AR-01 Garin-Hart-Yang for Chad Causey (August 2010)

8/9/2019 AR-01 Garin-Hart-Yang for Chad Causey (August 2010)

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From: Candace MartinSent: Monday, August 23, 2010 8:23 AMSubject: MEMO: 2010, The First Congressional District and Chad Causey

To: Interested Parties

From: Causey for Congress Campaign

Re: 2010, the First Congressional District and Chad Causey

To those who follow politics, it is no secret that 2010 is an incredibly tough environmentto run for public office across the country. The pundits are constantly makingcomparisons to 1994. It should be noted that 2010 is not 1994 in the First District ofArkansas. Heres why:

Arkansas is a special place where we have a unique relationship with our elected

officials. Arkansans want someone who shoots straight with them; even when the newsis not good. They do not tolerate lies. They want a candidate who is ready to work hardand will shake every hand in the room, not sit on the sidelines and wait.

It is often said that the First Congressional District of Arkansas has not elected aRepublican since Reconstruction. While that is a fact, when the seat is open, it is always acompetitive race between the two major parties. In 1992 and in 1996, both races wereclose, with the Democratic candidate ultimately winning. Largely, this was due to thehard work of the winning candidate and the lack of a quality Republican candidate.

The race this year in the First District is shaping up to be similar. Chad Causey started

the race with statistically 0% name recognition and has been down in polls, internal orpublic, since getting in the race. The only public poll he came out on top was the runoffelection on June 8. Since then, the polls released by his opponent and others have shownhim down but within the margin of error.

Causeys opponent, Rick Crawford, is not going to be able to coast to victory due to the

environment. There are too many problems with his candidacy.

Facts about Rick Crawford that do not resonate with Arkansans:

-He graduated high school in New Hampshire.

- He declared bankruptcy in Missouri for $12,000, largely due to the fact he wasliving beyond his means.

- When confronted about his bankruptcy by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, helied.

- He supports risking Social Security in the stock market.


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- He supports outsourcing and protecting tax breaks for companies that shipAmerican jobs overseas.

In a poll conducted August 16-18, with a sample size of 404, by Garin-Hart-YangResearch Group using live callers discovered encouraging results:

The candidates in this year's election for U.S. Congress in this district are ChadCausey, the Democrat, and Rick Crawford, the Republican. Given this choice,would you vote for Chad Causey or Rick Crawford in the election for U.S.Congress?

Chad Causey 40Rick Crawford 41Not sure 12

The Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, the political division of Peter D. Hart Research

Associates, is one of the most respected and successful political polling firms in thecountry for Democratic candidates. The firm has assisted in more than 400 politicalcampaigns and counts among its current clients 10 members of the U.S. Senate, 16members of the U.S. House of Representatives, and five sitting governors.

Zata3 also conducted a survey on our race on 7-23-10. They have previously polledArkansas for TalkBusiness.net, showing Democrats down, outside the margin of error.Below are their findings and methodology.

Total % Candidate Support/Lean

Candidate %

1 Chad Causey 42.00%Causey Lean 2.50%2 Rick Crawford 39.83%Crawford Lean 2.33%3 Richard Walden 4.50%Walden Lean 0.50%4 Mickey Higgins 1.67%Higgins Lean 0.17%5 Undecided 6.50%

Grand Total 100%

Methodology: We used IVR survey technology to complete 600 surveys statewideon the evening of 7/23/2010. All respondents self identified as very likely orsomewhat likely to vote in the November election. We asked seven questions inthis survey. This IVR survey of 600 sample size has a margin of error of +/-4.5%.These results include demographic breakdowns but sample sizes are too small todraw detailed conclusions on race/age/gender.


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Right now, voters are largely making selections in polls based on party labeling. With

the anger towards Washington, government, and federal spending, voters in Arkansas

that have traditionally voted for Democrats are choosing Republicans based on party

label. However, in the First Congressional District, when voters are informed about thecandidates, they chose Chad Causey by a winning margin.

Bottom line: Arkansans in the First District may be willing to vote for a Republican,

but Rick Crawford is not the right one.Even though this is a very competitive race,

Rick Crawford is a deeply flawed candidate.

While this is a toxic environment for electoral politics, Chad Causey will be a bright spotin an otherwise dismal year. Arkansans do not want someone who is dishonest to lookafter their tax dollars. They will not elect someone to Congress who cannot keep theirpersonal and campaign finances in order. They want someone who is ready to get to workrepresenting Arkansas on day one. That person is Chad Causey.

--Candace J. MartinChad Causey for CongressDeputy Campaign Director

www.chadcauseyforcongress.com
http://www.chadcauseyforcongress.com/http://www.chadcauseyforcongress.com/http://www.chadcauseyforcongress.com/

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AR-01 Garin-Hart-Yang for Chad Causey (August 2010)