Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1
AIM model can developquantitative city-level
climate changescenarios
Junichi FUJINO On behalf of AIM teamNIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies), Japan
アジアにおける低炭素都市形成セミナー
Yokohama, Oct 29, 2014
Designed by Hajime Sakai
1. If we cannot go to LCS,…2. LCS offers higher QOL with
less energy demand and lower-carbon energy supply
3. LCS needs good design, early action, and innovations
AIM Chronology and Japanese Climate Change PolicyAIM mitigation scenarios Japanese PM’s Decision
1990 AIM start
1997 15% cut in 2010 6% cut in 2010 by PM Hashimoto
2007 70% cut in 2050 Cool Earth 50 by PM Abe
2008 12 actions towards LCS 60‐80% cut in 2050 by PM Fukuda
2009 7/15/25 % cut in 2020 8% cut in 2020 by PM Aso
2011 East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima AccidentNow 2030 target
AIM members support IPCC as CLAs, LAs, and REs since the FAR.AIM provides RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways).
What is AIM?‐ Asia‐Pacific Integrated Model ‐
AIM is Simulation Model
‐ Technology Bottom‐up modelincluding more than 400 options
‐ Economic Top‐down modelto evaluate economic impact
‐ Detailed sector‐wise model forpopulation, residential, transport,Industry, energy supply, etc
AIM is Human Network
‐ Start international collaborationsince 1994 and we have the 20thannual int.ws in Jan 2015, Tsukuba
‐ Researchers and policy‐makersin China, India, Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam,Nepal, Cambodia, Bangladesh,Taiwan, Australia, NZ, USA, EU,etc and Japan.
The case of Iskandar Malaysia
4
Premier of Malaysia provided permission in the 13th IRDA Steering Committee to start the Iskandar Low Carbon Society planning(December 11th, 2012)
“Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions”In the case of “Iskandar Malaysia”
Japanese experience on Low Carbon Scenarios & Roadmaps
+ Malaysian challenge on
Implementation of Low Carbon Visions
SATREPS 5
Research: AIM model apply to Iskandar Malaysia Regionto identify Potential Mitigation Options
Green Economy 59%
Green Community 21%Green Environment 20%
Mitigation Options
Green Economy Action 1 Integrated Green Transportation Action 2 Green Industry Action 3 Low Carbon Urban Governance**Action 4 Green Building and Construction Action 5 Green Energy System and Renewable Energy
Green Community Action 6 Low Carbon Lifestyle Action 7 Community Engagement and Consensus Building**
Green Environment Action 8 Walkable, Safe and Livable City Design Action 9 Smart Urban Growth Action 10 Green and Blue Infrastructure and Rural Resources Action 11 Sustainable Waste Management Action 12 Clean Air Environment**
Total
Research to Policy: Policymakers launch LCS implementation planbased on scientific scenario study using AIM model
The LCSBPIM Actions for Lowcarbon Future is aimplementation report. This planselect 10 priority projects from atotal of 281 programs to beimplemented for the 2011‐2015.Apart from Triple Base lineactions, 3 special projects arealso identified‐ Bkt batu Ec0‐Community, LC Village FELDA TaibAndak and Pasir gudang Nafasbaru
1. Mobile Management System
2. Green Economy Guidelines
3. Eco‐Life Challenge Project for Schools
4. Portal on Green Technology
5. Trees for Urban Parks/Forests
6. Responsible Tourism and Biodiversity Conservation
7. Bukit BatuEco‐Community
8. GAIA –Green Accord Initiative Award
9. Low Carbon Village FELDA Taib Andak
10. Special Feature: Smart City –Pasir Gudang ‘NAFAS BARU’: CLEAN AND HEALTHY CITY
The LCSBPIM Booklet: “Actions for a Low Carbon Future”
7
Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Iskandar Malaysia
Project Background
Site: Iskandar Malaysia
Objective: i. To draw up key policies and strategies in guiding the development of Iskandar Malaysia in mitigating carbon emission. Transforming Iskandar Malaysia into a sustainable low carbon metropolis by adopting green growth strategies/roadmap.
ii. To respond to the nation’s aspiration for ensuring climate‐resilient development for sustainability.Target Year: 2025 (2005 – 2025)
(Iskandar Regional Development Authority)
BackgroundDevelopment of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions
Research Team: Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Kyoto University (KU), Okayama University (OU),National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Joint Coordinating Committee: Iskandar Regional Development Authority (IRDA), Federal Departmentof Town and Country Planning (JPBD), Malaysia Green Technology Corporation (MGTC)
Sponsorship: Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) , Japan Science and Technology (JST)
Period: 2011 ‐ 2016
Research Output:i.Methodology to create LCS scenarios which is appropriate for Malaysia is developed.
ii. LCS scenarios are created and utilized for policy development in IM.
iii. Co‐benefit of LCS policies on air pollution and on recycling‐based society is quantified in IM
iv. Organizational arrangement of UTM to conduct trainings on LCS scenarios for Malaysia and Asiancountries is consolidated, and a network for LCS in Asia is established
10
The 10th SATREPS progress meeting, Oct 12‐14, NIES
Overall research procedure of our LC development approach
11
Analysis of Alternative LCD scenarios and
measures
Try and error to keep consistency and unity
among Socio‐Economic policies and
LCD targets
Quantification of Socio‐economic Visions and
GHG emission
Qualification of Socio‐economic Vision
Setting framework• Area• Base year• Target year• Covered sectors• Actors/Players • LCS target
• Demography• Lifestyle• Economy• Transport• Building• Resource
efficiency• Energy strategy• Power supply
Quantifications of parameters:• Population• Final demand • Transport parameters• Energy service
demand generation• Energy device share• Power supply
assumptions
Evaluation of Scenarios / measures:
• Transportation system• Energy service demand
generation• Energy device share• Power supply options• Renewable energy• Carbon sink• etc.
Design LCD Actions and Roadmaps from
the analysis
Example of AIM’s socio‐economic part
12
04 Potential Mitigation Options for Iskandar MalaysiaGreen Economy, Green Community and Green Environment
COP 18 Side Event . Doha . 30 November 2012
Green Economy 59%
Green Community21%Green Environment20%
Incorporate CDP2
04 Potential Mitigation Options for Iskandar Malaysia12 Actions Towards Low Carbon Future
COP 18 Side Event . Doha . 30 November 2012
Mitigation Options CO2 Reduction
%
Green Economy 7,401 59% Action 1 Integrated Green Transportation 1,916 15% Action 2 Green Industry 1,085 9% Action 3 Low Carbon Urban Governance** ‐ ‐Action 4 Green Building and Construction 1,338 11% Action 5 Green Energy System and Renewable Energy 3,061 24%
Green Community 2,557 21% Action 6 Low Carbon Lifestyle 2,557 21% Action 7 Community Engagement and Consensus Building** ‐ ‐
Green Environment 2,510 20% Action 8 Walkable, Safe and Livable City Design 264 2% Action 9 Smart Urban Growth 1,214 10% Action 10 Green and Blue Infrastructure and Rural Resources 620 5% Action 11 Sustainable Waste Management 412 3% Action 12 Clean Air Environment** ‐ ‐
Total 12,467** 100%
Malaysian context
Science(R &D)
Policies(LCS)
Actions(LP or SP, NPP)
Economy(High income
nation)
Environment(Sustainable)
Social(Inclusiveness)
Climate change Problems
Co benefits of LCS policies
Quantification from LCS modeling assist better understanding on impact of proposed actions, sub actions and programs.
Good baseline study, consensus building & Low carbon blueprint plan will help to develop an integrated climate resilient , Low carbon framework for a rapid urbanised city or region.
Inclined to focus on co- benefits of LCS policies
Launching of Low Carbon Future for implementation 2013
The LCSBPIM Actions for Lowcarbon Future is aimplementation report. This planselect 10 priority projects from atotal of 281 programs to beimplemented for the 2011‐2015.Apart from Triple Base lineactions, 3 special projects arealso identified‐ Bkt batu Ec0‐Community, LC Village FELDA TaibAndak and Pasir gudang Nafasbaru
1. Mobile Management System
2. Green Economy Guidelines
3. Eco‐Life Challenge Project for Schools
4. Portal on Green Technology
5. Trees for Urban Parks/Forests
6. Responsible Tourism and Biodiversity Conservation
7. Bukit BatuEco‐Community
8. GAIA –Green Accord Initiative Award
9. Low Carbon Village FELDA Taib Andak
10. Special Feature: Smart City –Pasir Gudang ‘NAFAS BARU’: CLEAN AND HEALTHY CITY
The LCSBPIM Booklet: “Actions for a Low Carbon Future”
311
50101 177
こどもエコライフチャレンジの経緯History of Eco Life Challenge
• 2005年度より協働でスタート– 京都青年会議所との協働事業として、小学校で地球温暖化・エコライフ
についての学習会を開催。
• 2010年から京都市との協働で全校実施へ!All public primary schools join!
2005年 2006年 2007年 2008年 2009年 2010年~1
全校実施
18
Workbook for pupils
19
Iskandar Malaysia Ecolife Challenge 2013
Iskandar Malaysia Ecolife Challenge 2013• Workbook designed by UTM• 23 schools (2800 Y6 students)• 1 months to complete individually & groups (October 2013)
• Final presentation• No of workbooks distributed –3790
• No of workbooks returned –1807
• Return rate – 47.68%• Low rate because low awareness among teachers and lack of monitoring at the district level.
No Item Pre‐ELC Post‐ELC Diff.
1 Shut down TV when you do not watch it. 3.11 3.22 0.11
2 Turn off lights in a room where no one uses the room 3.15 3.22 0.07
3 Do not use too much of air conditioner. 1.28 1.93 0.65
4 Be careful in setting the temperature of air conditioner. 1.28 1.70 0.43
5 Close refrigerator soon after you use it. Do not open it when not necessary.
2.65 2.98 0.33
6 Iron many clothes at one time. 2.25 2.57 0.32
7 Do not leave water running when washing teeth or face. 2.70 2.92 0.21
8 Washing school shoes using pail instead of running water. 2.54 2.83 0.29
9 Bring my own bag (eco bag) to shopping. 1.80 2.45 0.65
10 Collect plastic bags for other usage. 3.46 3.65 0.19
11 Use notebooks with recycled‐mark. 1.75 2.36 0.61
12 Reuse unused side of paper. 2.76 3.26 0.50
13 Bring water bottle, instead of buying drinks. 2.86 3.08 0.21
14 Separate waste and recycle them. 2.23 2.93 0.70
15 Use bicycle or walk for short distance. 2.97 3.15 0.18
16 Leave no food. Do not waste food. 2.99 3.20 0.20
17 Discuss with your family about environmental issues. 1.67 2.52 0.85
23
Blog of Kyoto City Mayor, Mr. Daisaku Kadokawa
Welcome winners of Iskandar Malaysia Eco Life Challenge 2013 on Dec 2013 in Kyoto City Hall
• 23 schools as pioneering batch for ASPnet (Unesco) primary category in Malaysia
• Initial stage (2013) in competition format as a study platform• To be scaled up by incorporating ELC as lesson component in
all planned 198 ASPnet (UNESCO Schools) primary schools in Iskandar Malaysia.
23
24
To be “RCE”(Regional Centers
of Expertise on ESD),
UNU program
Iskandar Malaysia Ecolife Challenge 2014• Workbook designed by UTM in Malay
• 80 schools (15623 Y6 students)
• 1 months to complete individually & groups (October 2014)
• Final presentation for 15 schools – 10 Nov 2014
• Judges from Malaysia & Japan
26
Blog of Kyoto City Mayor, Mr. Daisaku Kadokawa
Welcome winners of Iskandar Malaysia Eco Life Challenge 2013 on Dec 2013 in Kyoto City Hall
Prof. Ho, Mr. Isma, Mr. Jalil, Mr. Razif, Ms. Aermavisited the Mayor Kadokawa on Aug 2014
27
Eco‐partnership between
Kyoto city and JBMentioned by
Mayor Kadokawa
Blog of Kyoto City Mayor, Mr. Daisaku Kadokawa
Briefing to Principals15 Sep 2014 @ Iskandar Malaysia Information Centre (IMIC)
Briefing to Teachers24 Sep 2014 @ Ar‐Razi Auditorium, T02, Faculty Bioscience and Medical Engineering (FBME), UTM
The case of Ho Chi Minh City
29
30Expert Workshop in HCMC during 13th and 15th May 2014
ホーチミン市での専門家ワークショップ(2014年5月13日から15日)の様子
under Osaka City and Ho Chi Minh City sister city program
31
Special AIM Training Course for HCMC delegates in NIES
on 2nd and 3rd June, 2014
ホーチミン市専門家対象AIM特別習得コース2014年6月2日・3日
於 国立環境研究所、つくば
Low Carbon Scenarios for HCMC, Vietnam 2030
August, 2014
VIETNAM• HCMC Department of Science and Technology
(DOST):NGUYEN Ky Phung, TRAN Xuan Hoang
• HCMC University of Natural Resources and Environment (U.NRE):
NGUYEN Dinh Tuan
Research team:JAPAN • Kyoto University (KU):
TRAN Thanh Tu, Yuzuru MATSUOKA• E‐konzal:
Yuki OCHI, Tomoki EHARA• National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan (NIES)
Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research: Kei GOMI, Junichi FUJINO, Toshihiko MASUI
• Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) – LoCARNet:Shuzo NISHIOKA, Tomoko ISHIKAWA
• Mizuho Information and Research Institute (MHIR): Go HIBINO, Kazuya FUJIWARA
33
Working procedure 34
1. Collect relevant information
3. Prepare data input
4. Integrate base year’s data
Statistical information
Legal documents
Other information sources
Energy Balance Table
Social Accounting Matrix
5. Analysis of current status and BaU projection
ExSS
2. Discuss with related departments
6. Design of Low Carbon HCMC in target years and estimation of
GHG emission reduction potential
AIM/Waste Socio‐economic vision Energy related vision
Waste related vision
7. Design of Low Carbon Actions for HCMC
Information sharing and exchange with
HCMC
Background information
Technical report of Low Carbon HCMC 2030
Brochure of Low Carbon HCMC 2030
This study has not covered Waste sector
Political background 35
Decision no. 2484/QD‐UBND (May 15, 2013)
“Issuing Programs for Implementing Climate Change Action Plans of HCMC by 2015”
Decision no. 1393/QD‐TTg (Sep. 25, 2012)“Approval of National Green Growth Strategy for Vietnam”
‐ The period 2011‐2020: Reduce the intensity of GHG emissions by 8‐10% as compared to the 2010 level; reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP by 1‐1.5% per year. Reduce GHG emissions from energy activities by 10% to 20% compared to BaU‐ Orientation towards 2030: Reduce annual GHG emissions by at least 1.5‐2%; reduce GHG in energy activities by 20 to 30% compared to BaU
Decision no. 1474/QD‐TTg(Oct. 5, 2012)
“Publishing National Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) for the Period 2012‐2020”
Decision no. 2305/QD‐UBND
(May 5, 2012)“Approval of Green Energy Program for HCMC by 2015”
Decision no. 2631/QD‐TTg(Dec. 31, 2013)
“Approval of Master Plan for Socio‐economic Development of HCMC till
2020 with vision to 2025”‐ Annual GDP growth: 10‐10.5% (2011‐2015), 9.5‐10% (2016‐2020), 8.5‐9% (2021‐2025)‐ Population (mil.): 8.2 (2015), 9.2 (2020), 10 (2025)‐ Ratio of electricity consumption growth and GDP growth: 1, try to below 0.8 (more than 20% reduction)
Decision no. 568/QD‐TTg(Apr 8, 2013)
“Approval of Master plan for Transportation development for HCMC by 2020 with vision beyond 2020”
Share of transport mode:‐ 2020: public (20‐25%), private (72‐77%), others ‐ 2030: public (35‐45%), private (51‐61%), others ‐ Beyond 2030: public (50‐60%), private (35‐45%), others
Proposal for “Climate Change Action Plan in the 2016‐2020 period, with
a vision towards 2030”
One Socio‐Economic vision and Two mitigation scenarios 36
The Socio‐economic Vision is mainly followed after Decision 2631/QD‐TTg
Unit 2011 2030 2030/2011Population persons 7,590,138 10,869,565 1.4No. of households households 1,789,630 3,623,188 2.0GDP per capita mil. Dongs 67 256 3.8GDP bil. Dongs 509,334 2,783,178 5.5Passenger transport demand mil.per.km 68,339 145,121 2.1Freight transport demand mil.ton.km 73,485 350,944 4.8
Scenario Characteristics
Businessas Usual (BaU)
‐ Socio‐economic assumptions in the above table‐ Share of public transport mode complies with Decision 568/QG‐TTg with the assumption that only 50% of the urban public transport is constructed
‐ Energy intensity (Energy/GDP reduction) reduction more than 20% in 2030 compared with 2011 following after Decision No.1393/QD‐TTg
Counter Measure (CM)
‐ Socio‐economic assumptions in the above table‐ Share of public transport mode complies with Decision 568/QG‐TTg with the assumption of 100% implementation‐ Additional measures are implemented to achieve the CO2 emission reduction more than 20% reduction compared with 2030BaU
Two scenarios are developed for the analysis
Final energy consumption and CO2 emissionRapid growth of driving forces (GDP, population, transport demand) leads to the increasing consumption of energy and CO2emission.
Industry is the main energy consumer (52%) and CO2 emitter (55%)
37
2011 2030BaU 2030CMEnergy intensity (toe/bil. Dongs) 18.5 13.6 10.8CO2 emission per GDP (tCO2/bil. Dongs) 70.0 58.1 41.4CO2 emission per capita (tCO2) 4.7 14.9 10.6
Energy intensity in 2030BaU reduces 26% compared with 2011,which complies with Decision 2631/QD‐TTg (20%) and Decision 1393/QD‐TTg (17 %)
2011 2030BaU BaU/2011Final energy consumption (ktoe) 9,404 37,894 4.0CO2 emission (ktCO2) 35,649 161,818 4.5
CO2 emission and its reduction
• By the 2030 CM scenario, the direct CO2 emission reduction is expected to 21% of total emission of Business as Usual (2030BaU)
• In addition to it, 8% reduction is expected from the mitigation of grid power
38
36
162
115
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2011 2030BaU 2030CM
MtCO
2
Grid power
Freight transport
Passenger transport
Residential
Commercial
Industry
Agriculture
CO2 emission
Grid power (12.3)
Freight transport (5.0)
Passenger transport (3.8)
Residential (7.3)
Commercial (8.8)
Industry (9.3)
Agriculture (0.007)
CO2 emission (115.4)
8%
(34.2 MtCO2)21%
Proposal of Mitigation Actions and their Impacts
To realize this 21% reduction, FIVE actions are proposed
39
Agricultureand
IndustryCommercial Residential
Passengertransport
Freighttransport
Total(ktCO2)
Reductionshare
Action 1.Green agriculture and industry(Energy efficient equipment, fuel shift)
9,309 0 0 0 0 9,309 27%
Action 2.Green house and building(Energy efficient equipment, fuel shift)
0 6,578 4,910 0 0 11,489 34%
Action 3.Diffusion of energy saving behavior(Appropriate use of energy device)
0 2,181 2,339 0 0 4,520 13%
Action 4.Smart transportation system(Energy efficient vehicle, modal shift)
0 0 0 3,597 4,870 8,467 25%
Action 5.Growth of renewable energy(Solar, biofuel, CNG)
0 25 24 163 159 370 1%
Total (ktCO2) 9,309 8,784 7,273 3,760 5,029 34,155 100%Reduction share 27% 26% 21% 11% 15% 100%
Low carbon actions
Sector
Next step
40
TimelineOct 12‐14, SATREPS progress meeting@TsukubaNov 24‐26, LoCARNet annual meeting@Bogor, IndonesiaNov 4‐7, Global RCE (Regional Centers of Expertise on ESD) [Iskandar Malaysia as candidate]@OkayamaDec 1‐12, COP20@Peru (Dec 11 at 16:45‐18:15 , side event of NIES and UTM)Jan 12‐, Osaka‐HCMC dialogue@HCMCFeb 4‐5, SATREPS progress meeting@Johor Bahru (JB)Feb 7, Iskandar Malaysia Sustainable and Low Carbon Schools Exhibition 2015@JBFeb 8, The first International Forum on the “FutureCity” Initiative by Cabinet Secretariat@JBFeb 9‐10, The 6th High Level Seminar on Environmentally Sustainable Cities by MOEJ@JB 41
International Forum on the “FutureCity” Initiativeby Regional Revitalization Office, Cabinet Secretariat, Government of Japan
The First Forum, Feb 21, 2012@Tokyo10 名の海外招聘者をはじめ、JICA 主催の研修プロ
グラムで参加されたアジア諸国等のオピニオンリーダー43 名の他、国内参加者を含め、合計約600 名の参加。
The Second Forum, Feb 16, 2013@Shimokawa, Hokkaido坂本内閣府副大臣を始め、9名の海外招へい者、JICA 主催の研修プログラムに参加したアジア諸国等のオピニオンリーダー39 名、その他、国内参加者を含め、合計27 か国、約300 名の方々が参加。2月17日に森林サイドイベントを実施、藤野が鼎談のモデレーターを担当
The Third Forum, Oct 19, 2013@Kitakyushu関口内閣府副大臣を始め、11名の海外招へい者、JICA主催の研修プログラムに参加したアジア諸国等のオピニオンリーダー51名、その他、国内参加者を含め、合計43の国と地域から、約400名の参加。藤野がポスターセッション担当。
Prof. Ho and Mr. Boyd joined as experts of JICA FCI courses. Then 2‐3 experts join contiuously.
Dato’ Ismail joined “econmy” panel discussion
Dr. Zaleha (JPBD) joined “evaluation” panel discussion. The mayor of MBJB joined at Asia Mayor Summit.
The fourth forum will be held in Higashi‐matsushima, Japan in 6th Dec 2014. Cabinet office organize the first form outside Japan in 8‐9th Feb 2015 in JB, Malaysia.
https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/tiiki/kankyo/en/event/index.html
17th Oct, 2014, Kita Nihon Shimbun (Local Newspaper in Toyama, Japan)
The 6th High Level Seminar on Environmentally Sustainable Cities will be held in Johor Bahru on 9th and 10th Feb 2015
(mainly sponsored by Ministry of the Environment Japan (MOEJ))
http://www.hls‐esc.org/
Sustainable Low‐Carbon Asia comes from design,
imagination and
co‐working…
Let’s work [email protected] 45