Upload
nelle-shelton
View
44
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
统计学导论. 湖南大学 金融与统计学院. 第十章 对比分析与指数分析. 第一节 对比分析法 第二节 指数的概念和种类 第三节 综合指数 第四节 平均指数 第五节 指数体系与因素分析 第六节 几种常见的经济指数 (自学). 第一节 对比分析 (简单,实用). 一、对比分析的意义 二、常用的对比分析方法 三、应用对比分析方法的原则. 一、对比分析的意义. 对比分析: 根据现象之间的客观联系,将两个有关的统计指标进行对比来反映数量上的差异或变化。 对比分析是统计分析中最简单、最常用的一种基本方法。 对比分析有两类方法: 相减的方法 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
P260
1%1%1
/
1.P2602.P260
60%50%-60%40%-50%20%-40%20%
%19952007200820021990
Sheet1
9-5
19901995200020062007
()3566035520422205609459305
()3.503.233.132.952.91
()1.981.871.681.531.54
(%)56.5757.8953.6751.8652.92
() ()1.771.731.861.931.89
()1516.214279.026295.9112719.1914908.61
1149.703390.214480.508766.9610234.76
22.5072.62246.24809.56940.72
15.6090.43128.38244.01348.53
328.41725.761440.782898.663384.6
#1510.164282.956279.9811759.4513785.81
()1278.893537.574998.008696.559997.47
693.771771.991971.323111.923628.03
170.90479.20500.46901.781042.00
60.86283.76565.29904.19982.28
108.45263.36374.49498.48601.80
25.67110.11318.07620.54699.09
40.51183.22426.951147.121357.41
112.26331.01669.581203.031329.16
66.57114.92171.83309.49357.70
(=100)
54.2550.0939.4435.7836.29
13.3613.5510.0110.3710.42
6.988.0211.3110.409.83
10.147.447.495.736.02
2.013.116.367.146.99
1.205.188.5413.1913.58
11.129.3613.4013.8313.29
0.943.253.443.563.58
1.9-17
2.2002
Sheet2
198519901995200020052007
52.2554.2550.0939.4436.6936.29
14.5613.3613.5510.0110.0810.42
4.796.988.0211.3110.189.83
8.6010.147.447.495.626.02
2.482.013.116.367.566.99
2.141.205.188.5412.5513.58
8.1711.129.3613.4013.8213.29
7.020.943.253.443.503.58
100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00
%1978-19851996 9-1919902008 9-25
Sheet1
9-25
%
199019952000200520062007
100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00
58.8058.6249.1345.4843.0243.08
7.776.855.755.815.946.00
17.3413.9115.4714.4916.5817.80
5.295.234.524.364.474.63
1.442.585.589.5910.2110.19
5.377.8111.1811.5610.799.48
3.253.245.246.586.776.52
0.741.763.142.132.232.30
199019952000200520062007
100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00
41.5941.1036.1436.1134.5934.97
11.7510.327.416.936.936.96
21.6617.2017.9816.0418.1519.52
8.207.925.795.205.225.37
2.243.927.2511.4811.9511.87
8.3611.9114.5313.8412.6311.05
5.064.946.827.877.937.60
1.132.684.082.542.602.67
Sheet2
9-25
%
197819801985199019952000200520062007
100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00
67.7161.7757.7958.8058.6249.1345.4843.0243.08
12.7012.329.727.776.855.755.815.946.00
10.3013.8518.2417.3413.9115.4714.4916.5817.80
0.000.005.125.295.234.524.364.474.63
9.2912.061.731.442.585.589.5910.2110.19
0.000.003.925.377.8111.1811.5610.799.48
0.000.002.413.253.245.246.586.776.52
0.000.001.070.741.763.142.132.232.30
199019952000200520062007
100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00
41.5941.1036.1436.1134.5934.97
11.7510.327.416.936.936.96
21.6617.2017.9816.0418.1519.52
8.207.925.795.205.225.37
2.243.927.2511.4811.9511.87
8.3611.9114.5313.8412.6311.05
5.064.946.827.877.937.60
1.132.684.082.542.602.67
2007%20089-24
Sheet1
9-25
%
199019952000200520062007
100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00
58.8058.6249.1345.4843.0243.08
7.776.855.755.815.946.00
17.3413.9115.4714.4916.5817.80
5.295.234.524.364.474.63
1.442.585.589.5910.2110.19
5.377.8111.1811.5610.799.48
3.253.245.246.586.776.52
0.741.763.142.132.232.30
199019952000200520062007
100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00
41.5941.1036.1436.1134.5934.97
11.7510.327.416.936.936.96
21.6617.2017.9816.0418.1519.52
8.207.925.795.205.225.37
2.243.927.2511.4811.9511.87
8.3611.9114.5313.8412.6311.05
5.064.946.827.877.937.60
1.132.684.082.542.602.67
Sheet2
100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00
50.3747.8645.1542.6936.75
6.005.916.026.026.03
15.4315.8716.8717.5220.48
4.024.214.554.805.00
7.778.809.7010.4611.98
7.838.368.969.6410.92
6.746.906.566.496.24
1.842.102.192.392.60
1990199520002005
100.00100.00100.00100.00
41.5941.1036.1436.11
11.7510.327.416.93
21.6617.2017.9816.04
8.207.925.795.20
2.243.927.2511.48
8.3611.9114.5313.84
5.064.946.827.87
1.132.684.082.54
.
106.7410051.6348.37
10-1 20041365159.5%207446.3%7238711.1%433848.3%
10-1200415.20%, 53.02% 31.78 1: 3.49 : 2.0915.20% : 53.02% : 31.78 1: 1.76: 1.32
1. 2. 100%100%
3.
4.
5.
10-2 200021205%10%52
10-2 6%4.76%3.16
P2641. 2.
3.P2654.GDPGDP
P33112-6CPIPPI
P2952
3500
2100
1085
798
36500
24500
115200
72000
19600
18000
8450
5900
1
/
3500
2100
1.67
1085
798
1.36
36500
24500
1.49
115200
72000
1.60
19600
18000
1.09
8450
5900
1.43
2 78
-
31%
=1085/3500
38%
=798/2100
7
17%
=19600/115200
25%
=18000/72000
8
3 1.240.01
-
/
10.43
=36500/3500
11.67
=24500/2100
1.24
/
0.23
=8450/36500
0.24
=5900/24500
0.01
Index2004130.1%113.3%
1.P267
2.3.
1.
2.
3.
CPI
P270
1.
2.
1.
q p (qp)=(q)(p)(qp)=(q)(p)(qp)=(q)(p) q p p q
2.P272
3.
I qp 0 1 m IqIp :m = 0,1,
E.Laspeyres1864 Iq Ip
10-3 10-1
(q0q1p0p12000215030334205308070800890180188
q0 p0q1p1q1p0q0p16000070950645006600033600371004240029400144000167320160200150400237600275370267100245800
10-3112.4212.42
10-323.453.45
H.Paasche1874 Iq Ip
10-4 10-1
(q0q1p0p12000215030334205308070800890180188
q0 p0q1p1q1p0q0p16000070950645006600033600371004240029400144000167320160200150400237600275370267100245800
10-41 12.0312.03%
10-4( )3.1 3.12
1.
(2.
(
3. 4.
1.
2. I. Fisher
10-510-1
%112.4158112.0301112.2197112.2228%103.4512103.0962103.2633103.2735
A.YaungpnP287-288
P2951
400
500
500
450
1000
1100
800
960
12
12
:
1.
2. (q0p0)(q1p1)w
q1/q0p1/p0(q0 p0)ww0w0=1,
10-6 10-1
10-6 1q1/q0107.5%126.19%111.25%
10-6 2p1/p0110%87.5%104.44%
10-6 10-310-6
w w=1100%
q1/q0 p1/p0(q1 p1)
10-7 10-1
10-7 1q1/q0107.5%126.19%111.25%2p1/p0110%87.5%104.44%
10-710-410-7
: : WPI
2004-2005 P2953
%
2004
2005
A
160
185
10
B
120
110
-5
C
20
22
2
===P281
3%8% 108%103%=104.85%.= =
P273-27510-310-4
P282
10-8 10-1
10-8(2): = 275370 -237600 =37770() (1) : :
10-8 (3):
10-8(4) 37770()= 29500()+ 8270()115.9=112.42103.1 15.93777012.4212.42295003.13.18270
P2831.,
2. =3.
W=abcd
10-9 10-3
(q0q1p0p1r0r1
200021503033101142053080701513800890180188810
10-9(2) (q)(p) (r)(1) = 2935950-2256000 = 679950()= 2562600-2256000 = 306600()
10-9(3)= 2604560 2562600 = 41960() (4)= 2935950-2604560 = 331390()
10-9(5)130.14%=113.59%101.64%112.72%679950() =306600+41960+331390() 30.14%67995013.59%3066001.64%4196012.72%331390
x f /f
x f/f f/f x P285
1.
2.[P285] x
3. f/f
f /f x
10-10 10-4
/ x0 x1 f0 f160665506005062250400
10-10
10-10(1):(2):= 64.4-56.875=7.525/
10-10:= 64.4 - 56=8.4/(3)::= 56 - 56.875 = -0.875/
10-10(4)113.23% = 115%98.46%7.525 = 8.4 +(- 0.875)/ ,13.23%,7.525/,15%8.4/1.54%0.875/
P2967P2968P2969
Pn
195219571965197019801990
1995
() q1 /q0 q0 p0
w=1
1.
2.
Consumer Price IndexCPI .1.
2. 3.
25160022614680
(Gt) =
(Kt) = n
K,Wt-1 (It ,)
10-1110-5P291
10-11
1000[102.01]101.5[103.54]487104.698.6103.14 1. 70[103.48]95.5[98.82] 1103.594.097.29 2[103.35]95.3[98.49]102.5104.2 3105.096.4101.22 4102.795.798.28 2. 11102.198.5100.57 16. 135101.9100.5102.4154101.498.7100.088798.396.594.865897.598.495.9445102.799.6102.296595.195.891.118999.5107.7107.16115102.0114.9117.20
10-11110.4210.44 23
100 1000
()Standard & PoorsS&P5005001941-1943
()Dow Jones Average
() 33701964731100
()199012191001801803019961000
()=100100100100A20021231=1000