Asian Tigers Investor Report Magazine

構建東盟統一交易所

Unified ASEAN Exchange

Forging a

Hong Kong’s Property Market Surges

香港樓市再現火爆

Tourism in the Bali Balance峇里島旅遊業

走和諧發展之路

Renovation Under Way革新進行時

AT July.indb 1 7/2/2010 3:03:18 PM

Most people hang ART on their wall

We put them on your wrist

Brand Boutiques at Greenbelt 5 MallAlso available at Lucerne Glorietta 4 and Shangri-La Plaza Mall

AT July.indb 2 7/2/2010 3:03:23 PM

Most people hang ART on their wall

We put them on your wrist

Brand Boutiques at Greenbelt 5 MallAlso available at Lucerne Glorietta 4 and Shangri-La Plaza Mall

PB

JULY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTORS REPORT

Asian Tigers magazine is true to the Tiger tradition of being bold and ambitious. We bring you regular monthly articles that are expertly written, sometimes bold in their nature, and innovative in their approach to our readers throughout Asia.

Always staying true to our name – we hunt for the most interesting business stories around Asia and take you on another well-informed tour, with our team of expert writers as your travel guides. In this issue, we bring you hot news and insights from China, Vietnam, Thailand -- and of course all the other countries in our region that are truly powering Asia as a global engine of growth.

Every seasoned investor knows the best way to obtain up to date and pertinent information is to read about it. Whether it be online, or in print. We now offer you both. You can also read Asian Tigers online at www.asiantir.com

And, of course, you can check out our website at asiantir.com -- for all the very latest financial news.

Happy hunting…and browsing!

Charlie Greene

亞洲虎雜誌秉承勇敢進取的猛虎精神，每月為亞洲讀者呈獻精彩文章，有的言辭犀利,一針見血，有的

精闢獨到，發人深省。

網羅亞洲商業故事，精彩紛呈，引人入勝，誠邀您與我們的專家作者一道，品味這段資訊之旅。身在全

球增長發動機的亞洲，本期雜誌為您呈遞中國，越南，泰國等區內國家的時事熱點與洞察。

精明的投資者總是知道如何巧妙獲取最新的財經資訊，有人喜歡線上瀏覽，有人中意平面傳媒。《亞

洲虎》讓您魚與熊掌兼得，您可登入www.asiantir.com，線上瀏覽《亞洲虎》。

同時，歡迎您訪問我們的網站www.asiantir.com，瀏覽最新財經消息。

祝您閱讀和線上瀏覽愉快！

Charlie Greene

Asian TigersEditor in Chief Charles Greene

Chinese EditorCindy Ng 吴雪玲

Managing EditorStephen Jeffery

ContributorsCarl Nicholas NgMike WilsonKelly YangBert OlbesBruce CurranRanajay DasguptaDavid BowdenSteve LuntIan FraserAlan AguasChris Champion

Circulation ManagerBonnie Tsang

Production ManagerFerdinand Ng

Design & LayoutRommel Domondon

Design AssistantsChris Wood, Ma. Christina Roxas

AdvertisingVictor JefferyTeresa Ngai 魏雅云[email protected]

Editorial & CommentsEric Wong [email protected]

Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. Suite 8156, 3905 Two Exchange Square 8 Connaught Place Central Hong Kong

No part of this magazine may be reproduced without the written permission of the publishers. Opinions in Asian Tigers magazine are the writers and not necessarily endorsed by the publishers. No responsibility will be accepted for unsolicited manuscripts or other materials. Editorial content contained herein is provided for information only.

All rights reserved. Copyright©2009 applied for by Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co.

Asian Tigers magazine is published monthly by Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. and is produced for them by Global Integrated Media Ltd.

From the Editor’s Desk

編輯寄語

The Asian Tiger Investor Report Website (www.asiantir.com), provides a wealth of services to both the Asian investor as well as investors globally who are interested in the Asian market. In addition to the latest financial news, stock quotes, financial calendars and forex rates, you can also find these additional features:

Featured Company News - The place to look for news on companies that are making news.

Expert Columns - Asian Tiger Investor Report features exclusive commentary from globally recognized columnists who are experts in their fields.

Ask The Legal Experts - The complexities surrounding financial transactions can present a daunting minefield for investors. Gain expert help for your queries on securities and other transactions here.

Broker/Dealer Search - Check the status of a broker, dealer or investment house or adviser to determine if they are registered in the jurisdiction they offer their services in.

Detective Stock - Determine the worthiness of an equity and/or answer important questions about any specific stock.

AT July.indb 3 7/2/2010 3:03:30 PM

PB

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2010

Contents

Forging a Unified ASEAN Exchange構建東盟統一交易所作者/by Carl Nicholas Ng

Hong Kong’s Property Market Surges 香港樓市再現火爆作者/by Michael Wilson

New Policy Accelerates the Fast Developing Chinese Renewable Energy Market新政策助推中國可再生能源市場發展作者/by Kelly Yang

The OFW Phenomenon (Part II of III: The Philippines’ Triad of Dollar Earning-Industries)「外勞」現象（第2/3部：菲律賓創匯三駕馬車）作者/by Bert Olbes

Blooming in the Face of World Gloom - Asian Investment Funds Lead the Way不畏浮雲遮望眼-亞洲投資基金碩果累累作者/by Bruce Curran

Integrated Facilities in Vietnam越南綜合設施管理作者/by Ranajay Dasgupta

Najib Takes Control of Malaysia馬來西亞：納吉漸入佳境作者/by David Bowden

Vietnam & Laos A Tale of Two Economies越南和老撾各有特點, 但息息相關作者/by Michael Wilson

Tourism in the Bali Balance峇里島旅遊業走和諧發展之路作者/by Steve Lunt

Singapore A Powerful Competitor for World’s Leading Financial Centre 新加坡國際金融中心的有力競爭者作者/by Ian Fraser

Renovation Under Way 革新進行時作者/by Alan Aguas

High Stakes in the Iron Ore Business 豪賭鐵礦石作者/by Chris Champion

Features6

10

14

18

24

28

37

40

44

47

34

50

On the Cover:

Hong Kong’s Property Market Surges

Chinese Renewable Energy Market

14

OFW Phenomenon18 Malaysia34

Vietnam Facilities Management

28

AT July.indb 4 7/2/2010 3:03:48 PM

AT July.indb 5 7/2/2010 3:03:54 PM

JULY 2010

4 Opinion

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT |

GameNumbersThe

by Chris Champion

數字的遊戲

When Professor elinor ostrom was named as a co-winner of the 2009 Nobel Prize for Economics, it was considered controversial. 艾莉諾•奧斯特姆教授與人分享2009年諾

貝爾經濟學獎，消息傳來，引得譁然一片。

The 76-year-old American academic was one of a record five women to win Nobel prizes this year and the first ever woman to win an economics prize, but that is not what was controversial. The arm-flapping comes from traditionalists who label the work of Ostrom as social science rather than strict economics. 今年破天荒有五位女性榮膺諾貝爾獎，

這位76歲的美國學者是其中之一，也是首

位獲頒經濟學獎的女性，但爭議的焦點並

不在此。惹人非議的是，傳統主義者們將

奧斯特姆的研究歸於社會學的範疇，而非

嚴格意義上的經濟學。

The Nobel citation pointed to her research into “economic governance, especially the commons”, and judges noted how she “challenged the conventional wisdom that common property is poorly managed and should be either regulated by central authorities or privatised”.諾貝爾獎給奧斯特姆的頒獎理由是她

「在經濟管理方面的分析，特別是對公共

資源管理上的分析」，評審說她「挑戰了

人們的傳統思維，也就是認為公共財產是

管理不好的，所以應該由中央政府統一管

理，或者私有化」。

What Ostrom’s work has attempted to show is that common resources like forests and fisheries are best exploited if the rules and regulations are set by their users rather than by government. However, according to Professor Steven Levitt, of the University of Chicago, “The economics profession is going to hate the prize going to Ostrom. Economists want this to be an economists’ prize. This (2009) award demonstrates...that the prize is moving toward a Nobel in social science, not a Nobel in Economics.”她的研究試圖表明，像林，漁這些公共

資源，不宜由政府而是應該讓其使用者

來制定規章制度，才能得到最有效的利

用。然而芝加哥大學教授史蒂文•萊維特

表示：「經濟學界對奧斯特姆得獎忿忿不

平。經濟學家們覺得這應該是一個屬於

經濟學家的獎項，而今年（2009年）的

評獎則表明…這個獎項正朝著諾貝爾社會

科學獎的方向轉變，不再是諾貝爾經濟

學獎了。」

Ostrom herself acknowledges the distinction. “I’ve crossed disciplines, there’s no question about it,” she said.奧斯特姆也承認這個差別，她說：「沒

錯，我確實跨了學科。」

We can not defer to the wisdom of Alfred Nobel on the issue, because he did not provide for an economics prize in his 1895 will. The prize was created, in his memory, in 1968 by the Swedish central bank.在這件事上，諾貝爾本人也說的不算，

因為1895年他立下的遺囑中根本沒有經濟

學獎。這個獎項是1968年瑞典中央銀行為

了紀念諾貝爾才設立的。|AT|

Elinor Ostrom won the Nobel Prize with Oliver Williamson for their work in economic governance

AT July.indb 6 7/2/2010 3:04:01 PM

Opinion 5

They will call Australia home澳洲是我家

The question being commonly asked these days about Australian real estate is “duoshao qian?” It means “how much?” in Mandarin and, according to a recent report in Melbourne’s Herald Sun newspaper, leading property agents say more than 30 per cent of their stock is bought by families from mainland China. 近段日子，澳洲房地產市場經常能

聽到這樣一句中文：「多少錢？」據墨爾本的《先驅太陽報》報道，來自主流物業代理商的消息說，他們手中的存量樓盤有三成多都被來自中國內地的家庭買走了。

Scott Patterson, a director at agent Jellis Craig, said 34 per cent of his firm’s sales so far this year have been to mainland Chinese, up from 15 per cent in 2008. “Demand is so strong we’ve got two native speaker agents starting next week.” 代理商Jellis Craig的董事斯科特•帕特

森說，今年中國內地客戶佔到公司銷售額

的三成四，比2008年的15%高出許多：「因需

求旺盛，我們特聘兩位能講中文的經紀從

下週開始工作。」

The boom was kickstarted by an Australian government decision last year to ease foreign investment rules on property. The Chinese are said to be most interested in properties in the A$1 million to $4 million range in upmarket suburbs and near private schools. 去年澳洲政府決定放寬外資投資房地產

的規定，樓市旋即升溫，據說價位介乎

100萬到400萬澳元的郊區豪宅和臨近私

立學校的物業，最受中國人青睞。

Former plastic surgeon and financial planner Jin Shang will be Jellis Craig’s first Mandarin-speaking agent. “China is the world’s strongest economy and Australia’s major trading partner,” he said. “Chinese want residential properties here because they feel comfortable in Australia’s multicultural environment and they know it has one of the world’s best education systems.” 曾經作過整形外科醫生和財務策劃

師的尚進（音譯），成為Jellis Craig第一個能講中文的經紀。「中國是世界經濟強國，也是澳洲的主要貿易夥

伴，」他說：「中國人想在澳洲置業，是喜歡澳洲的多元文化氛圍，還有世界上數一數二的教育體系。」

It’s just another challenge for home-grown Australian property agents. First they learned some polite greetings in Japanese when they drove a Queensland investment boom in the 1980s and 1990s, and then they learned the same greetings in Cantonese to welcome the Hong Kong interest in the run-up to the 1997 handover. Now they are busy adding Mandarin to their growing language skills. 現在，澳洲的物業代理商又遇到一個新

挑戰。回想1980到1990年代昆士蘭投資

熱的時候，他們得學會用日語寒暄。到了

1997年香港回歸，又要學廣東話來招待

蜂擁而至的香港客戶。如今輪到惡補中

文普通話了。|AT|

| ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORTJULY 2010

AT July.indb 7 7/2/2010 3:04:10 PM

on 23 february this year, the exchanges of five member-countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (more commonly known as ASEAN) signed a Memorandum of Understanding to form an electronic trading link between each other. The Bursa Malaysia, Indonesia Stock Exchange, Philippine Stock Exchange, Singapore Exchange and the Stock Exchange of Thailand were later joined by Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange, which joined the initiative upon signing an Accession Agreement on 15 September 2009.

2009 年 2 月 23 日，東南亞國家聯盟（常

稱「東盟」）五名成員國之交易所簽署了一

份諒解備忘錄，協議建立電子交易對接渠

道。這五間交易所包括馬來西亞交易所，

印尼證券交易所，菲律賓證券交易所，新

加坡交易所以及泰國證券交易所，同年 9

月 15 日越南胡志明證券交易所簽署同盟協

議，加入該計劃。

The MOU envisions an ASEAN electronic trading link allowing inves-tors in each of these countries to invest in equities listed on the other mem-ber exchanges. Under the proposal, an ASEAN bulletin board will be set up listing the 30 top stocks of each country (representing around two-thirds of the market capitalisation of regional stock markets), allowing these to be elec-tronically traded in all six of the member exchanges through a common trading platform. To reduce foreign counterparty

JULY 2010

6 Economy


Unified ASEANExchange

Forging a

Six Association of Southeast Asian Nations stock exchanges are paving the way for a

common regional equities market東南亞國家聯盟六大證券交易所聯手籌

建區域性共同股市

構建東盟統一交易所

作者/by Carl Nicholas Ng

AT July.indb 8 7/2/2010 3:04:17 PM

risks among the ASEAN brokerages, the ASEAN exchanges will establish their clearing houses as central counterpar-ties for clearing and settlement of cross-border trades.該諒解備忘錄擬實現東盟電子交易對接，

使成員國投資者能夠投資在其他成員國交

易所上市的股票。根據該構想，將開通東

盟交易議價板，納入各成員國的 30 強股票

（約佔區內證券市場總市值的三分之二），

這些股票可在上述六國交易所透過共同交

易平台進行電子交易。為降低東盟券商的

外國對手方風險，東盟各國交易所將成立

自己的結算中心，作為跨國交易的清算與

結算中央對手方。

According to Stock Exchange of Thailand president Patareeya Benjapholchai, whose bourse is handling the secretariat for the initiative, the target for implementation of the bulletin board and trading link is the fourth quarter of 2010. However since the signing of the original agreement in February, there have been few new details emerging from the working

group formed by the ASEAN exchanges. A formidable range of technical and financial issues need to be addressed by the working group before the proposal can become operational. These include the creation of a common

technological platform for the six exchanges to link their trading systems with each other, the settlement of cross-border trades between countries using six different currencies, and different regulatory regimes on foreign ownership of companies.據泰國證券交易所主席 Patareeya

Benjapholchai 透露，交易議價板和交易

對接計劃定在 2010 年第四季開始執行。這

個計劃的秘書處就設在泰交所。然而自 2

月份初步協議簽署以來，由東盟各國交易

所組成的工作組鮮有公佈詳細計劃。在該

計劃投入運作之前，仍有諸多技術及金融

難題有待工作組予以解決，包括實現六大

交易所交易系統對接的共同技術平台的建

立，六種不同貨幣的跨國交易結算，以及

對企業外國股權的不同監管體制。

Despite these challenges, the logic behind the initiative is apparent. The ten ASEAN countries (Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar are the other members) have a total population of approximately 580 million and a combined gross domestic product of

US$1.5 trillion in 2008. Since the 1990s ASEAN has taken steps to erect a common market among their member-states, with several agreements signed for free trade in goods and services, free flow of investment and a single aviation market gradually being implemented with the goal of creating an ASEAN Economic Community by 2015. These policies aim to bind the fragmented economies of Southeast Asia into one large bloc better capable of commanding attention and interest on the world stage.拋開重重障礙不談，該計劃背後的動機顯

而易見。東盟十國（其餘四國為：文萊，柬

埔寨，老撾，緬甸）共有 5.8億人口，2008

年綜合國內生產總值達 1.5萬億美元。自上

世紀 90年代起東盟就已著手準備成員國共

同市場的籌建事宜，亦為實現商品服務的自

由貿易，投資的自由流動及統一的航空市場

簽署了若干協議，目前這些協議正在有條不

紊地執行當中，目標是在 2015 年之前建成

東盟經濟共同體。上述政策旨在將東南亞各

個獨立經濟體結成一個大聯盟，提升其在國

際舞台上的影響力，維護自身利益。

The linkage of ASEAN exchanges is an outgrowth of ASEAN’s wider economic consolidation, recognizing the need to combine the economic and financial strengths of the six members in order to form a more attractive regional capital market. The ASEAN Capital Markets Forum (ACMF), which groups together the securities regulators of the region, issued a roadmap to create an integrated regional financial market by harmonising national regulatory and governance standards and building an infrastructure to support intra-ASEAN investment and fund-raising. The 13th ASEAN Finance Ministers Meeting held in Pattaya, Thailand on 9 April this year endorsed the ACMF Implementation Plan, which featured as one of its strategic components the establishment of an ASEAN Bulletin Board and trading link.東盟交易所的聯合是東盟日益廣泛的經

濟整合的產物，順應了聯合六國經濟及金

JULY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Economy 7

MOU envisions an ASEAN electronic trading link allowing investors in each of these countries to invest in equities listed on the other member exchanges

AT July.indb 9 7/2/2010 3:04:25 PM

JULY 2010ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT |

Economy8

融實力，建立更具吸引力的區域性資本市

場的需求。東盟資本市場論壇 (ACMF) 將

區內證券監管機構集結起來，規劃出以協

調國家監管與治理標準及建設支持東盟內

部投資融資的基礎設施，構建統一區域性

金融市場的藍圖。今年 4月 9日第 13 次東

盟財長會議在泰國芭堤雅召開，會上通過

了ACMF 實施計劃，被視為實現東盟交易議

價板與交易對接的里程碑。

Thailand’s Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanji, present at the signing of the MOU among the exchanges in Bangkok earlier this year, summarised the initiative’s purpose succinctly: “This project will strengthen our regional financial stability by deepening regional capital markets and facilitating progressive liberalisation of our financial sector. A stronger, integrated and more

competitive ASEAN is necessary to respond to the changing global landscape. Offering a single platform is a starting point to achieve our 2015 vision of a more integrated ASEAN capital market with harmonised rules, regulations and practices.”泰國財長 Korn Chatikavanji 曾出席了

年初在曼谷舉行的各國交易所諒解備忘錄

簽署儀式，他一語道出了該計劃的宗旨：「該

計劃將拓展區內資本市場深度，促進各國

金融業的逐步開放，增強區內的金融穩定。

環球市場風雲變幻，一個更強大，更具競

爭力，更加團結的東盟乃時勢所需。我們

的目標是在 2015 年建成規則，法規及實務

協調，整合力度更大的東盟資本市場，開

闢單一交易平台只是第一步。」

The integration of the ASEAN bourses is seen as a strategic move for

domestic ASEAN financial markets to remain globally relevant. The premise of the initiative is that a pan-ASEAN equities market will increase the pool of capital available for investment by aggregating the individual domestic equity markets. This will scale up the liquidity, diversity and depth of the ASEAN exchanges and theoretically attract more foreign capital, drawn in by the enhanced safety and choice available among ASEAN equities as an asset class. The end-goal is the creation of a more stable and appealing regional capital market that can help power Southeast Asia’s economic development by attracting foreign investment and creating more wealth through better investment opportunities for ASEAN citizens.

TABLE 1. Signatories of the ASEAN Exchange Linkage MOU表1. 東盟交易所對接備忘錄簽署交易所

Main Index主要指數

Total Market Capitalization (US$ Millions)b

總市值（百萬美元）b

Total Value of Share Trading YTD (US$ Millions)b

年初至今總成交額（百萬美元）b

Total Number of Trades in Shares YTD (Thousands)b

年初至今總成交量（千股）b

YTD Performance (Major Index)a

年初至今表現（主要指數）a

Bursa Malaysia馬來西亞交易所

KLCI大馬綜合指數

173,040.4 63,941.6 13,495.4 42.21%

Hochiminh Stock Exchange胡志明證券交易所

VNIndex越南指數

28,624.1 N/A N/A 91.89%

Indonesia Stock Exchange印尼證券交易所

JCIJCI

206,091.7 71,206.3 15,828.7 85.31%

Philippine Stock Exchange菲律賓證券交易所

PSEiPSEi

55,748.2 13,122.8 1,474.2 56.48%

Singapore Exchange新加坡交易所

Straits Times Index海峽時報指數

292,461.8 158,585.3 n N/A 53.75%

The Stock Exchange of Thailand泰國證券交易所

SET Index泰證指數

153,358.4 90,037.4 25,494.5 62.56%

Total ASEAN Exchanges東盟交易所合計

909,324.6 396,893.4 56,292.9 67.69%

TABLE 2. Comparison of ASEAN Exchange Linkage vs. Regional Financial Centers表2.東盟交易所聯盟與區內金融中心之比較


Total Market Capitalization (US$ Millions)a

總市值（百萬美元）a


年初至今總成交額（百萬美元） b





Australian Stock Exchange澳洲證券交易所

S&P/ASX 200標普澳證200

1,152,223.9 678,490.9 83,163.2 29.79%

Hong Kong Exchanges香港交易所

Hang Seng Index恒生指數

1,401,700.6 1,098,417.8 110,801.4 52.12%

Shanghai Stock Exchange上海證券交易所

Shanghai Composite上證綜指

2,392,300.6 3,315,768.5 1,456,327.0 63.14%

Tokyo Stock Exchange東京證券交易所

TOPIX東證指數

3,351,892.7 2,994,843.1 N/A 4.09%


909,324.6 396,893.4 56,292.9 67.69%

a Data as of October 14, 2009 from Bloomberg 彭博資訊截至2009年10月14日數據。b Data as of September 30, 2009 from the World Federation of Exchanges 世界交易所聯合會截至2009年9月30日數據。

a Data as of October 14, 2009 from Bloomberg 彭博資訊截至2009年10月14日數據b Data as of September 30, 2009 from the World Federation of Exchanges 世界交易所聯合會截至2009年9月30日數據

AT July.indb 10 7/2/2010 3:04:26 PM


Economy 9

東盟交易所的整合被視為東盟金融市場

與國際接軌的策略性舉措。該計劃的預期

是透過泛東盟股市匯集成員國的股市資金，

擴大可用於投資的資本池。這無疑將提升

東盟交易所的流通量，多樣性及深度，理

論上會吸引更多外資，因為這將提升東盟

股票作為一種資產類別的安全性及選擇範

圍。終極目標是建立一個更為穩定，更具

吸引力的區域性資本市場，吸引更多外資，

提供更好的投資機會，幫助東盟人民創造

更多財富，推動東南亞經濟發展。

Enhancing the competitiveness and appeal of ASEAN markets as investment destinations is even more urgent because of the presence of other competing financial centres in East Asia, which can attract capital away from ASEAN’s markets. Although the ASEAN exchanges have been some of the top global performers in the year-to-date (see Table 1), a brief comparison with the exchanges of other East Asian financial centres such as Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Sydney shows that the individual ASEAN exchanges lag behind their regional competitors badly in terms of liquidity and activity (see Table 2).然而東亞還有其他金融中心的存在，在

吸引資金方面與東盟市場形成競爭，因此

增強東盟市場作為投資目的地的競爭力及

吸引力的工作顯得更為緊迫。從年初至今

東盟各交易所在全球市場表現榜單上當屬

佼佼者（參見表 1），但與東京，香港，上海，

悉尼等其他東亞金融中心的交易所相比，

不論是流通量抑或活躍程度，東盟交易所

的各自表現還是遠遠落後於區內競爭對手

（參見表 2）。

While each of the six ASEAN exchanges are dwarfed by the major regional exchanges on measures like market capitalization, total value of trades and number of trades, looking at them as a single ASEAN market presents a more appealing picture. A combined ASEAN exchange with a market capitalisation of nearly US$910 billion is within touching distance of the next biggest capitalised market in the region, the Australian Stock Exchange. And while it lags behind on measures of trading liquidity and activity, a unified ASEAN exchange could well see a blaze of new activity upon its inauguration as ASEAN investors take advantage of fresh cross-border investment opportunities.如單獨比較，就市值，成交額，成交量

等指標而言，東盟六大交易所在區內主要

交易所面前可謂是相形見絀，但如整體而

論，實力還是頗為矚目。東盟交易所綜合

市值近 9,100 億美元，距區內第二大市

場—澳洲證券交易所僅一步之遙。雖目前

在交易流通量及活躍程度方面較為落後，

但可以預料的是，隨著東盟投資者抓住新

的跨境投資機遇，東盟統一交易所一旦啟

動，前途不可估量。

Of course, all this remains theoretical until the working group produces more details on the actual operation of a regional trading link. Thus far there have been no public

announcements of a timeline with major milestones, besides the target launching during the 4th quarter of 2010. There is also a concern among some of the ASEAN exchanges, unvoiced in public, that the linkage may harm more than help the smaller exchanges by diverting the capital of their domestic investors away from locally-listed companies towards the larger and stronger companies of more developed exchanges in the grouping. The possibility remains that these fears coupled with other technical, financial or regulatory issues could yet delay or derail the implementation of ASEAN’s ambitions for a unified regional capital market, despite the contemplated benefits the initiative will bring to the Southeast Asian economies.當然，除非工作組拿出更多有關區內交

易對接實際運作的詳細方案，否則這一切

只能是紙上談兵。除該計劃將在 2010 年

第四季開始執行之外，目前尚無任何主要

進展時間表出爐。然而東盟某些交易所心

知肚明，對接對小型交易所而言可能是弊

大於利，因為這會導致國內投資者放棄本

國上市公司，而將資金投向聯盟中發展程

度更高的交易所中規模更大，實力更強的

公司。雖然該計劃有望為東南亞經濟體帶

來一定好處，但上述擔憂連同其他技術，

資金或監管問題都可能使東盟建立統一區

域性資本市場的勃勃雄心遭到拖延，甚至宣告流產。|AT|

TABLE 1. Signatories of the ASEAN Exchange Linkage MOU表1. 東盟交易所對接備忘錄簽署交易所


Total Market Capitalization (US$ Millions)b

總市值（百萬美元）b


年初至今總成交額（百萬美元）b





Bursa Malaysia馬來西亞交易所

KLCI大馬綜合指數

173,040.4 63,941.6 13,495.4 42.21%

Hochiminh Stock Exchange胡志明證券交易所

VNIndex越南指數

28,624.1 N/A N/A 91.89%

Indonesia Stock Exchange印尼證券交易所

JCIJCI

206,091.7 71,206.3 15,828.7 85.31%

Philippine Stock Exchange菲律賓證券交易所

PSEiPSEi

55,748.2 13,122.8 1,474.2 56.48%

Singapore Exchange新加坡交易所

Straits Times Index海峽時報指數

292,461.8 158,585.3 n N/A 53.75%

The Stock Exchange of Thailand泰國證券交易所

SET Index泰證指數

153,358.4 90,037.4 25,494.5 62.56%


909,324.6 396,893.4 56,292.9 67.69%

TABLE 2. Comparison of ASEAN Exchange Linkage vs. Regional Financial Centers表2.東盟交易所聯盟與區內金融中心之比較


Total Market Capitalization (US$ Millions)a

總市值（百萬美元）a


年初至今總成交額（百萬美元） b





Australian Stock Exchange澳洲證券交易所

S&P/ASX 200標普澳證200

1,152,223.9 678,490.9 83,163.2 29.79%

Hong Kong Exchanges香港交易所

Hang Seng Index恒生指數

1,401,700.6 1,098,417.8 110,801.4 52.12%

Shanghai Stock Exchange上海證券交易所

Shanghai Composite上證綜指

2,392,300.6 3,315,768.5 1,456,327.0 63.14%

Tokyo Stock Exchange東京證券交易所

TOPIX東證指數

3,351,892.7 2,994,843.1 N/A 4.09%


909,324.6 396,893.4 56,292.9 67.69%

ASEAN integration is a stratigic move to make the region globally relevant for big company investors such as Microsoft

AT July.indb 11 7/2/2010 3:04:27 PM

Property Market Surges

Hong Kong’s

yes, We knoW, China’s burgeoning property market is in the news again. The headline news of the moment is, of course, that Glorious Property, a Shanghai-based real estate developer, has revived its stalled plans to raise around HK$10 billion (US$ bn) on the Hong Kong market, starting in October. And we know that there’ll be plenty more stories of exactly this kind making the papers in the near future. But right now, all this pales beside the startling property news coming in f rom Hong Kong itself. 中國紅紅火火的樓市再次成為焦點。此刻

坊間炒得最熱的話題要屬恒盛地產，這間

總部位於上海的房地產開發商已重啟先前

擱淺的融資計劃，準備從10月份開始在香

港市場融資100億港元（美元）。相信近期

將有不少諸如此類的新聞出現在各大報刊

雜誌上。然而相比香港樓

市本身，這些新聞都只能

算是小巫見大巫。

The territory’s property scene is currently booming on the back of an unexpectedly strong economic revival.

Commercial property transactions in August 2009 were more than double the levels of a year earlier, and vacancy rates are down to just 6.7%, one of the lowest rates in Asia. The 118-storey International Commerce Center, which is still under construction, is already fully let. Meanwhile property prices in the territory have been coming back by a startling 20-25% since January.在經濟強勁復甦的帶動下，香港樓市呈

現出一派如火如荼的景象。2009年8月商

用物業成交量上年同期增長愈倍，空置率

降至6.7%，居亞洲最低水平。118層的環

球貿易廣場尚未竣工就已被搶購一空。而

自1月份以來，樓價已大幅回升20-25%。

A Rollercoaster Ride雲霄飛車滋味雜陳

That’s the good news. But we need to agree that property ownership has been a terrifying rollercoaster experience for the city in the thirteen years since Britain returned the territory to China in January 1997. And we need to understand that many property owners are still sitting on losses even now. The 1997 handover sent Hong Kong’s property market into free fall, not just because of political uncertainties but also because of the fact that some businesses simply decamped to cheaper locations on the mainland. Not even an influx of Chinese financial business was able to make up for the over-supply of property that resulted. So

樓市再現火爆香港

JULY 2010

10 Economy


Glorious Property’s recent deal with China Construction Bank for support on its projects

作者/by Michael Wilson

AT July.indb 12 7/2/2010 3:04:34 PM

by 2004, at its bottom, the government’s property price index was showing a fall of 50-65% for every single sector of the property market - with the office sector especially badly hit.以上是好消息的一面。但需要承認的

是，自1997年1月英國將香港主權交還中國

之後，香港業主經歷了13年雲霄飛車般的

跌宕起伏。時至今日，仍有許多業主掙扎

在虧損線下。「九七」回歸觸發香港樓市

大崩盤，當中既包含政治不確定因素，又

有部份企業遷往成本相對低廉的內地的影

響。即使內地金融企業蜂擁而至也無法緩

解由此造成的樓市供過於求。到2004年樓

市見底之時，港府樓價指數顯示樓市各領

域均出現50-65%的降幅，其中寫字樓所受

衝擊尤為嚴重。

Things started to improve in the years after 2004, when a slow but impressive revival, prompted by strong trade performances from China, helped to push every sector apart from residential property back up above its pre-1997 level. But the market optimism was cut brutally short by the 2008 world financial crisis, which abruptly knocked 25% off property prices and forced the cancellation of various fund launches and IPOs from property companies of every kind. And so it remained until the spring of 2009…2004年以後市道開始好轉，因與內地加

強貿易往來，香港樓市以緩慢而堅定的步

伐邁向復甦，除住宅物業外，普遍回漲

至高於1997年以前的水平。可惜好景不

長，2008年全球金融危機瞬間便將美夢化

作噩夢。受金融危機影響，房價暴跌25%，

眾多地產公司紛紛取消了各種基金發行和

IPO計劃。直至2009年春季來臨…

An Unexpectedly Strong Rebound 強勁反彈出人意料

There can’t be many years that have started so badly and ended so well as 2009. As late as March, the property market’s consensus was still that Hong Kong had lapsed back to the depths of despair. Which wasn’t surprising, considering that the city’s economy had shrunk by 8% in the first quarter, the stock market had lost 48% during 2008, and there was not much money to be had from the banks. Optimists were thin on the ground.

像2009年這樣開局很無奈，結尾很精彩

的年份並不多見。直到3月份地產界還普遍

認為香港深陷危機泥潭，回天乏術。這種

想法應在情理之中，因為香港經濟在第一

季度已萎縮8%，2008年股市腰斬48%，而銀

行亦是泥菩薩過江自身難保。一時間悲觀

的烏雲遮天蔽日。

So what’s changed now? Partly, as we’ve said, it’s that Hong Kong’s economy is recovering much faster than many had expected. Second-quarter output was up by 3.3% on the previous quarter - not least because of the government’s HK$88 billion (US$11 billion) stimulus package, which is set to pump the equivalent to 5.2% of gross domestic product back into the market. Hong Kong’s exports rose by 11% during the quarter (and will doubtless improve yet again in the second half ), and consumer spending was up by 4%.既然如此，原因何在？如前所述，這部

份歸因於香港經濟復甦快於預期。第二季

度產出較上一季度增長3.3%—相當重要

的一個原因就是港府880億港元（110億

美元）的經濟刺激計劃，根據該計劃，將

有相當於本地生產總值5.2%的資金注入市

場。當季香港出口上升11%（下半年勢必還

會持續好轉），消費開支增長4%。

Partly, of course, the property surge is a direct result of the stock market’s 55% growth in 2009. Partly it’s due to an energetic central banking policy which has bolstered the Hong Kong dollar and has kept the foreigners’ money coming in. But partly it’s also that there’s been plenty of cheap money available. Some of that money has effectively come from mainland China, where banks spent the first half of 2009 lending vast amounts of money to Chinese borrowers - some of whom used it to buy prestige properties in Hong Kong. The lending taps have been turned off now, but the beneficial effects still look set to last.其次，樓市的此番上漲當然是直接受

益於2009年港股飆升55%。再者，穩定港

元，放寬外資流入限制的央行政策亦功不

可沒。再其次就是豐富的低息貸款資源，

而其中有部份資金實際上是來自中國內


Economy 11

Through Hong Kong’s HK$88 billion Stimulus Package, its exports rose by 11% during the quarter, and consumer spending was up by 4%

The 1997 handover by Britain of Hong Kong sent it’s property market into free fall

AT July.indb 13 7/2/2010 3:04:39 PM

地。2009年上半年，內地銀行在國內發

放巨額貸款，部份人用這筆錢在香港置業

購房。雖然銀行現已收緊銀根，但其所帶

來的利好影響卻仍在延續。

Land Registry statistics for August showed that residential property sales in Hong Kong increased by a staggering 113%, when measured against the levels of a year earlier, and that the value of the month’s transactions had nearly trebled to HK$41 billion. Industry analysts have been claiming that the sector’s capital values have gained 25% since last December (Sources: Centa-City Leading Index, Global Property Guide), of which 8.1% occurred in the second quarter of 2009. Government figures confirm that the government residential index is now at its highest level since 1998.土地註冊處8月統計數字顯示，香港住

宅物業銷售額較上年激增113%，月成交

量近增三倍，達410億港元。行業分析師

稱，自上年12月以來，該領域的資本值

已增長25%（資料來源：中原城市領先

指數，環球房地產指南），其中8.1%產

生於2009年第二季度。政府數據表明，

政府住宅指數現已達致1998年以來的最

高水平。

The Kai Tak Development啟德機場轉型重生

What’s next for the Hong Kong property scene? Most important, perhaps, is the proposed redevelopment of the 328-hectare Kai Tak airport complex, which has been ten years in the making and which is currently scheduled to include housing, hotel developments, government offices, a sports complex, two cruise liner terminals and a monorail link. The plans have been revamped many times, not least because of environmental concerns, but work finally started in July on the infrastructure - the roads, the bridges and so forth. Some HK$80 billion has been budgeted for the first two stages, between now and 2016, and a further HK$22 billion for stage three, to be completed by 2021.

接下來香港樓市是何景象？首要看點當

屬佔地328公頃的啟德機場客運大樓重新

發展計劃。該計劃已醞釀十年之久，目前

規劃打算涵蓋住宅，酒店，政府辦公場

所，以及一座體育場，兩個郵輪碼頭，還

有一條單軌鐵路。該計劃因環境等多方因

素幾易其稿，但最終於7月份動工興建路

橋等基礎設施。前兩期工程將於2016年完

工，預計耗資800億港元，第三階段還需

220億港元，將於2021年完工。

That’s going to create a lot of new business for a property and construction sector that’s been feeling the pinch recently. And it also answers at least some of the worries from those who fear that Beijing might eventually try to move some of Hong Kong’s financial functions to an enlarged Global Financial Centre in the capital itself. As a port, as a tourism centre, and as a good place to live, Hong Kong’s future is assured, whatever happens.該計劃對近期不太景氣的地產和建築行業

而言無疑是雪中送炭，亦可打消某些人心中

的些許顧慮，以免他們擔心北京有朝一日把

香港的部份金融功能，轉移到一個圍繞首都

打造的更大的全球金融中心。不論如何，作

為港口之城，觀光之城，宜居之城，香港的

未來必定光明無限！|AT|

PHO

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© SA

MU

EL LO


Economy12

Kai Tai airport since its closure in 1997 has been in constant construction ever since

As a port, as a tourism centre, and as a good place to live, Hong Kong’s future is assured, whatever happens

AT July.indb 14 7/2/2010 3:04:45 PM

AT July.indb 15 7/2/2010 3:04:52 PM

中國可再生能源市場發展新政策助推

作者/by Kelly Yang

Chinese Renewable Energy Market

New Policy Accelerates the Fast Developing

JULY 2010

14 Energy


as traditional sourCes of energy become unsustainable and the energy industry struggles to recover from the present economic downturn, development of renewable energy has become an inevitable choice worldwide.

由於傳統能源缺乏可持續性，而能源行

業又亟待從當前的經濟下滑中復甦，因

此發展可再生能源就成了全球各國的必

然選擇。

Presently, the economic crisis still exists all over the world. The original model of economic growth has already been proved ineffective. Hence, the focus is more on the progress of science and technology,

in order to revive the economy. The research and development of the renewable sources of energy through technological revolution for is necessary for a countries` economic restoration as well as for it to occupy a favorable position in the new international labor system division of the future.目前，經濟危機的陰霾仍籠罩全球，

原有的經濟增長模式已不再適用，要想

重振經濟，就必須更加注重科技的發展。

通過技術革命研發可再生能源，既可有

力推動國家經濟的復甦，亦有助國家在

未來新的國際分工格局中

佔據主動。

Moreover, in the recently-concluded summit of G8, all the countries agreed to reduce the industrial emission by 80.0 per-cent before 2050, and

the increase of the average temperature to be no more than 2 degree Celsius. Therefore, the consensus in the envi-ronment protection field has provided a policy support for the development of the renewable energy sector. 不久前閉幕的 G8 峰會上，各國同意在

2050 年之前將工業廢氣排放量減少 80%，

G8 in L’Aquila, Italy

AT July.indb 16 7/2/2010 3:04:59 PM

中國可再生能源市場發展


Energy 15

以及將平均氣溫升幅控制在兩攝氏度以

內。各國在環境保護領域達成的共識，為

可再生能源行業的發展提供了政策保障。

Overall, majority of the renewable energy markets are still in infancy period. Policy support is particularly a significant driving force for them. In July 21, 2009, the Chinese Gov-ernment announced the official start of the ‘GoldenSun Demonstration

Project’, which means that the Gov-ernment arranges funds to support the application of various types of photo-voltaic power generation technology. Previously, the Chinese Government has decided to invest around $65.2 million in the renewable energy sector before 2020, in order to improve the proportion of the renewable energy in the total national energy consump-

tion up to 15.0 percent, from the 8.0 percent share at present.整體而言，可再生能源市場普遍處於萌

芽階段，所以政策扶持是其發展的重要推

動力。2009 年 7 月 21 日，中國政府宣佈

正式啟動「金太陽示範工程」，政府將撥款

推動各類光伏發電技術的應用。此前，中

國政府已決定在 2020 年前向可再生能源

行業投資約 6,520 萬美元，將可再生能源

在全國能源總消耗量中的比重由當前的 8%

提高到 15%。

During the past few years, the Chi-nese photovoltaic industry has experi-enced a high growth. In 2007, China has become the largest supplier of photovoltaic components in the world. However, the domestic photovoltaic market is still small and approximately 98.0 percent photovoltaic products are used for export. The installed capacity of the solar power plants is expected to reach to 20.0 GW in 2020 driven by the newly announced ‘Renewable Energy Industry Revitalization Plan’. The in-stalled capacity has been improved 12.5 times compared with the previous plan.過去數年，中國的光伏產業高速增長，

2007 年一躍成為全球最大的光伏組件供

應國。遺憾的是，國內光伏市場的規模依

然偏小，大約 98% 的光伏產品都銷往國

外。根據最近出台的「可再生能源振興計

Manufacturing solar cells at Suntech, China’s biggest solar panel maker

China’s goal is to increase domestic consumption on renewable energy from 8% to 15% by 2020

PHOTOGRAPH © XINHUA

PHO

TOG

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© BU

ELAH

MA

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AT July.indb 17 7/2/2010 3:05:01 PM


Energy16

Frost & Sullivan, the Growth Partnership Company, enables clients to accelerate growth and achieve best in class positions in growth, innovation and leadership. The company’s Growth Partnership Service provides the CEO and the CEO’s Growth Team with disciplined research and best practice models to drive the generation, evaluation and implementation of powerful growth strategies. Frost & Sullivan leverages over 45 years of experience in partnering with Global 1000 companies, emerging businesses and the investment community from 31 offices on six continents. To join our Growth Partnership, please visit http://www.frost.com.Frost & Sullivan（成長夥伴公司）幫助客戶加速發展，讓客戶的成長力，創造力和領導力達致最佳。該公司的「成長夥伴服務」旨在為高管及其領導的成長團隊提供專業的研究和最佳實務模式，幫助他們制定，評價和推行卓有成效的成長策略。Frost & Sullivan在六大洲設有31間辦事處，發揮45年的豐富經驗服務於全球1,000家公司，新興企業和投資業界。欲知「成長夥伴」詳情，敬請瀏覽http://www.frost.com。

劃」，到 2020 年，太陽能發電廠的裝機容

量要達到 20 GW，跟之前的計劃相比增加

了 12.5 倍。

The implementation period of the ‘GoldenSun Demonstration Project’ is from 2009 to 2011. The financial subsi-dies cover infrastructure construc tion, key technology industri alization, proj-ects for resolving the power shortage issue in remote area, and other aspects. According to the plan, the installed capacity of individual project is likely to be more than 300 KWp and the con-struction period is likely to be less than one year. Moreover, the total operation period is expected to be not less than 20 years. In terms of different construction conditions and application areas, the subsidies provided for the projects are planned to reach to 50.0 or 70.0 percent of total investments. 「金太陽示範工程」自 2009 年開始實施

直至 2011 年，國家將在基礎建設，關鍵技

術產業化，解決偏遠地區電力短缺工程及

其他領域安排財政補貼。根據計劃，每個

項目的裝機容量可能超過 300 KWp，建設

期可能不到一年，而且營運期不少於 20 年。

視乎不同的建設條件和應用領域，補貼資

金大約會佔項目投資總額的 50% 或 70%。

The ‘GoldenSun Demonstration

Project’ has played an important role in facilitating the fast development of the immature photovoltaic industry in China. However, favorable policy can provide only a little support for the photovoltaic industry. In the long run, cost reduction is a more necessary factor for the development of the photovoltaic industry.「金太陽示範工程」為促進中國尚不成

熟的光伏產業快速發展發揮了重要作用，

然而單靠優惠政策還遠遠不夠，長遠來

看，降低成本才是光伏產業發展壯大的硬

道理。|AT|

This article was authored by Kelly Yang based out of the Beijing offices of Frost & Sul-livan 本文由 Frost & Sullivan 北京辦事處

Kelly Yang 撰寫

AT July.indb 18 7/2/2010 3:05:06 PM

AT July.indb 19 7/2/2010 3:05:11 PM

The

OFWPhenomenon

Part II of III: The Philippines’ Triad of Dollar Earning-Industries

in the last issue it Was emPhasized that the impact of Philippines’ triad of Dollar Earning-Industries of the Philippines cannot, and should not, be understated. Apart from thwarting what otherwise could have been negative growth during the peak of global financial crisis in the past year, the influx of the “almighty” US$ has kept the exchange rate of the peso to the dollar steady at between 48 and 49 pesos to the dollar, a huge factor in the country being able to service its foreign debt. 上一系列著重講述了菲律賓創匯「三駕馬

車」對菲國的影響—不容低估，亦不應低

估。除了在去年全球金融危機谷底之時有

效阻止可能出現的負增長外，「無所不能」

的美元的流入將比索兌美元匯率穩穩維持

在48到49比索之間，成為菲國得以償還外

債的重要因素之一。

In the meantime in August 2009 the current administration announced that the country will be operating on a budget deficit of about 250 billion pesos (US$ 5.1 billion) against an annual budget of P1.5 trillion (US$ 30.6 billion) in 2010. Even as such deficit spending might be considered necessary because it constitutes pump-priming initiatives that are imperative to spawn crucial growth and job-stimulating projects at this point in time, the need to keep increasing the influx of US$ remains an economic priority. Simply consider that approximately 30% of next year’s annual budget will be utilized exclusively for servicing foreign debt – the less US$ the

government has to buy externally (as opposed to gaining on the FOREX from the naturally incoming variety), the better.

同時，2009年8月，現屆政府宣佈菲國財

政赤字約為2,500億比索（51億美元），而

2010年年度預算為1.5萬億比索（306億

美元）。這些赤字性支出是政府救市方案的

根本，時下對促進決定性的增長及就業促

進項目而言不可或缺，實屬必要，但保持

美元流入量的不斷增長依然是經濟工作的

重點。只要想到明年的預算中有近30%將完

全用於償還外債，那麼政府向外購買的美

元（不同於自然流入情形的外匯收入）越

少越好。

In this edition, the overseas foreign Workers (OFWs) factor is the topic of

作者/by Bert Olbes

JULY 2010

18 Economy


the less US$ the government has to buy externally (as opposed to gaining on the FOREX from the naturally incoming variety), the better...

AT July.indb 20 7/2/2010 3:05:15 PM

interest for such US$ generation within the country. It is a phenomenon born of a confluence of several factors, not the least of which is acutely sociological in nature because it relates to the Filipino’s innate disposition to provide massive assistance – on a continuous, even lifetime basis – not just to their immediate families, but to their extended ones as well. It is not unusual for a single OFW to be supporting 10 to 20 family members extending to grandparents, cousins, nephews and in-laws. In fact the more rural the area or province the OFW hails from, the greater the number of beneficiaries, sometimes reaching as many as 30 or more.本文將重點討論菲國的一大美匯來源—

海外勞工（下稱「外勞」）。外勞現象是多

種因素共同作用的結果，其本質與社會文

化不無關係，因為菲律賓人骨子裏就有接

濟家人的天性，而且是長期甚至是終身接

濟，受接濟的不僅有他們的直系親屬，還

包括旁系親屬。一位外勞供養10到20位家

人的情況絕非罕見，從祖父母，堂兄妹到

侄甥輩，岳父母，全數負擔。實際上外勞

出口地區或省市越靠近鄉村，惠及人口

越多，有時甚至達到30人或更多。

Consider that the Philippine’s population is presently at 89 million. Concurrently, the country boasts of

9 million Overseas Foreign Workers (OFWs) who, by the time 2009 comes to a conclusion, will have sent back to

their home country a total of over US$17 billion and change,

an increase of very close to 3% over last

year’s remittances of US$ 16.4 billion. In effect, this is easily the king of the aforementioned triad of dollar

earners. 菲律賓人口現為8,900

萬，而該國卻擁有900萬海

外勞工（外勞）人，到2009年底

他們將向自己的祖國匯回合共170余億美

元，較去年的164億美元增長近3%。因

此，外勞輕鬆拿下創匯三駕馬車中的領

頭旗手位置。

And these figures do not include remittances f rom those who have recently (and on a continuous basis) become citizens of the countries they have been working in, for they are no longer considered Filipino OFWs, even as they have by no means curtailed their supporting ways.這些數據還不包括近期成為其務工國家

公民之人員的匯款（這種務工移民潮流

方興未艾），即便他們的支援方式毫無差

別，但已不能被稱為菲國外勞。

A Major Factor of OFW Resources外勞資源的重要成因

Significantly fueling this is the stark reality that the OFW is now a genuinely global work force, with Filipinos working in every country of world. On the other hand, there is an ever-increasing number who are reaching retirement age after 20 or 30 years of working abroad and who, with dollars in tow, are returning to their roots to bask in their retirement years. 外勞現已成為名副其實的環球工作大軍，

菲律賓工人的腳步遍佈世上每一個國家，這

一不容爭辯的事實令上述勢頭愈演愈烈。但

另一方面，越來越多的菲律賓人已屆退休之

年，他們在海外工作二三十年後帶著辛苦一

生的積蓄葉落歸根，回國頤養天年。

No matter what citizenship of what other country they had assumed during their productive working years, they are coming back in droves. In advance of their repatriation, they are sending back hordes of “greenery” to buy parcels of land and build retirement homes. In consequence the local construction industry has, via the resulting laws of supply and demand, benefited to the extent that real estate projects – from low cost to high end – are being driven by at least 30% foreign income. A glowing case in point is Ayala Land, by far the biggest land and housing developer in the Philippines, which has now fully immersed itself in massive low-cost housing projects, whereas in the past it had been associated exclusively with developing luxurious living properties. 無論在辛勤工作的歲月中取得了哪國國

籍，最終他們都會倦鳥歸巢。回國之前，

他們寄回成堆的「綠票子」，買田置地，

修建安身之所。因此，在供求規律的作用

下，當地建築業大獲其利。面對至少有三

成外匯收入的市場，不論定位高低，房地

產各領域均得到全面發展。菲律賓最大的

房地產開發商Ayala Land就是典型例證，


Economy 19

In advance of their repatriation, they are sending back hordes of “greenery” to buy parcels of land and build retirement homes. In consequence the local construction industry has...benefited

AT July.indb 21 7/2/2010 3:05:17 PM

這個過去只參與豪華居住物業開發的企

業，現正全情投入低成本集合房產項目。

So Who are these OFWs?外勞的構成

So what exactly is the composition of OFWs? The range, scope and levels of qualifications are from as high as one can imagine, to as “low” as one can equally conceive of.那麼這些外勞的構成情況究竟如何？

其從業資格的範圍，廣度及水平有高有

低，差距懸殊。

The medical field is only one area, albeit a major one, that represents the highest echelon of OFWs – from MD Specialists to nurses handling transplant divisions of highly prestigious hospitals such as that of Mt. Sinai in New York. There are Filipino engineers at the U.S. National Aeronautical & Space Administration (NASA) facilities in both Houston and Cape Canaveral in Florida. As of this writing there were 5,000 newly-opened positions for nurses and teachers in the UK. And how about Executive Chefs in Tanzania, Africa, and the White House (Cristeta Comeford) who herself was once an OFW. 醫療領域就是其中一個主要領域，處於

外勞梯隊的最高層，當中不乏在紐約西柰

山醫院等聲名遠播的醫院移植科工作的

醫學專家及護士。美國國家航空航天局

（NASA）的休斯敦及佛羅里達卡納維拉爾

角基地亦可見菲律賓工程師的身影。本文

撰寫之際，英國又新增5,000個醫生及教

師職位空缺。不少菲國外勞在坦桑尼亞，

非洲擔任行政主廚，而白宮的行政主廚科

默福德就曾經是外勞。

The seaman and merchant marine industry of the Philippines is one of the most developed in the world, which is

not particularly difficult to grasp in light of the seafaring ways of Filipinos who subsist on an archipelago with a coastline totaling more than 35,000 kilometers in length. It may seem unfathomable that fully 24% of all foreign seamen employed worldwide are Filipinos. Based on statistics from the Philippine embassy in Athens, for instance, fully 70% of all Filipinos employed in Greece are sea-based, while the Central Bank of the Philippines reported that in the first 7 months of 2009, US$ remittances from Greece expe rienced a 52% increase over the same period in 2008. Another report indicated that 18 out of 19 Marine First Engineers of crew and supply boats negotiating the Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) routes to offshore oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico off the Bay of Campeche in the Yucatan Peninsula were Filipinos.菲律賓是世界上海員及商船業最發達的

國家之一，這並不難理解，因為菲律賓的

海岸線全長超過35,000公里，菲律賓人過

著靠海吃海的生活，航海經驗豐富。但全

球受僱的外籍海員中有24%來自菲律賓的事

實還是有點匪夷所思。例如，據菲律賓駐

雅典大使館數據顯示，希臘僱傭的所有菲

律賓勞工中有70%從事與海洋有關的工作，

而菲律賓央行報告稱，2009年

頭七個月來自希臘的美元匯款

比去年同期增長52%。另一份

報告顯示，在經墨西哥國家石

油公司（PEMEX）航線到墨西

哥灣邊緣尤卡坦半島坎佩切灣

的離岸鑽井平台的聯絡補給船

中，每19位艦隊一級工程師中

就有18個是菲律賓人。

In more general terms, the middle tiers of OFWs include Marketing Managers,

Product/Brand Advertising Executives, Planning Engineers and Chief Accountants (in North Africa, no less). In fact, there are boom truck operators in Madagascar, Production Managers and Master Electricians and Welders in West Africa, Electronic Engineers in Uganda. There are Sous Chefs in Ghana, as well as QC Inspectors, Piping Supervisors and foremen, workplace safety officers, warehousemen and toolkeepers and iron workers all over the world.人數更多，處於外勞中間層級的是市場

經理，產品／品牌廣告專員，規劃工程師


Economy20

It may seem unfathomable that fully 24% of all foreign seamen employed worldwide are Filipinos

White House Exec-Chief, Cristeta Comeford

AT July.indb 22 7/2/2010 3:05:20 PM

及總會計師（依然是就北非而言）。實際

上，還有馬達加斯加的隨車起重機操作

員，西非的製作經理，高級電工及焊工，

烏干達的電子工程師，加納的副總廚，

以及遍佈世界各地的質檢人員，管道主管

及領班，工作場所安全主管，倉庫管理

員，工具管理員及鋼鐵工人。

And let’s not forget licensed and legally employed international Filipino caregivers; they were the first ever to legally penetrate the Japanese workplace. Prior to then, such delicate tasks in the “Land of the Rising Sun” were reserved exclusively for Japanese citizens. Not that the Philippines and its people have

a complete monopoly on being sensitive to seniors, but there’s simply no denying that it is a major trait of Filipinos.別忘了菲律賓還有獲得國際公認可以在

世界各地合法打工的菲傭，他們是最先合

法進入日本勞動市場的群體，在此之前，

這樣的工作在日本都只留給本國國民。

對長輩的體貼關懷並非菲律賓民族的專

利，但不可否認這確實是菲律賓人的寶

貴品質。

Domestic but Ambitious只掃一屋，心系天下

This is not to mention the hundreds and hundreds of thousands, no, make that millions of Filipino domestic workers who proliferate planet earth. While this is not the most “glamorous” of professions, many who enthusiastically grab at such positions are in reality college graduates who use such opportunity as stepping stones to attain positions more in line with the universities studies they had completed. In fact, Hong Kong, less than two hours flying time from Manila and now accessible from international hubs Cebu and Clark, Pampanga (Manila is

following suit) for US$ 150 or less round trip, has developed the reputation of having become such a staging ground for those whose final, aspired destination is Canada. 成千上萬，不對，是數以百萬計，且在世

界各地不斷增加的菲傭更自不待言。這絕非

「光鮮」的職業，但實際上滿腔熱忱抓住此

類職位的許多都是大學畢業生，他們想以此

為跳板，獲得與其學業更加對口的職位。

實際上，從馬尼拉坐飛機不到兩小時便能

到達香港，現在從國際交通樞紐宿務，克拉

克，潘帕嘉（馬尼拉也將效法）花150美元

或更少便能跑個來回，使得香港已經名聲在

外，他們將此作為臨時落腳點，終極目標則

是加拿大。

With the advent of the global financial crisis, it had been predicted that the Filipino OFW would suffer correspondingly – but the opposite seems to have taken place. Yes, there were the intermittent scares of a few dozens here or a few hundred there being laid off, but it turns out – aside from being supported by the figures relating to incoming US dollar remittances themselves – that the opposite is true. 隨著全球金融危機的到來，曾有預計稱菲


Economy 21

AT July.indb 23 7/2/2010 3:05:21 PM

律賓外勞將相應受到衝擊，但事實看來正好

相反。確實是不時有幾十或數百名工人下

崗，間或引發恐慌，但其結果—拋開美元匯

款相關數據的支撐不談—恰恰相反。

And there are other reasons for the mistaken prediction. One relates to costs and the US$ itself. Let’s say an employer in Kuwait had two highly experienced crane operators and was forced to lay off one of them. One happened to be, say, a Bulgarian making US$ 1,400 and the other a Filipino making US$ 900. Which one would he lay off? The point that’s being made here is that the effect of the global financial crises on the Filipino OFW may be the opposite – in favor of Filipino OFWs. Cheaper in price and much more naturally fluent in English, the choice becomes a no brainer. And these criteria can actually have been applicable across all employment tier levels. In other words, assuming equal skills, let go of the more expensive counterpart and retain the one who also happen to better understand the English-speaking foreman or supervisor. 人們之所以作出錯誤預測還有其他原因，

其中之一便是成本與美元。舉例而言，科威

特的一位僱主有兩名經驗豐富的起重機操

作員，需要辭退其中一名。比方說一名是保

加利亞人，月薪1,400美元，而另一名則是

菲律賓人，月薪900美元。他會辭退哪一個

呢？本故事的用意是要說明全球金融危機對

菲律賓外勞的影響可能是反方向的—菲律賓

外勞變得更吃香。更加廉價，英文也更加流

暢，根本想都不用想就能作出選擇。這些標

準適用於所有就業層面。換言之，同等技能

條件下，應該放棄其中工錢更高者，留下能

更好理解英方領班或主管之命令的人。

Monitoring the figures of the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration (POEA), the government organization overseeing OFW opportunity, recruitment and deployment, there is a constant daily average of 25,000

openings for Filipino OFWs. This does nothing better than dispel what pundits and so-called experts on the subject had surmised would take place to the country’s OFW industry as soon as the global financial crisis even hinted it was on its way to becoming a full blown affair.透過對菲律賓海外就業管理局（POEA）

數據的監控，政府組織注意到外勞中蘊含

的機遇，遂積極招募，展開部署，平均每

天向菲律賓外勞提供25,000個職位空缺。

這有力推翻研究該課題的所謂學者專家在

金融危機甫一出現時便對菲國外勞產業給

出的預期，並暗示該產業正在走向全盛。

The regrettable part may be that resilient, talented and hard-working Filipinos have to venture abroad – and away from their families – to pursue their careers and maintain bread-winning ways commensurate with their families’ needs. There’s always hope that one day Filipinos will be able to put their reservoir of resources to use in developing their own nation. In the meantime though, there is huge consolation that their having to leave the land and the families they love to make a living is having a significantly positive effect on keeping the Philippines afloat.能屈能伸，智慧過人，勤勉努力的菲律

賓人不得不背井離鄉遠赴海外打拼，謀得

一份職業掙錢養家，令人唏噓感慨。人們

一直希望，有一天菲律賓人能將自己的人

力資源用於開發本國的土地。儘管如此，

令人格外欣慰的是他們離開祖國與親愛的

家人到異鄉謀生，對菲國的繁榮發展也起

到重要的推動作用。

In Part III of III of this expose, we will learn that the third of the Philippine’s triad of US$ earners, the Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) industry is fast closing the gap terms of becoming the most formidable resource of US$’s (although not number of employed). The industry’s double-digit annual increases in terms of US$ monetary revenue will give the OFW phenomenon a run for its US$ money in the not-too-distant future. 本系列之三將介紹菲律賓創匯「三駕馬

車」中的第三駕馬車：業務流程外判

（BPO）—該產業正在迎頭趕上，欲將成為

美匯的最大來源（儘管在受僱人數方面尚

不能如此）。該產業的美元收入每年以兩

位數增長，相信不久的將來便能與外勞分

庭抗禮。|AT|


Economy22

The regrettable part may be that resilient, talented

and hard-working Filipinos have to venture abroad – and away from their families – to

pursue their careers

AT July.indb 24 7/2/2010 3:05:22 PM

AT July.indb 25 7/2/2010 3:05:24 PM

its easy looking baCk, but there are always classic lessons to be learned.1929 was not a good year for investors, and it took a decade for the primitive wheels of commerce to grind back towards profitability. The capitalist cart had just begun rolling smoothly when Mr Hitler and his gang of filibusters sprang into view, spilled the beans and spoiled the broth, and dumped the world into a dizzy turmoil. In the back woods, Wall Street was a prime victim.

回顧歷史，我們有太多經驗教訓可循。

1929年對投資者來說是個災年，它讓雛

形中的商業車輪花了十年時間，才駛回財

富的軌道。那時候，資本主義世界方興未

艾，是希特勒和他的人馬到處興風作浪，

最終把世界攪個天翻地覆。而華爾街是這

一切的受害者。

In 2008 it was the turn of Wall Street (that bastion of ‘financial security’) to lead the charge down the dungeon of capitalist make believe ,and to upset the shiny apple cart, and dump the world in a credit crunch par excellence. In 2010 the USA and their European allies still flounder in this dirty bathwater. A dark and murky cloud drifts aimlessly in a financial playground, where smoke screens have become all the rage, in an effort to smooth over the turmoil, and disguise the oozing river of near ‘bankruptcy’ that flows as large as the Yangtze Kiang through the financial streets of the old World order. Back upstream the 3 gorges dam seems to do little to stem the flow of financial tears in the West.2008年，這一次華爾街（所謂「金融安

全」堡壘）充當了擾亂世界的元兇，一場

史無前例的信貸危機，徹底撕下了資本家

Blooming in the Face of

WORLD GLOOM

- Asian Investment FundsLead the Way不畏浮雲遮望眼

JULY 2010

24 Economy


-亞洲投資基金碩果累累

作者/By Bruce Curran

AT July.indb 24 7/2/2010 3:05:32 PM

的偽善面具，那些光鮮無比的宏偉藍圖，

刹那間飛灰湮滅。2010年，美國和它的歐

洲盟友們依舊在泥潭中苦苦掙扎，金融業

一片愁雲慘霧，到處烏煙瘴氣，平息動盪

不過是託辭，實則是掩人耳目，企圖掩

蓋舊的世界秩序下金融業兵敗如山倒的事

實，崩盤的危險如同洶湧的長江之水鋪天

蓋地而來，可縱然是三峽大壩也難抵擋西

方的金融危機洪流。

But in the East it is a different story. Asia is plainly and mysteriously on another financial planet. Feng shui; a definitive mind set; a shiny set of financial wheels; and a more respectful rung on the economic ladder, has actually boosted the Asian economies. 有道是「西方不亮東方亮」，亞洲的金

融狀況跟西方相比可謂冰火兩重天。亞洲

經濟的繁榮，固然可稱之為風水輪流轉，

但也歸功於其堅定的意志，穩健的金融體

系，還有腳踏實地攀登經濟階梯的精神。

At the heart of the matter is that new chestnut, China, somehow symbolised by the gleam and glitz of Pudong’s Pearl Tower, dominating the skyline like a rocket ship about to launch. The fact of the matter is that it has already taken to the skies, through the buzzing airways of commerce, industry, trade, and finance, supported by infrastructure and what the West, in their time of despair, might like to class as economic skulduggery. 中國的崛起最值得稱道。浦東天際線上

最亮麗的風景——東方明珠塔，宛如一架

火箭蓄勢待發，某種程度上它就是中國的

象徵。所不同的是中國早已展翅騰飛，依

託基礎設施的有力支撐，商業,工業,貿易

和金融全面開花。可是在日子並不好過的

西方，中國的經濟成就卻被某些人歪曲為

弄虛造假的結果。

The proof is in the pudding, and 2009 eventually saw a gigantic turnaround with some remarkable results in Asia. At the beginning of 2009 most investors were bent over and creaking in shock, sourly beaten by hideous falls in equity markets worldwide. While cash was being stored under larger mattresses at home, well away from the collapsed banking system, Asian equity markets took off apace and flourished in equity outer space. 事實不言自明，2009年亞洲以驕人的成

績讓人刮目相看。回首2009年初，全球股

市接連暴跌，投資者如驚弓之鳥惶惶不可

終日。人們抱定「現金為王」的信念，對

崩潰的銀行體系唯恐避之不及。然而亞洲

股市卻反其道而行，好似置身事外，一派

歌舞昇平。

Those investment funds lumped aptly under the grand title of “Emerging Markets”, or fine tuned under the title of a “BRIC” fund, have been raking in the profits. The question is – how much money came out early enough from under the mattress and was Asian invested?

那些冠以「新興市場」或者「金磚四國」

名目的投資基金皆賺得盆滿缽滿，然而你

可知道，有多少人能夠先知先覺，搶先投

資於亞洲？

The Frenchman Voltaire in the 1700s said, “Is there anyone so wise as to learn by the experience of others?” Yet in this day and age, and in the case of the Asian financial market boom in 2009, who was there (alongside you) to reap the rewards?十七世紀法國文豪伏爾泰說過：「懂得

汲取他人經驗的人就是聰明人。」今時今

日，在2009年的亞洲金融市場，誰是（如

你這般）收穫果實的人？

Everyone knows that when things have taken a big dip, that is the time to buy. After all as Ambrose Redmoon succinctly

put it “Courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the judgement that something else is more important than fear.” Naturally we all leapt into the Asian markets and took that plunge and made a killing. 眾所周知，大跌過後就是買入時機。安

布羅斯•瑞德沐一語道破天機：「勇氣不是

無所畏懼，而是因為看到比恐懼更重要的

東西。」於是我們投身亞洲股市，熬過暴

跌之苦，終於守得雲開，苦盡甘來。

This is all backed up by the words of TS Eliot who said, “Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.”托馬斯•斯特恩斯•艾略特說過：「只有

敢於冒險遠行的人，才知道自己究竟能夠

走多遠。」

You and I were ready on the sidelines to cash in on the cash cow, because, as George Bernard Shaw said, “The people who get on in this world are the people who get up and look for the circumstances they want, and if they can’t find them make them.’ At the end of the day William Shakespeare


Economy 25

1929 was not a good year for investors, and it took a decade for the primitive wheels of commerce to grind back towards profitability.

AT July.indb 25 7/2/2010 3:05:35 PM

said it all with the simple words, “The readiness is all.”當勝利來臨之際，你應做好準備。正如蕭

伯納所雲：「在這世界上，成功者是那些努

力尋找他們想要的機會的人，如果找不到機

會，他們就去創造機會。」總而言之，用莎

翁的話來說：「隨時準備著就是了。」

The investment house Jardine Fleming, have a Fund in Korea that made 66.7% in 2009. Their Thailand Fund made 84% over the same timeline, while in Taiwan their fund creamed in a growth of 64%. They are a British company who delisted on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange around the time of the British ‘handover’ of the territory to China, when China spoke of ‘150 years of shame’ while Britain ruled Hong Kong. Jardine Fleming were picked out by the Chinese as an example of this shame, amid a flurry of mainland accusations of being linked up with the Opium Wars, in the days when the British rulers issued Government licences to trade in Opium in another century. 投資機構怡富公司旗下的韓國基金2009

年上漲66.7%，泰國基金上漲84%，台灣基

金上漲64%。這家英資公司在英國向中國

「移交」香港殖民地，也就是中國一雪英

國統治香港「一百五十年之恥」的時候，

從香港聯交所摘牌退市。歷史上英國統治

者曾公開准許鴉片貿易，「鴉片戰爭」是

無數中國人的心頭之痛，而怡富公司便是

中國人眼中這個恥辱的代表之一。

Meanwhile the Baring investment managers posted a China select Fund result of 72%, which wasn’t too shabby for 2009. Going further west in the east, the HSBC group, an old chestnut in Asia, managed to rack up a 125% gain in their India Fund. Who has heard of the group Kotak, a new chestnut, who gave investors a profit of 104% in 2009 in India.與此同時，霸菱旗下的中國投資基金上

漲72%，這成績在2009年只算及格。在東半

球的西部，亞洲的老牌投資者滙豐集團，

其印度基金錄得125%的漲幅。名不見經傳

的科塔克集團，2009年也在印度實現104%

的豐厚回報。

Japan on the other hand, a highly sophisticated and developed Asian economy, tutored by the US investment house Mellon, turned in a loss of 3.83%. Down under, Jardine Fleming managed a 69% return in Australia.另一方面，作為高度發達成熟的亞洲經

濟體，日本市場全年下跌3.83%，成為美國

投資機構Mellon的傷心地。在澳洲，怡富

公司取得了69%的回報。

Meanwhile investing in most of Europe and the USA is a bit like pouring tea from a chocolate teapot. South America adds the B to BRIC funds with Brazil, and with South America comes under that lucid umbrella of “Emerging Markets”, and has also managed impressive results recently.歐洲和美國市場的投資大多顆粒無收，

而以「金磚四國」中的巴西為代表的南美

洲則讓投資者嘗到甜頭，這個新興市場的

表現可圈可點。

This is all very well, but what of the future? If you still fall into line and believe

in the old world order, then invest in USA and Western Europe, but beware that this investment flame might be getting as much protection for your capital as using a chocolate fire guard. There again shares in Kraft might get you a boost with Cadbury.


Economy26

Going further west in the east, the HSBC group, an old chestnut in Asia, managed to rack up a 125% gain in their India Fund. Who has heard of the group Kotak, a new chestnut, who gave investors a profit of 104% in 2009 in India.

AT July.indb 26 7/2/2010 3:05:40 PM

那麼，將來又當如何？假如你依然墨守

成規，相信舊的世界秩序，那就投資於美

國和西歐，但是千萬小心不要賠了夫人又

折兵。或許類似於卡夫併購吉百利的餡餅

還會從天而降。

The buzz words still have to be “Emerging Markets”, while the downturn in 2009 with the Hedge Fund industry and in Commodity Funds is being talked back up right now, profitability is forecast for 2010 and beyond. 真正熱門的地方非新興市場莫屬，2009

年失意而歸的對沖基金和商品基金有希望

東山再起，2010年及今後的「錢」景值得

看好。

It’s a complicated brew. But for those who made it in 2009 in Asia it is time to sit back on the brand new yacht, and enjoy the new beach cottage. 個中道理只可意會不可言傳，而對2009

年已經在亞洲取得成功的人來說，現在是

時候開啟嶄新旅程，享受投資的快樂。

Perhaps it is also time to take more cash from the stash beneath the mattress and trickle a dollar or three into those “Emerging Markets”, and place a wholesome wad into agricultural Commodities… after all, half the world lives on rice. Put your money where your mouth is, and invest in this fuel that drives the workers of the “emerging markets” – after all rice is Asia.眼下投資於新興市場時猶未晚，農產品

值得重點考慮，畢竟世界上的半數人口都

以大米為主食，而亞洲是大米的主產地，

這就是新興市場的機遇。

But the future signs are still only for the brave at heart. “Is there anyone so

wise as to learn by the experience of others?” The advice is simple, don’t fret, take the plunge, for “courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the judgement that something else is more important than fear.”未來掌握在勇敢者的手中。「懂得汲取

他人經驗的人就是聰明人」，道理很簡

單，不要怨天尤人，敢於直面風險，記住

「勇氣不是無所畏懼，而是因為看到比恐

懼更重要的東西」。

Indeed, its easy looking back, especially after the success of investing last year when the signs were obvious, and the lessons worked well when put to the test. Asia is definitively blooming in the face of the world gloom. 溫故而知新，去年的投資成績歷歷在

目，成敗得失值得深思。放眼亞洲，當世

界一片黯淡，風景這邊獨好。|AT|


Economy 27

The proof is in the pudding, and 2009 eventually saw a gigantic turnaround with some remarkable results in Asia. At the beginning of 2009 most investors were bent sourly beaten by hideous falls in equity markets worldwide. The buzz words still have to be “Emerging Markets”, while the downturn in 2009 with the Hedge

Fund industry and in Commodity Funds is being talked back up right now, profitability is forecast for 2010 and beyond.

AT July.indb 24 7/2/2010 3:05:48 PM


Integrated FacilitiesManagement in

越南綜合設施管理

Overview of Vietnam’s current Integrated Facilities Management (IFM) Services Market

28 Economy

淺談當今越南綜合設施管理(IFM)服務市場

作者/by Ranajay Dasgupta

Vietnam

AT July.indb 28 7/2/2010 3:05:51 PM

Economy 29

the market for ifm serviCes in Vietnam is at a very early stage of development. Facility management (FM) is generally regarded as routine cleaning and maintenance services of buildings that are performed by hiring cheap local cleaning contractors. In terms of customer awareness and market participation, Vietnam lags behind its South East Asian counterparts such as Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia.

越南綜合設施管理服務市場猶如一片待開墾的處女地。設施管理 (FM) 一般被理解為是

大廈的常規清潔及維護服務，通常聘用本地

要價較低的清潔公司完成。在客戶意識及市

場參與度方面，越南大大落後於馬來西亞 ,

新加坡 , 印尼等東南亞國家。

The market for outsourced FM services can be split into 2 typical types of service: single services and integrated services. Single service providers offer services within one service sphere only whereas integrated service providers offer services in multiple service spheres and in some cases, manage all the functions related to the facilities. 設施管理服務外判市場可分為兩大類：

單一服務與綜合服務。單一服務供應商僅

提供單個服務範疇的服務，而綜合服務供

應商則提供多個服務範疇的服務，甚至一

手包攬與設施相關的所有管理職能。

Single service providers, that are mainly cleaning companies, dominate the FM services market in Vietnam. The market is highly fragmented and industry participants vary from large domestic and international companies to small cleaning and maid agencies. Homegrown Pan Pacific Corp. is the largest cleaning service provider in Vietnam. International FM companies such as ADEN Services

and P.Dussman Vietnam Co. Ltd have limited market share in cleaning services but are more dominant players in other FM services such as catering and remote site management.越南的設施管理服務市場以單一服務

供應商為主，而單一服務供應商又以清潔

公司為主。市場高度分散，水平參差不

齊，既有國內外的大型企業，又有小型

清潔女傭中介。土生土長的 Pan Pacific

Corp. 是越南最大的清潔服務供應商，而

ADEN Services,P.Dussman Vietnam Co.

Ltd 等國際設施管理公司對清潔服務市場

投入有限，主攻配餐 , 遠郊管理等其他

設施管理服務。

Though the top–tier global real estate service providers such as CBRE, Jones Lang LaSalle and Colliers International are present in Vietnam, most of these companies are yet to start offering IFM services in the country. 雖然 CBRE,Jones LangLasalle,Colliers

International 等全球一流房地產服務供

應商均在越南設有辦事處，但大多還未推

出綜合設施管理服務。

Good potential for growth in IFM services in Vietnam越南綜合設施管理服務市場前景廣闊

The fledgling IFM services market in Vietnam has strong potential for growth due to a variety of independent as well as interrelated factors. Though the global financial crisis has taken its toll on the building construction industry, the amount of floor space being added, especially in the commercial office sector, continues to increase significantly from the ongoing projects. Ho Chi Minh City is set to see a three-fold increase in Grade A office space in the period 2009-2011. Close to


BuildingO & M

大廈運作與維護FM ScopeFM範圍

Source: Frost & Sullivan資料來源：Frost & Sullivan

PropertyManagement

物業管理SupportServices

支援服務

IntegratedFM Services

綜合設施管理服務

SingleService單一服務

IT &Telecomms

IT & 電訊

Environmental Management

環境管理

AT July.indb 27 7/2/2010 3:05:55 PM

Economy30


200,000 sq. m. of Grade A and B office space was added in Hanoi in 2009. New office buildings are expected to be more technologically advanced and are required to adhere to stringent environmental norms. Professionalism in facility management is expected to increase and the trend to outsourcing to IFM services providers can grow in the process.羽翼未豐的越南綜合設施管理服務市場

前景廣闊，其原因看似各不相干，但又彼

此關連。雖然全球經濟危機為房屋建造業

敲響了警鐘，但新竣工樓面面積卻持續快

速增長，尤其是商用寫字樓領域。預計

2009-2011 年胡志明市的甲級寫字樓地方

將增長三倍，2009 年河內甲級和乙級寫字

樓地方將增加近 200,000 平方米。新寫字

樓將採用更先進的技術，需奉行嚴格的環

境規範。設施管理的專業化程度有望提升，

綜合設施管理服務對外判亦將越來越依賴。

Following the trend in other Asian countries, the demand for IFM ser-vices is expected to come mainly from large multinationals setting up offices in Vietnam. With an increasing pres-ence of multinationals, especially in the financial services, IT and telecom sector, there is a potential growth op-portunity for IFM service providers.與亞洲其他國家的發展趨勢一樣，越南

綜合設施管理服務需求將主要來自在國內

設置辦事處的大型跨國公司。隨著越來

越多跨國公司來到越南，越來越多金融服

務 ,IT 和電訊公司的湧入，展現在綜合設

施管理服務供應商眼前的是一個頗具成長

潛力的市場。

The rise in pollution is a burning issue in Vietnam that has led the government to temporarily stop the development of industrial parks in certain provinces. All industrial facilities need to have adequate water and waste treatment facilities. IFM service providers with consultative skills in energy and waste management can expect a potential growth opportunity.越南的污染問題迫在眉睫，政府暫停了

若干省份的工業園建設。只要有工業設施

的地方，就需要有充足的供水和廢物處理

設施，因此能夠提供能源和廢物管理諮詢

服務的綜合設施管理服務供應商前景可期。

Apart from the above three factors, the increasing trend to outsource non-core operations by the businesses is expected to increase the demand for third party IFM services. However, the trend in Vietnam has so far been to outsource to local cleaning service providers. It re-mains to be seen how IFM service pro-viders can differentiate themselves from routine cleaning service providers and increase their footprint in the market.除上述三大因素之外，非核心業務的外

判趨勢亦將刺激對第三方綜合設施管理服

務的需求。然而越南目前還只停留在聘用

國內清潔服務供應商的階段。綜合設施管

理服務供應商如何將自己與常規清潔服務

供應商區別開來，如何立足市場，這是一

個值得關切的問題。

Market restraints that dampen the prospect of growth制約因素令發展前景蒙陰

While there seems to be a good prospect for growth for IFM services

in Vietnam, a number of factors can pose a strong restraining effect. The awareness about the benefits of outsourcing FM services to third party service providers is very low and is likely to remain so in the near future. The preference to manage facilities in-house continues

to be high, especially among local companies. Cleaning and security services are generally outsourced to cheap local players. Hence, the trend to engage professional IFM service providers is low.越南的綜合設施管理服務市場前景固然

明朗，但亦受制於多種因素。企業對於將

設施管理服務外判給第三方服務供應商的

益處認識不夠，且短期內可能很難轉變觀

點。設施管理自行處理之風盛行，本土企

業尤其如此。清潔與安保服務常常交由國

內低端供應商打理，聘請專業綜合設施管

理服務供應商的意識淡薄。

The strong connections with local companies and the benefit of local market knowledge continue to help homegrown players dominate the FM services market. International IFM companies face chal-lenges to penetrate the market, given they do not enjoy the cost benefits and connections with local government and businesses.憑藉與國內企業千絲萬縷的聯繫以及對

本地市場的深入了解，本土供應商依舊在

設施管理服務市場佔據主導。國際綜合設

施管理公司一無成本優勢，二缺政商人脈，

Cost is the single most important criteria for outsourcing FM operations to third party service providers in most cases

AT July.indb 28 7/2/2010 3:05:59 PM


Economy 31

在開拓市場方面難免碰壁。

Cost is the single most important criteria for outsourcing FM operations to third party service providers in most cases. This short-term vision by the companies almost always leads them to handpick cheap local players for facility maintenance. Local players hire cheap semi-skilled and unskilled labour and hence enjoy cost advantages over international IFM service providers. Government facilities are managed in-house or by local FM companies (mostly cleaners) that maintain strong relationships and connections with the government. Budget allocation for FM services is low, limiting the opportunities for IFM players.在多數情況下，成本是企業判斷是否將

設施管理業務外判給第三方服務供應商的

最重要標準。從短期利益考慮，企業大多

會選擇便宜的本地設施維護服務供應商。

本地供應商聘用非熟練工人和半熟練工

人，因此成本比國際綜合設施管理服務供

應商要低得多。政府設施的管理一般由內

部消化，或者派給與政府交往甚密的本地

設施管理公司（多為清潔公司）。設施管

理服務預算低，也是限制綜合設施管理服

務市場發展的原因之一。

There are other issues that might dissuade the IFM service providers from operating in Vietnam. Mechanical and Electrical (M & E) services, which can be a significant revenue earner for FM companies, are generally managed by in-house engineers and not outsourced. Customers, especially during current difficult economic environments, have turned price-sensitive and margins for FM companies have typically gone down and vary currently between 5% and 10%.還有一些問題亦會迫使綜合設施管理服

務供應商放棄越南市場。機電服務 (M &

E) 可謂是設施管理公司的一個重要收入來

源，而在越南這一般是由內部工程師負責，

鮮有外判。眼下正值經濟不景氣之時，客

戶對價格變得尤為敏感，設施管理公司的

利潤空間普遍收窄，目前介乎5%-10%之間。

The challenges explained above can have a relatively strong adverse impact on the potential growth of the IFM services market and hinder Vietnam

from being a strong market for IFM services, unlike countries such as Singapore and Malaysia.上述挑戰將囿制綜合設施管理服務市場

的發展潛力，阻礙越南成為像新加坡 , 馬

來西亞等國家一樣的綜合設施管理服務大

市場。

Prospective growth opportunities潛在發展機遇

Construction in real estate, rising concern about pollution, and an increase in focus on energy conservation are expected to influence the growth of IFM services in Vietnam. While the trend to outsource all types of FM services will grow in the future, the demand for integrated services is not expected to rise dramatically, at least in the next 3–4 years. The banking, IT, and telecom sectors are expected to offer the maximum growth opportunity for IFM players. Growth of IFM services is driven by these sectors in emerging economies such as Indonesia. The industrial sector, especially the oil and gas and power industries, are also expected to drive the growth of the IFM market as businesses

AT July.indb 29 7/2/2010 3:06:01 PM


Economy32

start outsourcing their non-core activities, a trend observed in other Asian countries. 房地產業如火如荼，污染問題日益突出，

節能意識深入人心，這些都將影響越南綜

合設施管理服務市場的發展前景。設施管

理服務全面外判是必然發展趨勢，但至少

在未來 3-4 年內，綜合服務的需求難見可

觀增長。銀行 ,IT 及電訊行業將成為綜合

設施管理服務供應商的主要客源，印尼等

新興市場的綜合設施管理服務市場正是受

到這些行業的推動。工業領域，尤其是油

氣及電力行業亦有可能為綜合設施管理市

場的發展注入動力，因為在其他亞洲國家

的這些企業中已經出現了將非核心業務外

判出去的勢頭。

The current market for integrated services is less than 1% of the potential FM services market. While this might be encouraging news to the IFM service providers, the process of gaining foothold in the Vietnam market will be difficult and fraught with various challenges. IFM players need to differentiate themselves from local specialized FM players by creating awareness of the value-added services they can provide compared to regular cleaning or security service providers. They should highlight their expertise in energy and waste management, best practices benchmarking, and IT-enabled services.在當下的設施管理服務市場，綜合服務

不足 1%。一方面來看，這對綜合設施管

理服務供應商當屬利好，但另一方面來

看，越南的市場開發之路必將充滿艱辛與

挑戰。綜合設施管理供應商需創造增值服

務概念，表明其能提供常規清潔或安保服

務供應商所無法提供服務，藉此將自己與

國內專業設施管理供應商區別開來。突出

自己在能源與廢物管理 , 最佳實踐標桿和

服務科技化方面的專長才是綜合設施管理

供應商的制勝法寶。|AT|

The current market for integrated services is less than 1% of the potential FM services market

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AT July.indb 28 7/2/2010 3:06:05 PM











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AT July.indb 29 7/2/2010 3:06:06 PM

JULY 2010

34 Economy


malaysia’s neW Prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak has been around politics long enough to know that if you are going to make a change and stamp your seal of authority on the political landscape then you have to do this quickly and incisively. As with United States President Obama, observers were keen to assess Najib’s first 100 days in office for signs of the way in which Malaysia’s sixth prime minister was leading his revamped government and the nation in general.

馬來西亞新首相納吉浸淫政壇多年，他深

知若要革舊鼎新並在政治版圖上打下自己的烙印，就必須雷厲風行，堅決果斷。和美國總統奧巴馬一樣，觀察家們都想對納吉的「百日新政」探個究竟，從中研判這位大馬第六任首相將把他的新政府和整個國家帶向何方。

When Najib took office on April 3, 2009 his Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition government’s stranglehold on Malaysian

politics was being pressured by increasing support for the various opposition parties. Over the past few years opposition has been mounting in the country against the coalition which has dominated and led Malaysian politics for over 50 years.

2009年4月3日納吉上任之際，他領導的國民陣線（國陣）聯合政府曾在反對黨重

壓下四面楚歌，對政局的掌控有心無力。過去這幾年，國內反對派勢力漸盛，執掌大馬政壇半個多世紀的國陣聯盟面臨重重考驗。

Najib’s policies have been received positively by the bulk of the population and his approval rating has shot up to 65% from just 46% in his first month

PHOTOGRAPH © NURUL IZZAH ANWAR

Najib Takes Control of Malaysia作者 /by David Bowden馬來西亞：納吉漸入佳境

AT July.indb 30 7/2/2010 3:06:16 PM


Economy 35

in office. These figures are derived from a survey conducted by the independent Merdeka Centre and suggest that this is a clear sign that most Malaysians support his decisive leadership in reforming the country’s economy which has been affected by the global downturn.

納吉的政策受到民眾普遍歡迎，他的支持率從上任首月的46%躍升至65%。這些數字來自獨立調查機構Merdeka Centro的一次調查，表明大多數馬來西亞人都支持他們這位果敢的領袖，以及他對深受全球經濟衰退衝擊的國民經濟進行的改革。

Perhaps not surprisingly, almost 75% of the nation’s Malay population was satisfied with Najib’s performance. Indians surveyed were equally impressed but only 50% of the nation’s second largest ethnic group, the Chinese, had been won over by the prime minister’s initiatives. However, a spokesperson from the Merdeka Centre suggested that the figure is more a wait-and-see response.

並不意外的是，大約有將近75%的馬來族裔滿意納吉的表現，來自印度族裔的支持率也頗為可觀。然而作為第二大族群的華裔，卻僅有50%的人讚同首相的舉措，不過Merdeka Centro的發言人說有不少人沒有表態，而是選擇等等看。

Perhaps it’s not surprising that the support from Chinese Malaysians isn’t so high as many see the government’s affirmative action policies to bring up the Malay population (and Orang Asli and native East Malaysian communities – known collectively as Bumiputra) as being unfair. Known as the New Economic Policy, it was introduced in 1971 and while officially it ended in 1990, many of the tangible economic benefits that flowed to certain sections of Malaysian society are ongoing.

馬來西亞華人的支持率不那麼高，也許不足為奇，因為許多人都覺得政府的平權政策（affirmative action policies）偏向馬來

族群（包括原住民（Orang Asli）和土生土長的東馬來西亞各族，統稱「土著」（Bumiputra），所以有失公平。這個所謂的「新經濟政策」（New Economic Policy）出台於1971年，雖然1990年就已壽終正寢，可如今還是有許多實質的經濟利益流向馬來西亞社會的某些群體。

Like most other world economies, Malaysia’s economy has been affected by the global economic crisis and pressure was on Najib and his government to kick start the ailing local economy. Najib, who is also the finance minister, recognised the need to free up the economy and quickly set about liberalising various sub sectors of the economy. So far 27 sub-sectors of the services industry have been reformed and the banking and finance industry has been thrown open.

和世界多數經濟體一樣，馬來西亞也深受全球經濟危機衝擊。納吉和他的政府首當其衝的要務就是重振本國經濟。身兼財政部長的納吉承認需要解放經濟，從速開放經濟中的各個分支部門。迄今服務業已有27個分支部門被改革，銀行和金融業也已敞開大門。

Perhaps his boldest step has been to repeal Foreign Investment Committee (FIC) guidelines that many observers consider to have long hampered efforts to attract foreign investors to Malaysia. In effect, the 30% equity requirement for Bumiputra investment for every initial public share offering has been done away with.

最大膽的舉動當屬廢除外資委員會（FIC）的有關指引，這些條條框框被許多觀察家認為是長期以來妨礙外國投資者前來大馬投資的絆腳石。與此同時，要求每宗首次公開招股必須留出30%股本給土著投資的規定亦被廢止。

In making the brave move, the prime minister announced at the recent InvestMalaysia Conference 2009 that: “After 19 years, the FIC has failed to achieve its objective of increasing Bumiputra equity to 30%. We need a new instrument which is more robust and investor-friendly.”

在近期的「2009投資大馬大會」（InvestMalaysia Conference 2009）上，首相宣佈這一舉措時稱：「經過十九年的運作，FIC未能實現增加土著股權至30%的目標，所以我們需要探索一條更具活力和善待投資者的新路。」

Research indicates that the Bumiputra

equity of listed shares on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange stands at only 19.4% mostly because those who were allocated shares in the initial offering sold them almost immediately to make quick profits. Najib pacified any possible Bumiputra outcry by stating that the objective was still to achieve 30% Bumiputra ownership in the long run while ensuring that capital markets became more investor-friendly. He recognised that the role of the FIC had been criticised by certain quarters as it did little to alleviate the plight of the nation’s poor while only enriching a select few.

研究表明土著股權僅佔吉隆坡證券交易所上市股份的19.4%，主要因為那些在首次發售中獲分配股份的人，經常立刻就轉手賣掉股份從中套利。為平息土著群體的不滿，納吉說此舉的目標仍舊是確保土著股權在長期內達致30%，同時令資本市場對投資者更具吸引力。他意識到FIC早已成為眾矢之的，在扶貧濟困方面毫無建樹，反而讓少數人從中漁利。

He explained that companies will be required to offer half of the public shareholding spread to Bumiputra investors. Companies currently have to offer the general public 25% of all shares offered during an Initial Public

Perhaps not surprisingly, almost 75% of the

nation’s Malay population was satisfied with

Najib’s performance

AT July.indb 31 7/2/2010 3:06:20 PM


Economy36

Ex-prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi

Offering (IPO).他解釋說，公司將被要求把公眾持股量

的一半發售給土著投資者。現行規定是公司須把首次公開招股（IPO）時全部股份的25%發售給公眾。

In making the announcement, Najib stated that the FIC would be replaced with a new investment institution called Ekuiti Nasional Berhad (Ekuinas) to act as a private equity fund with an initial capital outlay of RM500 million (US$140 million). The plan is to grow the fund 20 times to RM10 billion and to focus on investment sectors which provide high growth. Najib added: “This is not to help just any Bumiputra company but only those which are really capable and with calibre.”

宣佈這個消息時，納吉說FIC將被一個名為「國民股權公司」（Ekuiti Nasional Berhad，簡稱Ekuinas）的全新投資機構所取代。Ekuinas將充當一支私募股權基金，原始資本為馬幣5億元（1.4億美元）。計劃把基金規模擴大20倍，達到馬幣100億元，重點投資於高增長領域。納吉續指：「此舉並不只是幫助土著公司，而是要幫助那些真正有實力，有才能的公司。」

Najib maintains that the new policy guidelines will ensure a win-win for all and that no Malaysian must feel marginalised or disincentivised. He admitted that achieving this was going to be a tricky balancing act but one that was achievable.

納吉說新的政策方針會帶來多贏的結果，任何國民都不會感到被邊緣化或冷落。他承認要達到這一點需要巧妙平衡各方利益，但這是可以辦到的。

While there has been across the board support for the new economic policies, one of Najib’s staunch allies,

ex prime minister Mahathir was not so impressed with the new measures and dismissed Najib’s efforts to liberalise the economy and was quoted in the local press as saying they were, “Not going to help anyone; the Indians, Malays or Chinese.”

新的經濟政策雖然獲得廣泛支持，可是納吉的堅定盟友之一 — 前任首相馬哈迪卻不以為然，他對納吉的經濟自由化舉措反應冷淡，當地媒體引述他的話說這些舉措「對任何人都沒好處，無論印度裔，馬來裔還是華裔」。

However, foreign investors should see the policies positively as they will no longer have to obtain approval for acquisitions and mergers. Foreign shareholder limits in existing share broking firms have also been increased to up to 70% from the previous 49%. Further reforms now enable 100% ownership in the wholesale segment of

the fund management industry.不過，外國投資者應當會歡迎這些政

策，因為他們不必再費盡心思取得兼併收購的審批。外資參股券商的持股比例限制已從原先的49%放寬到70%。經過進一步改革後，基金管理行業的批發業務現已允許外資100%控股。

Perhaps the government had little choice as Malaysia now competes for limited resources with other investment-hungry nations in the region. Najib and his government were faced with the possibility of the economy shrinking further and reforms were necessary for it to remain competitive. The new economic measures are also designed to change the country’s growth structure by having the services sector lead the way with a planned 75% of GDP up from the current figure of 54%.

其實這也是政府的無奈之舉，因為馬來西亞要跟區內其他國家爭奪有限的投資來源。擺在納吉和他的政府面前是經濟的進一步萎縮，若要保持競爭力，改革勢在必行。新的經濟政策將通過振興服務業來調整國家經濟的增長結構，把服務業佔GDP的比重從目前的54%提升到75%。

In time to come, many economic observers may reflect upon the economic changes recently introduced by the Najib government and reflect upon how these steps were necessary in order to benefit all Malaysians.

今後一定有許多經濟觀察家會審視納吉政府這次的經濟改革，究竟能給馬來西亞百姓帶來多少實惠，讓我們拭目以待。|AT|

Jalan Petaling (Petaling Street), is a Chinatown located in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The country is populated by immigrants from different parts of Asia

PHOTOGRAPH © ALFRED MOLON

Ex prime minister Mahathir was

not so impressed with the new

measures... saying they were, “Not going to help anyone; the Indians,

Malays or Chinese”

AT July.indb 32 7/2/2010 3:06:24 PM

there’s no doubt that the last twelve months have been tough on all the smaller Asian economies. The luckier ones, with relatively self-sufficient domestic populations and only modest export exposure, have stayed on course but have found it tough to attract foreign investment amid the general rush for safe currency havens. The less fortunate ones, with more internationalised economies, have seen their economies badly damaged by falling appetites in Europe and the United States. All of them are having to readjust their policy positions in order to accommodate the growing economic might of China.

毋庸置疑，亞洲所有規模較小的經濟體在

過去十二個月內幾乎度日如年。有些國家

經濟相對保持自給自足，對出口的依賴有

限，較為幸運，但在熱錢尋求避風港的背

景下，吸引外國投資變得愈發艱難。而經

濟全球化程度較深的國家難有這般好運，

受歐美市場需求急跌的影響，其經濟遭受

重創。這些國家不得不重新調整政策定

位，以便迎合中國不斷增長的經濟需求。

Vietnam and Laos are two of the more problematic investment locations from a foreigner’s point of view. Unlike neighbouring Cambodia, which has been a multi-party democracy since 1985, they are still essentially single-party communist regimes which restrict foreign companies’ activities, while also reserving certain priority sectors for government-dominated businesses. Vietnam’s stock market is small, poorly regulated, and attracts only marginal interest from foreign investors. And Laos’s market is not due to open at all until next year. Yet both countries are being sought after by international corporations eager to take direct equity stakes. There are major differences in the way they have chosen to go about meeting that demand.在外國人看來，越南和老撾是兩個問題

重重的投資目的地。這裏與1985年建立多

党民主政體的鄰國柬埔寨截然不同，兩國

仍保持一黨專政的共產主義政體，嚴格限

制外國公司的活動，特定重要行業仍保持

政府主導。越南股票市場規模較小，監管

不力，僅有少量外國投資人關注。而老撾

市場在明年之前都不會開放。但這兩個國

家均得到跨國企業的關注，希望把握機會

進行直接股權投資。為滿足跨國企業的投

資需求，兩國選擇的方式迥異。

Both countries have been making strong economic growth. Laos’s GDP grew by an impressive 7.1% in the first half of 2009, thanks in large part to a combination of government and private investment and a progressive loosening of controls. But Vietnam which managed “only” 3.9% growth in the first half, is facing an intractable problem which seems likely to defeat its hopes of achieving a 6.5% overall figure for the year.


Economy 37

A T A L E O F T W O E C O N O M I E SVietnam Laos&

The less fortunate ones, with more internationalised economies, have seen their economies badly damaged by

falling appetites in Europe and the United States

各有特點, 但息息相關越南和老撾

作者/by Michael Wilson

AT July.indb 33 7/2/2010 3:06:30 PM

兩國經濟均實現強勁增長。2009年上半

年，老撾 GDP 增長高達7.1％，令人印象

深刻，政府與私人投資的結合以及放寬政

府控制是主要貢獻因素。但越南在今年上

半年「僅」實現3.9％的增長，經濟發展

面臨棘手問題，實現全年增長6.5％的目

標似乎無望。

Vietnam Opens Up the Credit Taps越南放開信貸

To put it very simply, Vietnam has been stepping on the throttle when it should have been standing on the brakes instead. Having suffered 28% inflation in 2008 - the result of a booming consumer economy and a hideously loose lending policy - the government introduced a Dong 100 trillion (US$6 billion) economic stimulus package in January that has sent the country hurtling out of control. Vietnam’s domestic credit volume grew by a massive 17% during the first half of 2009 alone, and even the official projections for the whole year are currently running

at 25%-27%. Small wonder, then, that inflation is still roaring and that the currency is sliding. Many analysts regard the official inflation figure of 10% as a fiction, arguing that the figures have been massaged down and that prices are bound to surge again toward the end of the year. 簡言之，越南在本應收縮信貸的時期錯誤

選擇放開信貸。在消費經濟蓬勃發展和寬鬆

信貸政策的影響下，越南2008年通貨膨脹率

高達28％，政府於今年1月啟動100萬億越南

盾（60億美元）的經濟刺激計劃，導致通貨

膨脹失控。僅在2009年上半年，越南國內信

貸量猛增17％，官方預計，全年信貸量增幅

將達到25％－27％。有人擔憂，越南的通貨

膨脹率仍然居高不下，貨幣持續貶值。諸多

分析人士認為，官方公佈的10％的通貨膨脹

率不實，政府刻意低估該數據，預計今年年

底物價將再次飛漲。

Unsurprisingly, foreigners are rattled by this prospect. Total foreign direct investment (FDI) disbursements into Vietnam fell by 22.5% in the first seven months of 2009 to just US$4 billion, according to the Australian-based Intellasia news agency. More shocking, though, was that new forward FDI commitments collapsed by 77%.境外投資人對這種前景憂心忡忡，令人

毫不意外。據澳洲 Intellasia 通訊社報

道，2009年前7個月，越南的外商直接投資

（FDI）下降22.5％，僅為40億美元。而更

令人震驚的是，新外商直接投資意向急跌

77％。

This would be a problem in any year, but it’s a complete disaster in 2009 when the Finance Ministry is still trying to raise US$45 billion of new foreign investment to help fund a US$150 billion development programme. Without that development programme, roads won’t be built, electricity won’t be generated, and both production and export potential will suffer. Vietnam’s government will need to act decisively if the whole programme is not to be derailed.在任何年份，這種狀況都是嚴重問題，而

在2009年很可能成為一場真正的災難，因為

越南財政部仍在努力吸引450億美元的新外

商投資，為1500億美元的發展

計劃提供資金。如果這些發展

計劃無法實施，將無法修建道

路，無法發電，生產和出口均

會受到重挫。要想確保計劃順

利實施，越南政府必須採取果

斷措施。

Laos Prefers Deregulation老撾更傾向於放寬管制

Laos, on the other hand, seems to be managing at least some of these things rather better. GDP grew by a healthy 7.1% during the first half of 2009, according to the Vientiane Times. But, like Vietnam, Laos is still struggling to keep its inflation levels down - not because of burgeoning consumer demand, but because of the rising cost of essential imports - notably oil, foodstuffs and transport equipment. Current estimates of price inflation in Laos are around 8.5%, which would be slightly less than in 2008. But it’s interesting that even these elevated levels of inflation have not yet forced the central bank into devaluing the managed-float currency:


Economy38

Vietnam has been stepping on the throttle when it should have been standing on the brakes instead

Nguyen Minh Triet President of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam

AT July.indb 34 7/2/2010 3:06:32 PM


Economy 39

instead, the kip’s current rate of 8,670 to the US dollar compares rather favourably with a rate of 8,830 in September 2008 and a significantly weaker 10,823 in September 2005. (Source: oanda.com)另一方面，老撾在上述部分方面的管理

措施似乎更為得當。據《萬向時報》報

道，老撾2009年上半年 GDP 健康增長7.1

％。但與越南不同的是，老撾正努力將通

貨膨脹控制在較低水平，原因並不在於消

費需求激增，而在於基礎進口商品成本上

漲，其中石油，食品和運輸設備的價格增

長尤其顯著。老撾目前的價格通脹約為8.5

％，較之2008年略低。但有意思的是，在

通脹率達到高位的情況下，老撾中央銀行

仍未使政府管制的老撾貨幣貶值：相反，

基普對美元的匯率為8,670：1，而2008年

9月的匯率為8,830：1，2005年9月曾低至

10,823：1（資訊來源：oanda.com）。

This is not to say that everything is well with the economy. Prime Minister Bouasone Bouphavanh acknowledged in August that achieving the planned 7.5% economic growth in 2009/2010 will be more difficult than expected, thanks to the difficult international economic climate. That might be putting it rather mildly. 這並不意味著老撾經濟一切良好。老

撾總理 Bouasone Bouphavanh 今年8月表

示，受嚴峻國際經濟環境的影響，於2009

／2010年經濟增長實現7.5％的目標難度超

出預期。這實在是一種委婉的說法。

For more than a decade, Laos has recognised that its best hope of developing its poor infrastructure is to build on its

favourable trade relations with Vietnam, Australia, Thailand and the United States. But in some respects it’s working harder than Vietnam on the task of attracting capital. 十多年來，老撾一致認為，與越南，澳

洲，泰國和美國建立互惠貿易關係是發展

其薄弱基礎設施的最佳途徑。在吸引外資

方面，老撾付出的努力甚至超出越南。

Unlike Vietnam, which limits foreigners to 30% control of most businesses, Laos allows them 100% ownership - although foreigners need government approval to get into tourism, heavy machinery operations, forestry or rice farming. (They are also barred completely from banking, which is almost entirely state-run.) Generally, the FDI procedures have recently been liberalised so that local authorities

and investment zones can act on their own decentralised initiative. And the government is also introducing tax breaks of up to 10 years for FDI investors, while also speeding up the approvals process to bring in more foreign investment.越南將多數行業的外資控股比例限制在

30％以下，老撾與之不同，允許外資100％

控股，但外資進入旅遊，重型機械製造，

林業或大米種植業須得到政府審批（老撾

完全禁止外資涉足銀行業，老撾銀行業幾

乎全由國家經營）。就總體而言，老撾近

期的外商直接投資審批流程有所放寬，

地方政府和投資特區可按照自己的計劃吸

引外資。老撾政府還為外國直接投資人提

供長達10年的稅收優惠，同時加速審批流

程，以便吸引更多外國投資。

So far, so good. But the problem is that, at present, the bulk of the foreign investment is coming from Vietnam - which of course has problems of its own. Vietnamese companies ploughed $812 million into the economy during 2008, making Laos its biggest foreign investment client. The Vietnamese investments centre mainly on mining, hydro-electric power and wood processing operations. But can they still be afforded next year if things remain tough in Vietnam’s own economy? That’s a tough question. And unfortunately, Laos has a lot riding on the answer.老撾的經濟發展目前形勢尚佳。但問題在

於，目前大量外國投資來自越南，這些投

資人難免自身問題重重。2008年，越南企業

向老撾投資8.12億美元，老撾成為越南最大

的境外投資目的地。越南企業主要投資於礦

業，水電和木材加工項目。假如越南經濟持

續惡化，明年是否還會有資金注入老撾呢？

這個問題很難回答。不幸的是，問題的答案

與老撾的經濟發展息息相關。|AT|

Luang Prabang Markt, Laos

Traffic in Saigon, Vietnam

AT July.indb 35 7/2/2010 3:06:33 PM

as one of the World’s mostpopular tourist destinations, Bali has often been praised as the “Best Island in the World” by international travel magazines. This paradise island of gods and temples is one of the mainstays of Indonesia’s tourism industry.

峇里島是享譽世界的度假勝地，被國際旅

遊雜誌譽為「世界最佳島嶼」。這座在神

靈神廟庇佑下的天堂之島，是印尼旅遊業

的中流砥柱。

The 2002 Bali bombing was a terrible human tragedy, and a huge blow for its economy: the rate of tourism decreased by 31%. More bombings have followed in Jakarta, and Bali was hit by a second attack in 2005. Yet despite these devastating attacks, concerted efforts to revive Bali’s tourism industry have been successful: improved security measures

and efforts to bring the perpetrators to justice have restored international confidence that Bali is safe. 2002年的峇里島爆炸案是一場人間悲

劇，嚴重打擊了經濟：遊客人數驟降31%。

後來雅加達又發生多起爆炸案，2005年峇

里島再度遇襲。恐怖襲擊過後，人們痛定

思痛，齊心協力重振峇里島旅遊業：安保

措施全面升級，罪魁禍首得到嚴懲，峇里

島的安全重獲國際信任。

Consequently, more than two million foreign tourists visited Bali in 2008 -- almost a third of Indonesia’s overall target for that year. And international tourist arrivals in Bali for the seven months to July 2009 were recorded at over 1.2 million -- a growth of around 12 percent over the same period in 2007.結果，2008年峇里島吸引外國遊客超過

兩百萬人，幾乎是印尼當年目標總數的三

分之一。2009年7月之前的七個月，抵達峇

里島的國際遊客人數達到創紀錄的120萬

人，比2007年同期增長12%左右。

Balinese tourism operators and government officials have been sufficiently encouraged by these figures to say that Bali’s tourism industry has not only fully recovered from its near collapse in the aftermath of the bombs, but even surpassed its pre-bombings growth rate. Moreover, this strong performance continued despite the global

JULY 2010

40 Tourism


Tourism 峇里島旅遊業走和諧發展之路

They argue that tourism, which initially

functioned merely as a supporting sector, has been

excessively developed

作者/By Steve Lunt

BaLiin the

BaLance

AT July.indb 40 7/2/2010 3:06:43 PM

financial crisis and H1N1 pandemic. 這些數字足以令峇里島的旅遊業者和政

府官員鼓足底氣說，峇里島旅遊業不僅徹

底走出爆炸案過後慘淡經營的局面，甚至

已超越爆炸案之前的增長速度。更可喜的

是，就連席捲全球的金融危機和H1N1流感

亦未能阻擋峇里島前進的腳步。

But the rapid growth of development in tourism has had a big impact and influence on Balinese tradition and lifestyles. Local observers believe its tourism industry has been overdeveloped, with some Indonesian media commentators even going so far as to say that Bali is on the brink of destruction, due to mismanagement in tapping its local potential. They argue that tourism, which initially functioned merely as a supporting sector, has been excessively developed -- while agriculture, formerly the backbone of the island’s economy, has been neglected or even sacrificed for the sake of tourism. They point to examples, such as the widespread conversion of paddy fields and beautiful landscapes into construction sites for hotels and villas. 然而，旅遊業的飛速增長卻給峇里人的

古老傳統和生活方式帶來了巨大衝擊和影

響。本地觀察人士認為峇里島的旅遊業開

發過度，更有印尼媒體評論員尖銳指出，

因為對自身潛能管理不善，峇里島已瀕臨

毀滅的邊緣。他們說當初旅遊業不過是一

個輔助產業，但是現在已經開發氾濫，從

前作為島上經濟支柱的農業卻被冷落，甚

至為了旅遊業而不惜犧牲農業，比如大片

的農田和優美的山水，現在都變成了酒店

和別墅的建築工地。

Bali may still be the icon of Indonesian tourism, but according to a senior Indonesian economist, Professor Dr. Emil Salim, it is destined to lose its true bearings as a religious, cultural, and nature destination, which will result in a decline in the quality of international tourists drawn to the island. 峇里島是印尼旅遊業的象徵，但印尼資

深經濟學家和教授埃米爾•薩利姆博士卻認

為，峇里島註定將會失去它作為宗教,文化

和自然勝地的真正內涵，隨之而來的必然

是前來島上觀光的外國遊客質素的下降。

Dr. Salim is an advisor to President Yudhoyono, and a respected Indonesian elder statesman. He is a US-trained economist, who held four cabinet portfolios between 1971 and 1993. Dr. Salim also advises the World Bank, which lists him as an “Eminent Person”.薩利姆博士是蘇西洛總統的顧問，是國

內德高望重的老一輩政治家。作為曾在美

國深造過的經濟學家，他於1971年至1993

年四次入選內閣。薩利姆博士亦是世界銀

行的顧問，世行稱他是「顯要人物」。

Speaking at a workshop on tourism held recently in Bali, Dr. Salim warned: “If seen solely from the quantity of tourists coming to Bali in the last few years, there has certainly been an increase, but the income derived from each tourist as measured in money spent, and length of stay is still far below the corresponding

numbers from Malaysia. This is because Bali has lost its character and bearings, otherwise often referred to as ‘branding’”.最近在峇里島舉行的一次旅遊業研討會

上，薩利姆博士警告說：「過去幾年前來

峇里島的遊客數量確有增長，但是從人均

消費看，每名遊客所產生的收入，以及停

留時間依舊遠遜馬來西亞。這是因為峇里

島喪失了它的個性和內涵，換言之就

是『徒有其表』。」

The Bali Tourism Board claims: “It is the Balinese civilization that makes the island different from other destinations.” But in reviewing the current state of tourism to the island, Dr. Salim referred to a popular dish of mixed blanched vegetables served with a peanut sauce, saying: “Tourism, as it is currently developing in Bali, has become ‘gado-gado tourism’ that calls on a wide assortment of tourist attractions. This is very different from Malaysia with promotes ‘Truly Asia,’ India with its ‘Incredible India,’ and Singapore with its ‘Uniquely Singapore.’ This is the reason Indonesian tourism is being left behind.”峇里島旅遊局說「峇里文明讓這座島嶼

與眾不同。」然而談及峇里島旅遊業的現

狀，薩利姆博士用花生醬拌蔬果拼盤這道

美食做個比方，他說：「現在峇里島的旅

遊業已經成為『大

雜燴』，景

點繁多，眼

花繚亂，這

與馬來西亞


Tourism 41

Tourism

BaLiBaLance

AT July.indb 41 7/2/2010 3:06:59 PM

所宣揚的『亞洲真本色』,印度倡導的「不

可思議的印度」,還有新加坡打造的『獨一

無二的新加坡』都大相徑庭。印尼的旅遊

業之所以落於人後，原因就在於此。」

Dr. Salim said he hoped Bali’s tourism would focus on quality, spending, and length of stay – rather than merely pursuing quantity: “We do not need to pursue tourists on the basis of quantity – because quantity without quality will result in a loss of concern for the environment. Make religion, culture, and nature as the identity or character of Bali tourism. Bali will obtain quality tourists through staying faithful to the concept of ‘Tri Hita Karana.’”薩利姆博士說他希望峇里島的旅遊業注重

質素,消費，還有停留時間，而不要只盯著

數量：「我們沒必要過分追求遊客人數，

因為『有量無質』的結果必然是對環境的忽

視。要把宗教,文化和自然作為峇里島旅遊

的特色或象徵。惟有恪守『三界和諧』的信

念，峇里島才能引來高質素的遊客。」

The central theme of Bali’s civilization is that life should always be related to the tripartite model of “Tri Hita Karana” – a spiritual relationship between God, humans, and their natural environment. 峇里文明的中心思想是生命中貫穿「三

界和諧」的觀念，即神,人與自然三方和

諧共處。

Indonesia’s former Minister of Culture and Tourism, I Gede Ardika, supported Dr. Salim’s speech by calling for adherence to Tri Hita Karana and the need to consolidate religion, culture, and nature as the benchmarks in developing the island’s tourism.印尼前任文化和旅遊部長阿迪卡贊同薩

利姆博士的觀點，他呼籲人們恪守「三界

和諧」，把宗教,文化和自然結合在一起，

作為開發峇里島旅遊業的方針。

Ardika said: “The main asset of Bali tourism is the culture of Bali itself. Because of this, let us all work together to protect and preserve that which draws tourists to Bali.”阿迪卡說：「峇里島旅遊業的資本就是

峇里本身的文化。所以，讓我們一起保護

和保存峇里島賴以吸引遊客之處。」

Tourism leaders in Bali have tried to encourage this approach by arranging events such as the Tri Hita Karana Tourism Awards, for businesses who strive to promote balance and harmony in the relationship between God, society and nature.峇里島旅遊業的領導者們舉辦了各類活動

來宣揚這些理念，像「三界和諧旅遊獎」便

是一例。該獎項旨在表彰為促進神,社會和自

然三界和諧共處作出貢獻的企業。

The Balinese Food Festival in 2009 celebrated traditional drinks and food, which had to be specially prepared according to health and presentation standards. Each participant had to prepare a typical Balinese menu, with a customized decoration as the theme. Wayan Siana, Chef at the Four Seasons

Hotel in Jimbaran, said: “With the theme of Tri Hita Karana, we try a unique way. We choose the old style of food, digging into the culinary history of our ancestors to bring it to life once again.”峇里美食節融匯了各色傳統美食

佳餚，營養健康，色香味俱佳。參

賽者需做出地道的峇里菜餚，並要

精心點綴以突出主題。金芭蘭四季

酒店的廚師夏納說：「我們試圖以


Tourism42

Indonesia’s former Minister of Culture and Tourism, I Gede Ardika, supported Dr. Salim’s speech by calling for adherence to Tri Hita Karana and the need to consolidate religion, culture, and nature as the benchmarks in developing the island’s tourism.

別具一格的方式，展現『三界和諧』的主

題。我們選擇古老的菜餚，並從祖先的烹製

技藝中汲取靈感，令它重煥生機。」

Bali’s tourism chiefs also have more reason to celebrate following the UN’s recent selection of their island as the site for a new green tourism project. The United Nations World Tourism Organization has chosen Bali for a pilot project to develop environmentally friendly tourism. 最近峇里島又迎來喜訊，它被聯合國選

為一個新型綠色旅遊項目的基地。聯合國

世界旅遊組織選中峇里島來實施一個旅遊

環保開發試點項目。

Geoffrey Lipman, the UNWTO assistant secretary general, said Bali was chosen because of its local wisdom regarding the balance between mankind, nature and spirituality. The question now, according to Lipman, was how to apply this wisdom to meet actual challenges – such as climate change – that could damage the environment. Although Bali’s natural environment was relatively well preserved thanks to the intimate relationship between its people and nature, it was still at risk, especially without proper planning, he said. Lipman confirmed his agency would work to help Bali in meeting these challenges: initially, the UNWTO would analyze the island’s problems and needs, including such issues as alternative energy sources and natural conservation. It would also try to help Bali secure financial

AT July.indb 42 7/2/2010 3:07:03 PM

Bali’s tourism: improved aviation safety standards recently enabled the EU to lift its two-year ban on selected Indonesian carriers, including Garuda Indonesia; new luxury hotel developments such as St. Regis and the Banyan Tree will reinforce Bali’s positioning as a destination favored by affluent travelers; and the country’s political stability under a strong government is conducive to the continuation of sustainable infrastructure developments – which should help to preserve a healthy, green and prosperous balance for Bali’s tourism.他們還列舉了一些有利於峇里島旅遊業持

續發展的因素：隨著近期航空安全水準的提

升，歐盟解除了對於嘉魯達航空等若干印尼

航空公司為期兩年的禁令；包括瑞吉酒店,

悅榕酒店在內的新豪華酒店相繼開發，鞏固

了峇里島在富裕遊客心目中的地位；國家在

強有力的政府領導下政局穩定，確保基礎建

設持續進行。凡此種種，皆有利於峇里島旅

遊業的健康,環保,繁榮發展。|AT|

support from international donors, such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. 世界旅遊組織副秘書長李普曼表示，之

所以選擇峇里島，是因為它追求神,人與自

然和諧共處的傳統智慧。李普曼說，當前

的問題是如何發揮這智慧來應對現實的挑

戰，比如氣候變化，這些挑戰對環境構成

威脅。他指出，得益於當地人與自然之間

的親密關係，峇里島的自然環境保持得比

較好，但是對於風險，尤其是規劃不善的

風險，決不能掉以輕心。李普曼說他所在

的組織將會幫助峇里島應對這些挑戰：首

先，世界旅遊組織將分析島上的問題和需

求，比如替代能源和自然保護。它還會嘗

試幫助峇里島從國際上如世界銀行,亞洲開

發銀行獲得資金援助。

Lipman said it was necessary to implement the green tourism concept as part of a green economy: “The concept encompasses reduction of carbon dioxide production, environmentally friendly investment, the use of alternative energy, preservation of biodiversity and other issues.” 李普曼說把綠色旅遊理念作為綠色經濟

的一部份加以推廣很有必要：「這個理念

涵蓋了二氧化碳減排,環保投資,使用替代

能源,保護生態多樣性等方方面面。」

Bali Governor I Made Mangku Pastika expressed his hope that the nomination would strengthen the island’s reputation as an environmentally friendly tourist destination. He hoped tourists who visited Bali would be those who appreciated the preservation of the natural environment and culture. Pastika

said the nomination challenged all Balinese people to reconsider nature and its preservation.峇里省省長帕斯迪卡希望這次入選可以

提升峇里島作為綠色旅遊勝地的知名度，

並希望前來峇里島觀光的遊客能理解當地

保護自然環境和文化的一片苦心。帕斯迪

卡說，這次入選引發了全體峇里人民對於

自然和自然保護的反思。

And Bali’s tourism leaders can also take heart from the latest 2009 figures, which record the highest year-on-year increases for tourists coming from China, France, and Australia – of about 55 percent, 40 percent and 39 percent respectively. 2009年的統計數據令峇里島旅遊業界鼓

舞，來自中國,法國和澳洲的遊客人數年比

增幅創歷史紀錄，分別達到55%,40%和39%。

With a strong domestic demand, loyal repeat visitors from Japan, Europe and Australia – and potential new markets such as China, India, and Russia – analysts at Jones Lang LaSalle in Indonesia say the Bali tourism industry is expected to outperform other markets globally. 因為有旺盛的內需，有日本,歐洲和澳

洲的回頭客，還有中國,印度和俄羅斯等

新興市場，仲量聯行駐印尼的分析師認

為，峇里島的旅遊產業可望領跑全球。

They also highlight additional factors contributing to the continued growth of


Tourism 43

And Bali’s tourism leaders can also take heart from the latest 2009 figures, which record the highest year-on-year increases for tourists coming from China, France, and Australia -- of about 55 percent, 40 percent and 39 percent respectively.

AT July.indb 43 7/2/2010 3:07:08 PM

JULY 2010

44 Economy


singaPore is Poised to beCome one of the world’s leading financial centres, as London and New York lose status and see business ebb away as a result of the global financial crisis, according to one of the world’s leading investors.

一位投資大師告訴我，隨著倫敦和紐約在環球金融危機中走向沒落，新加坡註定要成為國際上首屈一指的金融中心。

Jim Rogers, chairman and chief executive of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, and author of best-selling investment books A Bull in China, Hot Commodities and Investment Biker, made the claim in an interview with Asian Tigers. He said the centre of financial power is shifting inexorably eastwards.

這番話出自吉姆•羅傑斯之口，他是在接受亞洲虎雜誌專訪時提出這個觀點。羅傑斯是新加坡Rogers Holdings總裁兼首席執行官，曾寫過《A Bull in China》，《Hot Commodities》和《Investment Biker》等暢銷書籍。他說金融力量的中心正勢不可擋

地移向東方。Rogers said: “The game is up for

the City of London. London has been particularly error-prone in the derivatives market. I cannot see it making a quick recovery.” He said New York will decline but at a slower pace. More recently, the $50bn fraud at New York-based Bernard L Madoff Investment Securities has highlighted serious regulatory failures in the US.

羅傑斯表示：「倫敦已是昨日黃花，它在衍生產品市場上犯了大錯，我看恐怕一時難復元氣。」他說紐約也將走下坡路，只不過沒有那麼快。最近曝光的紐約伯納德•L•麥道夫投資證券公司500億美元詐騙案，凸顯出美國監管體系的嚴重漏洞。

Rogers said the current financial crisis is a tipping point, as western centres lose out to “less corrupted, less corroded” economies and financial centres in the east. 羅傑斯說當前這場金融危機是個轉折點，東西方的經濟體和金融中心兩相比較，「不那麼腐化墮落」的東方壓倒了西方。

Rogers said Asia’s position has been

further strengthened because the continent is home to the world’s six leading creditor nations: China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Saudi Arabia. “The money is in Asia now. They’ve been saving,” he said. “The Americans save less than 2% of their earnings in America. In China they save over 35% and throughout Asia they save and invest massive sums of money.”

羅傑斯說亞洲的地位得到進一步增強，因為這塊大陸上有世界六大債權國：中國，日本，韓國，台灣，新加坡和沙特阿拉伯。「現在的錢都在亞洲，它們被積攢起來，」他說：「美國人只把收入的不到2%儲蓄起來，中國人卻能存下35%，整個亞洲

國際金融中心的有力競爭者

A Powerful Competitor for World’s Leading Financial Centre

Singapore 新加坡

作者/by Ian Fraser

Jim Rogers

AT July.indb 44 7/2/2010 3:07:10 PM


Economy 45

的儲蓄和投資都十分可觀。」Rogers, a respected commodities

investor who founded the Quantum fund with George Soros in 1970, moved with his wife and two daughters from New York to Singapore in December 2007 as a result of his enthusiasm for the investment opportunities in China.

羅傑斯是舉世公認的商品投資大師，1970年與佐治•索羅斯共創「量子基金」。2007年，他攜妻子及兩個女兒由紐約移居新加坡，因為他被中國的投資機遇深深吸引。

He said Singapore and Hong Kong are the two strongest candidates to become Asia’s dominant financial centre. However he believes Singapore has the edge. He said Hong Kong is handicapped because its giant neighbour China has a blocked currency. He also believes Singapore benefits enormously from superior regulation. Because the country’s top civil servants and regulators are paid salaries of over $1m a year, Rogers said they are “incorruptible”.

他說亞洲的金融中心首推新加坡和香港，而他覺得新加坡更有優勢。在他看來，妨礙香港的是它龐大的近鄰中國實行貨幣管制。他認為新加坡卓越的監管體系使之獲益匪淺。因為國家高層公務員和監管人員每年都能領到100多萬美元的薪水，羅傑斯說他們「難以被收買」。

The Monetary Authority of Singapore, founded in 1971, serves as both regulator and central bank in Singapore, and overhauled its approach to banking supervision following the Barings collapse of 1995-95. Subsequent initiatives including opening the banking system to foreign ownership, a phase of banking consolidation and merging and restructuring its securities and futures exchanges.

1971年成立的新加坡金融管理局，身兼監管機關和中央銀行兩個角色。1995年巴林銀行的轟然倒塌，促使金管局徹底修改了銀行監管策略，後來的舉措包括向外資開放銀行系統，階段性銀行業整合，以及合併重組證券及期貨交易所。

Rogers added that even though Seoul has aspirations to become a leading Asian financial centre, it is hampered by what he describes as Byzantine regulations and the lack of free flows of capital in and out of Korea. Even though Tokyo has the capacity to be the leading Asian financial centre, Rogers said it has limited

Singapore

New York

London

AT July.indb 45 7/2/2010 3:07:19 PM


Economy46

chance of achieving this, due to Japan’s “reluctance to fully open up to the outside world” and very low interest rate policies.

羅傑斯指，雖然首爾亦有打造亞洲金融中心的壯志，無奈卻受阻於「拜佔庭式錯綜複雜」（羅傑斯語）的監管制度，以及韓國對資本自由出入的限制。他又說，東京有成為亞洲金融中心的實力，可是希望不大，因為日本「遲遲不願完全向外面的世界開放」，並且實行超低利率的政策。

He does not believe challengers in the Gulf, such as Dubai Financial Center, currently pose a significant threat, partly due to geopolitical instability in the Middle East.

他認為海灣地區的挑戰者，比如杜拜金融中心，現在還不足為懼，一個原因是中東的地緣政治不穩定。

Rogers’ made the predictions as a report produced for the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, confirmed that London risks losing its crown as the world’s leading financial centre. “London faces a real and serious threat from competitor cities that have developed aggressive strategies to steal business away,” said the report, prepared by a group of London-based financial bosses led by Bob Wigley, chairman of Merrill Lynch in Europe, Middle East and Africa.

羅傑斯作這些預測之際，一份報告被呈到倫敦市長鮑里斯•約翰遜的案頭。報告稱倫敦有失去世界金融中心桂冠的危險。這份報告的作者皆是倫敦金融界的顯赫人物，為首者是鮑勃•威格利——美林公司歐洲，中東和非洲業務總裁。報告中提到：「倫敦面臨著競爭城市真切而嚴重的威脅，這些城市制定了雄心勃勃的策略要一爭高下。」

The report, commissioned by the Greater London Authority confirmed

that Singapore is a favourite to steal London’s crown.

這份由大倫敦市政府委託編撰的報告指出，新加坡是與倫敦爭奪寶座的有力對手。

It said: “Singapore’s concerted strategy to turn its local financial centre into a regionally significant player has seen it attracting over 1,000 domestic and international financial institutions to become a regional leader and beacon for financial trading.” The report added that Singapore’s strongest sector is foreign exchange where it has a 6% share of global turnover compared to 34% in the UK and 17% in the US.

報告稱：「新加坡的一致策略是從地方性

的金融中心成為具有重要區域影響力的競爭者，其已吸引逾千家國內外金融機構，有望成為本地區金融貿易的領導者和燈塔。」報告並指，新加坡實力最強的部門是外匯交易，約佔世界總量的6%，而英國和美國則分別為34%和17%。

Rogers said that the responses of the governments of George W Bush and Gordon Brown to the banking crisis had been deeply flawed. By making generous bail-outs to failed institutions, he said they have condemned their economies to 10 to 15 years of stagnation. He argues that more of the troubled western banks should have been allowed to go bust. “What has happened is horrible economics and horrible morality,” said Rogers.

羅傑斯說布殊政府和白高敦政府對銀行業危機的應對之策頗受詬病。因為對泥足深陷的金融機構慷慨解囊，兩國經濟將會陷入長達10-15年的停滯。他認為應該讓更多陷入危機的西方銀行破產倒閉。「留下的只是千瘡百孔的經濟，還有可怕的道德敗壞，」羅傑斯說道。

Rogers also reiterated his view that China will be the next superpower. “The 21st century is the century of China,” he said. “However, there will be setbacks along the way.”

羅傑斯重申他認為中國將是下一個超級強國的觀點。「21世紀是中國世紀，」他說：「不過這條路途註定不會平坦。」|AT|

People’s Square, Shanghai, China

Tokyo, Japan

AT July.indb 46 7/2/2010 3:07:22 PM


Economy 47

doi moi, vietnamese forrenovation, is also the name of the political and economic reforms initiated in 1986 resulting in a Socialist oriented market economy that combines elements of central planning with private innovation. In that time Vietnam’s economy has been one of the fastest growing economies in the world with GDP growth of 6.23 percent in 2008 and 3.9 percent in the first half of 2009.

越南的政治經濟改革計劃始於1986年，

逐步形成以社會主義為主導的市場經濟，

將中央計劃經濟與私營經濟的創新相結

合。此後，越南一躍成為全球增長最快

的經濟體之一，2008年 GDP 增長達到

6.23，2009年上半年 GDP 增長達3.9％。

Prior to Doi Moi Vietnam’s economy was centrally planned, primarily

agricultural and was characterized by high unemployment and poverty levels as economic growth was severely hampered by the aftermath of the Vietnam War. Doi Moi brought about an increase in the number of private businesses and increased foreign investment through the use of incentives resulting in high economic growth and a significant decrease in poverty from approximately 50 percent of the population in the early 1990s to 29 percent of the population in 2005. Change has been rapid as Vietnam signed a Bilateral Trade Agreement with the United States in 2000 and finally joined the World Trade Organization in 2006 after more than 8 years of negotiation.在改革之前，越南執行中央計劃的經濟

體制，以農業為主，受越戰的消極影響，

經濟發展舉步維艱，失業率和貧困人口居

高不下。實行改革後，透過鼓勵投資的

計劃，越南的私營企業和外商投資激增，

經濟保持較高增長率，貧困人口亦大幅下

降，由90年代初期約50％的貧困人口下降

為2005年的約29％。2000年與美國簽署

《雙邊貿易協定》後，越南的經濟發展日新

月異，歷經8年談判後，終於在2006年加入

世界貿易組織。

Another example of Vietnam’s increasing openness to market forces was the establishment of a public securities trading system. Shares were first traded in the Ho Chi Minh City Securities Centre on July 28, 2000. On the first day of trading only two companies traded and the value turnover was slightly more than $5,000. Only two more companies were able to list within the first week and trading was limited to alternate

革新進行時

Renovation作者/by Alan Aguas

Under Way

AT July.indb 47 7/2/2010 3:07:31 PM


Economy48

weekdays due to the lack of trading volume. Strict trading bands of 2 percent were instituted in an effort to curb speculation. 越南成功確立公共證券交易體制，成

為越南不斷提高市場開放度的又一例

證。2000年7月28日，胡志明市證券交易中

心首次啟動證券交易。在第一個交易日，

僅有兩家公司的股票參與交易，成交額僅

約5,000美元。第一週內，僅有兩家新公司

上市，由於交易量不足，不得不採用隔日

輪流交易的方式。為控制投機行為，交易

區被嚴格限制在2％以內。

Despite this inauspicious start, the Ho Chi Minh City Securities Centre thrived and it was formally converted to the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HoSE) in July 2007. A secondary market was established in Hanoi known as the Hanoi Securities Trading Centre (HASTC) which regulates over the counter transactions and also has lower listing requirements than the HoSE. The HoSE was highly volatile as evidenced by its being one of the best performing markets in 2007 and one of the worst performing markets in 2008. The volatility has continued in 2009 with the VN Index, comprising all stocks listed on the HoSE, dropping to a four year low in February before more than doubling to close at 571.01 as of September 18. As of the end of August, the VN Index outperformed nearly all global indices except for the

Bolsa de Valores de Lima, the Colombo Stock Exchange, the Indonesia Stock Exchange, the Istanbul Stock Exchange and the Russian Trading System. 儘管起步艱難，胡志明市證券交易中

心不斷發展壯大，於2007年7月正式轉變

為胡志明市證券交易所（HoSE），還在

河內建立二級市場，名為河內證券交易

中心（HASTC），監管場外交易，較之胡志

明市證交所，上市門檻較低。胡志明市證

交所股價波動較大，2007年成為業績最佳

的證券市場之一，2008年則成為業績最差

的證券市場之一。2009年，越南股票市場

繼續劇烈波動，涵蓋胡志明市證交所所

有上市股票的越南股指於2月跌至4年來

的最低水平，而9月18日卻增長近兩倍，

收盤時達571.01點。8月底，越南股指的

表現幾乎超越全球所有股指，不包括秘

魯利馬股指，科倫坡股指，印尼股指，

伊斯坦布爾股指和俄羅斯股指。

Foreign direct investment in Vietnam has continued to grow at a rapid pace. According to the Foreign Investment Agency (FIA) foreign investors pledged $64 billion in foreign direct investment in 2008 as compared to $20.3 billion in 2007. This investment is directly responsible for the employment of 1.4 million people. Foreign ownership restrictions have

also been eased as foreigners can now own up to 49 percent of listed companies compared to 20 percent in 2000. This has had the obvious effect of stimulating the economy despite the global economic slowdown.越南的外商直接投資持續快速增長。

越南外商投資管理局（FIA）的統計資料

顯示，2008年越南吸引外商直接投資高達

640億美元，2007年為203億美元。此類投

資直接解決越南140萬人口的就業。越南對

外商持股的比例亦放寬限制，外籍人士現

最高可持有上市公司49％的股權，而2000

年該比例僅為20％。在全球經濟低迷的背

景下，此項舉措對刺激經濟作用明顯。

Vietnam’s export laden economy leaves it more sensitive to fluctuations in the global economy. In 2008 Vietnam posted a record deficit of $17.5 billion causing investors to be concerned about the sustainability of the economy. The record trade deficit also continued to put pressure on the Vietnamese dong. The trade deficit for the first eight months of 2009 narrowed to $5.1 billion, down 67 percent year on year with exports falling

With its export rich economyof coffee, crude oil, garments, rice and seafood, Vietnam is poised to reap the benefits of the global economic recovery

AT July.indb 48 7/2/2010 3:07:35 PM


Economy 49

14 percent year on year compared to imports which dropped 28 percent year on year. With its export rich economy of coffee, crude oil, garments, rice and seafood, Vietnam is poised to reap the benefits of the global economic recovery that many analysts and economists are now expecting.越南的出口導向型經濟導致本國經濟對全

球經濟的波動更為敏感。2008年，越南公佈

175億美元的貿易赤字，導致投資人對越南

經濟的可持續發展憂心忡忡。該創下歷史記

錄的貿易赤字亦對越南盾帶來壓力。2009年

前8個月，越南貿易赤字下降至51億美元，

較之去年同期下降67％，出口較之去年下降

14％，進口較之去年下降28％。越南主要向

發達國家出口咖啡，原油，服裝，大米和海

產品，諸多分析人士和經濟學家預計，越南

將從全球經濟復甦中獲益。

However challenges to growth remain. A recent report from Morgan Stanley remarked that the primary driver for economic growth in Vietnam should shift from policy to exports due to inflation and trade deficit concerns. Growth in the first eight months of the year was largely attributed to economic policy that encouraged the expansion of credit. Retail investors complain that large institutional investors dominate the HoSE and that there is a lack of financial analysis on listed issues. From a valuation standpoint, Credit Suisse Group AG advised investors to sell Vietnam’s equities as valuations were excessive. The price-to-earnings ratio of 22.18 and the price-to-book ratio of 2.88 are both among the highest in Asia.

不過，增長的挑戰仍然存在。摩根士丹

利近期發佈的報告認為，在通貨膨脹和貿

易赤字的壓力下，越南經濟增長的主要推

動力應由政策轉向出口。越南在今年前8

個月的經濟增長主要歸功於鼓勵擴大信貸

的經濟政策。中小投資人對大型機構投資

人主導胡志明市證交所的現狀抱怨重重，

且缺乏對上市事宜的金融分析。從價值

的角度出發，瑞信集團（Credit Suisse

Group AG）認為當前股票價值過高，建議

投資人賣出越南市場的股權。目前越南股

市市盈率為22.18，市淨率為2.88，兩項指

標均為亞洲地區的最高值。

Government forecasts paint a rosy picture of an improving, vibrant economy. August core inflation of 2 percent year on year was the lowest level in 7 years coming off of a high base. At the same time, the Ministry of Planning and Investment still forecasts Vietnam’s economy to grow by 5.5% this year. The HoSE announced on September 17 that it was joining the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Bulletin Board, a

project that seeks to attract investors to ASEAN equities. This project is backed by the Asian Development Bank and ASEAN and will include 30 stocks each from Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. This should further increase trading volumes and make investing in ASEAN equities more attractive to global investors. Change and renovation are under way for Vietnam. From one of the more restrictive economies in the world, Vietnam has emerged as a more open economy ready to meet the challenges of the modern economic environment.越南政府對未來充滿信心，承諾實現經濟

持續發展。8月份通脹率較之去年增加2％，

為7年來的最低水平。與此同時，越南規劃

與投資部預計，越南經濟今年將實現5.5％

的增長。胡志明市證交所於9月17日宣佈，

將加入東盟（ASEAN）公告板項目，該項目

旨在吸引投資人投資東盟國家股票市場。亞

洲開發銀行和東盟為該項目提供支持，將涵

蓋越南，新加坡，印尼，馬來西亞，泰國和

菲律賓的30支股票。加入該項目有助於進一

步提高交易量，使投資東盟股票市場對全球

投資人更具吸引力。越南的改革正處於進行

時。越南一改原本封閉落後的面貌，已發展

成更為開放的經濟體，隨時準備應對現代經

濟環境的挑戰。|AT|

Vietnam has emerged as a more open economy ready to meet the challenges of the modern economic environment

Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange

AT July.indb 49 7/2/2010 3:07:37 PM

JULY 2010

50 Economy


the australian Prime minister Kevin Rudd speaks fluent Mandarin. He has a Chinese-Australian son-in-law. He was described in 2007 by The Sydney Morning Herald newspaper as a “living bridge to China as it emerges as the second superpower”.

澳洲總理陸克文能講一口流利的中文，膝

下有一中澳混血的女婿。2007年，他曾被《悉尼晨報》形容為「連接中國這個崛起中的第二超級大國的活橋樑」。

Australia has very strong trading ties with China, especially in the area of resources, and Australia’s pain during the global financial crisis has been immeasurably softened by the early recovery of the Chinese economy.

High Stakes in the IRON ORE BUSINESS

澳洲與中國有十分緊密的貿易聯繫，尤其是在資源領域，所以中國經濟的提早復甦極大地緩解了澳洲在世界金融危機中的困境。

Since Kevin Rudd became Prime Minister in December 2007, it has been a such sweet and harmonious relationship that it was easy to imagine large amounts of affection and largesse leaving Beijing bound for Canberra, where they coalesce into a pink cloud of special friendship.

自從2007年12月陸克文就任澳洲總理以來，堪培拉與北京度過了一段甜美的蜜月期，不難想像，在惺惺相惜和不拘小節的心態下，雙方之間培養出一種特殊的友誼。

Anybody who did imagine that has just had a rude awakening. The cloud never

existed, friendship has been put on ice, and Australia has been firmly put in its place.

然而事情的發展總是出其不意。現在，蜜月期走到盡頭，友誼降至冰點，中澳關係又退回原地。

The subject of discontent is Stern Hu, by all reports a mild-mannered man, a native of Tianjin province, Australian citizen since 1994 and a senior executive with Australian mining giant Rio Tinto since 1996.

讓雙方撕破臉的導火索是胡士泰。綜合各方報道來看，此人原籍中國天津，1994

作者/ by Chris Champion

豪賭鐵礦石

Stern Hu of Rio Tinto

AT July.indb 50 7/2/2010 3:07:41 PM


Economy 51

年加入澳洲國籍，1996年出任礦業巨頭力拓公司高管。據說他性情溫和，平易近人。

As of July 5, 2009, he is also a spy, according to the Chinese authorities who arrested him. The arrest has caused shock, outrage, perplexity and a lot of finger-wagging.

2009年7月5日，胡因涉嫌間諜罪被中國

當局逮捕。此事可謂一石激起千層浪，一時間各界反應有震驚，有憤慨，有困惑也有鋪天蓋地的口誅筆伐。

There are three ways to look at this case: from the points of view of the Chinese government, the Australian government, and public opinion.

此案可從中國政府，澳洲政府和公眾三個角度觀之。

The Chinese government’s position is unclear. Initially, they said Mr Hu had been bribing Chinese officials to reveal secret trade information, and they had all the evidence necessary to bring charges of espionage. As of July 20, however, according to statements by Australian Foreign Minister Stephen Smith, the charges are “likely” to be downgraded to commercial crimes. As of July 21, 16 days after he was detained, Mr Hu had yet to be charged with any offence.

中國政府態度曖昧。先是說胡賄賂中國官員騙取商業機密，當局已掌握控告胡犯間諜罪的確鑿證據。但是到了7月20日，澳洲外長史密斯又講話說，有關指控「可能」被減輕到商業犯罪。截至7月21日，胡已被押16天，但仍未被控以任何罪名。

The Australian government’s position is unenviable. For many days after

the news of Mr Hu’s detention broke, Kevin Rudd said he was making enquiries through appropriate channels and there was little more he could do. Meanwhile the Australian Opposition was saying there was a lot more Kevin Rudd could do, such as picking up a telephone and asking Beijing, in Mandarin if he pleased, what the hell was going on.

澳洲政府是進退兩難。胡士泰案發後多日，陸克文說他已透過適當管道過問此事，著實無計可施，但澳洲反對黨卻說陸克文根本不必畏手畏腳，不如操起電話質問北京究竟想幹什麼——若是願意的話，乾脆在電話裏講中文好了。Chinalco’s factories in China

This photo and below, Rio Tinto’s mining in Kenstrel mines, Central Queensland, Australia

Ex-Prime Minister Kevin Rudd

THIS PHOTOGRAPH & ABOVE © RIO TINTO

There are three ways to look at

this case: from the points of view of the

Chinese government, the Australian government,

and public opinion

AT July.indb 51 7/2/2010 3:07:43 PM


Economy52

Professor Jiang Wenran

When Mr Rudd finally stood up and publicly stated an Australian sense of disquiet, and urged China to clarify the situation as quickly as possible, Beijing fired back with a face-slapping mind your own business.

當陸克文終於站出來公開表達澳洲的不滿並敦促中國儘快澄清事件時，換來的卻是北京不留情面的強硬回應。

The third view is the cacophony of public opinion, some it informed, some of it opportunistic mud-slinging. But it is amongst these opinions, away from the diplomacy of politicians, that objective perspectives are to be found, especially amongst comments linking the arrest of Hu Stern to two recent setbacks for China: the recent decision by Rio Tinto to walk away from a closer tie-up with China’s state-owned Chinalco, and difficulties in the current round of iron ore price negotiations with Rio Tinto, the world’s largest exporter of iron ore. The leader of the Rio Tinto team at those negotiations was Stern Hu.

公眾的觀點是眾說紛紜，這當中不乏一些有見地的分析，亦有別有用心之人的抹黑言論。縱觀各家之言，拋開政治外交的因素不論，可以看出幾絲端倪，尤其是那些把胡士泰被捕與近來中國遭受的兩個挫折聯繫在一起的評論。挫折之一是近期力拓決定拒絕與中國國企中鋁集團結盟；二是當前與力拓的鐵礦石價格談判困難重重。力拓是全球頭號鐵礦石出口商，而率領力拓團隊參加談判的人正是胡士泰。

In other words, is China punishing Rio Tinto for the embarrassment of the Chinalco snub? And (or) is it trying a high-stakes bluff to try to win an advantage in the iron ore price negotiations?

那麼，中國是不是在為中鋁受到的怠慢而懲罰力拓？以及（或者）是不是想押一筆駭人的賭注，企圖贏得鐵礦石價格談判的先機？

The stakes are extraordinarily high. Iron ore made up US$14.5 billion of Australia’s total US$26 billion worth of trade exports to China last year. China, on the other hand, has poor iron ore resources, meaning it has to rely on hundreds of millions of tonnes of imports

a year to feed its massive steel-making demand.

這筆賭注不可謂不高。去年澳洲對華出口總額有260億美元，其中鐵礦石就佔145億美元。中國的鐵礦石資源稀缺，每年都需要進口大量鐵礦石來滿足龐大的鋼鐵產業需求。

Professor Jiang Wenran, of Canada’s University of

Alberta, an expert on China’s minerals and energy extraction policies, and a personal friend of Stern Hu, says normal business practices in China make it easy, indeed almost necessary, for foreign business people to stray near the line of what might be considered industrial espionage.

作為胡士泰的好友，加拿大阿爾伯塔大學教授，中國礦產和能源政策專家姜聞然表示，中國的商業規矩使外國商人很容易甚至必然迷失在所謂的工業間諜的邊緣。

“The line is quite blurred sometimes between what can be classified as legitimate open commercial information and what are state secrets,” he said, adding that the line could easily be

blurred further by authorities wanting to make a case one way or the other.

他說：「從合法的公開商業信息到國家機密，這條界限有時十分模糊。」他又稱，當局翻手為雲覆手為雨，所以也會在這個界限上做文章。

But Professor Jiang says Mr Hu has also been caught up in bigger issues — local officials have allegedly been creaming off profits for years by acting as middle men in iron ore deals. “Stern Hu is one piece of the puzzle in a bigger picture,” he said.

不過，姜教授認為胡案背後有更大的黑幕——不少地方官員被指多年來以鐵礦石交易中間人的角色撈取好處，「胡士泰不過是冰山一角而已」。

Meanwhile, the Chinese are under increasing pressure as previous iron ore contracts are now lapsed and they are at the mercy of global spot markets until a new contract can be agreed on.

With spot prices rising, so are the stakes.

由於原先的鐵礦石合同已經屆滿，中國正面臨越來越大的壓力，在簽訂新的合同之前唯有聽憑全球現貨市場的擺佈。

現貨價格越高，賭注也就越大。|AT|

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Visit our Philip Stein boutiques at: 6750 Ayala Ave., The Podium Mall, SM City North Edsa

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AT July.indb 52 7/2/2010 3:07:52 PM

“Ever since I’ve been wearing this watch my stress

is mostly gone.”

www.PhilipStein.com

Visit our Philip Stein boutiques at: 6750 Ayala Ave., The Podium Mall, SM City North Edsa

Also available at all Lucerne, Chronos, Swiss Gear and Wrist_pod stores

AT July.indb 53 7/2/2010 3:07:53 PM

AT July.indb 54 7/2/2010 3:07:58 PM

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