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8/13/2019 08 Slideshow DeRoo[1]
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Floods and droughts in Europe:Early warning, prevention & risk mapping
Ad de Roo
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WDNH research topics
Floods Forecasting (EFA!
"#$ ($onau! cenarios o% change (prevention!
"#E (Ele! "#' ('der!
$roughts onitoring and %orecasting (E$A! Risk mapping
Floods, $roughts, Forest Fires, )eatwaves Aimed at European overview
patial planning Future land use changes E%%ects on %lood*drought*%ire risk v+v+
limate change E%%ects on %loods & droughts
-sing .", $", )adley scenarios
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specifically developed to simulate floods in large European river basins
spatially distributed and grid-based
enabling the spatial variation of land use, soil properties and precipitation
COMBINATION OF GRID-BASED RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL
+ 1D HYDRODYNAMIC CHANNEL FLOW ROUTING MODEL
SPECIAL FEATURES (RESERVOIR OPERATIONS, LAKES, POLDERS)
USING INITIAL CONDITIONS OBTAINED USING WATER BALANCE MODEL
MODEL INPUT
soil data, land use, topography and
channel dimensions
meteorological variables as rainfall,
potential evapotranspiration and
temperature
MODEL OUTPUTthe main output is river discharge
any calculated variable can be reported
as either maps, time series of maps or time
series at selected point locations
THE LISFLOOD MODEL
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LISFLOOD
JRC Eu!"#$% D$&$
-Soil, Surface,
river catchment
system,
M#'# S&$ *$&$-River
dimensions
- Alert levels
+
,++
1+++
1,++
-+++
-,++
. / - 0 /+ - + ++ . / - 2/ + - + + + . / - , /+ - + ++ . / - 3/ + - + + + . / - 4/ + - + ++ . / - ./ + - + + + . / - 5/ + - + + + . / 0 +/ + - + + + . / 0 1/ + - + + +
D# ) )$ u / R!) ) 6 $u W7 & & #% ( # 8 T ! 8$ u R7 # ) $ D # ) * # % L $ ( # D#9 7 % L $ ( #/ U) &7 N : L : V 6 & $ ;$ / P $8 u #
R7;#
$7%
'$%$8#'#%&
R7;#
B$7%
M$%$8#'#%&
0
200
400
00
!00
"000
"200
"400
0 "00 20 0 #00 40 0 $00 00 %00
&7'#)"
&bserved
&riginal
Afforestation
M#! *$&$
-E'()*
-+)+-+(
F6!!*
7'u6$&7!% '#%&
R##;!7 &u*7#
S$$6# (JRC)
M!6*$u (CHMI)
P!6*# 7&
S&u*7#
(JRC)
F 7767& S& * D >& & *
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F#$7767&= S&u*= D!u8>& &!?$* !
Eu!"#$% D!u8>& A6#& S=' (EDAS)
Soil moisture development drought year "
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F#$7767&= S&u*= D!u8>&
. 'ase study
"$ uly "
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Daily soil moisture deelopment
oil suctionaveragedover /-9regions:
;55
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Drou&ht monitorin&: realtime soil moisture on We$
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,limate chan&e effects on floods - drou&hts
. Dsing "0-"2:m scenarios
from
B 5RD+E/'E +anish
(eteo nst, 1adley
'entre
B (a; 5lanc:-1amburg
. 5roducts
B D#&$76#* !;#;7#? !C67'$ 9>$%8#
##9& !% 6!!* $%*
*!u8>& 7% Eu!"#
B 'hanged *lood ris:
B 'hanged +rought ris:
+( change in average annual ma;imum daily precipitation
(ost areas in Europe are blue meaning they face an increase
. 'onsistent methodology
. >ransboundary analysis
. 5an-European hydrological model
combined 9ith
regional climate model
# l fl d h d
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#otential flood ha.ardmap of Europe
. (ethodology underdevelopment
. &ver-estimation of flood ha@ardin small tributary rivers
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/alidation:,omparison 0hine Atlas
and , Europeanflood ha.ard map
3apsheet 1"%
3ain. 4 Wies$aden
&D>8&&
. Dsing SR>( and ''(2
. Dsing 8S*8&&+-*5 for
flood ha@ard = inundation modelling
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C!7%# 155/
F6!!* H$$* M$"
by Elisabetta Genovese
E3posure to %lood ha=ard:historical analysis at E- level
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G!?7%8 #C"!)u# &! A6!!*) 7% Eu!"# (#&?##% 155+-+++
-"00
0
"00
200
#00
400
$00
00
KMD
E3posure to %lood ha=ard:historical analysis at E- level
Main developments occurred
in areas potentially effected
by flood
by Elisabetta Genovese
L ki t th f t
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$evelopment scenarios: hypotheses o% growth
)ighedium>owmportance ofmotor'ays
"ndustrial arearemain the same,
$emand %orcommercial and
services? land usedoules
"ndustrial arearemain the same,
$emand %orcommercial and
services? land usedoules
ame as %or the endo% @5?s
ndustrial%commerce andserices
$emand increases y
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Deelopment in Dresden ur$an area: simulationsusin& 387AND
Scenario A lo9 Scenario F baseline Scenario ' high
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9r$an deelopment in flood ha.ard areas in ,.echepu$lic
00
$0
"00
"$0
200
2000 'urrent trends
2020
Faseline
2020
(otor9ay
2020
>$
residential continuousresidential discontinuous
industrial areas
commercial
services
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8n&oin& and future challen&es
Estalish an improved data availaility: E-6F>''$67" (BR6C$/)!: historic and static hydrometeo data
-sing "/."RE principles "mproved caliration, validation
"$AD >"F>''$ A>ER9 (BR6C$/)!: realtime discharge (7R$! -pdating model simulations (data assimilation!
oil data (BR6ED!, currently 4, ;"$AR Guality! %or
%lood risk mapping (7E! 'ther satellite ased products (snow water eGuivalent, soil moisture!
-sing multi6model outputs, oth deterministic and proailistic(ensemles! to estimate %lood & drought proaility & uncertainty 9"77E * )E.EH
ommunication o% uncertainty (%lood proaility! to end6users andgeneral pulic
>inking climate change, land use changes with %lood & drought risk:inclusion o% %eedack mechanisms: E3ample >"F>''$ & '>A/$
E3amine the earliest possile moment to issue reliale warnings asedon multi6model and proailistic model outputs
-se o% monthly and seasonal %orecasts %or droughts
Applying and %urther development o% the tools outside Europe
!e" #ie:
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!e" #ie:
$%:&&'a(ra)-$a*ard#.jrc.i
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WDNH serice reuirements
European (access point! %or hydro6meteorological metadata Actively updated y countries & /) "ncluding access policy & distriution rights "ncluding pricing policy
)armoni=ation o% data speci%ications: 8ertical re%erence system in%o
Automated data6%low %rom data owner (/)! to application*user (e+g+EFA, E$A!
$issemination o% results: providing controlled access to weserviceswith results (e+g+ %orecasts, damage & risk mapping!
8isuali=e availale data per variale per timewindow per geographic area 8iew service to access topographic ackground in%ormation (e+g+ %lood
e3tent comined with critical in%rastructure, uildings, I! tandardi=ed download service %or %ast data delivery
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NS#E impact
"/."RE will provide %ree view servicesand on line access to critical in%rastructure
$i%%iculty in access criticalin%rastructure, uildings
"/."RE will:6'lige pulic odies to create metadata6ake sure that this metadata is madeavailale through catalog or we services6reate a European6wide access point %ordiscovery
)ydro6eteorologicalin%ormation*data hard to %ind
"/."RE will make data policies andlicenses transparent
.olicies %or )ydro6eteorologicalin%ormation*data hinder dataacGuisition
"/."RE will estalish harmoni=ed dataspeci%ications (e+g+, spatial re%erencesystems, grid!, including speci%ications %ortrans%ormation and e3change o%
in%ormation
9ime6consuming data conversion(%ormat, units, re%erence systems,etc+! time6consuming real6time datacollection
"/."RE will %acilitate the delivery o%products via secure, re6usale, we services
ensitive products (%orecasts, riskmaps, damage maps! need to edelivered to $7s and /)
NS#E solutionsSome pro$lems to $e addressed