471 Midterm 2004

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

  • 8/10/2019 471 Midterm 2004

    1/12

    1

    Department of Civil Engineering

    ENCI 471: Introduction to Project Management

    MID-TERM EXAMINATION 2: Fall Term 2004(Nov. 25-2004)

    Instructors: Dr. George Jergeas and Dr. Janaka Y. Ruwanpura

    Duration of the Examination: 70 minutes

    Location:

    Instructions:

    1. Answer ALL questions.2. Ensure that YOUR NAMEis clearly and legibly printed on the Cover and the

    Second Pageof the Examination Paper.3. Ensure that YOUR UCIDis clearly and legible printed on the Second Pageof the

    Examination Paper.4. The Marks for each question are indicated.5. Show/write all the calculations and assumptions relevant to your answers.6.

    This is a CLOSED BOOK examination.7. Any handheld electronic calculator is strictly allowed to be used for computation

    purposes only.8. No cellular phones can be used during the examination for any purpose.9. You are STRICTLY reminded that the University of Calgary Examination

    Regulations regarding CHEATING policy.

    LAST NAME OF THE STUDENT: _______________________________________

    FIRST NAME OF THE STUDENT: ______________________________________

    Total 100 Marks /5

  • 8/10/2019 471 Midterm 2004

    2/12

    2

    ENCI 471: Introduction to Project Management

    MID-TERM EXAMINATION 2: Fall Term 2004

    (Nov 25-2004)

    UCID NUMBER: __________________________

    MARKING SCHEME

    Question Maximum Student

    1 402 10

    3 23

    4 27

    5 +/- 5

    TOTAL 100+/- 5

  • 8/10/2019 471 Midterm 2004

    3/12

    3

    Question 1

    Figure 1: Network Diagram for Design Project

    Table 1: Durations - Monte Carlo Simulation Results for Design Project

    Simulation

    Run

    Design

    A

    Design

    B

    Design

    C

    Path

    A

    Path

    B+C

    Critical

    Path

    Sorted

    CP

    Prob.

    1 33.04 15.84 13.42 33.04 29.26 33.04 24.20 0.1

    2 30.87 13.02 12.36 30.87 25.39 30.87 27.28 0.2

    3 32.71 8.66 11.17 32.71 19.83 32.71 28.45 0.3

    4 30.83 8.65 14.81 30.83 23.45 30.83 28.73 0.4

    5 29.15 11.15 10.41 29.15 21.56 29.15 29.15 0.5

    6 28.23 12.34 16.39 28.23 28.73 28.73 30.83 0.6

    7 21.71 13.73 10.47 21.71 24.20 24.20 30.87 0.7

    8 22.62 13.33 15.11 22.62 28.45 28.45 31.36 0.8

    9 29.53 14.95 16.41 29.53 31.36 31.36 32.71 0.9

    10 27.28 12.84 14.17 27.28 27.01 27.28 33.04 1

    a) What is the mean duration of the Project (7 Marks)?

    Take the average of the CP = 29.66

    b)

    What is/are the critical activity/activities in the network in Figure 1? Explainyour answer using facts (4 Marks).

    Criticality Index of Path A is 60%Criticality Index if B and C = 40%

    (Most critical is Act A).

    ProjectStart

    Design A

    Design B Design C

    ProjectFinish

  • 8/10/2019 471 Midterm 2004

    4/12

    4

    c) Develop a Cumulative Probability Density Curve (10 Marks)

    d) What is the project duration at 55% confidence level (3 Marks)?

    29.75 days (close to that) or less.

    e) What is the project duration at 90% confidence level (3 Marks)?

    32.71 days or less

  • 8/10/2019 471 Midterm 2004

    5/12

    5

    g) What is the probability of finishing the project between 28 and 31 days (5

    Marks)?

    Finishing in 28 days = 25% probability

    Finishing in 31 days = 72% probability

    Hence, 47% probability of finishing between 28 and 31 days (or close to 47%)

    h) If activity B is calculated using Uniform Distribution, what are the low and high

    values for Activity B? (5 Marks)

    Rnd # B

    0.98 15.84

    0.63 13.02

    0.08 8.66

    0.08 8.65

    0.39 11.15

    0.54 12.34

    0.72 13.73

    0.67 13.33

    0.87 14.95

    0.60 12.84

    Random Variate = L + Rnd x (H-L)

    Take any two situations

    12.84 = L + 0.6 x (H L)11.15 = L + 0.39 x (H L)

    L=8 and H=16

    i) Is this a risky project? If you are the consultant of the Monte Carlo Analysis, what

    is the figure will you quote to the owner based on the curve that you have developed

    in Part c above? Why? (3 Marks)

    The answer of this question is subjective. We will consider your individual answers if you

    have at least addressed some valid issues related to skewness, shape of the curve, benefitof taking the risk, tolerance of risk, etc.

    Somewhat risky because the Prob (50%) is 29,66 days. The lowest is 24.20 and highest is33.04. It is kind of skewed to the right, and as a result, I would select a figure above 50%.I would select 31 days which is 72% chance of completing the project.

  • 8/10/2019 471 Midterm 2004

    6/12

    6

    Question 2

    Dr. Ruwanpura provided Figure 2 and 3 to the Project Team after simulating their projectschedule on Developing a cost effective Parking Lot Search Tool for Drivers using

    Wireless Mobile Services.

    Figure 2: ______________________________

    Figure 3: ________________________________________

  • 8/10/2019 471 Midterm 2004

    7/12

    7

    a) What is the purpose of the Figure 2? How does this figure benefit the project

    team (3 Marks)?

    The purpose of the Figure 2 is to determine the confidence of finishing the project within

    any duration between the lowest and the highest range. For example, what is theprobability of finishing the project in x days or what is the duration at y% confidence.

    This will benefit the stakeholders to analyze the chances of completing the project in anyday and to determine their risk exposure. This figure also helps the team to determine aconfidence to complete the project based on the risks and uncertainties that they haveconsidered in inputting the ranges.

    b)

    What is the purpose of Figure 3? How does this figure benefit the projectteam (3 Marks)?

    The purpose of the Figure 3 is to identify the potential early completion benefit or delaycost of the project based on a Targeted completion day. For example, what is theloss/benefit if the project is completed in x days.

    This will benefit the stakeholders to justify whether their target duration is realistic ornot. It also helps to determine what the loss/benefit is and to develop alternative plans toeither determine better realistic target duration or to develop some mitigation strategies toachieve the intended duration on target. It also helps the stakeholders consider the impactof duration on the project cost/ benefit objective.

    NOTE to students: The answers (a) and (b) given above provide a guidance only. If you

    have answered them considering some of the ideas given above, you will get marks. Wewill look at each answer very carefully. We will consider your individual answers if you

    have at least address some valid issues

    c) What is the intended Target duration of the Project Team that was used to

    develop Figure 3 (2 Marks)?

    The curve crosses (Figure 3) at 47-48% probability from bottom which means 52 -53%from top. That means the probability of finishing the project in 52 or 53%/. Lets assume52% probability.

    Go to Figure 2 now: 52% confidence is 53 days or less (approximately)

    Hence Target Duration is 53 days (completion of the project within 53 days)

    d) By analyzing the graphs, the team leader is interested to finish the project in

    50 days. What would the early completion benefit or late completion cost

    due to this decision (2 Marks)?

    50 days means (from Fig 2) 23% confidence.

    Refer Fig 3 now. 23% from top means 77% crossing point. Draw a horizontal line thatcrosses the curve.

    There is an early completion cost saving of approximately $ 2,500.

  • 8/10/2019 471 Midterm 2004

    8/12

    8

    Question 3

    The Birdeyes Real Estate Co. owns 800 acres of undeveloped land on a scenic lake in theheart of the Ozark Mountains. In the past, little or no regulation was applied to newdevelopments around the lake. The lake shores are now dotted with vacation homes.

    Because of the lake of sewage service, septic tanks, mostly improperly installed, are inextensive use. Over the years, seepage from the septic tanks has resulted in a server waterpollution problem.

    To curb further degradation in the quality of water, county officials approvedstringent ordinances applicable to all future developments.

    1. Only single-, double-, and triple-family homes can be constructed, with thesingle-family homes accounting for at least 50% of the total.

    2. To limit the number of septic tanks, minimum lot sizes of 2, 3, and 4 acres arerequired for single-,double-,and triple-family homes, respectively.

    3. Recreation areas of 1 acre each must be established at the rate of one area per

    200 families.4. To preserve the ecology of the lake, underground water may not be pumpedfor house or garden use.

    The President of Birdeyes Real Estate is studying the possibility of developing thecompanys 800 acres. The new development will include single-, double-, and triple-family homes. It is estimated that 15% of the acreage will be consumed in the opening ofstreets and easements for utilities. Birdeyes estimates the returns from the differenthousing units as

    Housing Unit Single Double Triple

    Net return per unit ($) $ 10,000 $ 12,000 $ 15,000

    The cost of connecting water service to the area is proportionate to the number ofunits constructed. However, the county stipulates that a minimum of $100,000 must becollected for the project to be economically feasible. Additionally the expansion of thewater system beyond its present capacity is limited to 200,000 gallons per day duringpeak periods. The following data summarize the cost of connecting water service as wellas the water consumption assumption assuming an average size family:

    Housing Unit Single Double Triple Recreation

    Water service cost per unit

    ($) $ 1,000 $ 1,200 $ 1,400 $ 800Water consumption per unit(gal/day) 400 600 840 450

    a) Identify the decision variables (4 Marks), and objective function (4 Marks)?

  • 8/10/2019 471 Midterm 2004

    9/12

    9

    b) Write five (5) constraints other than non-negativity type constraints (15 Marks)?

  • 8/10/2019 471 Midterm 2004

    10/12

    10

    Question 4

    A surveying engineering company is engaged is four types of work: provincial control

    surveys, engineering surveys, cadastral surveys, federal geodetic surveys. This workcomes from two sources: private contracts, government contracts. The companys seniorengineer has complied statistics over a one year period on the amount of each type ofwork from each source and the profits accrued from each source. The surveyor has alsodetermined the limits on the amount of each type of work that the company handles in ayear. This date is set out in the following table.

    Source of Work

    Survey Type Private Contract Public Contract

    Job Limits

    (weeks per

    year)

    Provincial 0.1 0.2 10

    Engineering 0.3 0.2 20Cadastral 0.5 0 20

    Federal Geodetic 0 0.5 22

    Profits ($/week) $ 4,000 $ 5,000

    For example, the figures under Private Contract indicate that 10% of the companyswork from that source is provincial control, 30% is engineering, 50% is cadastral andthere are no federal geodetic surveys from that source, and the remaining 10% is notproductive in terms of profit. The average profit over one year from Private contractsis $ 4,000 per week. The job limit figures indicate the maximum amount of time that thecompany can devote to each type of work.

    a) Identify the decision variables (3 Marks), objective function (3 Marks) and theconstraints (6 Marks).

  • 8/10/2019 471 Midterm 2004

    11/12

    11

    b) Solve the problem using graphical method. What is the maximum Profit (15 Marks)?

  • 8/10/2019 471 Midterm 2004

    12/12

    12

    BONUS/PENALTY

    Question 5

    Answer the following questions. If you answer the questions correctly, you will get 1 markeach for each correct answer (bonus) and if your answer is wrong you will lose 1 Mark foreach incorrect answer (or partial answer). If you do not answer, you will not receive bonusor penalty.

    Write the first and the last names of the THREE lab partners of your lab group in ENCI 471class. If you spell the names incorrectly you will lose marks.

    a) _______________________________________________

    b) ______________________________________________

    c) ______________________________________________

    d) Dr. Ruwanpura demonstrated a simulation example for a tunnel construction project.What is the city/location of this construction project?

    ______________________________EDMONTON________________

    e) In the same tunnel example, Dr. Ruwanpura mentioned a problem related with________SURVEYORS_____________ who reduced the productivity of the workby coming late to work.