31 October – 2 September 2011

Young-Youn Park

Numerical Model Development Division, Korea Meteorological Administration

KMA report

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KMA global ensemble: ChangesOperation

period 2001.3.1 - 2003.11.1 - 2006.7.1- 2008.9.1- 2010.12- 2011.5-

Machine 1st (NEC SX5) 2nd (Cray X1E) 3rd (Cray XE6)

Data Asssim 2dOI → 3dOI

3dOI → 3dVar 3dVar 3dvar(self-

cycle)4dVar(from

40km model)

4dVar(from 25km model)

Model GDAPS (JMA GSM) UM 7.5(UKMO) UM 7.7

Horizontal Res T106 T213(60km) 40km

Vertical Res 21 30 40 50 70

Perturbation method

(Target area)Breeding(Global)

Breeding + Factor Rotation(NH)

ETKF(localized in

hor and vert)

ETKF*

Model error NO RP, SKEBRun per days 1 (12UTC) 2 (00, 12UTC) 2 (00, 12UTC)

Lead time(days) 10 10 10

Members 16 (16 members + 1 control) (16+1)*2 24

Post Processing NO Bias Correction (Bo Cui) NO

TIGGE data TIGGE data

Old EPS data: 16 Jan 2008 ~ 30 Nov 2010 No data since 1 Dec 2010

o because of network problem(too slow to ftp the new ensemble data ~ 64GB/day)

Tried two way: o To enhance N/W speed to ECMWF recently succeed

(80min/32GB) under testo To send data to NCAR using LDM difficulty in setting LDM

Changes in TIGGE data Resolution: (Operation 0.5625deg, TIGGE 1.25 deg) (0.5625, 0.375 deg) Size: old 10GB/day new 64GB/day(later 84GB/day)

Parameter 8 P levels * 5 par + gph at 50 hPa (OK) 4 pars (no q) 1 pt level (320K) * 1 par (pv) (X) OK 2 pv level * 3 parameter (X) pt (no u, v) Single level * 28 parameter (6 parameters)19 pars

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Other data Cyclone data: ftp://cxml:cxml@210.107.255.35

Not working after 30 Dec 2010 Security issue with IT team Will resume later …

Model description(metadata): ready to update

KMA’s verification statistics report(to LC on EPS verification):

Deterministic score: 200901- (NH), 201103-(TR, SH) CRPS: under checking if KMA use the same method as

instructed Reliability table parameters: 200901- (NH), 201103-(TR,

SH), T850, Z500, PMSL only

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KMA EPS Flow chart

Global 4DVarN512L70(25km)

Trim obstore

OPS(24M)

ETKF

UM ForecastN320L70M24(40km)

Trimmed obstore

varobs

IC Perturbations

Varobsobstore

analysis

Previous cycle(-12 hours)

Next cycle(+12 hours)

OPS background

ETKF background

OPS backgroundETKF background

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Summer 2009 (.5.23-6.25) : Z500 OP vs MOGREPS(40km, 90km)

RMSE & SPREAD(m) Z500(SH)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Lead Time (days)

RMSE

& S

PREA

D (m

)

RMSE_N320 SPREAD_N320

RMSE_N144 SPREAD_N144

CRPS Z500(SH)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Lead Time (days)

CRPS

CRPS_N320

CRPS_N144

MO(40km50L)MO(90km38L)OPER

RMSESPREAD

NH

SH

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Summer 2009 (.5.23-6.25) : T850, MSLP OP vs MOGREPS(40km, 90km)

MO(40km50L)MO(90km38L)OPER

RMSESPREAD

T850

MSLP

May 2011: 40km L50 vs L70

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