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1 Presentation by Harvey Kasin, Hypo Real Estate Bank International AG Bank Funding of Retail property November 2008

1 Presentation by Harvey Kasin, Hypo Real Estate Bank International AG Bank Funding of Retail property November 2008

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Page 1: 1 Presentation by Harvey Kasin, Hypo Real Estate Bank International AG Bank Funding of Retail property November 2008

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Presentation by Harvey Kasin, Hypo Real Estate Bank International AGBank Funding of Retail propertyNovember 2008

Page 2: 1 Presentation by Harvey Kasin, Hypo Real Estate Bank International AG Bank Funding of Retail property November 2008

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Introduction

׀ What is Property Lending?

׀ Retail Property Lending

׀ An Example

׀ Property Stats

Page 3: 1 Presentation by Harvey Kasin, Hypo Real Estate Bank International AG Bank Funding of Retail property November 2008

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What is property lending?

Lending a proportion of the cost of construction or value of a property ׀ Senior lending 0 – 75%׀ Mezzanine lending 75 – 85%׀ Stretched mezzanine 85%+

How we earn money׀ Margin׀ Fees׀ Profit share

Key Terms׀ LTV ׀ LTC׀ ISC׀ DSC׀ Exit Yield׀ Amortisation / Bullet

What happens when things go wrong?׀ Why?׀ LTV breach – market changes, income fall ׀ ISC breach – centre / tenant failure, vacancy׀ More serious than other types of Real Estate ׀ Receivership or administration

Page 4: 1 Presentation by Harvey Kasin, Hypo Real Estate Bank International AG Bank Funding of Retail property November 2008

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Retail Property London

Investment׀ Typical 75% LTV׀ Quality of Asset Manager / track record׀ Anchor tenants׀ Occupancy levels׀ Quality of scheme / mix of tenants׀ Retail hierarchy / competition׀ Rental income / value׀ Asset Management Opportunities

Development׀ Development experience and design team׀ Design / layout location position of key tenants׀ Procurement route׀ Cost management׀ Cost overrun guarantees׀ Period of loan / stabilisation׀ % pre let

Key Factors׀ Property on a ladder׀ Day 1 LTC/LTV׀ Cash flow assumptions made׀ Exit Yield

Page 5: 1 Presentation by Harvey Kasin, Hypo Real Estate Bank International AG Bank Funding of Retail property November 2008

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Retail Property London

Stand alone shop or parade׀ Quality of covenant׀ Rent & term of lease׀ Pitch & quality of town

In town shopping centre׀ Lot size׀ Competition ׀ Condition, capex׀ Quality of Asset Manager etc׀ Asset Management opportunities

Out of Town ׀ Planning׀ Environment׀ Car Parking

FOC Factory Outlet Centres׀ Demographic Profile׀ Quality of management׀ Partnerships of landlord & tenant

Page 6: 1 Presentation by Harvey Kasin, Hypo Real Estate Bank International AG Bank Funding of Retail property November 2008

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European Investment Market Prime Yields

Page 7: 1 Presentation by Harvey Kasin, Hypo Real Estate Bank International AG Bank Funding of Retail property November 2008

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European Investment Market Prime Rental Growth

Page 8: 1 Presentation by Harvey Kasin, Hypo Real Estate Bank International AG Bank Funding of Retail property November 2008

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November 2008

6.25%

7.81%

£150.80m

94%

£141.38m

0.75%

£8.85m

1.13

Bullet or Amort?

An example

A well experienced client approaches us to fund his purchase of the main shopping centre in well established strong town. The centre is considered by the market as a prime shopping centre.

November 2008

£10m

£12.5m

6.25%

7.81%

£150.8m

75%

£113.10m

3.7%

3.0%

£7.6m

1.31

Bullet or Amort?

June 2009

£10m

£7.5m

7.0%

5.25%

£134.65m

85%

£114.45m

3.0%

1.5%

£5.15m

1.95

Bullet or Amort?

March 2007

Rent £10m

ERV £12.5m

Cap Yield 5%

Reversionary Yield

6.25%

Value £188.5m

LTV 75%

Loan £141.38m

5 yr cost of finance

5.5%

Margin 0.75%

Interest Bill £8.85m

ISC 1.13

Bullet or Amort?

Page 9: 1 Presentation by Harvey Kasin, Hypo Real Estate Bank International AG Bank Funding of Retail property November 2008

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Development is proceeding faster in maturing/emerging markets

Page 10: 1 Presentation by Harvey Kasin, Hypo Real Estate Bank International AG Bank Funding of Retail property November 2008

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Retail investment volumes have remained low into 2008

Page 11: 1 Presentation by Harvey Kasin, Hypo Real Estate Bank International AG Bank Funding of Retail property November 2008

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Shopping Centre City / Town Opening date Total size of scheme sq ft

Total size of scheme sq m

Victoria Square Belfast March 2008 800,000 75,000

Houndshill Blackpool September 2008 398,000 37,000

Market Place Bolton September 2008 276,000 25,000

Cabots Circus Bristol September 2008 1,000,000 92,900

Grand Arcade Cambridge March 2008 450,000 42,000

Eden High Wycombe March 2008 550.000 51,000

High Cross Leicester September 2008 560,000 52,000

Liverpool One Liverpool May 2008 1,700,000 160,000

The Elements Livingstone October 2008 375,000 35,000

Westfield London October 2008 1,600,000 150,000

Trinity Square Nottingham November 2008 190,000 17,500

Eagles Meadow Wrexham October 2008 400,000 37,000

Union Square Aberdeen Autumn 2009 700,000 65,000

Arc (formerly known as the cattle market)

Bury St Edmonds Spring 2009 430,000 40,000

St David’s 2 Cardiff Autumn 2009 970,000 90,000

2008 Shopping Centre openings

Page 12: 1 Presentation by Harvey Kasin, Hypo Real Estate Bank International AG Bank Funding of Retail property November 2008

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Investment Market Summary

׀ Change in buyer profile – low geared Opportunity Funds or Vulture buyers

׀ Due Diligence and decision making significantly slower

׀ Continued Outward shift in vendors price expectations

׀ Distressed vendors and ‘Off market Discussions’

׀ Return to the market of some familiar names

׀ More attractive returns for property from lower Capital Value Base

׀ Re-pricing of risk-increased discount for Secondary Property

Page 13: 1 Presentation by Harvey Kasin, Hypo Real Estate Bank International AG Bank Funding of Retail property November 2008

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Retail Investment – The next Few Months

׀ Few buyers with access to significant equity

׀ Valuations generally continuing to fall

׀ Retailers Christmas trade will affect confidence in the sector

׀ Debt buyers unlikely to return in the very short term

׀ Opportunities exist for genuine buyers

Page 14: 1 Presentation by Harvey Kasin, Hypo Real Estate Bank International AG Bank Funding of Retail property November 2008

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Growth in shopping centre stock

Page 15: 1 Presentation by Harvey Kasin, Hypo Real Estate Bank International AG Bank Funding of Retail property November 2008

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Major retail investment deals Q1-3 2008