.5

current balance

billion $ 126 52.5 3.7 40.0 23.9 15 14.0 34.0 23.9

total foreign debts

billion $ 87 70.8 9.2 - 125.9 17 14.8 21.0 13.9

foreign exchange reserves

billion $ - - - - - - 46.3 82.0 96.5

exchange rate(annual average)

IR/dollar 8,095 7,908 7,925 8,305 9,093 9,115 9,242 9,281 9,429

Sources : MEED, EIU Country Report, etc.

Note : The exchange rate is as of Dec. 31, 2008.

Ⅲ. Iran's Industrial Policies

Iran's economic policies have the following characteristics: First, the

country is modifying its industrial structure from petroleum centered

structure into non-petroleum and manufacturing centered structure.

Second, the country is actively pushing ahead with the privatization of

state-owned enterprises in order to remove inefficient factors of those

enterprises and raise the efficiency of the whole economy.


1. Industrial Policies

The first characteristic of Iran's industrial policies is its effort to

reform and evolve its industrial structure from petroleum centered

structure into non-petroleum and manufacturing centered structure.

The core of these policies lies in maintaining profits earned by selling

natural resources like oil and natural gas and simultaneously fostering

non-petroleum and manufacturing industries in case these natural

resources will be exhausted.7)

International oil prices, which have surged more than three times

to 75$ from 20$ a barrel after 2000, have brought economic benefits

to Iran, but the government hopes that oil prices will rise gradually

instead of surging rapidly and causing great shocks to its economy.8)

The government is the most concerned about rapid plunge of oil

prices which might cause decisive damages to its domestic economy

and threaten the stabilization of its political system because of

possible decrease of subsidies and unemployment problems.

What is the most noticeable in Iran's recent energy policy is a

change from controlling oil output into increasing its production

capacity. As an increase in oil consumed by China and India is

expected to continue for some time, Iran is investing a large amount

of capital in oil development to meet those demands.

The Iranian government is also trying to foster service industry.

7) Fostering manufacturing industry, agriculture and service industry is not only important in preparing for the future but also absolutely needed to solve unemployment problem emerging as the most serious socioeconomic issue.

8) In contrast, as a sudden surge in oil prices might cause recession of the global economy or a decrease in oil demand by prompting the development of alternative energy sources, OPEC countries including Iran do not like a sudden surge in oil prices.


That's because fostering manufacturing industry and agriculture as well

as service industries including finance industry, tourism, logistics

industry, business service, etc is important in preparing for the future

and absolutely needed to solve unemployment problem emerging as the

most serious socioeconomic issue.

2. Economic Reform Policies

What is the most characteristic in Iran's economic reform policies

is its active effort to remove inefficient factors of state-run

enterprises and privatize them. Poor performances of Iranian

government's effort to diversify its industrial structure over 20 years

result from problems in its economic system.

As the government plays an overwhelming economic role as rentier

state and private sectors are scarcely developed yet, industrial policies

led by the government cannot but have limitations.

And in an environment where the government makes sure that the

people can enjoy a certain standard of living by providing jobs and

subsidies, there are few incentives provided for employment, job

training or human resource development. Insufficient workforce

accumulated by human capital and insufficient incentives for labor

activities are considered as the most serious obstacle to the success

of industrial structure diversification policy.9)

9) Institutions making corporate investment difficult, untransparent and unfair administrative procedures and corruption are also among serious obstacles. These problems acted as factors which hindered the investment of local and foreign investors in a decisive manner. For this reason, foreign direct investment remained at a low level till 1990s.


Public Enterprise Privatization Results and Institutions

related to Foreign Direct Investment

privatization results

year 2003 2004

enterprise Khouzestan Cement Company Iran Marine Industries Company

size(million $)

246 21

related to foreign investment change of institutions

lawfor protection of foreigner

investmentand for promoting foreigner investment (enacted in 2002)

content non-petroleum industry promotion of foreigner investment

petroleum industry investment protection

source : EIU Country profile; Meed

To cope with structural problems, Iran promoted policies of

reducing the government's roles in the economy, activating private

economy by opening its economy, cutting down subsidies, fostering

large and small companies, etc. Iran's effort to lift sanctions associated

with foreigners' investment is also one of important changes in

economic policies after 2002.

3. Energy Development Policies

1) Petroleum

Iran with the world's second largest oil deposits of 132,5 billion

barrels (11.2% of the world's deposits) produced 4,4 million barrels a

day in 2008, which was the largest output but Saudi Arabia in the Gulf

region. Among this output, crude oil was 4 million barrels. Given that

Iran's maximum daily production capacity is 4,2 million barrels, its

extra production capacity is estimated to be as little as 200,000


barrels.10)

The ratio of natural loss in an existing oil field is 8∼11%, which

means that 300 thousand to 500 thousand barrels of oil is estimated to

be evaporated everyday. Thus, if Iran is to increase its oil production

capacity in accordance with a worldwide increase in oil demand, the

country must explore and develop new oil fields and increase its

investments in improving recovery rate of existing oil fields.

As Iran produced 6 million barrels per day in 1974 and has rich

deposits, the country is expected to be capable of increasing its

production capacity with investments. Now Iran aims at expanding its

production capacity to 4.8 to 5 million barrels a day by 2010.

However, given the reduction rate of oil produced in existing oil

fields11), its financial condition and technological level, it is a

dominant view that Iran cannot accomplish its goal without

attracting foreign capital and technology in a large scale.

Iran's constitution forbids a foreign company to own natural

resource deposits, but the government allows a foreign oil company to

advance into Iran through a buy-back contract in order to foster

foreign direct investment in petroleum industry since the late 1990s.

According to this contract, Iran branch of a foreign oil company

signs a development contract with National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC)

and makes investments to develop an oil field; and NIOC pays working

expense, cost of capital and a small amount of risk premium with

produced oil or natural gas. If the contract term expires in 5 to 7

years, operation right of the oil field is transferred to NIOC.

10) Many experts believe that if Iran fails to develop new oil fields, its oil production capacity is likely to decrease.

11) A large part of Iran's oil production facilities were destroyed due to the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the 8 year War Against Iraq, but its production capacity is recently on the increase .


After buy-back contract system was introduced, ENI (Darkhovin Oil

Field) from Italy, Total (Doroud Oil Field) from France, a Japanese

consortium led by Inpex (Azadegan Oil Field), CNPC (MIS Oil Field)

from China, etc. participated in the project for renovating existing oil

fields.

However, NIOC and a foreign consortium led by Inpex, a Japanese

oil company, signed a two billion dollar investment contract for

renovating Azadegan Oil Field which is considered to have 2.6 million

barrel deposit as the largest oil field discovered in 30 years, but the

project is being delayed because of change of Iranian regimes and

financial problems.

2) Natural Gas

Iran, which has the world's second largest oil deposits (15.7% of

the world's deposits), is an importer of natural gas because of

importing gas from Turkey, but the country is expected to become a

major exporter of natural gas.12) Iran invested more than 15 billion

dollars for Saufa Gas Field Development Project, which is Iran's

largest energy project.

This project is going to be carried on by dividing into 30 phases.

In the end of 2005, project developers for 18 phases were chosen and

projects from phase 1 to phase 5 are already producing gas. Gas

produced in early phases of the project will be used to meet domestic

demand. This gas will be used to expand domestic demand by

transforming domestically consumed oil into natural gas or to raise the

pressure by inserting it into oil fields.

12) 내용이 없습니다.


Energy Development Plan

oil production capacity(barrels/day)

natural gas production capacity

characteristics

4.8 million (in 2010)800 million ㎥ a day

(in 2010)

foreign technology and capital are needed to accomplish the goal of oil

production

3. Policies for Promoting Free Economic Zone

Although there were great breakthroughs in the integration of the

global economy with recent activated international trade and capital

movement, Iran's economy featured very closed characteristics like

varied government regulations, protective policies, norms behind the

times, etc.

As non-tariff barriers and administrative expediency are prevalent,

it is estimated that transaction cost except tax and tariff amounts to

11% of the total amount of trade, indeed. While Iran badly needed to

attract overseas capital and technology for developing its national

economy, this poor environment for investment acted as a barrier to

foreign direct investment.

Current Situation of Free Economic Zone (in 2008)

the number of free economic

zones

the number

of compani

es

employment(thousand people)

employment ratio compared to the total labor force

key industries

6 2,435 - - leather & textile, shoes, finance & legal service

source


Ⅳ. Iran's Current Industrial Situation and Economic

Exchange Situation with Korea

1. Current Situation of Key Industries

1) Petrochemical Industry

Petrochemical industry including tire, plastic container, textile,

paint, detergent, glue, chemical fertilizer intermediate materials is an

industrial area in which Iran has a competitive edge. To move away

from economic structure depending excessively on crude oil, Iran

selected petrochemical industry as its strategic industry and attracted

overseas capital of 11.7 billion dollars.

This industry produces chemical goods amounting to 8.5 billion

dollars and exports 5.5 billion dollars of goods every year. The

country plans to increase its output more than three times and to hold

6% of the domestic market and 32% of the Middle East market in the

future. As petrochemical products can replace metal materials, the

market is forecast to become larger rapidly.

2) Energy Industry

Iran's energy industry mostly referred to as oil and gas is operated

exclusively by state-run enterprises. In spite of forbidding foreign

companies to participate in its own petroleum industry, Iran has been

trying to attract foreign direct investment since 1989.

3) Textile Industry

Textile industry employing 110 thousand Iranians plays a vital role

in the economy of Iran. As 50% of textile machinery in the country


are run-down and import substitution is impossible, Iran imports all the

required textile machines amounting to 40 million dollars.

4) Automobile Industry

In consideration of the effect which automobile industry has on its

national economy, Iran is promoting the establishment of joint

automobile companies including car parts as its national project for

strengthening its technology and military power.

Automobile companies there manufacture Peugjeot, Pride, Musso,

Verna, Rio, Maxima, etc in the country. As of the end of 2009, 60% of

10 million vehicles running in the country are rundown, so there is a

great demand for new vehicles.

Iran's Current Situation of Automobile Production

이란의 자동차 생산현황

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2002년 2003년 2004년 2005년 2006년

소형

중형


Iran's automobile output, especially that of small cars continues to

increase. In 2006, the Iranian government signed a contract for

establishing a joint automobile company which manufactures Samand, a

car brand produced within Egypt and Syria, and Kia Pride and built the

foundation for exporting vehicles.

2. Current Situation of Economic Exchange with Korea

1) Recent Trade Volume

Our country's exports to Iran amounted to $4.842.560.000 in 2008

and $3.991.900.000 in 2009. Meanwhile, the country's imports from

Iran accounted for $8.223.060.000 in 2008 and $5.745.750.000 in 2009.

Starting with 2008, all indicators including export, import, trade

balance, trade volume, etc. tend to decrease.

Current Situation of Trade Volume between Korea and Iran

2006 2007 2008 20092010(Jan-A

ug)

exports 2559 3266 4343 3992 3169

19.50% 27.60% 33% -8.10% -34.60%

imports 5049 6482 8226 5746 5095

42.80% 28.40% 26.90% -30.10% -49.50%

trade balance

2490 3216 3881 1754 1926

78.60% 29.20% 20.70% -54.80 0%

trade volume

7608 9748 12566 9738 8264

34.0% 27.60% 29.40% -22.50% -15.20%

source: kotis

Our country's trade with Iran, which enjoyed unsought gains and

booms because of economic sanctions of the United states, UN and


EU against Iran, started to decrease. On the other hand, the upswing

in exports of steel products including steel plate for manufacturing

vehicles, car parts, and synthetic resins contributed to increased

exports to Iran.

2) Trading Items

Our country's key exports include steel products, transportation

machinery, petrochemical goods, home appliances, etc., whereas key

imports include crude oil, LPG, other petrochemical products, fruits,

etc.

3) Korean Residents in Iran

As of the end of 2009, a total of 525 Koreans reside in Iran.

Among the people, 80% is visitors and the others are students and

emigrants.

Ⅴ. Strategies for Expanding Korea-Iran Economic

Cooperation

1. Direction of Economic Cooperation

With regard to economic cooperation, Iran sees Korea as a very

important partner. Especially from a perspective of industrial structure

and energy, Iran is very important to us as a mutually complementary

economic cooperation partner.

First, Iran, which occupies a small part of the global economy, is

the second largest producer and exporter of crude oil. As a result,


Iran's influence on the global economy is considerably great.

For this reason, China and Japan continue their strategies of

securing independent energy sources, even though the countries are

closely linked to the United States in terms of politics and economy.

Particularly China and Japan are expanding their investments for

energy development in Iran; and investments by Korea and other

countries are also expected to increase continuously.

Second, as Iran has a mutually complementary industrial structure

to us, both countries are most likely to mutually benefit from economic

cooperation. Iran's economic structure aiming at fostering

manufacturing industry as well as energy industry absolutely needs our

country's capital, technology and experience.

And with regard to trading, as Iran exports crude oil to Korea and

imports more and more Korean industrial products including IT and

electronic goods, Korea is emerging as a very important economic

partner to Iran.

2. Strategy and Methodology of Economic Cooperation

As Iran is mutually complementary with us from a economic

perspective, Korea is continuously strengthening cooperation with Iran

in varied areas in addition to crude oil. goods trade and direct

investment.

What is the most important for us in economic cooperation with

Iran is a long-term policy for securing crude oil in a stable way.

Japan and China, two neighboring countries of ours, have been

investing a considerable amount of money in oil field development

projects of Iran so that they can secure crude oil in a stable way.

Second, technological support is an extension of economic


cooperation. Our country strengthening economic cooperation in

accordance with Iran's policy of sophisticating industrial structure is

forecast to further expand economic cooperation associated with

technology in the future. Especially in recent years, as Iran's requests

for technology cooperation in IT and electronics industry are

increasing, technology cooperation in these areas are forecast to

increase continuously.

Third, construction industry is also an area for economic

cooperation between the two countries, As construction demand in Iran

increases explosively on its rapid economic growth, our country is

actively participating in varied construction projects.

Fourth, as mentioned above, economic cooperation between the two

countries is possible in varied areas like finance, construction, IT,

harbor, logistics, etc. Until now, Korea-Iran economic cooperation was

limited to three areas of energy import, goods export, construction &

plant contract.

However, as Iran's economic development strategy includes varied

areas of industry, Korea needs to diversify economic cooperation

areas. In accordance with Iran's policies for fostering service industry

including finance, real estate development, logistics, tourism, business

service, medical service, etc., Korea needs to actively examine the

possibility of cooperation and participation in these areas.

Fifth, it is desirable to consider Iran's political economic situation

and push ahead with economic cooperation case by case at the level

of private corporation. As public sector occupies larger part of Iran's

economy and decision making is concentrated in the sector, it is

effective to approach a case after another in a different way.

Sixth, the government needs to transform its assistance for

companies entering Iran into direct assistance. If the government can


provide direct support for a company advancing into Iran, it will be a

more effective method. For example, if the government expands export

insurance or reduces benchmark policy interest rate for companies

advancing into Iran, it will be a very effective policy.

Seventh, the government needs to strengthen diplomatic policies

towards Iran. Especially summit diplomacy can serve as an opportunity

that the whole society including the government and companies can

upgrade understanding of and interest in Iran as well as raise trust in

bilateral relations. Therefore, the government needs to further

strengthen economic cooperation with Iran through summit diplomacy.


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정영규소 속 협성대학교 국제통상학과이메일 [email protected]

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