3.1 nh gi kt qu cc m hnh c bn Cc tranh lun ca nghin cu tp trung vo vic nh gi kt qu hi quy v bin ng sn lng v mc lm pht, n gin bi v y l nhng iu m cc nh lm chnh sch cn quan tm. Trong mt th nghim s b, chng ti kim tra c s tc ng ca cc cu hnh b 3 chnh sch ln mc tng thu nhp bnh qun u ngi bng cch s dng m hnh tiu dng tit kim ging nh 1 nghin cu ca Kose et al. (2009)17. C 3 phng php phn tch hi quy l, phng php pooled OLS (phng php bnh phng b nht kt hp tt c cc quan st), phng php hi qui bt bin - Fixed Effects (vi sai s chun c nhm theo tng quc gia) (Gii thch thm: hi quy bt bin - Mc ch hi quy fixed-effect loi b cc yu t khng quan st c trong hi quy, lm gim vn sai s), m hnh GMM (phng php dng c lng tham s trong thng k), kt qu l mang li l c s tng quan yu gia cc bin b 3 bt kh thi v thu nhp bnh qun u ngi cc nc pht trin v mt phn cc nn kinh t th trng mi ni. Mt trong nhng l do cho kt qu tng quan yu t vic cu hnh b 3 chnh sch bt kh thi trong m hnh hi quy tng trng c th l nhng s sp xp chnh sch lin quan n b 3 chnh sch bt kh thi nh hng ch yu n bin ng sn lng v lm pht, v sau gin tip tc ng ln tng trng sn lng. Mt nghin cu ca Hnatkovska v Loayza (2005) cho rng c mi tng quan nghch gia s bin ng ca kinh t v m v tng trng kinh t trong di hn, v mi tng quan nghch th hin rt r trong 2 thp k va qua. Tip theo chng ti s trnh by v tho lun nhng c lng v tnh hiu qu ca cu hnh b 3 chnh sch bt kh thi trn nhng vn kinh t v m khc c th l nhng bin ng, nh bin ng ca lm pht v mc ca lm pht. Note: Cc bin gii thch cho m hnh c lng bao gm thu nhp bnh qun u ngi, mc u t trung bnh so vi GDP, years of schooling (Barro and Lee, 2001), mctng dn s, mc m ca (t l XNK so vi GDP), tn dng t nhn (% so vi GDP) nh l 1 cng c o lng s pht trin ti chnh. Cc bin b 3 chnh sch bt kh thi cng ging nh vy.17