Bangladesh Energy

8/10/2019 Bangladesh Energy

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Bangladesh EnergySecurity

Dr. Mohammad Tamim

PMRE Dept, [email protected]


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Oct 12, 2006 IUB

Energy Security

Security

Present Global Energy Balance World Alternate Options

General Energy Security Issues Developing Countries and

Bangladesh Context


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Oct 12, 2006 IUB

Security

the effective monopoly on theuse or licensing of violencewithin a given territory

- Max Weber

(Could be violated from internal or external

forces limited to territorial physical security)


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What has Changed? Environment Security Resource Conflict

Energy Security Nuclear Proliferation Energy resource competition

New Defn of territory (Sea)12, 200, 350nautical miles External (Iraq-US, Japan-China) and Internal

(Aceh, East Timor, Nigeria, Sylhet?) conflicts

Reliable electric grid (US failure) State failure

Energy security has no commonalityand each issue should be dealt withindependently


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World primary energy

consumption

Source:BP Statistics


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Fossil fuel reserves-to-production

(R/P) ratios at end 2004

Most vulnerable is oil

(A linear projection!)

Source:BP Statistics


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Oct 12, 2006 IUB

IEA: Key Energy Statistics, 2003


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Oct 12, 2006 IUB

World Oil facts Produced 1 trillion barrel

Remaining reserve 1 trillion barrel

Undiscovered future resource 1 trillionbarrel (some optimists assumes 3 tr bl)

Total Resource 3 trillion barrel Daily Oil production 85 mbpd

US consumption 22 mbpd (60% import)

China consumption 6.5 mbpd (4% increase) 55 to 60% oil is used in Transport sector


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Oct 12, 2006 IUB

orld Reserves stimates Through Time

Middle East Production: ~130 Gb

Large reservesincrease during

80s oil price crash

Reserves unchangedafter massive production


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Oct 12, 2006 IUB

World Peak Oil stimates

http://trendlines.ca/Economic.htm
http://trendlines.ca/Economic.htmhttp://trendlines.ca/Economic.htm


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Oct 12, 2006 IUB

Alternate (Fossil Fuel) Fossil Fuel

Tar Sand (192 billion barrel)

Hydrates

Oil Shale

DOFF (125 billion barrel)

All expensive but more than renewable? Efficiency and Conservation

Fuel cost for a 1550 mile trip today in USA (CBSNews)

Caravan SUV $258 (18 mpg) Honda Accord $130 (35 mpg)

Hybrid Prius $105 (44 mpg)

6% yearly replacement rate of cars in USA(A 3mpg increase in cars and light vehicles will reduce 1mbpd oil

consumption in US)


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Oct 12, 2006 IUB

1/1400 ofoil+gas+coal

1/1400 ofoil+gas+coal


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Alternate (Renewable) By nature restricted to

Geography (availability of land, wind and sun) Weather (Daily and seasonal variation)

Supplementary role (capacity factor)

Still Expensive but now competitivein limited areas for the high oil/gasprice

Can play a major role in reducing oildependency although not much helpin transport sector


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Oct 12, 2006 IUB

How to deal with it?

Safety and certainty in oil lie invariety and variety only

- Winston Churchill (1913)

Admiral of the British Naval Fleet

Beginning of Energy Security!?


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Oct 12, 2006 IUB

Energy Security (Contd.) Cooperation regional, global

Physical security of the entiresupply chain

Good quality public information,transparency

Technology Driven goodefficient responsible energyindustry, R&D investment

(So u r c e : Da n i e l Y e r g i n )


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Oct 12, 2006 IUB

Bangladesh Facts 6 tcf produced, 14 tcf remaining 2P gas

reserve with yearly consumption of 0.5 tcf

3.7 million ton of crude/finished PP importper year (costing $2 billion @$70/bl)

2.5 million ton diesel, 0.2 million tongasoline

Installed generation 5000 MW, capacity4200 MW, highest 3780 MW (now 2900!)

1500MW shortage of connected loadincluding REB (maybe more?)


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Oct 12, 2006 IUB

Bangladesh Facts Total energy purchase requirement

per year is about 2.5~3 billion dollarsand increasing (roughly 3% of GDP)

IPP power (40%) IOC Gas (30%, will be 40% in 2007)

Oil Import

Investment requirement on averageis at least 1.0 billion dollar per year


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Oct 12, 2006 IUB

Primary Energy

Consumption in Bangladesh Biomass is still

a majorcontributor

Renewable isless than 0.1percent

Hydro capacityis 120 MW(presently 20MW)

Gas

O il

oal

ioma

ss

Rewab

le


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Oct 12, 2006 IUB

Primary Energy (HYC) 7% oil growth?

6% gas growthin last five years

Coal isunaccounted for(1.5 mil ton/yr)

Average GDPgrowth is 4.5%

Gas

(69%)

Oil(24.5%)

Coal(6.5%)

Bangladesh


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Oct 12, 2006 IUB

Bangladesh

Vulnerability Lack of fund

Over dependence on single form ofenergy

Over dependence on single source

Inefficient energy market andregulatory framework

No regional network Lack of timely investment in E&P,

infrastructure (T&D, electric grid,

generation)


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Oct 12, 2006 IUB

Solution Will leave the lack of fund problem with the

economists and resource nationalists, whoopposed gas export but support Tata gasdeal!!!!

Open pit coal mining with all new powerplants coming from coal fired generation

If tripatriate pipeline deal doesnt come

through, should have a bilateral pipelinedeal with Myanmar

Maintain friendly relationship with all

middle east countries using whateverworks (historical tie, Muslim brotherhood,support in all international forum for theArab brothers, sending cheap labors! i.e.

good diplomacy)


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Oct 12, 2006 IUB

Solution (contd.) Market Reform Both private-public participation in oil import and

distribution Pricing not price! Accessibility

Availability

Acceptability Affordability

Based on Cost of service + reasonable profit

Marginal cost Opportunity cost

Subsidy

Regular posting of price/tariff structure for oil,

gas, electricity


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Oct 12, 2006 IUB

Solution (contd.) Immediate investment in reserve

assessment (3D seismic, appraisal drilling)

and a thorough demand forecasting (microlevel)

Vigorous drilling for exploration and

development with clear policy directive Explore possibility for LNG re-gasificationplant (plan B if exploration fails) or gasfrom Myanmar

Major thrust to generate more biomass andefficient use

Supplementary renewable if we can afford

it!


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Bottom Line!

Energy Security doesnt come in a separate package!

So If we cant manage our economy .!

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Bangladesh Energy