7- Cost Management - 7

*Unit 7 - 7

Agenda Estimate Costs .Determine Budget .Control Costs. . . . *

7 - Project Cost Management -7 Includes the processes involved in planning, estimating, budgeting, and controlling costs that the project can be completed within the approved budget.A process required to assess the economics of changes.Requires involvement by multiple organizations:Accounting To establish Structure.Management Information System MIS. To integrate the data.Department To provide the data. , , . . : . . . *

7 - Project Cost Management -7 7.1 Estimate Costs:The process of developing an approximation of the monetary resources needed to complete project activities.7.2 Determine Budget:The process of aggregating the estimated costs of individual activities or work packages to establish an authorized cost baseline.7.3 Control Costs:The process of monitoring the status of the project to update the project budget and managing changes to the cost baseline.7-1 : .7-2 : .7-3 : .*

7.1 Estimate Costs7.1 Cost Estimating is the determination of approximately how much it will cost the performing organization to provide the product or service involved. .*

Cost Management Plan The work involved in performing the three processes of Project Cost Management is preceded by a planning effort of the project management team. .*

Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of a System Summation of all expenses of acquiring, owning, and operating the system over its life.All costs are included in the analysis of the project life cycle :Design.Recurring.Initial acquisition.Direct costs. Incurred .Indirect costs.Forecasted.Operation. Insurance .Maintenance. development .Taxes.Energy.Replacement.Depreciation .Disposal. , , . : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .*

Life Cycle Costing VS. Value Engineering Life-Cycle Costing (LCC) : is the total cost to the organization for the ownership and acquisition of the product over its full life cycle.LCC = R&D costs + production cost + construction cost + operation and maintenance cost + product retirement and phase-out cost.Value Engineering (EV) : is a creative approach used to optimize life-cycle costs, save time, increase profits, improve quality, expand market share, solve problems, and/or use resources more effectively.

: . = + + + ( ) . ( ): , , , .*

Cost vs. Price Cost Estimating is the determination of approximately how much will it cost the performing organization to provide the product or service involved.Pricing is a business decision that determines how much to charge for the product or serviceCost + profit = Price

: . : . + = .*

Feasibility Study Includes the methods & techniques for determining:Technology feasibility (Sources, Selection, Support, Etc).Marketing feasibility (markets, methods, etc).Economic feasibility study (capital costs, operation costs, depreciation, interest rate, economic return, etc).Environmental impacts. : (, , ,....). ( , , .....) . ( , , , , ) . .*

Project Cost Categories Direct Costs:Examples : Labor Costs, Materials Costs, Subcontract Costs, And equipment /Assets Costs.Project Overhead (Indirect) Cost:Examples : Supervision and Project Electricity.Company Overhead (Indirect) Cost:Examples : CEO Salary, Office Supplies and utilities, Taxes, Insurance, and Office Rent. : : , , , . () : : . () : : , , , , .

*

Project Cost Categories Variable Costs :Changes with the amount of production or the amount of work .Examples : cost of materials, supplies, and wages .Fixed Costs :Not changed as production changes .Example : set up cost , rental cost . : . : , , . : . : , .*

Production Cost Categories Fixed Cost (F).Not related to the level of production.Variable Costs (V).Directly related to the level of production. : ( ) . : ( ) .*VF$

Learning Curve Labor Cost A person engaged in a repetitive work will improve his/her performance.Affects labor cost : average unit cost decreases as more units produced.Learning Rate:Each time production output doubles worker hours per unit decrease to a fixed percentage of their previous value. . : . : .*

Example - Learning Curve - Duration (4th item) = 10 Days.Duration (8th item) = 9 Days.Learning Rate = 90%.If output is doubled from 8 to 16, then :Duration (16th item) = 9(0.9) = 8.10 Days.Similarity :Duration (32th item) = 8.10(0.90) = 7.29 Days. = 10 . = 9 . = 90% 8 16: 16= 9 X 0,90 = 8,10 . : 32 = 8,10 X 0,90 = 7,29 .*

Depreciation ( )For large assets .Lose value over time .Two Forms :Straight line : Example A $1,000 item with 10 years useful life ( No saving value ) would be depreciated at $100 per year.Accelerated Depreciation :Double Declining Balance .Sum of the years digits . . . : : $1,0000 10 ( ) 100 $ . : . .*

Equipment / Asset Depreciation Cost / To calculate depreciation cost, you need:Original Price.Useful life ( Usually in Years).Salvage Value .The expected cash value at the end of an assets useful life. : . ( ) . . .*

*7.1 Estimate Costs1.7

7.1 Estimate Costs ( Planning )1.7 ( )Scope baselineProject scheduleHuman resource planRisk registerEnterprise environmental factors Organizational process assets . . . . . .*

7.1 Estimate Costs1.7 Expert judgment.Analogous estimating.Parametric estimating. Bottom-up estimating. Three-point estimates.Reserve analysis .Cost of quality .PM Estimating software.Vendor bid analysis. . . . ( ) . . . . .*

Analogous Estimating Using the actual cost of previous, similar projects as the basis for estimating the cost of the current project. Frequently used to estimate costs when there is a limited amount of detailed information about the project. Uses historical information and expert judgment. Generally less costly than other techniques.It is also generally less accurate.

() ( ) . . . . .*

Parametric Estimating Parametric estimating uses a statistical relationship between historical data and other variables (e.g., square footage in construction) to calculate an estimate for activity parameters, such as cost, budget, and duration. Can produce higher levels of accuracy depending upon the sophistication.Involves multiplying the planned quantity of work to be performed by the historical cost per unit to obtain the estimated cost. ( ) . . .

*

Bottom-up Estimating ( )Involves estimating the cost of individual work packages or individual schedule activities.This detailed cost is then rolled up to higher levels for reporting and tracking purposes. The cost and accuracy of bottom-up cost estimating is typically motivated by the size and complexity of the individual schedule activity or work package. Generally, activities with smaller effort increase the accuracy of the schedule activity cost estimates.

. . "" . . .*

Three-Point Estimates This concept originated with the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), PERT uses three estimates to define an approximate range for an activitys duration:Most likelyOptimisticPessimisticPERT analysis calculated an expected activity duration using a weighted average of these three estimates.

(PERT) (PERT ) : ( ) (MC).( OC ). (PC). (PERT) .*

*Three-Point Estimates (Probabilistic Estimate) ( ) (EC) = OT + 4MT + PT 6OC = Optimistic costPC = Pessimistic costMC = Most likely costEC = Estimated costS.D. = Standard DeviationS.D. = PT OT 6Final Cost Estimate (FCE) = EC +\- S.D

Three-Point Estimates (Probabilistic Estimate) ( ) *(EC) = OT + 4MT + PT 6OT = PT = MT = EC= S.D. = S.D. = PT OT 6 = ))(EC( +\-

7.1 Estimate Costs1.7 Activity cost estimates.Basis of estimates.Project document updates. . . .*

Activity Cost Estimates A quantitative assessment of the likely costs of the resources required to complete schedule activities. This type of estimate can be presented in summary form or in detail. Costs are estimated for all resources that are applied to the activity cost estimate.

. . .*

Activity Cost Estimates This includes, but is not limited to:LaborMaterialsEquipmentServicesFacilitiesInformation technologySpecial categories such as an inflation allowance or cost contingency reserve , : . . . . . . ( ) : .*

Standard Estimating Classes Could be different depending on the company & application

, .*

*General Accounting Terms

TermIndicatesPresent Value (PV) The value today of future cash flows Net Present Value (NPV) The sum of the present value of all income and expenditures of a project. Greater than 0 is good. . .Internal Rate of Return (IRR) .The determination of the discount rate at the point of NPV = 0. ( ) .Payback Period .The amount of time that will pass before the net revenues = costs incurred. .Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) ( ) .A comparison of revenue to costs. Greater than 1 is good. . 1 .Opportunity Costs .The loss of selecting one project vs. another. .

Project Selection Approach Economic Attractiveness of the project/ Economic Forecasting Methods.Net Present Value(NPV).Payback Period.Internal Rate of Return.Benefit/Cost Ratio.Annual Equivalent Method.Capitalized Cost Method:A special case of present worth method in which the project is assumed to last forever. . . . . . . . . *

Economic Methods Present Value .Net Present Value.Internal Rate of Return .Payback Period .Benefit Cost Ratio.

. . . . .*

*Net Present Value (NPV) or - Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Calculates todays value of future money. It is the opposite of compounding, which is the future value of todays money.

Future Value Profit n = Number of Years NPV (DCF)= Total of (1+Interest Rate) n . , .

( ) = (1 + ) n = n

Present Value Present Value (P) = Present Worth The value today of future cash flows.Formula : P = F/(1+i) F = Future Value i = Interest Rate n = Number of Years = . . : P = F/(1+i) = F .i = .n = .*nExample : What is the present value of US$ 200,00 received 2 years from now, if the interest rate is 10%?Answer : P = 200K/(1+01) = 200K/1.21 = $ 165,289The answer is less than US$200,000 (Time Value of Money).2n : 200 2 , 10%. : P = 200K/(1+01) = 200K/1.21 = $ 165,289 200 .2

Payback Period The point in time at which the benefits delivered by the project are equal to the costs incurred.Expression like This investment will pay for itself in less than 3 years are common in business and emphasize the tendency to evaluate projects & investment in terms of payback or payout period.Two types :Payback without interest (Time Value of Money). Payback with interest. . 3 . : ( ). .*

Example - Payback Period - Payback without interest: : -1,000+500+300+200=0Payback Period = 3 years. = 3 Payback with interest: : :By trial and error, the payback period = - 1,000+500 (P/F,15%,1) + 300 (P/F,15%,2) + 200 (P/F,15%,3) + 200 (P/F,15%,4) + 200 (P/F,15%,5) = $7 = 0Payback Period = 5 Years. = 5 *~

Net Present Value (NPV) Method One tool, two names:Net Present Value or Net Present Worth (NPV or NPW).Discounted Cash Flow (DCF).Present value of total benefits (Income or Revenue) less the present value of all the costs:Positive = Good Potential.Negative = Poor Potential. , : ( NPV NPW ). (DCF). ( ) : = . = .*

Benefit/Cost Ratio Method Mostly for public projects, but could be used for privet projects.Benefits are highly subjective and usually involve social and political benefits.Example : A benefit/Cost Ratio of 1.90 :Means that the revenue is 1.90 times the cost.It does not means that profits is 1.90 times the cost. . . : 1,90 : 1,90 . 1,90 .*

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)( IRR (The interest rate at which Equivalent Receipt = Equivalent DisbursementsORThe interest rate that reduces the present value worth amount of a series of receipts and disbursements to ZEROUsed to examine the return from a project to see if it is a good proposition:Example : IRR = 15% = . : IRR = 15%*

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)( IRR (The cash inflows received from the project are immediately reinvested to earn a return equal to the IRR for the remaining life of the project.IRR: the discount that sets the NPV to zero .Minimum Acceptance Criteria: Accept if the IRR > required return .Ranking Criteria: Select alternative with the highest IRRReinvestment assumption: the IRR calculation assumes that all future cash flows are reinvested at the IRR .

IRR . . IRR < . : IRR . : IRR IRR .*

Economic Methods - Example - *

7.2 Determine Budget ( Planning ) 2.7 ( )Determine Budget is the process of aggregating the estimated costs of individual activities or work packages to establish an authorized cost baseline. This baseline includes all authorized budgets, but excludes management reserves.

( ) . .*

*7.2 Determine Budget 2.7 Source: PMBOK Guide Fourth Edition, page 175

* - 1 2 3 4 5 4

7.2 Determine Budget 2.7 Activity cost estimatesBasis of estimatesScope baselineProject scheduleResource calendarsContractsOrganizational process assets . . . . ( ). . .*

Two Types of Project Reserves A separately planned quantity to account for uncertainty .Involves Cost, Schedule or both. Intended to reduce the impact of missing cost or schedule objectives.Contingency Reserve [Output/Input]. The amount of funds, Budget or Time needed above the estimate to reduce the Risk of overruns of project objectives to a level acceptable to the organization. Contingency Reserve : Accounts for future known unknown.Example : Rework is certain; the amount of rework is not.Are normally included in the projects baseline.Management Reserve :Accounts for unknown unknowns (Impossible to predict).Using it requires in projects cost baseline. . , . . ( /) . () , . : : ( ) , . : ( ) .*

Reserve Analysis Budget reserve analysis can establish both the contingency reserves and the management reserves for the project. Contingency reserves are allowances for unplanned but potentially required changes that can result from realized risks identified in the risk register. Management reserves are budgets reserved for unplanned changes to project scope and cost. Management reserves are not a part of the project cost baseline, but may be included in the total budget for the project. They are not included as a part of the earned value measurement calculations.

. . . . . .*

Funding Limit Reconciliation ( )The expenditure of funds is reconciled with the funding limits set by the customer. Reconciliation will necessitate the scheduling of work to be adjusted to smooth or regulate those expenditures.Rescheduling can impact the allocation of resources. The final product of these planning iterations is a cost baseline. ( ) . . . .*

7.2 Determine Budget 2.7 Cost performance baseline Project funding requirements Project document updates . . .*

Cost Performance Baseline A time-phased budget that is used as a basis against which to measure, monitor, and control overall cost performance on the project. It is developed by summing estimated costs by period and is usually displayed in the form of an S-curve.The cost baseline is a component of the project management plan. Many projects, especially large ones, have multiple cost or resource baselines.For example, management may require that the project manager track internal costs (labor) separately from external costs (contractors and construction materials) or total labor hours.

(BAC) . S . . , . , .*

Project Funding Requirements Funding requirements, total and periodic (e.g., annual or quarterly), are derived from the cost baseline.Can be established to exceed, usually by a margin, to allow for either early progress or cost overruns. Funding usually occurs in incremental amounts that are not continuous.The total funds required are those included in the cost baseline plus the management contingency reserve amount.

( ) . . . .*

*Cash Flow, Cost Baseline and Funding Display , ( )

7.3 Control Costs 3.7 Control Costs is the process of monitoring the status of the project to update the project budget and manage changes to the cost baseline. .*

Control Costs Objectives Influencing the factors that create changes to the authorized cost baseline.Ensuring that all change requests are acted on in a timely manner.Managing the actual changes when and as they occur.Ensuring that cost expenditures do not exceed the authorized funding, by period and in total for the project.Monitoring cost performance to isolate and understand variances from the approved cost baseline.Monitoring work performance against funds expended.Preventing unapproved changes from being included in the reported cost or resource usage.Informing appropriate stakeholders of all approved changes and associated cost.Acting to bring expected cost overruns within acceptable limits. . . . . . . . . .*

*7.3 Control Costs 3.7 Source: PMBOK Guide Fourth Edition, page 180

7.3 Control Costs ( Controlling )3.7 ( )Project management plan Project funding requirements Work performance information Organizational process assets . . . .*

7.3 Control Costs 3.7 Earned value managementForecastingTo-complete performance index (TCPI) Performance reviews Variance analysis Project management software . . (TCPI). . . .*

Earned Value Management Earned value management (EVM) in its various forms is a commonly used method of performance measurement. It integrates project scope, cost, and schedule measures to help the project management team assess and measure project performance and progress. It is a project management technique that requires the formation of an integrated baseline against which performance can be measured for the duration of the project. The principles of EVM can be applied to all projects, in any industry. EVM develops and monitors three key dimensions for each work package and control account . (EVM) . . . . .*

Earned Value Concept - A method for measuring project cost performance. .*

: EVNS*

Earned Value 4 Components 4 Planned Value (PV):Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS).The planned Value (PV) .The sum of budgets for work scheduled to be accomplished .A time phase baseline budget plan.Earned Value (EV): Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP).The sum of budgets for completed portions of the work.Based on : Estimated Cost & resource requirements for performing the activities.Degree to which activities have been accomplished. : . . . . : . . : . .*

Earned Value 4 Components 4 Actual Cost (AC):Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP).The sum of actual budgets for completed portions of the work.Budgeted At Completion (BAC) :Project budget . : . . : .*

*Progress Reporting EV = * EV = % * EV = , ( ) EV = % 0 % 100 %20 % 80 %50 % 50 %15% 20% 35% 30% : : 1 2 ( , .... ) . . . . ( ) . .

.

*Progress Reporting Apportioned Effort

EV = Completed Units * Units Budgeted CostEV = % Completed * PVEV = PV , Example Project Management EffortFor Supportive Tasks {Example (QA/QC)}EV = % of Earned Value of The Main Task0 % 100 %20 % 80 %50 % 50 %15% 20% 35% 30% No Tangible Outcome Tangible Outcome Fixed Formula (Tasks With 1-2 Planning Periods ) Weighted Milestone (Tasks With Longer Duration ) Units Complete Percent Complete (Simple & easy)Discrete Packages Level of Effort

*Responsibility Allocation Matrix (RAM) & Control Accounts Work Breakdown Structure ( )Organization Breakdown Structure ( )Assignment of a single work element to a single team allows better control and Facilitates roll-up of efforts In both directions. . .Control Accounts (CA)Where Projects Scope, Cost and Schedule are Planned , Managed & Controlled : , , ,

Earned Value Formulas - Cost Variance : ()

Schedule Variance : ()

Cost Performance Index :

Schedule Performance Index : *CV = EV AC CV = BCWP ACWP Bad < 0SV = EV PV SV = BCWP ACWS Bad < 0Bad < 1CPI = EV/ACBad < 1SPI = EV/PV

Earned Value Formulas - Cost Variance :CV$ = EV AC ( - ) Unfavorable , ( +) favorableCost Variance % : CV% = (CV$ / EV) * 100 ( - ) Unfavorable , ( +) favorableSchedule Variance : SV$ = EV PV ( - ) Unfavorable , ( +) favorableSchedule Variance % : SV% = (SV$ / PV) * 100 ( - ) Unfavorable , ( +) favorable

:= . :=(( )\ ) * 100 . := . := (( ) \ ) *100 .

*

Earned Value Formulas - Variance At Completion : VAC$ = BAC EAC( - ) Over Budget( + ) Under Budget Variance At Completion % : VAC $ % = (BAC EAC) * 100 / BAC = (VAC $ /BAC) * 100( - ) Over Budget ( + ) Under Budget := ( ) . := ( ( ) ) *100 \ .*

Earned Value Formulas - Cost Performance Index :CPI = EV / AC > 1 (Underrun) ; < 1 (Overrun) ; 1 (On Budget)Schedule Performance Index : SPI = EV / PV > 1 (Ahead) ; < 1 (Behind) ; 1 (On Schedule)Cost Schedule Performance Index :1 - CSPI = CPI * SPI2 - CSPI = 0.8CPI * 0.2SPI := \ . := \ . ( ) := * .= (0,8 )* 0,2 )*

Earned Value Formulas - To Complete Performance Index (TCPI):= Work Remaining / Budget Remaining= TCPI = (BAC-EV) / (BAC-AC) . := \ .= ( ) \ ( ) .*

To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI) The To-Complete performance index (TCPI) is the calculated projection of cost performance that must be achieved on the remaining work to meet a specified management goal, such as the BAC or the EAC.Equation for the TCPI based on the BAC: TCPI= (BAC-EV) / (BAC-AC)Equation for the TCPI based on the EAC: TCPI= (BAC-EV) / (EAC-AC)

(TCPI) .EAC BAC . TCPI BAC :TCPI= (BAC-EV) / (BAC-AC) TCPI EAC :TCPI= (BAC-EV) / (EAC-AC)*

Estimate At Completion (EAC) - EACt Estimate at Completion (Time): EACt = ( BAC/SPI)/(BAC/Project Duration ) EACt = ( Project Duration / SPI )EAC$ Estimate at Completion ($):1 - EAC$ = BAC/CPI2 - EAC$ = AC + (BAC EV )/CPI3 - EAC$ = AC + [(BAC EV )/(CPI * SPI)]4 - EAC$ = AC + [(BAC EV ) / (0.8CPI *0.2SPI)] . ( ) := ( \ ) \ ( \ ) .= \ . ( ) := \ . + ( ) \ . + )) ) \( * ). +(( ) \(0,2 *0,8 )

*

Estimate To Complete Estimate To Complete ( ETC ) :ETC = EAC AC (Future) ETC = BAC - EV (Past)

:= ( ) .= ( ). *

Percent Completed Percent Completed : = (EV/ BAC)* 100 Percent (Work Completed)Percent Spent (Budget) : = (AC/BAC)*100Percent (Budget Spent)Percent Scheduled : = (PV /BAC)*100 Percent (Time Elapsed) :( \ ) * 100 ( ) . ( ) := ( \ ) * 100 ( ) . :( \ ) *100 ( ) . *

*Example To Analyzing Input DataWe Will Take (Total Project) As SampleTime Now Is (+ 4) Months. Project Duration 8 Months ( ) . +4 8 .

Sheet1

PVEVACBACEAC

Hard Wear170,000140,000200,000400,000?

Soft Wear175,000150,000230,000210,000?

Other70,00075,00055,000100,000?

Total415,000365,000485,000710,000?

*Earned Value Data Tables After E.V. - ResultsSCHEDULE MEASUREMENTSSV = - 50,000SV% = - 12.05 %SPI = 0.88COST MEASUREMENTSCV = - 120,000CV% = - 32.88 %CPI = 0.75COST / SCH. INDICESCSPI = 0.66CSPI = 0.776TCPI = 1.53OVERALL STATUS MEASUR.% COMPLETED = 51.41 %% SCHEDULED = 58.45 %% SPENT = 68.31 %TIME MEASUREMENTSEAC (time) = 9. 09 M.PROJECT DELAY = 1.09 M.

FORECAST MEASUREMENTSBUDGET MEASUREMENTSBUDGET REM.= 225,000WORK REM. = 345,000

* MINIMUM * * MAXIMUM

MANHOURS / $TIMEEarned Value (EV) = 365,000Planned Value (PV) = 415,000Actual Cost ( AC ) = 485,000Budgeted Cost At Completion (BAC) = 710,000Time Now4 Months8 MonthsVariance at Completion (VAC) = ?Cost Variance (CV) = ?Schedule Variance (SV) = ?Estimate to Complete (ETC) = ?Estimate at completion (EAC) = ?Forecasted Time Variance = ?Estimated Project Duration = ? Earned Value Data Elements S Curve Before E.V. - Input Data *

*Earned Value Data Elements S Curve After E.V. - Results MANHOURS / $TIMEEarned Value (EV) = 365,000Planned Value (PV) = 415,000Actual Cost ( AC ) = 485,000Budgeted Cost At Completion (BAC) = 710,000Time Now4 Months8 MonthsVariance at Completion (VAC) = - 219,587 To - 297,727Cost Variance(CV) = - 120,000Schedule Variance (SV) = - 50,000Estimate to Complete (ETC) = 444,587 To 522,727Estimate at completion (EAC) = 929,587 To 1,007,727Forecasted Time Variance= 1.09 Months9.09 Months

Earned Value Project Level A project consists of 4 Activities . After sometimes of its start you want to evaluate its performance as follows:

Network computation show the dates. Here we show the budgetsThe practice is more professional . With the help of computers, the S curve can be drawn for the project 4 . : . ( ) . S .*

*Earned Value Equations

TermEquationIndicatesSchedule VarianceSV = EV - PVGood if >=0Cost VarianceCV = EV - ACGood if >=0Schedule Performance IndexSPI = EV/PV Good if >=1Cost Performance IndexCPI = EV/ACGood if >=1Estimate at CompletionEAC = BAC/CPIActual costEstimate to Complete ETC = EAC ACHow much more willbe spentVariance at CompletionVAC = BAC - EACGood if >=0

*Earned Value Equations

Indicates .SV = EV - PV

Performance Reviews Variance analysisTrend analysisEarned value performance

. . .*

Variance Analysis Cost performance measurements (CV, CPI) are used to assess the magnitude of variation to the original cost baseline.

(CV, CPI) . *

7.3 Control Costs 3.7 Work Performance measurements Budget forecastsOrganizational process assets updatesChange requests PM plan updates Project document updates

. . . . . .*

Cost Breakdown structure 1 Activity Estimates *

Questions? *

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