An Update on the Chinese xEV Market, and a Technical ... · An Update on the Chinese xEV Market, and a Technical Comparison of its Batteries

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Copyright 2016

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An Update on the Chinese xEV Market,

and a Technical Comparison of its Batteries

呂學隆 Hsueh-lung Lu (Mark)

Industrial Economics & Knowledge Center (IEK)

Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) ,Taiwan

2016/10/19

World Mobility Summit 2016

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ITRI – Home of Taiwan’s High-tech Research

1

現況(人力、專利、新創公司、研發單位數)

Information and Communications

Electronics and Optoelectronics

Material, Chemical and Nanotechnology

Mechanical and Systems

Medical Device and Biomedical

Green Energy and Environment

Industrial Economics & Knowledge Center

(IEK)

Cross-disciplinary research

Provide market planning service

Consultation for Taiwan government

Promote international collaboration

Total Staff: 5,806

Ph.D: 1,372

Master: 3,207

Bachelor: 1,227

Alumni: 23,717

Total Patents

24,010

Startups &Spinoffs (~2015)

240

Industry Services (~2015)

Provided Services：18,351

Transferred Technologies：642

2016.2.1


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Outline

What is happening in the Chinese xEV market now and what will happen in the future?

The market situation of Chinese xEV development and cellmakers’ strategies

Summary: Chinese EV Market Notes in 2016~2017

2


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Reasons to Promote xEVs in China:

Vehicle Energy-Saving Control

3

All the developed/developing countries have

159g CO2/km is challenge for ICE

117g CO2/km in 2020?!

Source: CEPRI, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2015/05)


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Reasons to Promote xEVs in China: PM 2.5 Problem

4

Air pollution

hurts everyone

in Beijing!

28% of the

PM2.5 from

transportation

Suspend the

vehicle licenses

to control ICE

vehicle numbers

No license

regulation for

xEVs,

motivating

people to buy

Source:邹毅的邹微博 http://www.weibo.com/u/1000481815#_loginLayer_1452656060159 (2015/12)


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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E

PHEV 3038 29715 83610 280000

BEV 1217 2300 4900 8159 12791 14604 45048 247482 245.288

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

China: The 1st EV Shipment Market in 2015 & 2016

5

Chinese xEV Annual Sales Development (Units/CY)

Note: Data before 2013 is total units, and the production units in 2014=78499, 2015=340,471

Source: Chinese Association of Automobile Manufacturers (2016/09)

74763

Chinese EV sales in 2014: 74,763, annual growth rate= 323% 2015 sales: 331,092 shipments, annual growth rate= 343% From Jan. to Aug., 2016: 245,288 units, growth rate= 116%,

From Jan. to Aug., 2016:

BEV passenger cars =126,197 (growth 152.2%), PHEV passenger cars =57,632 (growth 78.5%)

BEV commercial cars (Buses mainly) =57,622 (137.6%), PHEV commercial cars = 7,472 (-15.2%)

17642

331092

(~530,000)?


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Passenger xEV: Basically Follow the Double Growth Step

6Source: CPCA, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2016/09)

Chinese Passenger xEV Monthly Sales in 2015&2016 (Units/Month)

Q4 shipments almost equal the Q1~Q3 sum up in 2015, but it means this December should have over

160K shipment???

According to the material/ battery cells shipment in Sep. & Oct., Passenger xEV can achieve “double”

target

10000 units


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BEV Passenger Seems More Preferred in Chinese Market

5966

37615044

6923

9045 9139 916182307782

6331

10579

13780

17163

24869

2031821629

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

PHEV Passenger BEV Passenger


Chinese Passenger xEV Monthly Sales in 2016 (Units/Month)

BEV sales increased monthly: Subsidies support result

PHEV sales have begun falling?!


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BYD Still Leads the Best Selling Models


Jan.~Aug. 2016 Chinese xEV Accumulated Sales by Models (Units/CY)

345

420

548

910

1111

1130

1187

1347

1675

2292

3302

3604

5264

5460

5968

6327

6436

6649

7069

7797

8227

8233

9527

11649

12042

12222

12798

15266

24668

Dongfeng NissanE30

BMW i5

Volvo S60L

SAIC Roewe E50

Zotye Ttev

BYD Denza

Chery QQ

Dongfeng NissanLeaf

SAIC Roewe E950

GAC Trumpchi GA5

BJEV Shenbao D70

Chana EADO

BYD Qin EV

Zotye E200

Geely K17

BJEV Shenbao D50

Geely DH EV

Zotye Cloud100

BYD e5

Kandi Panda

Chery eQ

JMC E100

Geely ZD

BYD e6

JAC iEV

SAIC Roewe550

BJ E Series

BYD Qin

BYD Tang

• 6 models have sold over 10K, 25 models

have sold over 1K

• BYD Tang & Qin occupied top 2 & No.6

• BJEV, SAIC, JAC, Geely, Zotye

• Begin to shift from LFP to NMC

• Compact BEV (A00, A0, A) leading


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BYD Still Leads the Best Selling Models


Jan.~Aug. 2016 Chinese xEV Accumulated Sales by Models (Units/CY)

Models Chinese Name ClassSale units in 2016

Jan.~Aug.

Battery Capa

kWhBattery Supplier

BYD Tang 比亞迪唐 B 24668 18.4BYD PHEV SUV LFP

BYD Qin 比亞迪秦 A 15266 13BYD PHEV Car LFP

BJ E Series 北汽E系列 A0 12798 30.4BJSK, CATL, GXGK, BEV Car NMC

SAIC Roewe550 上汽榮威550 A 12222 11.8Wanxiang A123 PHEV Car LFP

JAC iEV 江淮和悅iEV A0 12042 23GXGK, Lishen BEV Car LFP

BYD e6 比亞迪e6 A 11649 64.5BYD BEV Car LFMP

Geely ZD 知豆 A00 9527 18Lishen BEV Car NMC

JMC E100 江鈴E100 A00 8233 15.4Sinopoly BEV Car NMC

Chery eQ 奇瑞eQ A00 8227 22.4Wanxiang A123 BEV Car NMC

Kandi Panda 康迪熊貓 A00 7797 26.4Lishen, Cham(創明) BEV Car NMC

BYD e5 比亞迪e5 A 7069 47.5BYD BEV Car LFP

Zotye Cloud100 眾泰雲100 A00 6649 22BAK, Foster,

GreatpowerBEV Car NMC

Geely DH EV 吉利帝豪EV A 6436 45.3CATL BEV Car NMC

BJEV Shenbao D50 北汽紳寶D50 A 6327 38CATL BEV Car NMC

Geely K17 全球鷹K17 A00 5968 45.3CATL BEV Car NMC

Zotye E200 眾泰E200 A00 5460 24.5BAK, Wina BEV Car NMC

BYD Qin EV 比亞迪秦EV A 5264 47.5BYD BEV Car LFP

Chana EADO 長安逸動 A 3604 30Wanxiang A123 BEV Car NMC

BJEV Shenbao D70 北汽紳寶X25 A0 3302 18.6CATL BEV Car NMC

GAC Trumpchi GA5 廣汽傳祺GA5 B 2292 13CATL, Optimum PHEV Car NMC

SAIC Roewe E950 上汽榮威E50 B 1675 11.8Wanxiang A123 PHEV Car LFP

Dongfeng NissanLeaf 東風日產晨風 A 1347 24AESC BEV Car LMO

Chery QQ 奇瑞QQ A00 1187 23Wanxiang A123, Lishen BEV Car NMC

BYD Denza 比亞迪騰勢 B 1130 47.5BYD BEV Car LFP

Zotye TTev 眾泰TT ev A00 1111 22BAK, Foster,

GreatpowerBEV Car NMC

SAIC Roewe E50 上汽榮威E50 A00 910 22.4Wanxiang A123 BEV Car NMC

Volvo S60L Volvo S60L B 548 8GXGK PHEV Car NMC

BMW i5 華晨寶馬5系 C 420 11.4CATL PHEV Car NMC

Dongfeng NissanE30 東風風神E30 A00 345 20.5AESC BEV Car LMO


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Chinese E-Bus Shipments Effected by the “Subsidy Fraud”

10Source: MIIT, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2016/09)

2016 Chinese E-Buses Sales by OEMs (Units)

Sales Units

YutongZhongto

ngBYD BAIC Hager Ankai

NanjingKL

AsiastarShangr

aoXiamen

KLSuchi DFAC Yangtse Howo

KLWagon

Shaolin Others Sunwin ShuduWuzhou

longChanga

n

NEV Bus 8337 6824 4124 2717 2243 2173 1601 1549 1271 1227 1064 1013 998 836 766 471 279 212 108 103 100

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

• Total=38,016 units

• The promotion delayed in Jan. & Feb.,

recovered in Q2 & Q3 but slightly

• BEV Buses YoY%=137.6%

• PHEV Buses YoY%=-15.2%

• BEV Bus Prefered

• Medium/ Large Bus design ratio increased

• Still use LFP battery only


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After the Shock of “Subsidy Fraud”

11Source: ITRI/IEK Analysis (2016/09)

2015 Subsidies Fraud:

76,374 units related sales, trick over 9.27 billion RMB$

Licensed but no real xEV: 3,547 units

Real xEV but not battery: 19,158

xEV sold but no use: middle user like rent service 30,404. End-user: 21,362

Easier to apply for subsidiesEarly to pay the subsidiesNo battery source controls

More difficult and complicated Delays to payment of subsidiesxEV production identify system

No change for the subsidies “stepping down”

Provide multiple but no payment motivations


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Multiple Motivations Except Financial Subsidies


Detailed draft of carbon/ZEV

trading for ICE has been

disclosed

National target: 117g CO2/km,

5L/100km in 2020

ICE improvement: 1.5~2% per yr

Chinese OEMs need to be allocated

by the market share

Carbon emission rights can be

traded

xEV promoting will be treated as

“positive factors” to the judgment of

production identification

xEV promoting will be treated as the

worthy right to sell

Wondering:

How to judge the price?

HEV, LVS still can deduct some CO2

emissions, how to treat them?


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NMC Regulations for E-buses May Continue in 2017

Discuss the safety test methods, and specs

•Which items?

•Who judges?

•How to test?

Draft of the managing regulations

• (國聯汽車動力研究院)

Decide on the testing institute

•Who judges the test?

Publish the process as policies

Bus companies begin to apply for NMC E-bus models for subsidies


Feb.2016

2 different

discussions

6 months by

past experience

For the NMC battery manufacturers:

• There are totally no NMC regulations on passenger xEVs!!!

• After 6 months, everything is under development…..


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Chinese xEV OEMs Mainly Adopt Local

Battery Suppliers but Multiple SourcesOEMs Battery Suppliers

BYD

BAIC

Zotye

Chana

Chery

SAIC

FAW

Yutong

JAC



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The Main Chinese E-Bus Battery Suppliers


E-Bus OEMs Battery Suppliers

Yutong Lead: Chaowei、Johnson Control

NiMH: PEVE

EDLC: Maxwell

LIB: CATL, MGL, BAK, CALB, A123, Optimum

BYD BYD in-house

Suchao KL GXGK, CATL, Maxwell, Lishen, Wanxiang A123

Nanjing KL GXGK, Optimum, Lishen, CALB, Wine, EVE, Wanxiang A123,

CATL

Xiamen KL CATL, MGL, Wanxiang A123, CALB, Lishen, Microvast,

Zhongtong Lishen, CALB, MGL, Wine, A123, Microvast, GXGK, EVE

CSR Times Maxwell, GXGK, A123, CATL, Coslight, LGC

Ankai Microvast, GXGK, A123, Optimum, Lishen, BAK

BAIC MGL, Pride, Microvast

Sunwin MGL, A123, CATL, GXGK, Optimum

Wuchoulong Optimum, CATL, Lishen, Coslight, Boston Power, Microvast

Dongfeng E-Bus Lishen, Microvast, Optimum, CALB, GXGK, EVE


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Chinese xEV Battery Pack Supply Status

16

Passenger OEM/Models Battery Pack Suppliers/ Cell

Source

Passenger OEM/Models Battery Pack Suppliers/ Cell Source

JAV (iEV)

1.GXGK(GXGK)

Zotye Cloud 100

1.Foster(Foster)

2.華霆動力(Lishen) 2.BAK(BAK)

3.蘇州安靠(蘇州安靠)3.JAC in-house (CATL、Lishen)4.湖南桑頓(湖南桑頓)

Foton(迷笛)

1.Pride (CATL)

Chery 瑞麒

1.BAK(BAK)

2.萬向A123(萬向A123)2.億馬先鋒(BAK)3.天津捷威(天津捷威)

BJEV(EV150/200)

1.Pride (CATL) Chery eQ 萬向A123(萬向A123)

2.BESK(SK) SAIC 榮威E50 捷新動力(萬向A123)3.Coslight (Coslight)

SAIC 550PHEV捷新動力(萬向A123)

4.Boston power(Boston Power)

BJEV(威旺307EV)

Coslight (Coslight)

四川野馬汽車野馬牌

1.億能電子(Boston Power)

2.CALB(CALB)

3.環宇賽爾(環宇賽爾)

BYD

1.BYD(BYD)

Kandi

1.萬向A123(萬向A123)

2.杭州大有科技(Sinopoly)

3.Kandi in-house (萬向A123、Lishen、山東衡遠)

Dongfeng(風神E30系列)

1.天津捷威(天津捷威)

Geely ZD

1.山東知豆電池集成(Boston Power)

2.上海捷新(A123) 2.山東新大洋電動車有限公司(DFD)3.佳貝思(佳貝思)

4.航天電源(航天電源)

Dongfeng Leaf AESC(AESC) Geely 美日牌 CATL(CATL)

GAC(傳棋)1.萬向A123(萬向A123)

FAW PHEVCATL(CATL)

2.Lishen(Lishen)

Zotye朗悅1.萬向A123(萬向A123)

FAW 奔騰B50CATL(CATL)

2.杰能動力(CALB) 2.富奧汽車零部件(Lishen、BAK)

Zotye 5008EV 紐貝耳(CALB) BMW 530Le Bosch (SDI)

Zotye ZD

1.DFD(DFD)

Zotye 2008

1.紐貝耳(浙江興海、河南海奧通)

2.山東新大洋(Boston Power) 2.杭州杰能動力(山東潤峰)

3. 1.GXGK(GXGK) 3.杭州杰能動力(CALB)

SKIO E20 時空能源(DFD、Lishen)

Source: ITRI/IEK Analysis (2016/10)


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Chinese E-Bus Battery Pack Supply Status

17

E-Bus OEM/Models Battery Pack Suppliers/ Cell Source E-Bus OEM/Models Battery Pack Suppliers/ Cell

Source

Wuchoulong

1.五洲龍電源科技(五洲龍電源科技)

Dongfeng

1.CALB(CALB)

2.Optimum(Optimum) 2.GXGK(GXGK)

3.Coslight(Coslight) 3.Lishen(Lishen)4.Lishen(Lishen) 4.Optimum(Optimum)5.Boston Power(Boston Power) 5.浙江佳貝思(浙江佳貝思)6.國能電池(國能電池) 6.駱駝電池(駱駝電池)7.Microvast(Microvast) 7.海博思創(LGC)

重慶恆通

1.Microvast(Microvast) 8.時空能源(Lishen)2.Coslight(Coslight) 9.蘇州萊賽(Lishen)3.蘇州宇量(蘇州宇量)

10.淄博正華(CALB)4.天津松正(萬向A123)

5.國能電池(國能電池) 11.天津中聚(Sinopoly)

Ankai

1.GXGK(GXGK)

南車時代CSR

1.CSR(萬向A123、Coslight、CATL)

2.Lishen(Lishen) 2.CATL(CATL)

3.天津松正(萬向A123) 3.海博思創(LGC)

4.萬向(萬向A123) 4.科易動力(Lishen)

5.廣州力柏(廣州力柏) 5.系統電子(McNair)

6.捷星新能源(BAK)

Sunwin

1.中信國安盟固利(盟固利)

FAW

1.Pride (CATL) 2.GXGK(GXGK)

2.中信國安盟固利(盟固利) 3.天津松正(萬向A123)

3.Microvast(Microvast) 4.萬向(萬向A123)

4..天津松正(萬向A123)

Xiamen KL Wagon

1.Optimum(Optimum)

5.山東Wina(山東Wina) 2.廈門華鋰(廈門華鋰)

3.CATL(CATL)

4.億能電子(Sinopoly)

5.Microvast(Microvast)

6.安耐信(安耐信)



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Chinese EV Battery Shipments in 2015: 19.83GWh


MWh/yrBYD355518%

CATL242712%

GXGK17329%

Lishen13067%

Wanxiang A1239795%

Boston Power

8854%

Optimum7114%

SKI6553%

Coslight5743%

CALB5723%

Sinopoly4932%

Wina3972%

MGL2551%

BAK2321%

Microvast1971%

Others486725%


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The Planning Production Capability at the End of

2016: 64GWh, 57 Companies

Company 2014 Production Capacity GWh

2015 Production Capacity GWh

2016 Production Capacity GWh

Future

BYD 1.6 4.5 10 30

CATL 0.48 1.4 6 30

GXGK 0.6 2.3 5.3 20

Lishen 0.5 1.3 2.3 4

Optimum 0.42 1 5 11

Boston Power 0.4 1 1.5

DFD 0.2 0.5 1.9

CALB 0.4 0.8 2 6

BAK 0.42 0.6 1.2 2

Coslight 0.3 0.5 1

A123 0.2 1 2 5

Wine 0.1 0.5 1

Tianneng 0 1.3 2.3

Narada 0.2 1.2 2

Others 43 companies

8.1 8.3 10.8

13.92 16.2 64.3


Totally 57 companies passed the qualification in the Chinese xEV battery

Leading companies face line-up order and continue to enlarge the production capacity


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BYD: From LFP to LFMP/NMC

20

To satisfy xEV & E-Bus demand, BYD continues to increase production capacity

10GWh/yr production capacity in Shenzhen by the end of 2016, additional 6GWh/yr new factory by the end of 2019 in Chinghai province

Source: BYD, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2015/06)

Sales volume (GWh)

Vehicle quantity up to sales volume (×10000)

EVBUS HEV


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BYD: From LFP to LFMP/NMC

21

To satisfy xEV & E-Bus demand, BYD continues to increase production capacity

10GWh/yr totally in Shenzhen by the end of 2016, additional 6GWh/yr new factory by the end of 2019 in Chinghai province

Source: BYD, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2015/06)


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Power Battery is One of the Key Factors to

BEV Performance

22Source: BJEV (2016/05)


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The Performance Improvement of Battery of

BJEV BEV Design



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BJEV Overall Thermal Management Scheme

to Meet Low Temperature Applied Demand



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CATL: Leading Company with International Experience

25

Responsible for all the xEV, ESS business in ATL group

Cooperation experience with BMW, VW on 12V/48V, VDA size of PHEV

Mainly focuses on VDA prismatic/pouch size, but willing to customize designs for E-buses

Chinese customers: Geely, FAW, CSR Times, XMKLM, Yutong, Zhongtong

Pride’s customers: BAIC, Chana, Zotye, Shifeng

2GWh production capacity at the end of 2016

Source: Company Data, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2015/06)


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26

Responsible for all the xEV, ESS business in ATL group

Cooperation experience with BMW, VW on 12V/48V, VDA size of PHEV

Mainly focuses on VDA prismatic/pouch size, but willing to customize designs for E-buses

Chinese customers: Geely, FAW, CSR Times, XMKLM, Yutong, Zhongtong

Pride’s customers: BAIC, Chana, Zotye, Shifeng

Source: Company Data, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2015/06)


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27Source: CATL, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2015/11)

Technology Demonstration

Sample-A ready for

qualification

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

20

14

Q1

20

14

Q2

20

14

Q3

20

14

Q4

20

15

Q1

20

15

Q2

20

15

Q3

20

15

Q4

20

16

Q1

20

16

Q2

20

16

Q3

20

16

Q4

20

17

Q1

20

17

Q2

20

17

Q3

20

17

Q4

20

18

Q1

20

18

Q2

20

18

Q3

20

18

Q4

20

19

Q1

20

19

Q2

20

19

Q3

20

19

Q4

ISS VDA-LV(T15/L150/H150mm)

HEV VDA-HEV(T12.5/L120/H85mm)

PHEV VDA-PHEV1(T21/L173/H85mm)

VDA-PHEV2(T26.5/L148/H91mm)

BEV VDA-PHEV2(T26.5/L148/H91mm)

ATL-J1(T47.5/L173/H126mm)

◆20AhP/E=30

-30~80℃ Operation

◆20AhP/E=30

-40~80℃ Operation

◆6AhP/E=50

◆10AhP/E=50

◆31Ah150Wh/kg

350Wh/L

◆37Ah180Wh/kg

450Wh/L

◆37Ah165Wh/kg

390Wh/L

◆42Ah180Wh/kg

435Wh/L

◆50Ah210Wh/kg

520Wh/L

◆45Ah190Wh/kg

470Wh/L

◆50Ah210Wh/kg

520Wh/L

◆55Ah240Wh/kg

570Wh/L

◆70Ah+300Wh/kg

700Wh/L

◆120Ah180Wh/kg

450Wh/L

◆160Ah240Wh/kg

600Wh/L


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CATL: Module & Pack Safety Design Strategy

28Source: CATL (2016/03)


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CATL Thermal Management Design Strategy

29Source: CATL (2016/03)


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GXGK: LFP/NCM Battery Manufacturer

30Source: Company Data, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2015/06)


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GXGK: LFP Battery Manufacturer

31Source: Company Data, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2015/06)


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The Assessment of Mini Electric Car and Mini Short

Distance Electric Vehicles

32

Low-speed EVs are upgrading to mini EVs

Features Miniature, Light-weight, Short-distance, Economical

Type 3-3-3 Cost 30,000 RMB, 3m long, 3 seats, Use the same lithium-ion batteries as electric bicycles

Management: Treated the same as four-wheel motorcycles

Regulations for management and support in the future are still under discussion



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All Rights Reserved 33

Chinese EV Market Notes in 2016~2017


2014/15 were good years, so how is 2016 and the future?

xEV application occupied 34% of the Chinese LIB production in 2015

For the new subsidies decrease, it’s difficult to create another 300~% YoY growth

Compact BEV & Short length E-buses still preferred in 2016

Small and light design keep less batteries, RMB$40K~80K after subsidies

E-bus business model is B2G (local government/transportation), getting the KPI

from central government is the only issue

Opportunities exist in many aspects…

Special use xEV may the next good target for public use

Charging infra: already released subsidies system

Re-use/ recycle: battery scope is enough to support the business, and policies just

under discussion

Technologies improvement: low temperature suffer and consistency

Low-speed EV (LEV): can develop over 700K units without any policy supporting

Risks for the new entrants & foreign companies!!!

Protectionism & Political Effects!!!!!

Safety accidents exists and may effect the future product development

Except some leading companies, batteries quality is uneven between 2-tier

suppliers


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http://ieknet.iek.org.tw

以上簡報所提供之資訊，在尖端科技發展與產業變動中，無法保證資訊的時效性及完整性，使用者應自行承擔因使用本簡報資料可能產生之任何損害。著作權歸工研院所有，非經書面允許，不得以任何形式進行局部或全部之重製、公開傳輸、改作、散布或其他利用本簡報資料之行為。Given the rapid pace of change in cutting-edge technology and industry development, the timeliness and comprehensiveness of the information included in this presentation cannot be guaranteed by ITRI.

Users of this presentation shall bear full liability for any injury or loss that may be sustained as a result. The Copyright of this presentation belongs to ITRI and none of this presentation, either in part or in

whole, in any form, may be reproduced, publicly transmitted, modified or distributed or used by other means without permission from ITRI.

Thank you

呂學隆 Mark Lu工研院產業經濟與趨勢研究中心資深產業分析師Certified Industrial Analyst

Industrial Economics & Knowledge Center (IEK)

Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI)

Address: Rm.302, Bldg.10, 195 Sec. 4, ChungHsing Rd.

Chutung, Hsinchu, Taiwan 310, R.O.C.

新竹縣竹東鎮中興路四段195號10館302室Email：[email protected]

TEL:+886-3-5912495

34


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Strong Policies for Demonstrations & Initiatives

35

Source: China State Council , ITRI/IEK Analysis (2015/01)

2014

•Policy to government utility cars

•Tax discount: sales tax, Purchasing

tax & Value-added tax for R&D

•Subsidy for the charging infra

•Lower expense for xEV charging

electricity

•(Future carbon/ZEV

trading for ICE)


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Comparison of the Chinese xEV Subsidy Policies between

2013~2015 & 2016~2020

36

Note: Test under Chinese GB/T 18386《電動汽車能量消耗率和續駛里程試驗方法》

Source: MIIT, ITRI/IEK Analysis (2016/01)

According to the subsidies policy 2016-2020, the xEV purchasing subsidies will continue from 2016 to 2020

“Double 100”: BEV subsidy barrier from R=80km to R=100km, and maximum speed =100km/hr

Use subsidies level in 2016 as standard: Decrease by 20% between Jan., 2017 and Dec., 2018. Decrease by a further 20% of the 2016 amount between Jan., 2019 and Dec., 2020

The highest subsidies ratio for customer: Nissan Leaf can take USD$12,680~16,180 subsidies in China

2013-2020 NEV Subsidy PoliciesSubsidies(K RMB)

R= Distance under the electric power per charging(km)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-2018 2019-2020

BEV passenger car

80≤R＜150 35K 33.25K 31.5K

100≤R＜150 25K 20K 15K

150≤R＜250 50K 47.5K 45K 45K 36K 27K

R≥250 60K 57K 54K 55K 44K 33K

PHEV/REEV

passenger car R≥50 35K 33.25K 31.5K

FCEV 200K 190K 180K 200K 200K 200K


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Supporting Policies will be Effective between 2016-2020

37

Note: E=Energy consumption rate= Energy consumption (Wh)/driving range (km),

M=maximum authorized pay mass when maximum authorized pay mass ≤180kg, M=180kg when 180kg ≤ maximum

authorized pay mass < 360kg, M = 0.5*maximum authorized pay mass when maximum authorized pay mass > 360kg

Test under Chinese GB/T 18386《電動汽車能量消耗率和續駛里程試驗方法》


Decreased subsidy policies in 2016 resulted in the booming Nov. & Dec.

From bus length judgment to distance per charge & Ekg

17 cities announced they will provide additional 1:1 subsidies on xEV purchases

Government prefers small buses, and requests each city purchase a minimum number

2016-2020 NEV Bus Subsidy Policies

E-Bus

Subsidies(K RMB)

(Ekg=E/M,Wh/km·kg)

Standard E-bus length（10m＜Bus length≤12m）R= Distance under the electric power per charging(km)

6≤R＜20 20≤R＜50 50≤R＜100 100≤R＜150 150≤R＜250 R≥250

BEV Bus

Ekg<0.25 220 260 300 350 420 500

0.25≤Ekg<0.35 200 240 280 320 380 460

0.35≤Ekg<0.5 180 220 240 280 340 420

0.5≤Ekg<0.6 160 180 200 250 300 360

0.6≤Ekg<0.7 120 140 160 200 240 300

PHEV/REEV Bus ／／ 200 230 250

2013-2015 NEV Bus Subsidy Policies

Bus meter length

K RMB 6≤L<8 8≤L<10 L>10

BEV Bus 300 400 500

PHEV (EREV) Bus 250


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Chinese xEV Subsidy Policies Development in 2016Q1

38

Note: Test under Chinese GB/T 18386《電動汽車能量消耗率和續駛里程試驗方法》


“Subsidy fraud” exists and affects central & local governments’ willingness to continue

The results of the investigation will be disclosed before the end of May

It will be increasingly more difficult and complicated to take NEV subsidies in the future

After the “National People’s Congress” and “Chinese People’s Political Consultative Congress”, the local cities/areas subsidy policies may gradually be disclosed

2013-2020 NEV Subsidy PoliciesSubsidies (K RMB)

R= Distance under the electric power per charging (km)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-2018 2019-2020

BEV

passenger cars

80≤R＜150 35K 33.25K 31.5K

100≤R＜150 25K 20K 15K

150≤R＜250 50K 47.5K 45K 45K 36K 27K

R≥250 60K 57K 54K 55K 44K 33K

PHEV/REEV

passenger

cars

R≥50 35K 33.25K 31.5K 30KNot

confirmed

Not

confirmed

FCEV 200K 190K 180K 200K 200K 200K


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Chinese xEV Supporting Policies Development in 2016Q1

39

Note: E=Energy consumption rate = Energy consumption (Wh)/driving range (km),

M=maximum authorized pay mass when maximum authorized pay mass ≤180kg, M=180kg when 180kg ≤ maximum

authorized pay mass < 360kg, M = 0.5*maximum authorized pay mass when maximum authorized pay mass > 360kg

Test under Chinese GB/T 18386《電動汽車能量消耗率和續駛里程試驗方法》


New supporting and “real subsidy” policy to encourage charging infra Government now offering specific subsidies to promote special use xEVs

The larger battery capacity, the more money you can receive…

Detailed draft of carbon/ZEV trading for ICE has been disclosed

2016-2020 NEV Bus Subsidy PoliciesE-Bus

Subsidies(K RMB)

(Ekg=E/M,Wh/km·kg)

Standard E-bus length（10m＜Bus length≤12m）R= Distance under the electric power per charging(km)

6≤R＜20 20≤R＜50 50≤R＜100 100≤R＜150 150≤R＜250 R≥250

BEV Bus

Ekg<0.25 220 260 300 350 420 500

0.25≤Ekg<0.35 200 240 280 320 380 460

0.35≤Ekg<0.5 180 220 240 280 340 420

0.5≤Ekg<0.6 160 180 200 250 300 360

0.6≤Ekg<0.7 120 140 160 200 240 300

PHEV/REEV Bus ／／ 200 230 250

Note: In 2016, for BEV/PHEV special use vehicles (Trucks, Mail vans, Road

cleaners, Garbage trucks):

Subsidies by Battery Capacity: RMB$1,800/kWh

(But Chinese government is preparing to differentiate by usage and

performance policies)


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Comparison of the Chinese xEV Subsidy

Policies between 2013/15 & 2016/20


•Policy to government utility cars

•Tax discount: sales tax, Purchasing tax &

Value-added tax for R&D

•No license lotto and purchasing expense

•Subsidy for the charging infra

•Lower expense for xEV charging electricity

•Slight Details of encouragement for battery 3R

•Details of subsidies for city charging infra

•Carbon / Zero emission trading

Documents

An Update on the Chinese xEV Market, and a Technical ... · An Update on the Chinese xEV Market, and a Technical Comparison of its Batteries