CC NHN T NH HNG N NHU CU TN DNG CHNH THC TRONG TRIN KHAI NG DNG
TIN B K THUT: TRNG HP NNG H SN XUT LA NG THP Bi Vn Trnh 1 v Nguyn
Quc Nghi 2 TM TT Mc tiu ca nghin cu ny l xc nh cc nhn t nh hng n
nhu cu vay vn t cc t chc tn dng chnh thc ca nng h sn xut la trn a
bn tnh ng Thp. S liu s dng trong nghin cu ny c thu thp thng qua cuc
phng vn trc tip 375 nng h sn xut la trn a bn tnh. M hnh Binary
Logistic v phn tch hi qui tng quan a bin c s dng xc nh cc nhn t nh
hng n nhu cu tn dng chnh thc ca nng h. Kt qu nghin cu cho thy, lng
cu tn dng chnh thc ca nng h tng quan thun vi trnh hc vn ca ch h,
kinh nghim sn xut ca ch h, vic h c tham gia t chc on th a phng hay
khng, tng din tch t ca nng h. Ngc li, lng cu tn dng chnh thc ca nng
h c tng quan nghch vi vic h c vay vn khng chnh thc hay khng, vic
nng h c ng dng tin b k thut (TBKT) hay khng. 1. T VN NGHIN CU ng
Thp nm trong khu vc ng bng Sng Cu Long, t ai mu m bi ph sa do hai
con Sng Tin v Sng Hu cung cp hng nm, ng Thp c bit n nh mt va la ca
c nc. Do sn xut la go ng bng Sng Cu Long ni chung v ng Thp ni ring
c v tr c bit quan trng trong chin lc m bo an ninh lng thc quc gia,
thc y tng trng kinh t, gi n nh chnh tr. Trong 5 nm tr li y, khoa hc
cng ngh ng gp rt ln trong gi tr tng trng ca ngnh nng nghip. V vy,
ng Thp to nn nhng vng nng sn hng ha c th ng vng v cnh tranh c vi th
trng trong nc cng nh th trng nc ngoi, iu tt yu l phi tin n sn xut
cng ngh cao, trc mt l ng dng tin b k thut (DTBKT) vo sn xut. Tuy
nhin, TBKT mi n tay nng dn phi vt qua nhiu kh khn tr ngi, c bit l v
ngun vn. Chng ta u bit vn l yu t khi u cng l yu t mang tnh quyt nh
i vi qu trnh sn xut kinh doanh v ng dng tin b k thut, v th nng
nghip pht trin bn vng trong xu hng hi nhp, vic p ng nhu cu vn trong
trin khai DTBKT vo sn xut l nhim v quan trng. V th nghin cu ny xc
nh nhng nhn t nh hng n nhu cu tn dng chnh thc ca nng h sn xut la
tnh ng Thp nhm cung cp mt ngun thng tin quan trng cho cc t chc tn
dng chnh thc v c quan hu quan trong vn h tr tn dng cho nng h sn xut
la. 2. PHNG TIN V PHNG PHP NGHIN CU 2.1. Lc kho ti liu nghin cu Tnh
n nay c rt nhiu nghin cu v lnh vc tn dng ca nng h c cng b, do khun
kh c hn ca mt bi bo khng th lit k tt c cc nghin cu v lnh vc tn dng
ca nng h, v th tc gi ch nu mt s nghin cu c lin quan n ch ca bi1
2
Tin s, Gim c Nh Xut Bn i hc Cn Th Thc s, Ging vin Khoa Kinh t -
QTKD, Trng i hc Cn Th
1
vit. u tin, l nghin cu ca Izumida v Phm Bo Dng (2002) v Cc nhn t
nh hng n quyt nh i vay ca nng h trn th trng tn dng nng thn Vit Nam.
S dng m hnh Tobit, cc tc gi ch ra rng, din tch t v tng gi tr vt nui
ca nng h l hai nhn t chnh nh hng n quyt nh i vay v lng vn vay ca
nng h. Zeller (1994) tin hnh nghin cu v Cc yu t quyt nh n hn ch tn
dng nhng ngi cho vay khng chnh thc v nhng t chc cho vay chnh thc
Madagascar. Kt qu nghin cu ch ra rng, nhng t chc cho vay chnh thc
thu thp v s dng cc thng tin v kh nng tr n ca nhng ngi xin vay vn
tng t nh nhng ngi cho vay khng chnh thc. Nhng ngi cho vay khng chnh
thc v cc t chc tn dng chnh thc u da vo cc thng tin nh s giu c, s n
hin ti v thu nhp trong tng lai ca ngi xin vay ( lm c s quyt nh vic
cho vay). Trng ng Lc v Trn B Duy (2008) nghin cu Cc nhn t nh hng n
kh nng tip cn tn dng chnh thc ca nng h trn a bn tnh Kin Giang. Mc
tiu ca nghin cu ny l phn tch cc nhn t nh hng n kh nng tip cn tn dng
chnh thc ca h nng dn trn a bn tnh Kin Giang. S liu s dng trong
nghin cu c thu thp t mt cuc iu tra bng bng cu hi vi tng s nng h c
phng vn l 152. p dng m hnh Probit, kt qu phn tch cho thy, cc nhn t
c nh hng n kh nng tip cn tn dng ca nng h bao gm: Tui ca ch h, s
thnh vin trong gia nh, trnh hc vn ca ch h, din tch t ca h, kh nng i
vay t cc ngun khng chnh thc, thu nhp ca h v tng ti sn ca h. 2.2.
Phng php thu thp s liu S liu s dng cho nghin cu ny c thu thp t mt
cuc iu tra trc tip 375 nng h theo phng php chn mu phn tng kt hp vi
ngu nhin. Cuc iu tra c tin hnh trong khong thi gian t thng 9 nm
2009 n thng 02 nm 2010 vi i tng c phng vn l nhng nng h sn xut la c
nhu cu vay vn t cc t chc tn dng chnh thc (252 nng h) v nhng nng h
khng c nhu cu vay vn ca cc t chc tn dng chnh thc (123 nng h) ti cc
huyn Thanh Bnh (65 nng h), Hng Ng (99 nng h), Thp Mi (90 nng h) v
Chu Thnh (121 nng h) ca tnh ng Thp. 2.3. Phng php phn tch Nghin cu
ny s dng phn mm SPSS h tr trong vic phn tch s liu. M hnh Binary
Logistic c s dng xc nh cc nhn t nh hng n nhu cu vay vn ca nng h sn
xut la trn a bn tnh ng Thp. M hnh c phng trnh: log e [P(Y = 1) ] =
Bo + B1X1 + B2X2 + B3X3 + B4X4 + B5X5 + B6X6 P(Y = 0)
Trong : Y l bin nhu cu vay vn ca nng h v c o lng bng hai gi tr 1
v 0 (0 l khng c nhu cu vay vn, 1 l c nhu cu vay vn). Cc bin X1, X2,
X3, X4, X5, X6 l cc bin c lp (bin gii thch). Phng php phn tch hi
qui tng quan a bin c s dng nghin cu cc nhn t nh hng n lng cu tn dng
chnh thc ca nng h. Trong nghin cu ny, m hnh hi qui tng quan a bin c
thit lp nh sau: Y = 0 + 1 X1 + 2 X2+ 3 X 3 + 4 X 4 + 5 X 5 + 6 X 6
+ Trong : Y: bin ph thuc, lng cu tn dng chnh thc ca nng h (ng). Cc
bin X1, X2, X3, X4, X5, X6 l cc bin c lp (bin gii thch). 2
3. KT QU NGHIN CU V THO LUN 3.1. Tnh hnh vay vn ca cc nng h sn
xut la tnh ng Thp Vn l mt yu t quan trng quyt nh hiu qu sn xut v
thu nhp ca nng h. c nhiu nghin cu ni v s quan trng ca vn, chng hn
nh nghin cu ca Trng ng Lc v Trn B Duy (2008), nghin cu cho bit thc
t thiu vn u t l nguyn nhn dn n nng sut thp, ko theo thu nhp ca h
gia nh thp. Thu nhp thp dn n tit kim thp v iu ny li l nguyn nhn ca
s thiu ht vn u t v li dn n thu nhp thp. gii quyt tnh trng cn phi c
ngun vn t bn ngoi, do vn vay l mt ngun quan trng gip nng h gii quyt
nhng kh khn v ti chnh. Qua s liu kho st v tnh trng vay vn ca nng h
cho thy, trong s 375 nng h th c 63,6% nng h c vay vn chim t l gn gp
i s nng h khng vay vn. C nhiu nguyn nhn dn n nng h khng tip cn c
ngun tn dng, trong nguyn nhn chnh l do nng h cha vay vn c t cc t
chc tn dng do khng c ti sn th chp, cn nu i vay cc t chc cho vay nng
li th nng h phi chu mc li sut qu cao c th khng c tin ng li.
C DTBKT
Khng vay vn, 28.1
C vay vn, 71.9
Khng DTBKT
Khng vay vn, 44.7
C vay vn, 55.3
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Hnh 1. Nhu cu vay vn ca nng h sn xut la Qua kho st cho thy, t l
nng h sn xut la c DTBKT vay vn nhiu hn so vi nng h khng c DTBKT. i
vi nng h c DTBKT th s nng h vay vn chim n 71,9%, s nng h khng vay
vn chim 28,1%. Cn nng h khng DTBKT th s nng h vay vn chim 55,3%, s
nng h khng vay vn chim 44,7%. Qua cho ta thy, c s khc nhau v nhu cu
vay vn gia nng h c ng dng v khng c DTBKT, tuy nhin iu ny s c phn
tch chi tit hn trong phn sau. Bng 1: i tng c nng h sn xut la chn
vay vn Ni vay Vay Ngn hng Nng nghip & PTNT Vay ca hng vt t nng
nghip Vay Ngn hng chnh sch x hi Vay ngi quen Vay Ngn hng u t &
Pht trin Vay Ngn hng thng mi c phn Tng cng S quan st (nng h) 178
121 46 24 3 2 375 T l (%) 47,73 32,27 12,27 6,40 0,80 0,53 100,00
3
Ngun: S liu iu tra ca nhm nghin cu, 2009-2010 Kt qu phn tch cho
thy, phn ln cc nng h a bn kho st s dng ngun vn vay t t chc tn dng
chnh thc (cc ngn hng) chim khong 60%, ch c khong 40% nng h s dng
ngun vn vay phi chnh thc. iu ny cng d hiu v vn vay ngn hng l ngun
vn c chi ph thp, theo ngun thng tin phng vn th li sut cho vay ca cc
t chc tn dng chnh thc ch dao ng trong khong t 0,8% n 1,8%, trong
khi li sut bn ngoi ph bin mc 3% n 5%. Mt khc, phn ln nng h u c bng
khon nn c hi tip cn c ngun vn chnh thc t ngn hng l kh cao. Trong ,
a phn cc nng h thng vay vn ti 2 t chc tn dng chnh thc l Ngn hng Nng
nghip & PTNT (chim t l cao nht 47,73%) v Ngn hng Chnh sch X hi
(chim 12,27%). Hn na, ngoi Ngn hng Nng nghip & PTNT v Ngn hng
Chnh sch X hi, nng h cn vay vn ti Ngn hng u t & Pht trin v cc
ngn hng thng mi c phn (chim 1,33%). Khi vay ti cc ngn hng, nng h
thng phi c ti sn th chp, c bit l nh ca hay t ai. Cn i vi cc nng h
vn vay t ngun phi chnh thc thng th vay t cc ca hng bn vt t nng
nghip (chim 32,27%) di hnh thc mua thiu vt t hay tr gp, tr chm hoc
vay t hng xm, t bn b (chim 6,4%), iu ny c th c gii thch v a s cc
nng h c kho st l ngi bn x, h nh c lu nm a phng nn c ch cc c s vt t
nng nghip tn nhim cho mua hng tr tin sau khi thu hoch, tr gp... v
khi c vic g th h thng nh b con hay hng xm gip . 3.2. Cc nhn t nh
hng n kh nng tip cn tn dng chnh thc ca nng h sn xut la tnh ng Thp M
hnh Binary Logistic c p dng xc nh cc nhn t nh hng n nhu cu tn dng
chnh thc ca nng h sn xut la tnh ng Thp. Cn c vo cc cng trnh nghin
cu khoa hc cng b lin quan n nhu cu tn dng ca nng h, trong nghin cu
ny, tc gi s dng cc bin vi din gii nh sau: Bng 2: Din gii cc bin c
lp trong m hnh Binary Logistic Bin s Trnh hc vn ca ch h (X1) Kinh
nghim sn xut ca ch h (X2) Tham gia t chc x hi (X3) Din tch t thc t
(X4) ng dng tin b k thut (X5) Vay vn phi chnh thc (X6) Din gii Bng
0 nu ch h m ch; 1 nu tt nghip cp I; 2 nu tt nghip cp II; 3 nu tt
nghip cp III tr ln. S nm nng h tham gia sn xut la tnh n thi im
nghin cu. Bin gi, nhn gi tr 1 nu nng h c tham gia t chc x hi; nhn
gi tr 0 nu khng tham gia bt k t chc no. Tng din tch t (1.000 m2) m
h ang s dng. Bin gi, nhn gi tr 1 nu nng h ng dng tin b k thut vo sn
xut; gi tr 0 nu khng ng dng tin b k thut. Bin gi, nhn gi tr 1 tc l
nng h c vay vn phi chnh thc v gi tr 0 tc l nng h khng vay vn phi
chnh thc. S.E. 0,054 Wald 3,486 df 1 Sig. 0,062 Exp(B) 1,106 4
Bng 3: Kt qu phn tch hi quy bng m hnh Binary Logistic Nhn t X1 B
0,101
X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 Hng s
0,034 0,016 4,489 1 0,034 1,368 0,310 19,403 1 0,000 0,028 0,014
4,051 1 0,044 0,888 0,305 8,491 1 0,004 - 0,628 0,308 4,153 1 0,042
- 2,225 0,577 14,849 1 0,000 Ngun: S liu iu tra ca nhm nghin cu,
2009-2010
1,034 3,926 1,029 2,431 0,534 0,108
S dng phn mm SPSS chy m hnh Binary Logistic cho kt qu nh sau:
(1) Kim nh gi thuyt v ph hp tng qut c mc ngha quan st Sig. = 0,000
nn hon ton c th bc b gi thuyt H0 l h s hi quy ca cc bin c lp bng
khng. (2) Gi tr 2LL = 180,62 th hin mc ph hp ca m hnh tng th. (3)
Mc d bo trng ca ton b m hnh l 74,4%. Kim nh Wald v ngha ca cc h s
hi quy tng th ca bin X1 (trnh hc vn), X2 (kinh nghim sn xut), X3
(tham gia t chc x hi), X4 (tng din tch t), X5 (ng dng tin b k
thut), X6 (vay khng chnh thc) u c mc ngha sig. nh hn 0,1 nn hon ton
c th bc b gi thuyt: H0: X1
= 0,
X2
= 0,
X3
= 0,
X4
= 0,
X5
= 0,
X6
=0
Nh vy, cc h s hi quy tm c c ngha, v m hnh s dng l tt. T cc h s
hi quy ny, ta c phng trnh: loge [P(Y = 1) ] = -2,225 + 0,101X1 +
0,034X2 + 1,368X3 P(Y = 0)
+ 0,028X4 + 0,888X5 0,628X6 T phng trnh trn cho thy, trong 6 bin
a vo m hnh Binary Logistic th c 5 bin tc ng cng chiu vi bin ph thuc
v mt bin tc ng nghch chiu vi bin ph thuc. C th: Cc bin trnh hc vn,
kinh nghim sn xut, vic tham gia cc t chc x hi, din tch t thc t ca
h, ng dng tin b k thut vo sn xut s tng quan thun vi nhu cu tn dng
vay vn ca nng h i vi cc t chc tn dng chnh thc, hay ni cch khc l,
khi tng trnh hc vn ch h, kinh nghim sn xut la ca ch h, din tch t
thc t ca nng h, nng h c tham gia cc t chc x hi v nng h c ng dng tin
b k thut s lm tng nhu cu vay vn ca nng h i vi cc t chc tn dng chnh
thc. Ngc li, nhn t vay vn phi chnh thc tng quan nghch vi nhu cu vay
vn chnh thc ca nng h sn xut la, tc l khi nng h c vay t cc ngun tn
dng phi chnh thc th nhu cu tn dng chnh thc ca nng h b gim xung.
3.3. Cc nhn t nh hng n lng cu tn dng chnh thc ca nng h sn xut la
tnh ng Thp xc nh cc nhn t nh hng n lng cu tn dng chnh thc ca nng h
trn a bn tnh ng Thp, nghin cu ny s dng m hnh hi qui tng quan a bin
vi phng trnh nh sau: Y = 0 + 1 X1 + 2 X2+ 3 X 3 + 4 X 4 + 5 X 5 + 6
X 6 + Trong : Y: bin ph thuc, lng cu tn dng chnh thc ca nng h (ng).
Cc bin c lp bao gm: Bin X1 l bin trnh hc vn (lp); Bin X2 l bin kinh
nghim sn xut (nm); Bin X3 l bin tham gia t chc x hi hoc on th a
phng, y l bin gi v c o lng bng hai gi tr 1 v 0 (0 l khng tham gia,
1 l c tham gia); 5
Bin X4 l bin tng din tch t sn xut ca nng h (1000 m2); Bin X5 l
bin DTBKT, y l bin gi v c o lng bng hai gi tr 1 v 0 (0 l khng
DTBKT, 1 l c DTBKT); Bin X6 l bin vay vn phi chnh thc, y l bin gi v
c o lng bng hai gi tr 1 v 0 (0 l khng vay, 1 l c vay). Bng 4: Kt qu
phn tch cc yu t nh hng n lng vn vay t cc t chc tn dng chnh thc ca
nng h Mc Sai s ngha chun Constant 3.791.627 4.121.980 0,359 X1:
Trnh hc vn 962.188 346.012 0,006* X2: Kinh nghim sn xut 230.192
113.830 0,045** X3: Tham gia t chc on th 5.984.086 2.512.252
0,018** X4: Tng din tch t 679.973 108.302 0,000* X5: ng dng TBKT
-5.487.442 2.508.684 0,030** X6: Vay khng chnh thc -7.707.934
2.401.759 0,002* 2 2 R = 0,356; Adjusted R = 0,334; F = 15,945;
Sig. = 0,000 Bin gii thch H sGhi ch: *,**,***: c ngha thng k tng ng
mc 1%, 5%, 10%.
VIF
1,103 1,083 1,186 1,050 1,034 1,072
Da vo bng kt qu hi quy cho thy, h s R2 = 35,6% c ngha l 35,6% s
bin thin ca lng cu tn dng chnh thc ca nng h c gii thch bi cc yu t c
a vo trong m hnh. y, Sig.F = 0,000 nh hn rt nhiu so vi mc ngha = 5%
nn m hnh hi quy c ngha, tc l cc bin c lp c nh hng n bin ph thuc Y.
Bn cnh vi yu t phng i phng sai (VIF) ca cc bin trong m hnh nh hn
nhiu so vi 10 nn ta kt lun cc bin a vo m hnh khng c hin tng a cng
tuyn. T cc kt qu phn tch, ta c phng trnh hi quy c lng cc nhn t nh
hng n lng cu tn dng chnh thc ca nng h nh sau: Y = 3.791.627 +
962.188 X1 + 230.192 X2 + 5.984.086 X3 + 679.973 X4 - 5.487.442 X5
- 7.707.934 X6 Da vo phng trnh trn cho thy, trong 6 bin a vo m hnh
hi qui tng quan th c 4 bin tc ng cng chiu vi lng cu tn dng chnh thc
ca nng h v mt bin tc ng nghch chiu. C th, kt qu phn tch cho thy kh
nng tip cn tn dng chnh thc ca nng h ph thuc vo cc yu t nh: Lng cu
tn dng chnh thc nng h c tng quan thun vi trnh hc vn ca ch h, kinh
nghim sn xut ca ch h, vic h c tham gia t chc on th a phng, tng din
tch t ca nng h. Ngc li, lng cu tn dng chnh thc ca nng h c tng quan
nghch vi vic h c vay vn khng chnh thc, vic nng h c DTBKT. 4. KT LUN
V KIN NGH Thng qua vic ng dng m hnh Binary Logistic v m hnh hi qui
tng quan a bin, nghin cu ny cho thy kh nng tip cn tn dng chnh thc
ca nng h ph thuc vo cc yu t nh: trnh hc vn ca ch h (+), kinh nghim
sn xut ca ch h (+), vic h c tham gia t chc on th a phng (+), tng
din tch t ca nng h (+), vic nng h c DTBKT (+), vic h c vay vn phi
chnh thc (-). Bn cnh , nghin cu cng xc nh c mt s nhn t nh hng n lng
cu tn dng chnh thc ca nng h trn a bn tnh ng Thp. C th, lng cu tn
dng chnh thc nng h c 6
tng quan thun vi trnh hc vn ca ch h, kinh nghim sn xut ca ch h,
vic tham gia t chc on th a phng, tng din tch t ca nng h. Ngc li,
lng cu tn dng chnh thc ca nng h c tng quan nghch vi vic h c vay vn
khng chnh thc, vic nng h c DTBKT. T kt qu phn tch, nhm nghin cu xut
mt s kin ngh sau: i vi nng h: (1) Cn nng cao thc t gic hc tp, trau
di kin thc, khuyn khch v to iu kin cho con em mnh c i hc; (2) Thng
xuyn tham gia cc lp tp hun ng dng cc m hnh TBKT do a phng t chc nhm
tng hiu qu hot ng sn xut, gp phn lm tng hiu qu s dng vn; (3) Cn nng
cao nhn thc v vai tr ca cc t chc x hi, on th a phng, tch cc tham
gia v vn ng mi ngi cng tham gia cc t chc on th c th trao i v gip ,
h tr ln nhau cng lm kinh t, ng thi c th d dng tip cn vi ngun vn
chnh thc. i vi cc t chc tn dng: (1) a dng ho cc hnh thc cho vay vn.
Bn cnh cho vay tng ln theo mn ngn hng nn m rng cho vay theo hn mc
tn dng i vi cc khon vay ln, thm hnh thc cho vay lu v, cho vay tr
gp, cho vay ng ti tr, ... (2) Nng cao mc vn cho vay nhm to iu kin
cho nng h c vn phc v nhu cu hot ng sn xut. Ngoi ra, cc t chc tn dng
cn ch ng tm d n c hiu qu, gip cc nng h hon thnh nhng th tc cn thit
ch ng gii ngn cho vay sm, to c hi gip nng h ch ng thc hin phng n sn
xut ca mnh; (3) Nng cao cht lng dch v: do trnh dn tr ca phn ln khch
hng cn thp, cn thnh lp t chm sc khch hng gii thch nhng thc mc v hng
dn th tc cho khch hng, n gin ho th tc vay vn, rt ngn thi gian phc v
i vi mt khch hng; (4) Cn nng cao trnh thm nh, nng lc nghip v ca cn
b tn dng lm c s cho vic cho vay vn c hiu qu. Cn b tn dng khi quyt
nh cho vay cn hng dn ngi dn cch s dng ng vn hp l, vn cho vay phi gn
kt vi cc chng trnh pht trin kinh t ca a phng, gip ngi dn xy dng
phng n ph hp qun l n v ri ro. i vi chnh quyn a phng: (1) H tr cc
hot ng tn dng trn a bn nh tuyn truyn chnh sch vay vn n tng h gia
nh, h tr cho hot ng ca cc t cho vay lu ng ca cc ngn hng, h tr cng
tc xc nhn h s vay vn ca nng h, h tr cho Ngn hng trong vic cung cp
thng tin v khch hng, ; (2) Phi theo di v ch o cht ch hot ng ca cc t
chc x hi, on th a phng. ng thi cc cp y, chnh quyn a phng cn phi
quan tm n vic pht trin ngun cn b, ng vin tr, pht huy tt vai tr ca i
ng cn b a phng; (3) Cn qun l cht ch th trng cung ng dch v v vt t
hng ha phc v sn xut nng nghip vi chnh sch qun l gi thch hp ph hp vi
mt bng chung ca ton tnh, tng cng kim tra cc c s, i l bn vt t nng
nghip trnh tnh trng hng gian, hng gi, hng km cht lng gy thit thi
cho nng h; (4) Ch ng tm th trng u ra k kt hp ng bao tiu sn phm cho
nng h, ngoi ra cn quan tm u t kinh ph xy dng sn phi, cc nh my xay
xt, lau bng go gn vng nguyn liu gim bt cc khu trung gian trong thu
mua, tng li nhun cho nng dn. TI LIU THAM KHO Flordeliza H.Bordey,
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