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Status of global energy supply Crisis one: global warming Crisis two: energy security Status of energy supply in Taiwan Primary energy resource potentials, supply chain
and conversion technologies Sustainable energy use as a key against resource
& environmental crises
3
Status of global energy supply
4
Historical data & projected growth in worldwide population
5
Sources of world’s primary energy supply from 1850 to 1995
World energy use grew twelve-fold during 20st century Because of growing populations & expanded development, world
energy use over the 21st century may continue to grow four-fold even with substantial improvements in efficiency
6
Global annual primary energy demand 1971 – 2003 by region
7
Correlations between per capita GNP & per capita energy use
8
Global energy flows (EJ in 2004) with CO2 emissions from coal, gas
and oil combustion, as well as resources (vertical bars to the left)
9
Major global trade movements of crude oil in 2002
Fossil energy exporters: Middle East, Africa, Central & South America, Indonesia, former Soviet Union Importer: US, western Europe, Japan, East Asia
10
Major global trade movements of natural gas in 2002
11
Crisis one: global warming
12
Global trends in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion by region
13
Global-average radiative forcing estimates and ranges
14
CO2, CH4 and N2O Concentrations
- far exceed pre-industrial values- increased markedly since 1750 due to human activities
Relatively little variation beforethe industrial era
Human and Natural Drivers of Climate
Change
15
Crisis two: energy security
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Middle value for gas
Middle value for oil
Estimated duration of crude
oil & natural
gas reserves
17
Availability of worldwide fuel reserves in years
Note: estimated by the World Energy Council (WEC) and German Federal Ministry for Economy (GFME)
0 40 80 120 160 200
Uranium
Coal
Natural gas
Fuel oil
Ratios of 1990's reserves to production (years)
GFME
WEC
18
Status of energy supply in Taiwan
19
Energy flow 2005 in Taiwan
0.00
1.51 存貨變動自產 0.03
Oil Refining71.15
出口 15.76
國際航運 2.44
67.9871.15
進口62.47
3.18 *
40.55 非能源消費1.67
能源部門
住宅&商業部門
農業&其他部門
5.16
8.36
4.42
7.84
13.48
14.94
9.61
0.820.14
0.010.02
0.020.31
26.78
4.29
0.34
0.00
33.06
電能18.41
4.36
6.49
進口 38.85
5.15
Coke & Gas
0.77 存貨變動
0.40 抽蓄用電
1.77
8.94
10.31進口 9.28
自產 0.740.00 存貨變動
1.11存貨變動
Gasification
0.06 損耗誤差
6.67
0.52
0.04 損耗誤差
0.07 損耗誤差
42.65
36.73
8.59
1.24
1.77
8.54
原油及其產品
煤及煤產品
水力
核能
LNG
天然氣
1.34
29.76
7.51
0.54
3.87
8.53
3.88
2005 Taiwan Energy Flow (10 Gcal)
工業部門33.33
運輸部門14.70
發電部門51.47
A Draft by PY Hseih 2006 Dec
20
21
22
23
24
25
國內能源消費結構（能源別 )
26
27
28
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台灣能源安全與節能減碳之問題
國家 能源依賴度 (進口%)
人均CO2(噸/人年 )
核電比(%)
水力發電比 (%)
風力發電比(%)
台灣 98.2 11.41 17 3.4 0.07
丹麥 -53.6 8.77 0 0 18.2
德國 62 9.87 26 4.3 4.3
瑞典 38.5 5.64 46 46 0.5
日本 82.7 9.50 28 7.8 0.1
韓國 82.4 9.30 38 1.3 ~0
•各國均實施具有特色與自主考量的能源政策•台灣人均排放大於除美、加、澳以外的所有 OECD國家
資料來源： IEA, “Key World Energy Statistics”, 2007
30
台灣能源供需的問題
供給： 147.24 MKLOE
類別 %
石油 51.1
煤炭 32.1
天然氣 8.4
核能 8.0
再生 0.4
消費： 121.03 MKLOE
類別 %
工業 51.8
運輸 13.1
住宅 11.2
服務 10.1
能源 8.7
農業 0.9
非能源 4.3
高碳來源比例過高
工業比重極高
• 關鍵在能源與產業結構• 科技不能提供解答，但可支援管理與決策的落實
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Primary energy resource potentials, supply chain and conversion technologies
32
Global energy resources including potential reserves
Global supply amounted to 483 EJ in 2005 Resource potential of renewables totals 7569 EJ/yr, 16-fold of supply in 2005
33
Investment costs and penetration rates for PV, wind & bioethanol systems showing cost reductions of 20% due to technological development & learning experience for
every doubling of capacity once the technology has matured
34
Development of wind-generation costs based on Danish experience
35
Biomass sources from land used for primary production can be processed for energy with
residues
36
GHG emissions for alternative electricity-generation
systems
IGCC: Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle
37
Projected power-generating costs for actual and planned coal (C), gas (G) nuclear (N), wind (W) and
hydro (H) power plants with assumed capital interest rates of 5 or 10%
38
External costs of current and more advanced electricity systems associated with emissions from the operation of the power plant and the
rest of the fuel-supply chain
39
Sustainable energy use as a key against resource & environmental
crises
40
Emission scenarios
A1F1 1000 Fossil intensive • Rapid economic growth
• Introduction of new & efficient technologies
A1T 580 Non-fossil energy sources
A1B 710 Balance across all sources
A2 850 Regionally oriented economic development
B1 550 • Rapid change in economic structures toward a service & information economy with reduction in material intensity & introduction of clean technologies
• Global economic, social & environmental sustainability
B2 620 • Local solution• Intermediate economic development
41
Carbon in fossil fuel reserves & resources
42
IIASA world regions used in scenarios
43
Development of per-capita emission rights under contraction & convergence
44
Mtoe
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1990 2020 2050 2100
SolarHydroBiomassNuclearN. GasCoalOil
The global transition to non-fossil energy supply according to scenario from World Energy Council and International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis
45
Mtoe
Rapid growth required in the use of renewable energy sources
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1990 2020 2050 2100
Solar
Hydro
Biomass
46
1000
2000
3000
4000
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000GDP(billion 2000 US$)
CO2排放(Mton)
1960
1973
1999
歐盟 1960-1999 CO2排放與 GDP變化
產業結構與 CO2排放脫鉤
• 歐盟各國在第一次石油危機前，二氧化碳排放與 GDP呈正相關的成長，但是自 1973至 1999年之間，兩者即能夠「脫鈎」
• 以台灣的經濟發展條件，應可以分析並參照先進國家的產業能源相關變化，推行更積極的脫鈎計畫
47
Questions & discussions
